All Activity

I see some OE enhancement near S Weymouth

There’s going to be a warm layer aloft but it probably won’t be significant for anyone in SNE but there’s a very real possibility NYC gets brief snow then goes to sleet. what the warm layer aloft will mean to us is where that warm front ends up residing and how strong exactly is it. Northeast of this is where the banding, snowfall rates, and ratios will be enhanced.

I think all this flip flopping we're seeing with the models is them trying to simulate where the heaviest banding sets up, rather than how far the warm nose edges in. Given all the trends today so far, there's little change in temps aloft. For nearly all of us that we stay below freezing up to 700mb until the wee hours of the storm when precip is winding down. All these jumps north/south are figuring out the heaviest bands. Lift vs subsidence. Someone's gonna be sitting under a weenie band, and someone 10 miles north or south is going to be screwed.

Don, I think you know that's not NAM output. That looks like Pivotal 10:1 "clown" map. NAM produces liquid precipitation output and a vertical temperature profile. I believe it also generates a ptype. I recall it did pretty well on all three. Just because you get 0.2" liquid with mostly snowflakes doesn't mean they will accumulate. That's not the NAM's fault. That's user error.

doesn't matter what it is.. it usually works

Question…I’m not expecting much snow in the Berks County area, but it’s strange to see many of the maps which show the ice storm to the west and snow to the east. It makes it seem like it’s basically nothing here. Is the QPF actually less, or is it just that the sleet makes it seem less overall. To be honest an inch of sleet is a mess worse than a few inches of snow in my opinion. .

And it did. Virtually no snow even for the Poconos. Amazing that we’re less than 24 hours out and there’s this much disagreement. This is the definition of a nowcast event.

When it comes to how far the mid level warmth gets I don't ignore it because as others point out it's closer to accurate most of the time. And soundings do get dicey for the city from 0-3z especially, that 750mb warm nose will mean business. Even my backyard gets very close to changing to sleet. If we see good snow surging into eastern new England, NYC very likely changes to sleet. The block has to shove this south in time. But no I don't think it's gospel and I've seen situations where it overdid the mid level warmth. However it's probably closer to right than the colder models and I don't buy for a second that a storm like this will drop good snow from TTN-PHL with a 700mb low in upstate NY.

Me pants are off

Looks like a CT special with scraps out east.

This isnt a swfe event. Can’t use that logic.

I'd hit it

JB was honking about this earlier on a WB post. Hopefully it comes to fruition.

3k is sweet

NAM is far from ideal but at least it improved.

Ughhh sucks cod soundings still aren’t working for mobile

Yup, it trimmed back on the northern fringe but actually looks better for most. I’d would rip even up to Boston for a time.

Accuweather just jumped me from 3-6 to 6-10. I think everyone needs to calm down.

if its showing a warm layer its a red flag.. good luck though

Nice

The models saw this current nationwide warm spell coming, and it happened. The NE seaboard was definitely spared the worst of it, but we can't say the warmth didn't verify.

we koochie

but not with storm tracking

Plowable all of SNE