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29F here in E CT with a coating of snow overnight.

*west .

Both Mt. Holly and Upton wholeheartedly disagree with your take, but we shall see. I dont agree with some of the totals (region wide,) but there will certainly be some major jackpot areas over 2'.

guess you weren't too worried about those 15-25 amounts

2 more snow events Wed and Friday/ Saturday. Pack will be epic

Blizzard warnings expanded east .

Seems like this week coul bring a foot or a bit more to lower nne.

Final Call: Severe Winter Storm Imminent This Evening Through Monday Widespread Closures Likely Monday-Tuesday Synoptic Overview A ridge has rapidly built over the inter mountain west during the day on Saturday and will ensure that two pockets of Pacific energy encounter a relaxed gradient on the east coast over the weekend, as heights over the southeast fall in response to the development of the aforementioned ridge out west. This represents a very favorable pattern for major storm development because the reduced gradient ensures that the energy is not sheared apart by the compressed flow between the polar vortex/block dyad to the north, and the southeast ridge to the south, in much same manner the previous two systems. It is because of this relaxed flow that the energy with these two disturbances can coalesce and phase beneath the block upon reaching the east coast by Sunday night. This is where it becomes apparent that the North American landscape has changed since this major storm was expected to remain south of the forecast area. Not only has the PNA ridge over the western CONUS trended significantly westward into a position ideal to foster the development of major east coast winter storms, but the system currently affecting the region also departs into the Canadien Maritimes at a slightly faster pace, which allows confluence to lift north. This is crucial because it the position of the PNA ridge and the confluence north of Maine that were cited as the reasons why this storm would not be unable to travel up the coast. Below is a juxtaposition of guidance from Tuesday morning (right) and Friday morning (left) to better illustrate these changes. The differences are apparent, and the discrepancy concerning the placement of the Western ridge is even more apparent when comparing guidance this morning (left) to last Sunday (right). It is these changes that leaves the forecast area, along with much of the east coast, poised to experience the full wrath of the impending blizzard of 2026. Expected Evolution Of Blizzard of '26 Snowfall should begin to work into the southwestern portion of Connecticut by around midday today. Snowfall should then work up to about the Mass pike by 10pm, and will rapidly become heavy Sunday evening south of about I 84 in Connecticut, as well as throughout Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts. Snow will spread into the remainder of the region by midnight, while areas of enhancement begin to take shape as the storm quickly ramps up. Note two distinct bands, one over southeastern Mass and one from southeastern New Hampshire into the east slopes of the Monadnocks and Worcester hills. These bands will also be augmented by an ample influx of moisture at the 850mb level, which will act to limit subsidence between the banding with the exception of the Connecticut river valley, and to a lesser extent, the western slopes of the Worcester hills and Berkshires, as these locales will experience a down sloping phenomenon that will limit snowfall somewhat. This is the portion of the storm on Monday morning that will feature blizzard conditions, as hurricane force wind gusts on cape cod induce moderate coastal flooding and beach erosion, as well as severe blowing an drifting of snow that will greatly impede cleanup efforts. It is as at this point, during the height of the storm from roughly dawn through mid-morning, that banding is likely to stagnate for an interval of time, creating considerable variation in snowfall across the region. Thus it is the precise placement of these bands, which is exceptionally difficult to diagnose, absolutely crucial to the snowfall forecast. Here is an assortment of the approximation of the band based upon the 700mb temperatures profile of several models. Note that the guidance on the top (NAM, EURO, EURO AI) are all reasonably similar with the placement of the H700mb warm front through the central portion of the forecast area. The likely axis of the deformation snows denoted with a line is directly on the poleward side of said front and it is here where the most intense snowfall rates are likely to occur during the peak of the blizzard on Monday morning into the mid day hours. The bottom two models, which are the GFS on the left and GEM on the right, are outliers with their placement over southeastern sections of Massachusetts and are disregarded. Here is the Eastern Mass Weather's best approximation of this band during the day on Monday. The very heaviest amounts of snowfall are likely to be within these bands, as well as on the east slopes of the Worcester hills, where a deep layer easterly fetch will induce upslope enhancement. While 850mb flow off of the Atlantic will ensure that the variation in snowfall between bands will not be as extreme as is often the case in systems of this magnitude, amounts are likely to be somewhat lower between these bands due to some extended residence time. Snowfall will finally begin to taper off during the afternoon on Monday. Some mixing with rain occurs over the outer cape and islands at the height of the storm due to the fact that the track of the low is anticipated to come close enough to entrain some milder ocean air on hurricane force wind gusts. Snow will be last to taper under the aforementioned bands, where the steadiest snowfall will tend to "rot", as the bands decay in place throughout Monday evening. Final Call: First Call Issued Friday Feb 20 @ 8pm:

Here are my thoughts….i’m going with the RGEM. RGEM all the way. It’s been the most consistent for days and hasn’t budged. Great model. Makes the most sense. I think the NAM is about to go down in an epic flaming dumpster fire. It’s going to have its hugest bust ever. GFS has been downgrading amounts since Friday evening. Ride the RGEM 6z RGEM: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2026022206&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

Not mentioned here i don't think.. but still have snow caked onto trees from this past event might help to bring some down

OKX AFD is historic and weenied out

Final Call Blizzard of '26 https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/02/final-call-severe-winter-storm-imminent.html Final Call: First Call Issued Friday Feb 20 @ 8pm:

If the NAM and HRRR have a clue might get a good amount here.. should be more fluff here after the storm starts.. you paste.. more qpf for you but we fluff

Reading the BOX discussion again and I bet if 12z comes in good they will upgrade here.. its going to be close

congrats, is it ok i steal your snow and get 20-25" so we're even at the end of the storm?

Oh, and if I lived just 5 miles east of Tamaqua in Lansford, I'd be under a Blizzard Warning instead of a Winter Storm Warning. Mt Holly upgraded Carbon and Monroe to the Blizzard Warning. Strangely though, not Lehigh or Northampton.

Well, that was before this blizzard....no one will whine after this.

Regionwide damages

WB 6Z GFS. Nice moderate snow storm from immediate DC burbs to the Bay, Major to the east...

quite a remarkable AFD. Never seen them mention 3 feet amounts other than the storm we don't talk about here

Easily still over a foot otg here.. 12 to 16ish probably

6z GFS and ICON pretty meh here but the GFS did increase from 0z. NAM and HRRR are great though..Here's hoping the 12z runs are great!!

OKX is now forecasting a top 10 all timer for NYC. This 20" amount would be tied with Boxing Day at #7.

“A potentially historic winter storm will impact the Tri-State area today into Monday. This is a dangerous situation with blizzard conditions.”