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Pink is winter storm warnings. Blue I beleive is for the frigid temps

Mt. Holly & Wakefield forecast for central and lower Delmarva

They did a lot of clearing after Helene up on this mountain but there's still too many trees near lines for me to feel comfortable at all. I am usually the last one to get stressed or paranoid about things but that forecast has me both.

Out at DCL right now, WSW for 12-18" just came out. 45mph winds too.

Wow. Just woke up to the good ol’ NAM.

ICON should slay

Eastern Shore is covered by Mt. Holly and they haven't issued warnings yet

I know that this may be me wishing it... But there have been many many storms in the past where the modeling said a change over was going to occur, but never did. Would be nice if this was also one of those times. Models are walking that very narrow line where the change over occurs

There is a weird dry slot. Thats why the totals were lower. All the models trended better so far.

I noticed that too. Sleet/mix line stalls and then creeps south, presumably with the coastal transfer. Too late for anything meaningful for the DC metro but close. Also, like the NAM, would only take a small south shift in the stall point to cause a meaningful change for the metros. But a solid run regardless.

Classic. Send him down our way for a blessing.

It also largely depends on the rate of precipitation. If it is pouring rain, it’s not going to freeze. However, if it’s light rain/sprinkles, it will freeze pretty quickly after contact.

UMBC, UB have announced they are closed Monday. Ok Coppin, you're up.

Is pink the warning? Because that’s covering everywhere but the eastern shore.

Also not to rag a on a local met - but Doug K is not known for being the spitting image of 100% reliable

Pretty solid depiction

If the overall storm evolution is shifting in a better direction that’s all I really need at this point.

One man’s trash is another man’s treasure. Sadly for some…

Also, compare out west to 6z on this model. More compressed on the western edge which pushed the primary a bit SE which is a trend we want to see continue. A definite improvement over 6z IMO, regardless of the snow map or sleet line depiction.

This insane 6Z GFS would triple the modern day record (back to 1870s) of biggest snowfall in this area and would be the biggest since a similar one on March 3, 1837. Suffice it to say, the odds of this 10.3” day 8-9 snow (on ~1.1” qpf) coming even close to verifying are infinitesimally low. This is best treated this far out as one of those random GFS runs doing extreme things on the Gulf coast/coastal SE. Only 8-9 days of NW trend to deal with lol.

The models are dramatically better than they used to be. They are SO good that people now get pissed off and frustrated/disappointed when the storm they've been tracking for over a WEEK gives them just several inches and a sleet bomb instead of a foot or more. You know how remarkable it is that they can do this? The difference is, 15 years ago you wouldn't even KNOW there was a potential storm until a few days beforehand, and the amount of granular data like snow maps and soundings and whatnot simply wasn't widely available to you or me or anyone not a meteorologist. Any perception that the models are worse somehow is just that: perception. It's in your head. They are verifiably, objectively, and irrefutably dramatically better than they were even a relatively short time ago.

What's the ICON accuracy typically like at this range?

Seems to be doing a great job resolving the topography here. Especially the catoctin ridge running up between Frederick and Washington counties

Wow that's a lot of warnings! And advisory's at one time!! Covers almost a lil more than half of the United States!!!

NAM is complete insanity here. Would easily be 18+