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Reggie has been consistent. I’ve noticed models are still shuffling with the ULL too. Gonna be some small shifts I think.

And to reference my earlier post about this being the coldest day at TRI since 2015...

The 850 temps are marginal, 2m temps are good depending on your location and the 500mb & 700mb temps are cold.

Chuck said screw your thoughts and analysis, and double screw that groundhog, it’s OVER!

Reggie gone wild

Yeah this doesnt look like a narrow area of 3-4" while everyone else gets flurries....seems like there's enough lift for a general light snow to give a lot of folks 1-2"....the question is who gets 3-5". Prob a few enhanced areas do. And yes, people may not want an inch or two, but that has nothing to do with the forecast.

The NAM is trying to sneak a little in tomorrow:

Here is the photo of S Holston Lake. A picture is worth a thousand words.... It not uncommon for high elevation lakes to freeze during cold winters in NE TN. It is quite uncommon for TVA lakes in NE TN to have that much ice in my experience.

Twenty below possible? That’s not a weather alert, that’s a medical thriller. Frostbite in thirty minutes means I’ll be counting to twenty nine and going back inside. Cancel all outdoor ambition. If anyone needs me, I’ll be wrapped in cashmere, monitoring my extremities like a NASA launch.

congrats scooter on 3k gone wild there

While I get your point, I think it will be more than 1” for many

I mean it’s a nothing burger for 90% unless you get into one of probably 2 enhances areas. I think he, along with others, would happily pass on an inch of nuisance snow in mid Feb. I truly feel like it’s unrealistic to expect widespread 2-4” from this

MRX graphics for the weekend....

A+ post

Solid A+++ here. 18" of snow plus a very cold January, that's 2 years in a row for cold and snow ( 5" last year ) and February off to a cold start.

Portions of E TN mountain counties, some areas of SW VA, and mountain counties of SE KY are under a winter weather advisory for tomorrow as we are set to see what is hopefully the last cold shot for a bit. I need a break from the cold, and you won't hear that very often from me. We have just recently been BN(sometimes severely so) during our coldest climo of the year. TRI is at roughly 10" of snow so far since Jan 11th. Places around Nashville are still without power from the ice storm almost two weeks ago. Road crews and schools need a break. I know some places in NE TN have run out of salt. I would guess Feb will end up possibly AN due to the thaw next week, and the month being a short month. I had a warmer Feb as part of my winter forecast back in June - so part of me hopes it is slightly AN. However, the last ten days of the month could return to colder temperatures which might last into the well into March...However, as Jeff notes in the banter(?) thread, I don't think severe is out of the question. Often in our forum, severe weather and winter weather can coexist in the month of March.

I can’t see him even reading this thread or caring for this meager amount of snow. Lol. I just want a refresher.

CTP did update wind talk this afternoon. Prepare for the coldest weekend of winter with wind chills 20 to 30 below zero possible/likely early Saturday morning. We expanded the extreme cold watch to cover the rest of the CWA and extended in time; however we would anticipate a warning and/or advisory to be issued in the next 1-2 fcst cycles. The lowest wind chills occur early Saturday morning, but remain below zero through Saturday afternoon before dropping back to double digits below zero Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Blustery winds may exceed advisory criteria (>40kt) especially over the southern half of the forecast area on Saturday; a wind advisory may be needed. Blowing and drifting snow is also a concern given the dry snow character and gusty winds.

Thanks for the in depth stats. I think everyone agrees there was a warm period over the holidays, but this is a forward looking thread so let’s take it easy on the past details.

Lol... Thanks Scott; I thought it was some special run of the AI... When I saw Will use the term, I though it must be legit... I'm familiar with Terminator, but did not make the connection...

Yeah, I was thinking the same. We really didn’t cash in with the cold air but it’s still capable. A inch tomorrow and a nasty cold windy weekend is alright by me… 31f @ 3:50pm…doesn’t look like freezing will happen.

definitely need to know what we at EasternMassWeather are thinking. @40/70 Benchmarkmust be enraged reading this thread so much ammunition for him in here

Not much time left with the NAM's and SREF

This was 12z Ukie