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Morning looks wet. Afternoon still probably mostly dry but not enough for outdoor activities.

If you can, years that went into a La Niña, solar max, volcanic, +QBO and -PDO. The AMO is so anomalously positive right now, there are no analogs for that

absolutely s tier weekend on tap with tons of son and lake cooling into the low 70s

Hopefully some bangers next Thursday, Euro/gfs/ggem have a decent look. Also dews/heat

ORH west is dry with at least some sun this weekend. E and NE if there not good tomorrow

Looked mostly like a western New England thing, cloudy weekend for most.

NAM a soaker for Dendy to EMA Saturday with 50’s. HRRR not as wet there, but wet

It appears our 3-6” rain events are better modeled and are of a much higher likelihood now than 3-6” of frozen granules in the middle of the winter. I eagerly await tips insightful explanation as to how that could possibly be in our neck of the woods in the cc era. To me, it’s just baffling how these crazy rain totals are thrown around like snowfall predictions and it seems as if very few people take notice anymore.

The NWS climate sites (abe=Allentown, ilg=Wilmington, acy=Atlantic City) in our area all show warming similar NOAA Chesco and the Philadelphia Airport. We don't have quality sites that differ from NOAA in recent decades. Another indication that he is way off.

Hrrr too. Signal was there at least.

It's straight stupid how anomolous the current 28°C isotherm is across the MDR. I always pay more attention to that as it's really the harbringer of major hurricane potential. As soon as the upper atmosphere begins to settle into more of a late Summer / July pattern combined with La Niña and weakening trades, I fully expect an early onset of CV ASO+ and a hyperactive season.

That said, although things do look ugly right now and I would lean warm, I’m not quite as pessimistic as I was last year at this time for New England. South of NYC yeah it looks really ugly, but New England has more room for error in stronger Nina’s. Latitude is a big deal in SE ridge patterns. Could it flex all the way up to Canada? Sure it can, and it likely will at times. But it can also lead to gradient patterns where those on the north side of the gradient get hammered like 2007-2008.

Yeah 95-96 is not a good analog at all, +PDO, weaker event, east based. I don’t think 14-15 and 10-11 are bad though. I like 14-15 for the atlantic (good solar match, strong consolidated PV), and 10-11 for the pacific (good ENSO match for both strength and structure, good PDO match). I’m not a fan of the way analog forecasting is done and interpreted. Using 14-15, 10-11 etc as analogs shouldn’t mean “Oh this means Boston is getting 80+ inches of snow”. It doesn’t work that way, just because there are some similarities in those years doesn’t mean the results will be the same. 14-15 is a decent analog for the Atlantic, but that was a strongly positive +PDO and a modoki Nino. A +NAO in a weak modoki Nino is a very snowy pattern, a +NAO in a moderate-strong modoki nina is a big warm signal. What Bastardi leaves out is that 2011-2012 and 2022-2023 are great ENSO analogs. AGW also needs to be considered. Bastardi fails to do this, which is a big reason why his forecast always bust cold.

I must have missed the 1 NAM run that had 3 to 6

After looking at the evening guidance, I still have little confidence in a Saturday forecast, although the trend for those of us east of the Potomac seems to be wetter.

i lived out there for a year and a half, girlfriends family lives out there so i go visit occasionally, and DEF moving back in the next few years. SD's weather is wild because that mediterranean climate is in such a pocket between the coast and mountains, in the winter you can drive 45 mins up to julian for snow, or mt laguna which is about an hour away. then the desert on the other side of the mountains offers some crazy summertime weather events like heat and the occasional monsoon. as boring as weather in sd proper can be, its got its little perks. main issue is as soon as one rain drop hits the ground driving becomes a nightmare. ive been on the 5 freeway in north county sd and i swear two rain drops hit my windshield and we slowed right down to a comfy 45mph...

Yeah I’m thinking it gets to around the strength of the 2007-2008 or 2010-2011 Ninas.

We've held -4c in the central subsurface for some time, which implies at least a Moderate La Nina coming. Lower chance, but still possible that it goes Strong.

The 00z NAM already has a potent setup for the day-4 forecast (72 hours, Sunday night)

Remember when that was a badge of honor on the forums? 20 years ago in the mid-2000s on WWBB it was a big win to have the lowest temps, especially during the warm season. My how we’ve all aged and grown up… .

It’s MLB season. The Astros were just playing as scheduled tonight at Minute Maid ballpark, and it looks like they’re gonna win also which is a nice finish to today’s powerful convective action in Houston. Nothing severe there lol 62 kts seems on spot around Houston as most people can definitely lose power at those sudden gust speeds (at least around this part of the country). But the TDS signature on radar and the broken windows on those 2 downtown skyscrapers that @cheese007 posted about suggests there may have been a very brief spinup right around there as the thunder line was moving in (on the leading edge).

By Wednesday we'll be bored by the sunny weather Sunday Partly sunny, with a high near 73. Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 75. Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 77. Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 78.

We're lucky, The CenterPoint grid is not robust in our neighborhood, but we have power. Light flickered while the storm was still well W of here, with near calm winds. I'm guessing the transmission towers out by Cypress going down. Then again when the line hit. But they came on before the rain was even over. Before the second round of severe t-storm winds (not as strong as the first, but impressive) that surprised me because it had almost stopped raining.

Whoever said it's hoodie weather lied...I'm sweating bullets Lol it's humid as hell