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The 18z HRRR is beautiful

Afternoon Issued Winter Weather Index

Sleet bomb for mby.

This is actually great news for me.As much as I love snow, I don't want to see any until after Dec 23. Every day it snows before that I lose several hundred dollars. I'm never on board with early season snow. If it snows I'll enjoy it, but it's better for me, and my clients if it holds until later in December.. That said, I don't think cpa will make it very long without some unforeseen winter weather surprise this month.

I'd certainly like to know this as well--and why we've seen more of this kind of progression in recent years. Is there something going on with the pattern itself?

What about for SE PA?

New HRRR coming in hot for mountains/foothills.

Looks like the Northern Green snow machine will be on for a couple of days,

They showed the 6z euro valid over the next few days. Check H5…there’s no PV. EC at 2m still tends to underestimate highs a little bit with sunshine.

That +PNA is interestingly getting subtly more jacked with passing runs. Much more and we're dealing with bigger cold off-load at continental scales. Euro was very +PNA a week from this weekend. It keeps the total a little less amped in the ridging over the west, otherwise it's probably digging that S/W more ...

Zip zero

It will take smith with a $30-$50 million yearly commitment to save us Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

What did the 12z Euro show for Friday?

Up to 6" here, still coming down.

Is there another large area of high pressure off the northeast coast preventing this cold highs eastward movement and plunging it almost due south.? Or a 50/50 type low too close to coast and blocking any eastward progression?

NWS bumped up totals from this morning.

The 12Z EPS is hinting at a 3rd NC snow threat on 12/12 with measurable snow from 7 of the 50 members, mainly from lows that move just offshore:

We need to do whatever pegula wants cause he is the only one with the money to save us Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

The CMC OP was brutally cold at Day 9, opposite of the GFS. Curious what the GEPS showed

Solid base to build on.

meh

Awesome work! That winter storm archive you put together is fantastic work and much appreciated!

To be fair … if the current Euro op verified it would probably mean the coldest December since 1989. Nothing over 40 at KBOS, more time below 20 than above 30, average around 23 (monthly climo is 34, first half of the month is 37). Dry, would probably mean some dry snowmaking ponds but some very happy ski areas (especially if the atmosphere could squeeze out some natural snow. GFS had it warmer out in clown range, and clown range doesn't hit Grinch Range anyway but we have to factor in 57° on xmas.

That mid month torch is looking more and more flaccid each run of the EPS/Euro. GEFS are still trying for it for several days but I’ll say that the EPS has been taking the GEFS to the woodshed in the medium/long range over the past few weeks.

12z ECMWF says not so fast