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If I were a betting man I'd say the RGEM probably has the best handle on this. Looking back it more or less nailed the last system 48 hours out (just a couple counties too far south)

Mattapoisett Mauler.

We hope and pray

Was a nice surprise this morning to wake up to a dusting here in Staten Island. Now I'm ready for some real snow.

Lol…here we go again…hope west doesn’t gets boned if this somehow materializes. Trapped and pulled back is always precarious for the area.

Amplifying ridge over west coast plus a decaying -NAO block near Hudson/Baffin and already a cold antecedent airmass equals good things happening for us usually. I think this one will be on the models quite a bit over the next couple days…let’s get the signal even stronger.

Fingers crossed

Digging trends over the last 24hr out west. Bodes well downstream for something to pop.

That forms a light anafront and then a Nor'easter. IMHO, that would form a blizzard for the NE.

Yeah, if you trace it back, it breaks off from the PV in BC and dive south and east.

If that happened verbatim, I might need to chase that in Yarmouth, lol. That looks like a grid collapser on the Cape.

west based blocking decaying around that time also argues for a storm popping up

Anyways. Def potential there. Good to see an OP run blow it up nicely. It’s been showing up on a decent number of ensemble members the last couple days.

Looking like a dusting here, which is fine with me, after the insanely fast start to winter. Congrats to the i80 crew.

Nor did the observer at CP where 0.02 liquid occurring virtually as all snow and only T. Guessing the snow total was rounded down to a T (below 0.5"). That might be a future question mark for detail oriented minor climo checkers.

Late next week into the weekend definitely looks interesting across guidance. Generally hinting at a chance of some snow followed by an Arctic outbreak.

just a bit east but that's a nice setup

Wow, cold white smoke next Saturday/Sunday, at least on this run

We Nuke!

The second s/w looks like a piece of the PV.

What a wild setup. That low wants to escape east but it gets pulled back in and goes ballistic.

Thank you Bob and Will.

Happy Hour lives!

First shortwave on 12/12. The second one for 12/13-14 is the nuke.