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And today we tied the record for the longest the season has gone without a Hurricane in the Atlantic basin. That record should be broken tomorrow and extended quite a ways into the future

I’m thinking the cpc drought holding pattern forecast may be wrong.

May be in a heat pocket but we’ve surged to 98.7 at my house currently. Seems above most other one

Think it would have happened another day most likely....I also think there was a cold front that swept through on the night of 9/10 which helped clear it out

I've got a season pass on the Tug Hill. 300" or bust.

4 inches of rain by Sept. 26 looks wonderful!!

SPC has day 1 marginal risk out for today for 5% damaging winds for west and all of middle TN parts of east TN looks like a wiggle worm lol .

Hurricane Erin off the east coast on this day in 2001. The subsidence around it gave the area deep blue and cloudless skies. The rest is sadly history. Perhaps if it were closer in and we were socked in with clouds and rain things would have been different in some way. They were determined so maybe not. Sad day.

0.21” imby/Columbia this morning.

I could be wrong, but I don't think the full link between Enso and climate was understood or established back then, or the ability to predict Enso states accurately. That might explain at least part of it.

GFS has been trending towards some trailing tail-end energy of the cold front passing through the Northeast on Monday cutting off and drifting southwest under the ridge. The Euro and Canadian are both showing it and trending towards it too, albeit weaker. Certainly couldn't rule out a subtropical type system developing should this scenario play out.

Looks like we will run the gauntlet of misery for the whole month. The advertised cold fronts keep getting push back and blunted. If we get lucky, we might have a few days of normal temps by next weekend.

I found an old newspaper article from October 1982. Remember this came on the heals of a very severe winter in 1981-82 (and the harsh late 1970s still fresh in memory). This article said that forecasters were unanimously calling for a very cold winter in 1982-83. Some were saying it would be the coldest on record in the eastern US and worse than the year before. What a massive fail. It makes you wonder what they were seeing in the first place. Calling for a colder than average winter is one thing but they were extra bold in their predictions. And it also shows how little was known about El Nino as recently as the 1980s.

Temps in the 60's with shwrs/stm moving through. Looks like a decent chance of much needed rains today into tonight.

Random find. I found an old newspaper article from October 1982. Remember this came on the heals of a very severe winter in 1981-82 (and the harsh late 1970s still fresh in memory). This article said that forecasters were unanimously calling for a very cold winter in 1982-83. Some were saying it would be the coldest on record in the eastern US and worse than the year before. What a massive fail. It makes you wonder what they were seeing in the first place. Calling for a colder than average winter is one thing but they were extra bold in their predictions. And it also shows how little was known about El Nino as recently as the 1980s.

Got an update on that storm.

I see the models are showing some very heavy downpours for early Sunday morning. The ground has really dried out here over the last week, so I'll gladly take some rain for the vegetable garden. Hopefully it'll happen.

Here are the charts for each region of the US, along with the US as a whole, for Summer anoms.

Being a half mile north of you must have helped me this time. 0.08" overnight. Noticed leaves falling off trees in my neighborhood. No color let. Guess it is stress from dry/hot summer.

"Nino's"

Some incredible snows over the years at High Knob. The snowiest part of Virginia.

0.00 of rain. Tree line behind my house is fully into Fall mode. Getting some leaves changing.