All Activity

http://CPAWEATHERLAB.COM/SWITCHBOARD.COM UPDATED UPDATED UPDATED **Climate divisions tab** This tab uses NCEI climate-division data: averages built from station observations for 344 regions of the lower 48, from 1895 to August 2026. No reanalysis is involved. - **Map a season across all 344 divisions.** Maps temperature, max/min temperature, precipitation, degree days or any Palmer index. You can map one month or season for one year, a list of up to 30 years averaged together, or a run of years. Show it as an anomaly, standardized anomaly, mean, rank or percentile, against a base period you choose. For precipitation and degree days, a season's value is the total, not the monthly average. For a season that crosses the new year, you enter the year of its last month; the page converts it to NOAA's first-month labelling for you. - **Time series for one division or state.** Gives one division's or one state's history from 1895, as monthly values or one value per year for a season. You get a plot or a plain-text table you can save. Anomalies are switched off for single divisions because NOAA's are wrong there; they work for state averages. - **Which divisions follow a climate index?** Maps how closely every division's seasonal values track one of 30 indices, such as ENSO, NAO, PNA, PDO, AMO or a plain trend. The index can lead or lag by up to 12 months or seasons. The slip tells you roughly how large a correlation has to be to stand out from zero with your number of years. **Daily & special tools tab** - **Follow a pattern through time (Hovmöller).** Plots time against longitude or latitude, averaged across a band you choose. It shows wave trains, blocking and the MJO moving. Data runs from 20CRv3 in 1836 through R1 to NCEP's operational analysis, which is current to within a few days. - **Regional event maps at 32 km (NARR).** Makes daily or 3-hourly maps from the North American Regional Reanalysis, 1979 to August 2026. You can frame the map on one state, like Pennsylvania, or a custom box. This is PSL's best source for recent events now that R1 has ended. The page asks for a 0.3° plot so the 32-km detail isn't smoothed away. - **Values at one point; find record days.** Pulls daily or 6-hourly values from ERA5, R1 or 20CR at a latitude and longitude, or from a daily climate index. It can plot the series or its distribution, or list the N most extreme days in a season (up to 300), or every day past a threshold. The page catches NOAA's bug where a western longitude silently becomes a point in Spain. - **Map where a field correlates with an index.** Makes a correlation or regression map of a seasonal field against an index, using any of 33 WRIT datasets. You can detrend both series and have the index lead or lag. It shows where a climate mode's influence reaches. - **Trace an air parcel.** Runs forward or back trajectories up to 15 days through reanalysis winds at one pressure level. You can add a box of neighbouring starting points to see how much the path depends on where it starts. Use it to see where a moisture plume or air mass came from. - **How unusual is a day? Distributions.** Gathers every day of a season at one point (from R1, 20CR V2c or PRISM precipitation) or at one GHCN station, and shows the distribution with its deciles and a fitted curve. It can also give the probability of a value you enter. - **Stratosphere–troposphere wave flux (EP flux).** Draws Eliassen–Palm flux arrows, with divergence or the implied acceleration, from R1 or ERA5, averaged over 1 to 30 days. It's the standard picture of waves driving the stratosphere, useful around sudden warmings. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

While there (once again) could be sig flooding & runoff issues over the Edwards plateau and hill country regions later this week/end and downstream runoff into STX in the coming weeks (esp. influence from remnants of Hurricane Polo and even TS Rachel out west), Fall does also look to actually move into the state for the first (full) week of October and on schedule. Including some below normal temps with widespread 70s (afternoon highs) over the northern half looking likely now Oct 6th - 8th.

CPA Weather Lab https://cpaweatherlab.com TAKE A TOUR!!!! https://claude.ai/artifact/3hPJ2tTBfYqULiavQzXZ7U#cf7995a2-237f Most people check the weather, see “60% chance of rain,” and continue living productive lives. I apparently took that as a personal challenge and built an entire weather laboratory to determine exactly where the other 40% went. CPA Weather Lab has live radar, satellite, river gauges, severe weather, surface observations, ensembles, climate records, storm archives, and enough historical data to turn a perfectly healthy interest in weather into something your family quietly refers to as “the website.” The forecast section is particularly useful if you enjoy watching certainty die in real time. Thirty-one GEFS ensemble members begin with roughly the same atmosphere and gradually wander off in different directions like relatives trying to agree on where to eat. You can watch the spread grow, compare consecutive model runs, examine precipitation and snow probabilities, yell at models that have personally offended you, and cackle at yesterday's model run once observational data arrives and exposes its lies. This is meteorology, where screaming “THAT IS NOT WHERE THE LOW IS GOING” at a computer screen remains technically unpaid peer review. And because merely yelling at numerical weather prediction models seemed far too emotionally healthy, there is forecast verification. The HRRR makes a prediction, MRMS observes what actually happened, and CPA Weather Lab keeps the receipts. Hits, misses, false alarms, bias, CSI, probability reliability, lead-time degradation. The model can confidently paint two inches of rain across half of Pennsylvania, reality can put it somewhere else entirely, and the next day we can gather around the statistics and quietly cackle over the evidence like deeply maladjusted meteorological raccoon goblins. Today's beautiful model solution is tomorrow's row in a verification table. Then there is the historical side, because sometimes today's weather is disappointing and you need to investigate whether people in 1914 were also disappointed. Harrisburg records stretch back into the 1800s, alongside snowfall histories, drought analysis, storm catalogs, climate rankings, station records, radar tools, and enough obscure meteorological rabbit holes to make “I'll just check one thing” a statement with absolutely no credibility. Nothing restores perspective quite like spending an evening researching a 117-year-old precipitation event because something about Tuesday's rainfall seemed suspicious. At some point I realized I had essentially become a weather raccoon: awake at unreasonable hours, digging through NOAA's enormous data dumpster with both paws, dragging home anything shiny labeled radar, reanalysis, snowfall, or precipitation, and then becoming strangely territorial when somebody suggests I probably don't need another dataset. The difference is that a normal raccoon eventually gets tired and leaves the trash can. I built search tools for mine. There are tools for examining radar coverage because apparently knowing that it is snowing is insufficient when you can instead calculate how many thousands of feet above your head the lowest radar beam is passing. There are river gauges because rain eventually becomes somebody else's problem downstream. There are weather-station tools because spending hundreds of dollars measuring rainfall naturally leads to wondering whether the rain gauge is lying to you. And there are climate tools for those special evenings when you would rather rank 130 winters than interact with another human being. CPA Weather Lab is also a web app, so if merely visiting this thing occasionally isn't enough commitment, you can install it directly from your browser on your phone, tablet, or computer and give it its own icon like a normal app. On Android you can install it through Chrome, on iPhone through Safari's Add to Home Screen, and desktop browsers such as Chrome and Edge can install it too. Then it opens full-screen, because apparently what your phone was missing was immediate access to river hydrographs, ensemble spaghetti, radar beam heights, and more than a century of evidence that Pennsylvania weather has been doing this nonsense far longer than any of us have been alive. This whole thing exists because weather refuses to behave like the tidy numbers in a forecast table. Models disagree. Gauges disagree. Radar misses things. Snowfall measurements become arguments. Rivers ignore county boundaries. Ensembles abruptly discover seventeen different futures. A model that looked brilliant at 00Z can become an object of ridicule by breakfast. And somewhere in central Pennsylvania, I will be staring at the screen yelling at it, then returning twelve hours later to cackle when the observations confirm that, yes, the lying bastard really did move the storm 150 miles. Instead of accepting any of this like a well-adjusted person, I kept adding datasets. So CPA Weather Lab is basically what happens when “I wonder what the weather is doing” goes untreated for long enough and the local weather raccoon gains server access. Now you can install the condition on your phone. https://cpaweatherlab.com Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Are you 90?

Eh personally I don't want a slippery game on Sunday 'cause rain games suck...so I'll root for the fail this time, lol

Yea 2m temps are tough over the arctic, typically you want to look at 925mb for temp anomalies to get better look at the overall. So average to below average for most of the time period over roughly 75N to the pole.

I started following the model consensus of 2m temps for the high Arctic regularly since May. The majority of the time through early August they initialized with a mean of BN fwiw.

This is something you certainly do not see very often in this warmer world, especially in the confines of the Arctic. It was a solid retention year to say the least. Whether the temps are representative or not the overall pattern would suggest things didn't go haywire. It was a shame we started at such a low point from the previous winter which is weird coming out of La Nina to see such low volumes for sea ice. Will be interesting to see how this plays out going into winter.

It would be fascinating to see happen as it would be a very 1982-83 style end.

Temperature here in Eastern North Carolina fell like a rock when the nor'easter approached then moved through. It's only now starting to get back to "warm" (by our standards anyway.)

Man I didn't realize the lower/outer Cape got pretty screwed rainfall wise.

I'm inclined to go overall milder than average due to the obvious; strong mainly east based Nino. I, like Jeff and also the usual outcome of Nino Winters, expect late Winter to offer more Winter Wx opportunities. However, there may be some surprises in December if what some Other's in the Field are making note of. Bastardi mentions that in a Tweet tonight on his X page ,The American Storm.: "Starting to see other folks picking up on the endgame idea. This tweet was from Sept 10. Also, an important link to some cold in the Thanksgiving-to-Christmas period in the East. Given the December blowtorch modeling, that would be something. Remember it has to do with the MJO being favorable for the tropics in Oct, then rolling back around 40-60 days later. Point is AI's and human forecasters picking up on it". The record warm December of the strong '82-83 Nino actually had a major Snow storm the 11th and 12th. A light snowfall the 21st. So, even the warmest Dec on Record produced normal to above average snowfall. The strong Nino of '97-98 had a measurable Snowfall the end of December. 5 inches recorded in Pennington gap. Much more in the higher elevations.

2.92" total for the last 4 days with some drizzle this evening. Nice event to welcome fall.

It’s more of we’re once again having a modeled wet pattern completely collapse overnight despite having a big precip event. See also the end of this past May.

Thanks for posting about this. After reading your post, I decided it would be worthwhile to check out another forum (which includes other pro-mets): https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php I read hundreds of posts in their “The 2026 melting season” thread. The first post I saw mentioning the unusually cold DMI 80+ N temperatures was on 5/25/26 (post #268) on the following page (p. 6) by very experienced pro-met Niall Dollard: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4507.250.html Niall said, “I suspect we will see a rapid increase on the DMI N80 graph in the next day or two, as that deep low advects warmth into the general DMI N80 area near the pole. Unusually, the daily mean has been below the 1958-2002 mean for much of the month of May.” ———————— Then go to p. 9 and look at post #474 on 7/16/26 from pro-met Glen Koehler in here: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4507.450.html Glen said: “The DMI 80N values are unprecedented. I looked at every annual chart for 1958-2026, and no other year has such a large and prolonged period of below 2C temperature during June and July.” and ”The 2026 DMI 80N chart is so anomalous that it makes me wonder if a sensor or data processing change is affecting the 80N chart in summer 2026. Anoother possibility is that the slushification of the ice near the North pole is creating a different relationship between ice and 2M air temperature.” ———————— Then @TheClimateChanger, who you may recall used to go by “Frivolous” here, posted in #490 (also on p.9) as “Frivolousz21” on 7/18/26 as a reply to Glen: ”It's not from an error. It's just that there has been a relentless PV anomaly and essentially next to no unimpeded solar insolation. It's been pretty crazy. This might end up the best year for ice retention since 2006.” ———————— I went through the rest of the thread and there never was agreement on the cause. So, it remains a mystery there. I respect your knowledge and appreciate your post on this. But I plan to continue posting these DMI graphs at least until if/when there’s strong agreement in the overall pro-met community with you that 2026 really isn’t as cold relative to past years as the graphs show. —————— Today’s daily update had another sharp cooling (~1C) from yesterday keeping it colder than the blue line’s climo: I just looked at the model consensus and it is, indeed, solidly BN N of 80N. However, those same models are showing significant warming to AN very quickly. So, I’m expecting it to go back above the blue line within just a couple of days at most.

The red and green mix this year is wild.

I’ll eat my words.

there's merely a one letter difference between rainfall and rainfail

Pictures don’t do it justice, it’s absolutely magnificent