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Lots of brighbanding on radar too. ‘Tis the season.

Most of the rain just missed to the west of here overnight….meh 0.25” and letting up. Gene is pushing 1”.

Yeah you're right about that. Hopefully it is a larger shift rather than a blip.

Quick half inch here. Was coming down. Woke me up.

0.40” so far. Not bad

Big time

Could argue the switch to highs in the 40’s and 50’s this week is a bit of surprise and a shock to the system.

Low of 49 and .16” of rainfall.

A little of thunder and lightning, interesting…up to .30”

0.28 here overnight. Not bad.

You gonna soak

A quick .23” so far in E CT

I too would like to see the MEI, if it ever comes out that is. We are very clearly in a stronger and well coupled La Niña atmospheric and oceanic state than last year at this time

.45", might add another hundredth or two with the last light showers about to move through.

Radar looks like Monday

Hi Roger! Hope all is well with you and yours. It’s great to see you continuing to keep this tradition alive and all the hard work you put into it is greatly appreciated. I didn’t provide a forecast this season for the contest, myself, as I missed the deadline to do so. That aside, it’s highly likely (85%) that Melissa will achieve major hurricane intensity and the probabilities are increasing (50%) that it might even become a Category 5 tempest. Consequently, the minimum seasonal totals are unlikely to be less than 14/5/4, imho. We may get an additional NS and/or hurricane added to those figures but I think 15/6/4 will be the ceiling, at this point. I’ll share that I had 17/8/4 as my definitive June projections for informational purposes. Thanks again for doing this work! Tony p.s. the probabilities listed above are simply my own best estimates at the time of this posting.

.34 inches here.

0z HAFS-B goes nuclear.

That was a nice, quick half inch.

Looks like a +PNA pattern into the 1st and 2nd week of November. We haven't seen a big Aleutian ridge pattern much this year, or really since the 2023-2024 Strong Nino. Before then we were seeing it all the time. It doesn't mean that we won't see -PNA this Winter, but the pattern isn't "the norm" right now, like it was before.

This is starting to get interesting though the 850mb wind anomalies are starting to show an impressive WWB event taking shape. This happened last year as well around late November early December where it effectively put a hold on the Nina growing and helped induce the EPAC warming along the equator with a secondary event taking shape at the beginning of February further enhancing the Nino state in the EPAC. Let us see if something similar is occurring though about a month in advance compared to last year. Here is the TAO data for the last month and a half.

This is just the wake from Priscilla not sure it really strengthens much beyond that. You can still see the wake from Neoguri from the middle to late September just east of Japan.

Congrats @Hazey on that euro run

Melissa has arrived, and the scoring table has been revised again. It now has three potential alternative scores for these possible outcomes: After the scoring on current 13 4 3 ... second column is for Melissa becoming a hurricane. Third column is for a 14th named storm occurring after Melissa, in the event Melissa fails to achieve hurricane status, and also the 14th storm does not reach H. Fourth column is for a 14th named storm and either Melissa became a hurricane or the 14th storm does so. There are notes to explain how to derive other estimates not shown in the table, such as two more hurricanes out of those two storms, and/or one hurricane becoming major. Contest situation is interesting in that about a dozen forecasts stand some chance of winning at this point. If we get a November like 1887, even more would be in the running (I think there were three or four named storms and two were hurricanes in that distant season). The highest I could imagine this count going now is probably 16 6 4, the most likely outcome is 14 5 3.

Well slightly better news tonight: Its 71 degrees BUT that dewpoint is steadily falling, I am watching it fall right thru the 40s!!! It's 42 now. This is a very DRY airmass, it is gonnabe nice and crisp later tonight when I venture out for some delivering. Time for the light coat! If only we had some rain and wind to go with it! I can barely feel it but we have a delightful NE wind at 5 mph!!!