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Up to 70 now at home, 63-64 where I am in Melville.

Are you talking RONI peak?

I don’t remember that storm, guess I blocked it out of my memory. What a joke.

I just think it could be a little surprising the possibility for colder conditions in Stronger El Nino. A few of them occurred in the 1895-1950 dataset. The # of samples we have right now is skewed a little warm and too +NAO, imo. Of course we have this global warming spike hitting the West coast and Rockies so we'll see if next Winter doesn't try to repeat the dataset.

Absolutely, wind direction readings can be tricky because of the natural variability in airflow. Many home weather stations only capture the direction at the moment they sample, so rapid shifts aren’t reflected in real time. High-end or professional sensors can update multiple times per second, giving a more dynamic view, but most consumer models essentially show a “snapshot” rather than continuous change.

I forecasted 2015 to pull that off, Chuck, and it was a failure aside from getting the blizzard right....but I hope we do it one day. I know we've come close.

We've been through that....higher end events are going to leak east. You keep imagining this uber-strong, western biased unicorn...have at it. Yes, strong events are favorable for rouge blizzards, agreed. I called the 2016 event down to the week on a seasonal level. I am talking about temps and NE overall snowfall...only one that was decent for NE snowfall was 1982, which had somewhat of a -WPO.

Every month in the 2020s has been -PDO. 74 consecutive months right now. Will it break? Stay tuned!

Split stank for me.

I do not expect it be like 2023-2024.

In the eastern regions. Even so, our snowstorm composite in the Mid Atlantic is a GOA low which is the much favored El Nino pattern, even in Strong. That means we are a -NAO away from a great possibly historic Winter, with a super amped STJ. I don't agree with your logic about going with a higher number changes the players positionings.

I could see it perhaps hanging near neutral like 2004 or 2009....23-24 remained strongly negative.

It will absolutely be warmer than this past winter, regardless.

Let's see.. it will be interesting to see if it goes with El Nino and pulls a 2014-2016, or if it continues to meander near neutral despite strong ENSO forcing like 23-24.

Wow 80 inches is sick

If it's an uber-even over 2.0, yes...we're screwed.

I understand that....you have a preconceived notion of my expectation for the coming winter. All I'm saying is that if El Nino is robust, the PDO will flip. Agree it will be warm, but I doubt that it will be prohibitively so for the northeast.

Rumble here too. I’m staying safe

Well obviously Winters are better if the PDO is strong vs near neutral. You can still get a NE warm Winter in near neutral PDO in El Nino

Okay, you agree with me because I never stated the second half of that. Sounds like a delusion. jk

It probably will average positive.. but I think it could be in the ~+0.50 range vs the +1/1.5 that you might think goes with Stronger El Nino.

Okay.....I bet you $100 the PDO averages positive this winter if El Nino peaks at 1.5 or higher this coming fall.

12z NAM has achieved the absolute piece of shitness. A rare state of utterly 0 redeeming weather value from afternoon tomorrow until sometimes nearing dawn on Friday.

Feels like another superstition. If anything 2 consecutive -PDO El Nino events should favor another one vs something opposite. Weather can be cyclical. I do think the fundamentals of PDO state may have started to change with the Solar Max/aurora borealis the last 2 years, since May 2024.