All Activity

Thank you for the exaplanation, I've been out of the loop for awhile. I figured it must have been better than documenting squirrel activity haha

My crappy PWS says 43.5. Closest other one says 45 which is probably more reasonable.

At 6am, 31F air, 31F dewpoint. Second straight morning of 100 percent saturated air. Headed for 80F next four days, then it looks good for a good dousing. Ahh, finally...variety!

One of my favorite types of days. Gonna light up the fireplace.

30 years averages will take longer to catch up with the shorter term changes. But DCA has only averaged 7.8” over the last 9 seasons. We’ll have to see if the next decade declines a bit more or holds closer to the 7.8” figure. They had been at 17.4”for the previous 9 season period. This is their first 9 year stretch with an average under 10”. Their highest 9 year run was 29.9” back in 1912. Monthly Total Snowfall for Washington Area, DC (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.0 0.2 0.3 5.0 1.5 0.9 T 7.8 2024-2025 0.0 T 0.1 8.3 6.5 0.0 0.0 14.9 2023-2024 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.8 0.1 T T 8.0 2022-2023 0.0 0.0 T T 0.4 T T 0.4 2021-2022 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.3 T 0.9 0.0 13.2 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 T 2.6 2.8 0.0 0.0 5.4 2019-2020 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.2 T 0.0 0.0 0.6 2018-2019 0.0 1.4 0.0 11.5 3.7 0.3 0.0 16.9 2017-2018 0.0 0.0 1.9 1.2 0.2 4.5 T 7.8 2016-2017 0.0 0.0 T 1.4 T 2.0 0.0 3.4 Monthly Total Snowfall for Washington Area, DC (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean T T 2.6 5.5 6.5 2.8 T 17.4 2015-2016 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.8 3.1 0.3 T 22.2 2014-2015 0.0 T T 3.6 9.8 4.9 T 18.3 2013-2014 0.0 T 1.5 6.6 11.2 12.7 T 32.0 2012-2013 0.0 T 0.2 0.9 0.4 1.6 0.0 3.1 2011-2012 T 0.0 T 1.7 0.3 T 0.0 2.0 2010-2011 0.0 T 2.1 7.3 0.5 0.2 T 10.1 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 16.6 7.4 32.1 T 0.0 56.1 2008-2009 0.0 T T 1.9 0.1 5.5 0.0 7.5 2007-2008 0.0 0.0 2.6 1.3 1.0 0.0 0.0 4.9

Pretty much the same crap that's going on in Mass...

44.6

46

Battery costs are declining along well established cost curves. This ongoing cost decline is hammering the competitiveness of fossil fuels. Cheap batteries mean solar and wind are no longer intermittent and transportation is readily electrified. This article shows how battery-electric trucks will quickly become more cost-effective than diesel. This is being driven by China which has recognized the long-term strategic opportunity. They are electrifying their economy to reduce oil imports and sell increasing amounts of high value gear to the rest of the world. Meanwhile our leadership is in denial. Doubling down on outmoded energy technology. Going to be tough to be competitive if we are uncompetitive in energy. https://www.nature.com/articles/s44333-025-00029-5.pdf

Cleaned and serviced ours last weekend, and ran it for an hour this A.M. 36 degrees in Westfield this morning

Looks like GON and IJD with the first 30s for CT. 50 for the low here.

Bluewave has posted about how a very cold Siberia creates a contrast with the very warm water off Japan which fuels the raging Pacific jet which we certainly DON’T want. So it’s a more complex relationship than “Siberian snow cover is always good”.

1st 30s since mid may

Unfortunately, the later research has suggested that a higher Siberian Snow Advance Index (SAI) is correlated with a positive AO. The research notes that the early inverse relationship found by Cohen et al., was an exception, not a rule. Excerpts: The running decadal correlations between the SAI_OCT and AO and SAI_NOV and AO are shown in Fig. 7d and e, respectively. In the former, there are significantly more positive than negative values (Table 3), suggesting that the period of strong positive (negative as defined here) correlations that occurred in the 1990s and 2000s, as described by Cohen and Jones (2011), was a rather exceptional event, as previously noted by Peings et al. (2013). Indeed, the frequency of decades with significant SCA_OCT–AO correlations of either sign are not significant. In addition to the recent period in the 2000s, Fig. 7d reveals a period of significant negative correlations centred in the 1840s, also present in the 21-year data (Fig. S4d). Finally, the ERA5 data reveal that the recent period of the statistically significant negative relationship between SAI_OCT and the AO has ended: the most recent decades have positive r values.

What a September down here on the sound. +3.2 for HVN. 4th warmest September on record.

Yes, but you need the snow too and you are gonna get it.

Yeah, we need the rain.

Winter is champing at the bit in the Sierra!!! Snow is falling at altitude at Mammoth Ski Resort. Looks to be 2-3 inches now on the ground and even pavements! These places have surface chillax characteristics for preconsolidation and possibly even some limited surface frigidization. Snowpack can now be seen on the ground at the Woolly Cam and also at the Main Lodge. Woolly Cam https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam Main Lodge https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/main-lodge Lights are out but reflectivity/surface albedo are way too high for that not to be at least an inch of wet snow, possibly 2-3 inches, enough for a meaningful jebwalk. Snow will continue even as temps dip to 30. Village Level is all rain, it can be seen in the puddles. That rain is at least moderate. Imagine the snow at higher elevations! Village level, steady rainfall https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/the-village Palisades Tahoe has a coating to an inch at the Scope, which is now the only camera operative there. https://www.palisadestahoe.com/mountain-information/webcams#tab=palisades

It’s 48.4° here this morning. Dare I say it’s cold for early October

This -AAM regime is extremely impressive. A 180 degree difference from what we were seeing last year at this time…

The eastern lemon has excellent model support for development but will be another recurve

Have you seen the last few years of winter here? Like I said I'll take any help I can get.

At least there’s some signs it may turn more active mid months. Little bit of -NAO on EPS and op runs sort of showing the results of that.

Current temp is a cold 43 degrees.

__ Table of forecasts for October 2025 __ FORECASTER __________ DCA _NYC _BOS _ORD _ATL _IAH __DEN _PHX _SEA Ephesians2 ____________+4.3 _+3.8 _+3.5 _+5.4 _+4.0 _+3.6 _+1.0 _+1.3 _ -0.5 Roger Smith ___________ +3.5 _+4.0 _+4.3 _+5.2 _+3.5 _+3.5 _+2.0 _+2.0 _+1.2 StormchaserChuck1 ___ +3.2 _+3.5 _+3.5 _+5.7 _+2.9 _+2.5 _+0.5 _+0.2 __0.0 RJay ___________________ +3.0 _+3.5 _+3.5 _+5.5 _+2.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 __0.0 __0.0 DonSutherland1 ________ +2.5 _+2.6 _+2.5 _+5.4 _+1.7 _+1.7 _+3.2 _+2.6 _+0.2 wxallannj _______________+2.3 _+2.4 _+2.5 _ +2.0 _+1.8 _+2.3 _+1.0 _+0.7 _+0.4 hudsonvalley21 _________+2.1 _+2.1 _ +2.1 __ +3.2 _+1.2 _+1.8 _ +2.1 _+1.9 _+0.2 ___ Consensus _________+2.1 _+2.2 _+2.3__+3.4_+1.7 _+1.9 _+1.3 _+1.1 _+0.5 so_whats_happening __ +2.0 _+2.3 _+2.4 _ +3.5 _+1.6 _+2.1 _ +1.4 _ +1.0 _ +1.6 yoda ___________________ +1.8 _+1.4 _+1.3 __+2.5 _ +1.7 _+1.8 _ +1.3 _ +1.9 _+0.3 BKViking _______________ +1.6 _+1.7 _+1.7 __+1.7 _+1.5 _+1.2 __+1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.8 Tom ____________________ +1.5 _+1.6 _+1.6 __+2.8 _+1.5 _+1.1 __+1.2 _ +1.1 _ +0.5 Scotty Lightning ________+1.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 __+1.0 _ +1.5 _+1.0 __+1.0 _+1.5 _+0.5 wxdude64 ______________+0.6 _+0.7 _+0.3 _-0.2 _+0.8 _+0.5__-0.4 _-0.2 _+0.7 RodneyS _______________ +0.1 _ +1.7 _+1.6 __+3.8 _+0.6 _+3.0 _+1.6 _+0.6 _+0.9 ___ Normal ______________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ___0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ___0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _______________ ___ Persistence __(Sep) _-0.2 _+1.4 _+0.9 _+3.0 _+2.5 _+1.2 _-0.1 _+1.0 _+1.5 _______________ ============== warmest and coldest forecasts are color coded; Normal is colder than all forecasts for DCA, NYC, BOS, ATL and IAH. Consensus is median value of 14 forecasts (not counting Persistence which is Sep 2025 anomalies, or Normal).