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Guess my severe thinking next weekend is getting crushed..lol

We waited until 72 hours. The 0z runs before the thread opened had already gone downhill. It was started at 12z yesterday

And all the sleet That storm was annoying even as it turned out to be great. Hours of sleet in the middle. Could have been damn near 3 feet here instead of 20" or so. Can't recall the exact total.

Cream puff mentality. So sad.

Another theory is always trying to find a way to justify why the snowiest models are correct

Think small. If I get 2" out of this its the biggest event of winter. WPC had my yard at about 30% as of this morning, and 70% of >= 1".

Many of the posters on here live near the coast. The event for tomorrow will primarily affect interior areas. The one for Sunday if it happens will be a coastal event.

You saying rain for Sunday or Saturday Im guessing you're talking about 2 things at the same time?

the old weather channel tower mn boiling cup of water trick

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Albany NY 1236 PM EST Fri Jan 16 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 9 inches. * WHERE...Portions of northwestern Connecticut, western Massachusetts, eastern New York, and southern Vermont.

That's irrational modeling by the EURO. With excellent radiational cooling, maybe. With a 13 mph wind and 76% cloudiness over Augusta, 0 ain't gonna happen.

The reason I’m focused on Sunday is because it seems to have greater potential for my area. Doesn’t look like much accumulation or possibly all rain for me in Suffolk county LI

PSA for the columbia/bmore crew.....Sapwood has 3 new BA Stouts out today.

You’re welcome

Correct

Yea buckshot. Exactly. I’m painting with CPC brush here… Which one? — it’s this one… I ain’t picking and choosing runs here either. Pretty much all major guidance has had some variation of this over the last day or two and you can see the signal faintly on the ensembles…

A theory to explain the AI vs GFS/ECMWF battle could be the latent heat release - wave development feedback loop that Eric Webb mentioned a day or two ago. Shortwaves that tap Gulf moisture are susceptible to this effect. If this is biasing the global models too flat aloft, it could explain why the AIs are further west since they can bias-correct based on historical outcomes.

makes sense - thanks!

Currently doing January keto to get my brain back in the right mode of not eating/drinking everything in front of my face, so bourbon and vodka/flavored seltzer for me. Yay snow!

If this subforum is Hogwarts, you, sir, are Gif-findor.

Probably less frozen? confirmed.. “Lake Michigan is the last of the Great Lakes to freeze due to its immense depth, size, and stored heat, resisting full ice cover even in severe winters”

Probably more like congrats Jacksonville and Orlando

Pattern looks great coming up y'all! Let's reel something in.

Too early to punt, maybe try a FG