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We're well past the long and mid range for this system, there's a lot of other datasets used in forecasting like real-time observations and forecast soundings, and there coming into play at this point.

Kev... How is the euro caving to the GFS? It's not even close to caving to the GFS. If you've been paying attention, they've been making baby steps towards each other, but absolutely no caving at this point. There was one point where the GFS had everything way up North, but line has been slowly shifting South.

3"-6" seems realistic for Orange County (as for my sister in Milford, PA). This should be a nice event to get the winter season started.

Tired of being on the receiving end no matter the time of year. It’s always the opposite of what we need

Yes boss... ;-)

If I get 1-3", I'll change my screen name to eweather Jr.

18z AIFS went south

Up to 0.47” here, so you’re on target

What? 5% not rain? Now I'm getting interested!

Climo is still really against us in coastal plain first two weeks of December.

ya they aren't good but gives a general idea

SV snow maps are trash

Ambient 2902 is at 0.46" and counting, but it tends to run slightly high.

Good luck to all those north and west. The beat goes on here. Haven’t had a track worthy event in nearly 4 years here

AIFS mean (which obviously has some problems, so take as you will…) for Fri/Sat

The euro cave is beginning

Sorry I meant storm vista. The wx bell isn’t that different than the weathermodels. Some differences on the margins but SV was like a Taunton to Carver jackpot, lol

Advisory should be issued every winter event...since it seems 75% or more don't know how to drive in winter precipitation events.

The hope is the weaker PV and -QBO tips us more into -AO territory for late dec through Jan. That’s when we should get our chances.

If this is any sign of how models are going to interpret future winter storms, it's going to be a long winter with much bridge jumping.

Added 2” today. Being my November total to 23.2” A November to remember for sure.

Maybe more boundary layer temp dependent?

hey guys, hope you had a nice Thanksgiving! Think there’s anything going on with this storm down yonder at MMU? My family and I are awaiting news to see if we can make it town on Tuesday. .

Writings on the wall for this one . I’ve resigned myself to it . I am petrified to open this site tomorrow morning and the first post I’ll see is one from Ray discussing some type of rusty coat hanger after pulling an all nighter

Cool. Where?