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A slight bump upwards in totals, too.

55 / 41 some light rain working its way in. After many tough or reach low 60s tomorrow much cooler/colder the next 4- 6 days.

While the “trend colder from mid-range” tendency is fun if it continues, the “trend drier from mid-range” needs to be remembered as well.

We haven’t been able to bet on El Niños or La Ninas near NYC over the past 7 winters with how strong the Northern Stream has become. In the old days some of my heaviest snowstorms were during El Niños back on the South Shore up to 2015-2016. These days you really want elevation and latitude in the Northeast.

I should be in line for a nice snowpack refresher/boost with this one. Have models taken into account the snowpack that will be laid down across MN/WI tonight? Perhaps that will drive the baroclinic zone a tad south for the Chicago peeps. Never underestimate WAA though….

An excellent call once again

Euro AI still quite south.

Agree that EV's are not out competing oil in the US. They are outcompeting in China though, and those cars will spread as volume production increases both in China and in plants being built by Chinese companies around the world.

This front tomorrow is looking "fun".

Day 3 is when I’ll start to believe something has a chance. Anything beyond that is meh

The above noted colder GEFS trend for early Dec continued with the 12Z run.

Canadian was cold, Euro running now.

December 2010 is the only one that's reasonable. At least that happened in the newer climate. (It's not a good analog, but due to other things... like near solar min and strong la nina, features we don't have this year. Maybe it could work if we have a strong la nina in place in December 2028, when we're closer to a solar min.) December 1983 is an older, colder climate. Not likely to happen unless we have a Pinatubo event. (83-84 actually would have been a very good analog for 95-96.) December 1989, well, that was a once-in-a-lifetime event. A coldest December on record, followed by an early turn to spring (and never looking back) is almost certainly never going to happen again.

1000% agree...

Agreed. Juice it up

Ya know, this wasn’t far off to northeast North Carolina considering

UKIE stayed south FWIW. Is the Canadian delayed?

December 3

I agree with you. Ya, just trying to get reasonable and accurate info is all. It’s tough when some folks say things are slipping away, just looking for a MET to chime in and reassure them that it’s not. That’s the BS nobody needs.

December 3

soon we'll get randy's pbp

Can’t believe it’s only a week out! Definitely our first realistic window with pattern support (and ofc the cmc is delayed)

Definitely aggressive with the waa. Curious to see 12z euro

For the weenies out there. I got the windows wxstar 4000 simulator setup on my computer. I just need to get the playlists going. Now I won’t see a +SN ob all season. Screen Recording 2025-11-25 120356.mp4