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earlier this decade

Jesus. CMC would have been a snow bomb then.

Latest map:

That's the first time I have ever seen then update their maps twice in 2 hours lol.

I agree..there’s not the continuity of precip that we saw on the models. That gap in precip back in Arkansas is massive.

Somehow cmc ensembles ran but anyways their a goooood hit

Morch 93

when is the last time we seen something like this

Largekarentornadoohioan is just one of those people that has to make a scene at the supermarket instead of just taking a hit from the weed pen and going about the day quietly.

Western GL probably needs its own forum for commiserating during our tundra season. Also please don’t come here and kill the vibes. I already serve in that role. There can be only one. .

Does anyone have AI maps that show p-type? The freebies that I can see don't, but I do see our thickness never exceeding 546. One would think the AIs would excel at something like this...lots of history upon which to refer...

And on this when Montgomery county is the farthest north and “farthest” north and west is mentioned, is that farthest Montgomery?

All snow currently in Halls, light to moderate with dimes. No mixing that I can tell yet. Temp was up to 32 earlier, down to 29 currently.

Yes that’s what that usually means.

Tick snowier

Pretty much the same as previous run

It funny how it’s colder in the Triad than most of the NC mountain locations. Heck, Durham is much colder than Asheville

As someone in the industry, it’s not for no reason. Thank energy policy this past decade which pre maturely rushed the closure of coal fired power plants. You can’t replace that capacity overnight, it takes significant investment, much more than any company can possibly shell out without passing on. Luckily, electricity is still the best bang for your buck. It fuels almost every aspect of your life daily, for roughly the cost of a value meal.

Still the heaviest snow I’ve ever seen. 5” an hour, flakes the size of actual pancakes

This storm looks nothing like the models we have been watching or am I not seeing something

Or maybe don’t take things so personally. At the end of the day, it’s just snow. It’s not gonna make anyone’s life better.

This is one of the most widespread winter storms for the nation period. The guy on Fox Weather (Ari something) said yesterday that he's never covered a system this expansive (in terms of frozen/freezing precipitation) in his 20 year career.

Maybe 10” is the boom scenario and 4-8 is the most likely outcome?

1st and probably only call I’m gonna do with this. I could’ve just put a text box that said 10-18” on it and called it a day and would’ve had the model support to defend it. But I am hedging some on the NAM thermals being at least partly right and a bit more sleet intrusion. Not full NAM, but somewhere in between that and the general consensus. These are purely snow numbers, obviously the reduced zones in the southern tier are for sleet mixing, but if that were to occur than sleet accumulations would be fairly notable as well (perhaps an inch or so). The only reason I’m giving the NAM a bit more weight in what is mainly a snowier consensus is strictly its handling of mid-level features and the warm nose. If the snowier consensus wins out, then the whole subforum simply sees 12-18”. Impact wise, that really isn’t that much of a difference.. this is going to be disruptive. I also think top end will be tempered a bit, mainly for speed of the system. Mostly I think there will be a lot of 14s and 15s with some 16-18” reports sprinkled in. It doesn’t look like any kind of a comma head lingers in C-PA to drive widespread amounts toward the 20” mark. What could overcome that is a fast start to the heavier snows when the best snow ratios will be before the mid-levels of the column start to warm later in the event. Both of these points were mentioned in CTP’s disco from yesterday.. which was a good informative discussion.

Wondering if this storm is going to ultimately have the lowest tracking/posting to snowfall ratio ever.