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what are you thinking now for your hood?

It’s been a couple days since reading it, but this afternoon is when the northern energy would be in good sampling range. Fingers crossed that there are some positive changes.

"Compared to 24 hours ago, it is close to 10 mb weaker from the strongest reading it had in previous runs." -Surely not?? Just what we need, mountain wave with 0.5" of ice accretion! Woot woot!

It’s interesting how our coldest temperatures low temperatures during the 2010s and 2020s were during our warmest winters. The early February 2023 cold was in a sea of warm. Same story with the only below 0° in NYC during the 2014-2015 winter. It’s funny that the back to back cold winters of 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 couldn’t produce a below 0° reading in NYC. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb lowest temperatures Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2025-2026 16 38 2024-2025 10 0 2023-2024 17 0 2022-2023 3 0 2021-2022 10 0 2020-2021 14 0 2019-2020 14 0 2018-2019 2 0 2017-2018 5 0 2016-2017 14 0 2015-2016 -1 0 2014-2015 2 0 2013-2014 4 0 Monthly Data for February 2023 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY CARMEL 4N COOP -10 CT OXFORD WATERBURY WBAN -9 CT DANBURY COOP -7 CT GROTON COOP -6 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN -6 CT DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN -5 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP -5 CT GUILFORD COOP -5 NY SHRUB OAK COOP -4 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN -4 NY MATTITUCK COOP -4 CT GROTON NEW LONDON AP WBAN -4 NY PORT JERVIS COOP -4 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP -3 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN -3 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN -3 NY WEST POINT COOP -2 NY ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP -2 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP -1 NY WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 0 NY BAITING HOLLOW COOP 0 NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 0 NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 0 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 1 NY SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 1 NY SYOSSET COOP 2 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 2 NY CENTERPORT COOP 3 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 3 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 3 Monthly Data for February 2016 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY CARMEL 4N COOP -13 CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP -12 CT SAUGATUCK RESERVOIR COOP -10 CT DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN -10 CT DANBURY COOP -10 CT ANSONIA 1 NW COOP -9 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP -9 NY WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN -9 NY PORT JERVIS COOP -9 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP -8 NY SHRUB OAK COOP -8 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN -8 CT GROTON NEW LONDON AP WBAN -8 CT GROTON COOP -8 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP -8 NY WEST POINT COOP -7 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP -7 CT TRUMBULL COOP -7 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN -6 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN -6 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN -5 NY MATTITUCK COOP -5 NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP -5 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP -5 NY BAITING HOLLOW COOP -4 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP -3 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP -3 NY MOUNT SINAI COOP -3 CT PUTNAM LAKE COOP -3 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN -3 NY SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN -2 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN -2 NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN -2 NY CENTERPORT COOP -2 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP -1 NY WEST NYACK COOP -1 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN -1 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN -1 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 0 NJ CRANFORD COOP 0 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 0 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 0 NJ HARRISON COOP 0

Im worried Im gonna mix here

Anyone know what the accuracy skill is of the NBM?

To take things out of our backyards for a moment, I get the feeling an impending disaster awaits a good portion of the south. Those ice totals = very much not good

A historic snowfall for many.

Just siting nude...booze in one hand, schlong in the other.

The Euro has a crazy amount for ice for our area, which literally never happens, so I think its wrong there- probably more sleet, some ice, then plain rain. GFS is as good as it gets for us I think- stays below freezing here, a period of sleet, then back to snow. It would be something like 8-12". Euro is hard to say because the changeover will likely be sooner, so maybe 5-8"? Then a lot of sleet and some ice on top of that. When the real deal cold comes back in we are gonna have a glacier- at least there wont be blowing and drifting of snow onto the roads in the days that follow.

Nope.

yep, transfer does happen, and GFS has it taking a classic path Ne up the coast. 6z is even better than 0z. Goalposts are starting to narrow, and regardless of what we all want/wish for, this looks to be a memorable event.

by Saturday sleet might tickle dendrites behind

Rooting for the underdog GFS to pull an upset over the vaunted EURO for much less ice down there. I was in Owings for 1994 and it was awful. I've got family in Owings, Huntingtown and Leonardtown.

Game on boys! .

Eric Finkenbinder You might be hearing that Sunday's snowstorm could be the biggest in years. Keep in mind there hasn't been a 12"+ snowstorm since 2018. Here are the recent snowstorms that produced more than 6" of snow:

Comparing 18z -> 00z -> 06z I see two trends emerging, both of which may be in our favor: 1.) High pressure over New England appears to be trending west and stronger. This will absolutely help to lock in cold air. 2.) The ensembles are trying to throw more emphasis on the coastal low, which would cut off warm air intrusion and reduce the mix or sleet risk north of US 50. Let's see if these trends hold or improve today.

I wanted to sleep in this morning but my body is getting trained to these six hour intervals.

I mean for this area.

i dunno the mix is trending north by saturday it's going to tickle dendrites behind

I haven't compared the two meteorologically speaking, per se, but this system anecdotally reminds me of the 2/15/15 event for some reason.

not even a decade in the rearview, lots of clunker seasons to go before we're due again

It rained.