All Activity

I am also noticing at tendency on the 12z GFS to include split flow with the -EPO.

I can’t resist this all timer… ⏱️

The 0z GFS loses the feedback over Baja and looks a lot like the 18z AIGFS. Let’s see how the rest of 0z goes, but they are trending colder as John has already noted with the AIGFS.

It will never end thanks to the SE Ridge. And we're up to almost January 15th.

Looks like a cutter parade

So far, this winter has been "wintery", just in a somewhat frustrating manner. I expect a decent January.

Let’s get herpes.

Are those numbers up to date? I know the official Albany snowfall is up to 23, not 19.

Ya low went from Kansas to Ohio lol

The run to run changes are comical

Gone. Huge block into the Arctic. -EPO, +PNA, cross polar flow from Siberia.

Viagra?

Gfs slowly pushing the Jan 9/10 system back SE.

How's it handling the Thorn in the NEPAC ? Is it showing a weaker Trough there ?

idk… 1-3” area wide this evening, another D-2” tomorrow.

We are so back

Lol 6" right over me and only me.

The 00z AI GFS is even colder than 18z. Looks like it has a powerful frontal passage that plows through the moisture for some anafrontal snow, then a clipper reinforces the cold and brings a 1-3 inch type snow across the area. Single digit temps in its wake.

The wind only allowed me a couple hours of sleep last night after tree crashed in neighbors yard so I made a pot of coffee and made great progress on my project. I have daily indicies values for NAO, AO, PNA, GBI, ENSO, SO, MJO for 1950-2025 that all have been standardized for 1950-2000 period. The last 3 on the list took forever due to having calculated them from raw data. Once I found NOAA data documentation it was manageable. I also have Harrisburg raw data from 12/1/1899 to present. I standardized it over same period while smoothing according to NWS policy. I just started running ungodly statistical tests involving lagging correlations but the main point here is I have lost a lot of faith in MU. So much of the final outcome here is basically down to timing luck and mesodynamics but that still doesn't take away from teleconnection stacking the deck some going through his Twitter history he doesn't like to put his cards on the table until the time to do so is way over, nor does he explain in a logical coherent manner before the fact why he thinks what he says. It's alwAys later using post fact rationalization using data, events, facts that one arent really related to teleconnection. He's basically dipping into that mesodynamics, timings, whatever else whitch brew to let his prejudice be known. Because here is the kicker. He doesn't treat other months of the year anywhere like he does winter. Probably lowering .confidence overall in him for winter months by 25%. Just because our luck factor, climatology speaking with snow is poor, isn't a reason to hide behind it. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Sleep lmao

850s are kind of shot though. Tricky balance for this one and we’re already playing behind. I’m cautiously unoptimistic (pessimistic?) but what else is there to do

Gfs always slow to change look at that non event last week when the gfs was showing a big sleet storm till inside 36hrs. Model sucks

Cmc went way north though

Report of 3” in Findlay. I think the NWS might’ve swung and missed on this one, roads were not good at all coming home from BG. They’ll probably wind up with around 2-3” from these bands