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Now see...I get storm 1 failing--it's messy. But c'mon man I hope we can get something off off storm 2. If we get zilch from both will be annoying even with lowered expectations!

There’s some definite interaction there, just don’t think the chances are high it happens like that.

A secondary mamxima on the Delmarva with a min just se of i95 is definitely a weird outcome Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro XL using Tapatalk

Lol. If only these were slam dunks like the 2010s but it’s the 2020s so we chuck em from half court…

Storm 2 a fail on Gfs. Canadian might have a shot at something better.

I’ve seen this kind of thing before… You get kind of a bowing back west and the pressure field with a lot of cyclone out east at this range, but then as you get closer, the western solution ends up taking over. This is similar to that, but it’s just doing it with a system that’s progressive so it makes it kind of weird looking Take away being that it’s possible this is just the hurry up and wait for the W solution to start winning. But that wall of convection erupting over the g string off. The coast is definitely robbing this thing.

Seems like it’s being influenced by the low off the west coast of Mexico? .

A strung out mess would have less issues with a thermal profile………. so there’s that. lol

Just posted what I think is related to that limitation it’s… Pretty clear that is stealing a lot of dynamics

GFS-AI is a little worse again. It looks like we're still firmly in a wait and see mode. Still really big intermodel and intramodel (ensemble) variability. Huge spread for 4.5 days out. Way too few big QPF solutions for my liking.

usually when you have a vort of that intensity at that latitude it’s a nuke. truly incredible

You can see this premature ejaculation erupting off the southeast coast prior to the best amplitude/DPVA approaching the M Atlantic… This thing is basically starving because of that blow off going on off the coast That’s just the solution. I’m not sure I believe that.

Not sure why it’s wanting to take the energy for the second storm in the base of the trough and send it SW through TX creating what looks like a strung out mess. I still think this one has potential, but I don’t like what it’s doing at 500. if the ridge on the west coast was tilting to the northeast I could see energy doing this, but it’s a really nice ridge so I think the more reasonable solution would be to swing it through. I could be missing something, but this is what I see.

The GFS would be just about perfect for most of us if it came to pass. First wave buries the east side, the second is nice 3-5 inches for the west and still added 1-2 inches over the rest of the state.

It just doesn’t have that SW energy like gfs that digs in.

Don't hate it as long as it nuisances south of me. Mid atl can have the road salt blizzard.

I think odds remain low for a snow event with this storm but at least there's something to track

Wave 2 is a dud per GFS

I just don't think the larger scale features are in place.. temps are too warm/borderline. I would go with mostly rain, 1-3" snow upside. +EPOs in the medium range Ive seen so many times are underestimated, the surface warm air. The trend goes more cutoff, probably mid 30s or a degree or two above freezing. Without more northern stream interaction the low doesn't bomb as much.

It's interesting how different the CMC is from the GFS and ICON. The CMC completely lacks the intense follow up shortwave that drops from MN to TN and explosively amplifies the trof. On the Canadian the shortwave and its vorticity is closer to the Lakes and connected to the PV. It this feature on the GFS isn't real, the exotic solutions disappear. Heck even with the GFS evolution we get fringed. I love tracking these types of potential events for the excitement and drama, but they usually don't produce widespread snow.

Ya might catch a squall.

Not a very good solution… I mean it’s interesting meteorologically but for the purpose of why people are in this forum it’s not very good solution

Cmc is a missed/failed phase. Plausible scenario

Yea. Escapes east but close. Don’t hate it as long as euro ticks better.

The second wave is also big on the GFS. The Canadian sees none of the first wave.