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Probably just a classic GFS head fake

I saw the gfs and it was somewhat interesting, but euro sliding SE makes me think it’s all a dream, per usual

extended still p sleepy but rife with mood dusters

GFS agrees. At least the coast of NC doesn't go without a storm this winter. They seem to do better than the Catoctins and Carroll County in the past 10 years lol. The GFS wasn't terrible. It gives us some scraps and crushes the Tug Hill. Going back Jan 20th for a week.

Except mid January, as was outlined last fall.

Wasn't there originally a coastal? That idea is long gone. Now we are just hoping for a quick change over and accumulation. Upside potential is probably limited to under an inch best case. Hardly back from the dead.

6z update on Sunday/Monday threat .. GFS NW moderate hit for ENE, EURO ticked SE, AIFS NW - light to moderate hit ENE

But La Nina is dead!!!!

Yea, I've been on the big-finish train. You have to think it starts up soon...probably when the MJO hits 7.

GFS in the extended range reinforces my thoughts going forward. A couple dustings here or there, followed by cutters. Warm wet, cold dry.

Whoda thunk it? Looks like we are back in play for the MLK storm. At least the coast is as of now.

Some CAD going on this morning. Was 39 at home and frost here at work. Probably around 33 degrees.

What’s that old saying again? Dont trust 6z or 18z runs because they don’t use fresh data? I know there was something in the weenie handbook regarding that. I forgot the chapter and page though.

Back in the game for Sunday. GFS and UK bring snow back to Richmond. More for HR. euro still needs work

Well after the fake -NAO tease for early Jan .. We all said Jan 15th period was possible but unlikely, the first real threats would show up Jan-18 on beyond .. It's still the case even though Jan 18 is still very low probs and next week looks boring for now..

6z euro says congratulations coastal Carolina’s and gives them 3-6”.

Location is also extremely important for where these anomalies exist. https://atlas.niu.edu/gwo/ While the tropics are exerting more of a El Nino flair which may very well be enhancing some of these cold dumps horse to mid latitudes have not yet caught up.

We still have a lot of work to do with this storm. I think as we move forward every storm track and intensity will be dependent on the other.

Insert kicking the can picture

That’s almost there another 100 nw and more expansive snow shield we are in business. I don’t think we will know until the baroclinic zone sets up as the trough burrows into the east and the cold front clears the east coast.

Totally. We need to see lots more before there's really any interest

Im not a fan of cherry picking charts. I remember rather well that CDAS 3 years ago during the Nino event was showing SSTs in the moderate to low end strong sector (roughly 1.3-1.5C above average) when almost every other (OISST, ERSST, CRW, etc.) was showing the waters near upper end strong. Now we use it to show La Nina? Come on with that. Honestly if you are going to show these types of charts in either picture stick to one source.

Could be a situation where something big shows up on models, then gets iffy, then slowly comes back. Happens a lot.

Lastly all ensembles are ideal post that overrunning threat next weekend..