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IOD and PDO forecast based on the latest seasonal runs. Note my PDO calculation runs higher than other sources. I haven't wired these maps into my website yet but I will post the link if anybody wants it later.

Revamped this map. Been a long time since I posted this. Good look at the ranking from a dense rank perspective. July was a doosy for some of us in the N. Had to chuckle at MSP. It was one of the hottest avg's in the Midwest. Fit right in with Missouri wx The North Shore experienced cool wx due to colder Lake waters. The hotter air coming in from the SW helping stns reach near record/record warmth inland, but brought cool lake winds along the shore. Point casts failed a lot. Note: You may have to click on the map, then zoom for a better look. Or just zoom the post.

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Now the further E one is orange (40% within 7 days). The 0Z UKMET is back to developing this (12Z TC was from the further W TW): 0Z UKMETNEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURSFORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 9.3N 35.5WLEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------0000UTC 13.08.2026 96 9.1N 36.4W 1010 231200UTC 13.08.2026 108 9.8N 38.0W 1010 280000UTC 14.08.2026 120 11.1N 40.2W 1010 281200UTC 14.08.2026 132 12.6N 42.5W 1010 320000UTC 15.08.2026 144 15.0N 45.6W 1011 331200UTC 15.08.2026 156 17.0N 49.5W 1011 370000UTC 16.08.2026 168 18.3N 53.4W 1012 41

Thankfully that's all it was! Goodness gracious...last thing we needed is Stanley 2.0--may it never be, lol

This humidity is awful. Worst weather week in a long while. Would absolutely take the 100+ from earlier this summer over whatever this is

Chris, 1995-1996 was a perfect storm of a flawless pattern and extraordinary luck.....I get what you are saying about the impact of CC of the size of ridges, but we could get an identical pattern to 1995-1996 100 times over and not come away with record snowfall the length of the east coast. That season was a unicorn. The pattern last year was not as favorable, as not only was the NAO severely negative in the mean owed to the easterly QBO/solar min combo, but the WPO was also strongly negative. The pattern was simply more favorable that year, even if the ridge sizes were identical. Your point is valid, but that isn't the only reason that we didn't get a repeat of 1995-1996.

Been so busy at work I haven’t had time to post, but agree with everything above. The GDM opens a window and it looks legit, aided with a passing CCKW. Far from pristine but you get something to develop and track north of the Antilles and you get a decent ACE producer.

The day after day flowers signed an absurd deal w the Ravens, he has a quad contusion in practice.

We've been lucky/people have been careful, I guess. Utah and especially the Northwest have been far worse, though we've had a few tragic fatalities here. Smoke is mainly aloft, not so much at the surface. More rain is always 5-6 days away. Maybe it will happen, someday. Meanwhile DEN has had its 6th or 7th 100 degree day today.

Smoke may throw a wrench in that perhaps.

Probably off to a slow start and not expecting a very good retention year given the high probability of warmer temp anomalies, but I think we have our chances. And there could be a couple of big boys that help out with the snowfall anomolies, even in a overall hostile regime. That's my early take.

Probably a 5-6 day long heatwave by the time we’re done. These 91 borderline days count.

Heavy rain, wind and lightning kicking us off the golf course around 12:30 today in Pikesville. Second time this week.

That 00z HRRR is

Man, looking at damage reports, parts of Springfield metro got hit hard. Uneventful day for most but certainly not for all.

I can already feel myself saying "tuck baby tuck"