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We just had a shower at the house. The high today was 73. This morning the low was 55.

There was more SAL when 91L was around. That has cleared out an area, where 92L is at right now. There is still some ahead of it, and a big blob behind it. But where it is right now it is in a good spot. 92L also has a lot more convection than 91L ever had associated with it. 92L still will need to have that dry air ahead of it get out of the way, or it will fizzle out as well IMHO. No closed circulation that I can pick out with my untrained eyes. blob:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/75019b3b-06c8-416d-8b72-d0c8bb3da341

After a cooler than normal first half of September in New York City, the second half looks to be warmer than normal based on the latest weekly guidance and ensembles. This development is consistent with the temperature trends since 1980. The second half of September is warming notably faster than the first half.

Been pretty warm the past few days and a light shower today. 80s every day the past 6 days.

I'm surprised this coastal low off NC coast isn't going tropical.

That’s where I fish, off the eatons neck coast guard station. Good fishing out this way by that rip.

Highs: PHL: 85 EWR: 83 ISP: 82 TEB: 81 New Brnswck: 81 JFK: 81 TTN: 81 LGA: 80 NYC: 79 ACY: 77 BLM: 76

Saw some pockets of decent color on my drive to Willmar MN today.

Hmm, I think global warming coincides with less low level clouds and clouds in general. This is why it was always surprising to see global precipitation increase, and precipitable water. It makes sense that warm/dry would be the trajectory, but for the last few decades more moisture has happened by a lot.

Ok thank you

It is very dry and dusty here in southern MI. I took the day off and went apple picking with a friend. Apple crop is plentiful but not sure about corn here. I do know that color is well ahead of schedule.

two yamaha 115s, 25 foot 1986 whaler, my friend is the original owner...built to last. we've been beating ourselves up for 40 years....we had enough gas and plenty to spare. we did bring an extra ten gallons in case we had to run to the stacks, that's where all the fish are, but that's getting far for us. but we go far down the jersey shore too; there are no fish left in raritan bay just the fall striper run. so we often have to go to the shrewsbury rocks or the mud buoy or the donut, where the old ambrose tower was. needless to say, the marine forecasts can really mess you up when the get it wrong; and they often don't mention big swells from offshore storms, which can make you sick in a hurry. we also will fish coney island and the rockaways if the fish are there.

That’s a very long ride. Did you refuel on the way back? What size boat/engines?

yeah we really thought we had wasted the day until around 1 pm, when it laid down. i mean, ya gotta admit that was a long boat ride. raritan river to the arthur kill, kill van kull, ny harbor, east river through hell gate, and into the sound...and we still had to go a little distance in the sound as well. but it was still better than sitting at the gw bridge for 3 hours....or getting stuck on the cross bronx.

No. There's a different dynamic involved. Because the Arctic warms faster near the surface but the tropics warm more in the upper atmosphere, wind shear is increasing at cruising altitudes, leading to more clear-air turbulence

Does this have anything to do with the increase in turbulence?

Summer is def over in the Roan Highlands. Avg temp for the first 15 days of the month is 59.3. The last few days have been seasonably cool.

With rising temperatures, cloud formation is occurring at higher altitudes. Thinner, high clouds are becoming relatively more common. Those clouds are idea for allowing in solar radiation and then slowing its escape. The thick stratocumulus clouds are become less frequent, yet it is those clouds that block out a lot of incoming solar radiation. This data is consistent with paleoclimate records and more recent climate modeling.

The marine forecast have been crap all summer. It’s always windier and rougher than forecast

Awesome! Let's keep it going.

2022 was odd in that it ironically had the 10th highest Sept ACE of the current active era with way over the active era Sept avg ACE, but it also had the 3rd lowest ACE for Aug/Oct combined of the last 60 years behind only the super El Niños of 1997 and 1982.

Man everyone skunked thru Oct there. Gonna get ugly in fire season with dry leaves , warm to hot fall and wind

Hail to the King

Yeah that's in the back of my mind, but I think the distinction here is the much larger moisture envelope and ability of this one to keep up convection. Environment looks pretty favorable for development/intensification in the subtropics too, which worked well with Fernand.

ENS keep a re-loading a +EPO for the rest of the month. If nothing else were to factor in, that would keep the mild/warm temps in place.