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0z EC AIFS ticked up, warnings to south shore Excellent trends at 0z so far

Big dog cold signal continues

Looks like the Euro is also correcting west.

Good morning everyone. I hope you are all doing well. So I have the My Lightning Tracker on my phone and over the past few months when there is nothing in the area for Lightning - my tracker goes off near Hume, VA (mainly to the South and East) / Fauquier County. It happens randomly like today's instance had one strike at 5:52 am and then this evening around 7:47 there were two strikes detected. Does anyone else have this on their phone and seeing the same thing? Obviously the question being - what the hell is it since it is not lightning? Thanks and take care. Ohh yeah... Go Bills!

AI euro has 2-4 inches for NYC.

Rates (precipitation per hour) are actually modeled to be fairly high. Modeled FGEN is significant across several models. But total precipitation is relatively light due to the short duration. Several models including the GFS deliver over 0.3" liquid over 4-6 hours in or near our region. A few models even have greater than 0.5" liquid nearby. That's a fairly significant QPF signal for short-duration frontogenic banding. The forecast difficulty is that the modeled placement of this banded feature (CT, LHV, CNJ) is highly variable. Forecast temperatures range from the upper 20s to mid 30s across our region with NYC roughly 31F to 35F depending on model during precipitation. Wetbulb temperatures are a little lower and modeled surface temperatures dropping during precipitation. Notably the HRRR is warmest, particularly after precipitation ends Saturday afternoon. NYC will probably record a minimum temperature below 33F on Saturday.

AIFS is more amped

I read that 5 days in it has very high grades.

But the main thing? Stj waking up That's my bar for now until we get closer to a threat because that could mean we get opportunities

euro will stubbornly not budge in my opinion until tomorrow night!

Seems like the night shift has given up. Just a few of us interested. Overall very good trends at 0z. Let’s see if the euro gives some love.

Looked promising, but precip heading toward us is washing out. Anyway, enough with this shit ass 300hr pbp. See yinz for the Euro

God I love this panel. Look at that literal textbook depiction of warm occlusion with the rain surrounded by intense snowfall. Just a wonder meteorologically.

It’s above average over the last 20 years for mid-January. Plenty of QPF too. We have had some tough seasons over that time. Just like SNE. But this year has produced somehow.

Just a bit of a 50/50 low.

Yeah, that wave is gonna try it, but....watch it be rain when it gets here. What a hobby

@BxEngine@Rjayanyway one of guys can change the thread date to Jan 17-18th

Dude, come on. That's a sucker bet. Of course it's going to lose it.

Lifting out at 270...wave in the middle of the country might be tried to amplify. We are analyzing the GFS at 270. Times are hard.

2 bucks says the Euro loses next weekend. But I'll have to see if I win or lose tomorrow because I'm done for the evening. Nothing to keep me awake so far.

Yeah it is, check out that ocean effect snow

i don't think euro caves, this is like juno all over except its the west trend that wins instead of east. euro caved 24 hours before the storm started

That beast is just killing us. squash and suppress machine. Luckily, prob won't turn out like this

947mb Maine

51 on IRC and ne.weather to 55 on wright-weather to 79 now.