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"Wet" as in intense rates, which is true considering it falls in about 12 hours. Temps between 700mb and 850mb surge during the day on Sunday and no longer support snow by Sunday evening for much of the forum. It's a high impact event but shorter in duration than some other models.

Oh man, are they in for a treat! You are in an excellent spot too for this one. Any good places to stay around your parts by chance? I am really looking into a chase out in that direction.

Hecs

This has some excitement factor IMBY as well, the kids have never seen more than a 6" storm yet.

I looked very closely at this and at the very end it actually has the freezing rain ever so slightly further south than 18z and temps a touch colder.

Euro shows a hecs

That's a sad look for Sunday night. Mid-levels too far NW resulting in a persistent primary low and no lift for our area.

What's the timing with the Baja energy and north vort that is required for a transfer like the GFS Look at the 500mb rh% between GFS and euro at 12z For 00z, 06z Monday Time ordered, GFS first Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

EC continues to support initial snow thoughts on where the heaviest will occur. I may have to adjust my 10” line further southeast, but there’s time! I need to make it out to the WV Panhandle for this thing. It looks immaculate out there for this one. Anyone want to take in a meteorologist? I’ll bring some booze @clskinsfan ?

Ive been wondering where Richmond goes. It doesnt seem to fut into the SE group and this forum ignores it as well. "Central VA" typically includes Richmond but you wouldn't know from maps that ignore it. FWIW, the models have consistently transformed most North Carolina into a skating rink. Now up to Richmond. I do think northward trend of ZR has stopped.

I’m not expecting much to happen Monday think most of it is over by Sunday night

00z EPS-Ai are pure nudity.

I’m assuming we’ll see winter storm watches posted by Friday evening?

Hopefully it'll be mostly sleet as the warm layer is pretty high up allowing for a ~5k foot cold layer that maybe deep and cold enough to refreeze raindrops before they hit the surface. I saw this skiing at Mt. Tremblant where it was 15f at the summit with freezing rain while ~2000 ft below in the village it was a heavy sleet storm.

Its the slowest at arrival of precip. Looking at mby and the microclimate...the GEM has the most realistic temp response for what its worth...with way the temp advances off the Skyway.

Euro was almost identical to 18z, the heart of the CAD actually was a touch stronger and several locations ran about 1 degree colder through most of the precip. In MBY (Hickory) we stayed below freezing for 99% of the storm and zr totals were 1.71" and the FRAM est was 1.10".

drier than the others around here

Euro huge dryslot after initial thump which mitigates hours of junk

Updated

Euro looks like it wants to finally override that CAD. Looks like SN/Slop to Slop to Rn.

It would be interesting if DCA outdid PHL, NYC, and BOS in terms of snowfall due to a stronger and longer initial overrunning. I doubt it mostly because of likely better ratios up north and possibly some tack-on snow at the end. But I guess it's possible.

Once again 10-15”