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I hope we get a surprise inch or two of snow to make up for yesterday's nothing burger This can't be it for the season....as bad as it is in this death valley there's got to be a little more to squeeze out of Mother Nature. End of the week looks horrible

tracking heat

Wild

It's poor timing on the season, really This hemispheric super synoptic layout/behavior could have very well set up in Dec or Jan or early in Feb, but instead by happenstance does so in March, when the climate clock and solar recovery are not only ticking... but, time seems like it is speeding up to Old Man Winter. Just sayn' This pattern doesn't scream "end" to me though - all three major ens systems hitting this hard. Overnight EPS for 300 hours PV on our side of the hemisphere with -2 SD anomalies anchoring over the Canadian archipelago means that cold is aplenty. Whether it delivers in the right times and spaces to be involved in events at our latitude? It won't be because winter has intrinsically ended, it means being bent over and sore butted by chance ... those are different predicaments to suffer. LOL. Either can certainly happen in March. My suggestion is just to keep your "expectations" sufficiently lubed at all times such that when chance invades your dignity it won't be as painful. I will say though .. part of keeping expectations in check, notice that this PV is underpinned by modest +anomalies? Those anomalies are actually "potentially" much higher, but the PV being of greater magnitude is compressing the heights to the point where it masks that potential. But that potential is going somewhere and it is converted into velocity (U component) of the westerlies... consequentially being higher than normal. Speed isn't an auto 86er on chances... but it does cause needle threading this, as well as sheer reductions in amplitude that.

I got this steel ruler thats divided into 10ths which is great for measuring snow especially in smaller events so you dont have to guestimate or round. It's on amazon for about 20$ real weenie stuff

rough

The colder global temperature sweet spot ended with the 1997-98 el nino. Temperatures jumped with that super el nino, and have never went back to the pre-1997 baseline. Pinatubo was most likely the reason for the colder global temperature sweet spot.

Correct-no rug pull here

Nope. Let it snow until April. This has been a great winter. Last year would have also been great if suppression wasn't an issue. Maybe we are turning the corner here in regards to cold and snowy winters.

HRRR-Hardly Right Rarely Right

FGEN! (I have no idea if its helpful in this setup)

You are not crazy, pivotal does that for some reason. Maybe because the scale adjusts slightly for each run to better fit all totals but idk edit: actually it is not changing the bar length at all so I guess it’s just something with how pivotal processes the gif

I feel like the snowfall color guide on the bottom changing colors. I didn't get a lot of sleep last night so that might be it

Went from 3.39 to 4.49 a/gal over the weekend, and I'm due for a fill up on 3/11. Fun times Lets get this warmth in here.

Pretty disappointing to see winter end this week if that is the case. I'm sure we'll see some more chances after Weds along with a bit of cold, but once the pack is decimated I'm read to move on. I thought we'd be safe at least till 2nd or 3rd week of the month, but such is life.

Looks like a few inches up here.

if you believe the RRFS, that band will be legit lol.

Uh oh.... P Sunny 6.6

Back to weather... started a thread for Tuesday/Wednesday

thats the 12z nam and whats wrong with this?

Models suggest 1-3" of snow, sleet, ZR before transitioning to all rain for south of the MA -VT/NH border

Not a surprise not a rug pull. Also consistent w WPC guidance.

It's imperialistic ... tough shit And anyone that says shit like 'above your paid grade' is trying to elicit toeing the line. Everyone alive has a moral imperative/responsibility to understanding the reality humanity creates, and act accordingly.

The winter of 2025-6 had only 18 of its 90 days with a WPO >0. That’s the lowest # of days since the very cold winter of 1962-3, which had only 11 (lowest number of any since 1948-9). 1956-7 had only 16. So, 2025-6 had the 3rd lowest. I think 1967-8 is in 4th with 21 of its 91 days >0: https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/wpo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

Prepare for drought busting and shorts in December