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Looks like there could have been some small hail near the Jones Beach West End.

Kill off entirely? unlikely .. but, attenuation is getting easier to do with the expanding HC, however. That idea is pre decadal recency, prior to ~ 2000. Since, the broadening/latitude expansion of the HC has been measured and objectively scienced. A larger envelope circulation does not mean a stronger HC circulation eddy. It in fact means it weakens, with increasing observation of perforations/cut-off and/or TUTTs, combined with weakening trade fields.

Getting ready to wash the car so I know it will rain. I’m sure the water will flash evaporate on it today.

Definitely my kind of weather this weekend. Beautiful combo of sun and tolerable humidity with some bonus late day storms.

my neighbors too....college graduation. they got most of the day in though, and the storm was short. but it blew the tents all over.

We stein.

What’s the point of replay if a bad call can still cost you three fn runs? four now. How is this not an out? Gunnar went to tag him and he ran 7 feet off the baseline.

Huge dive in the SOI Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 7 Jun 2026 1014.05 1017.70 -34.73 -19.19 -9.71 6 Jun 2026 1013.94 1016.55 -27.42 -18.06 -9.05 5 Jun 2026 1012.20 1015.15 -29.81 -17.33 -8.44 4 Jun 2026 1010.52 1014.25 -35.29 -16.43 -7.77 3 Jun 2026 1010.14 1013.80 -34.80 -15.47 -7.10 2 Jun 2026 1012.48 1015.05 -27.13 -14.79 -6.56 1 Jun 2026 1013.74 1014.85 -16.87 -14.14 -6.04 31 May 2026 1013.79 1014.20 -14.84 -13.58 -5.64 30 May 2026 1012.24 1014.15 -26.33 -13.17 -5.29 29 May 2026 1011.31 1014.15 -33.46 -12.63 -4.77

Looking at RONI, you can see a pretty clear and distinct El Niño and it’s only June!

I had to clear the beach at jones beach after visable CTG lightning. Just clipped by the core, brief heavy rain and a few gusts in the 30s .

I had to clear the beach at jones beach after visable CTG lightning. Just clipped by the core, brief heavy rain and a few gusts in the 30s .

74/63 under mostly sunny skies at the lake. Beautiful summer day out here.

Yesterday’s thunderstorm chances were a bust in most of the Willamette Valley. This was really been the most boring past year of weather I can remember. No snow or ice, no windstorms, hardly any lightning…

Are we headed for another 2023-4 where SSTs are warm around Australia? Per JB, the models that showed for winter 2023-4 at H5 the mean E US trough/Aleutian low (most of them) didn’t have it that warm there and thus he blamed the unforecasted warmth around Australia.

Yeah, we can go back to last November to see the very beginning of this record El Niño event for so early in the season. The WWB over the Maritime Continent was essentially tied for the strongest on record during the month of November. It began to give that record warm pool a nudge to the east with the record WWBs expanding eastward in the following months.

After a very strong warming the prior 5 days averaging a very impressive 0.1C/day, the latest OISST 3.4 finally slowed its warming although it still warmed slightly (.014). Now that the full week’s data is in, I’m guessing 3.4 will be warmed by 0.3C to +0.8C in tomorrow’s release:

Nice thunderstorm blew up in nj as we were coming back from visiting a family member in hospital in New haven. Pretty good lightning with thunder once in Paramus, nj.

DP coming down. Was 69F a little while ago, now 61F. 81F

I think that’s across all topics on social media. There’s a lot of misinformation out there.

Was supposed to rain today? Currently at the yankee game and got soaked. Fire boone!

The MJO ended up going strongly into phase 8 (see image below) after all despite models a couple of weeks ago going only modestly into it and extended ensembles a month ago turning left in 7 toward the circle/missing 8. Bastardi back in April predicted W Car/Gulf TCG in June based on his expectation the MJO would go into 8 despite the extended ensembles not showing that. He more often than not predicts early activity. So, that’s not unusual. But he was right about the MJO. Will he be right about the Atlantic basin June TCG? Models/ensembles are hinting at the chance for this late this week:

Drought

The amount of wind we have had this spring has been absolutely annoying. It seems like every day is gusting 15-20+ mph.

Nice. Sometimes we get our best storms on these slight 20% chance days.