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6 seconds in and already rubbing the north pole https://x.com/i/status/1959377950404465146

We had a 100% chance of rain today and I didnt see a drop

If one ever needed additional demonstration that some of the loudest social media influencers who deny climate change lack critical reasoning skills, below is one example: Look closely at the Time story's date: August 18, 2025. Now look closely at the influencer's counterargument: "Banana production reached an all-time record high in 2023." Yes, he's arguing that because banana production hit a record some two years earlier, there could not possibly be a shortage today. In other words, the situation could not have changed. There is nothing to support the assumption at the heart of his flawed conclusion. Let's take a look at how flawed this reasoning actually is using a weather example. In spring 1985, New York City was in the midst of a drought emergency. Applying the same logic, the social media influencer would have declared, 'I cannot spot a drought. Can you? Precipitation reached an all-time record high in 1983." 1983 Rainfall: 80.56" 1985: Drought Emergency As noted previously, social media influencers are bad sources of weather or climate information. In fact, in many cases, they are bad sources of information (no attributive nouns required). In this particular example, one can see how a lack of critical reasoning capacity impairs the social media influencer's ability to reach a sound judgment regarding bananas. The social media influencer is blind to the reality that dramatic changes can occur over even short periods of time rendering past data irrelevant to a current situation. Indeed, I suspect that it is often that inability to reason critically coupled with cognitive biases that plays a crucial role in making it impossible for social media influencers and many others who deny climate change to reach sound conclusions based on the evidence. Hence, there is no level of sufficient evidence that can alter their positions. They will reject the evidence that diverges from their preferred position regardless of how overwhelming it is. On the other hand, they will eagerly embrace conspiracy theories e.g., claims of data manipulation, that support their positions. Back to the Time article, it does not say that there is an immediate shortage. It is forward looking (which also makes 2023 data irrelevant to the future scenario covered in the article; critical reasoning empowers individuals to distinguish essential data from distractions, filtering out irrelevant details and concentrating on the information that directly shapes and influences the issue at hand). The article states: Affordable and nutritious, bananas have long been a supermarket staple for consumers around the globe. But that could soon change, as climate change is contributing to a global shortage of the world’s most consumed fruit... Two known diseases, Black Sigatoka and Tropical Race 4, are already present in key growing regions around the world, including Colombia and Peru, and experts expect that further spread of disease will have a large impact on supply over time.

The subsurface accumulation of warmth is really off the charts. During the winter there was a trough east of Japan. But the SSTs weren’t able to cool much with so much heat below the surface. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/ocean_briefing_gif/global_ocean_monitoring_current.pdf

Yeah it’s fuels both hurricanes and the temperature differences that power nor’easters. Without the Gulf Stream the weather in the northeast would be much more mundane.

I’m not sure we crack 80 today. Got up to 79.4 but have fallen about a degree since. Been pretty lockstep with RDU but I think they hit 80.1 last hour

This actually got me thinking a bit, I was reading an interesting article recently talking about how the Gulf Stream helps keep Europe warm and highlighting concerns about a weakening Gulf Stream. Conversely, I assume that if the Gulf Stream weakened significantly and ocean temperature were not made hotter as a result of other climatological changes, that this would actually reduce the number of very powerful storms hitting North America? Is the logic sound here? .

Going to be a pretty one - enjoy. I will if UT wins, if not it'll suck ha

Besides the south shore blizzard, what memorable storms? mild winters, heat and drought have been headlines.

This is a pretty incredible story. The wx out west is nothing to play with. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/08/27/weather/lake-tahoe-storm.html?unlocked_article_code=1.hk8.AL5L.IIiQurcDmo5X&smid=url-share

no bias at all with that guy.

Happy long Labor Day weekend all. Chat next week.

Where's the love button....... Don't answer that

Markymark trying to take the last remaining scraps of Scoot’s degree away from him

Global Warming.

Forecast to be a terrible day of rain and cold temps (16C/61F), it just rained in the morning then the sun started coming out around noon slowly. Blew right past peg high and flirts with 21C/70F! Pavement even dried up.

Clouds in the way today

dry conditions will aid higher temps

Through yesterday, we are now at .4 above average for the month around here. Tomorrow will be well below average and the lows around here for sure will be below average the rest of the month. The highs might be too but Sunday might be close. I think we’re going to end the month slightly below average with the low temperatures leading the way which has become quite unusual in recent times.

It sure looks like our Fall weather will continue into mid September. The models are suggesting multiple potentially strong cold fronts pushing in with the next reinforcing shot arriving later next week. I believe it is safe to say summer is over as the daylight gets shorter!

Well reviewed. I can’t quibble. Main thing for favorable decent event is a southern short wave separation from northern Jet, eventually shoving northeast. That option is still there if it’s weak then not so good for rain. WPC starting to show rainfall D7 and CPC with new 6-10 D outlooks etc around 3-4p

I can't remember the last time I had my windows open for four or five days in a row in August in the mid Atlantic... ever. The last time was probably when I lived in NW NJ in the 1990s (where a typical summer day would be like this and I lived largely without A/C).

We're going to get a lot of snow soon. Maybe it'll be this winter. Maybe it'll be the next. I don't know how we're going to get it. I don't know when we're going to get it. But I'm sure of two things--we're going to get hammered sometime soon. And we're going to love it.

Walt (or others) - would be interested in your take on 9/6 in the SNJ area adjacent to Philly, as our son is getting married there that day and hoping to do an outdoor ceremony (it's at a working farm) followed by an "upscale barn" reception. Not too worried about rain, as there is an enclosed space next to the barn if it rains, but would love it to not be hot and humid. Right now the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC forecasts look like normal to maybe a bit below normal in temps, but normal to above normal in precip. Obviously, those aren't predictions for a specific day, but I am happy to see no major heatwaves on the horizon and the last few deterministic model runs (GFS/Euor/CMC at least) show some significant rainfall on 9/4-5 clearing out for 9/6 with seasonable or below temps, but 9 days out we all know that that timing can change, but all things being equal, I'll take it for now. TIA.

made a poll