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My answer: That’s why I prefer to compare 30 year normals rather than compare absolutes since temps are obviously warming due to GW, which is what I put in my reply to Chris. Now in terms of 30 year climo based anomalies for super Nino Octs, ‘26 is coming in a bit warmer than the avg anom.

(Population 9,477)

as per this data, Yellow Medicine County, MN is warming at a rate of between 0.12F and 0.19F per decade.

The widespread warmth across the US is insane. Just shocking

The above data is like most other places sufferring from NCEI altered temperatures which as is usually the case warms the past and chills the current. Below is actual vs altered data for beautiful Yellow Medicine County!! The graph shows 1895–2025: the NCEI adjusted line is in red and the raw station data in blue, each with its trend line. The trend is +0.19°F/decade for NCEI and +0.12°F/decade for raw, so NCEI shows about 60% more warming than the raw data - call me stunned!!

I agree 100%!! IMO, the AO is more important than the NAO. I have identified 9 analog winters since 1950 to 26/27. For Augusta, 78% of strong El Nino winters have above average snowfall. The below average snowfall similar Enso winters were #1 - 72/73 at +2.0 C. with an average +1.2 AO and -.50 NAO and 91/92 at +2.3 with an average +1.10 AO and -.50 NAO. Slightly negative NAO and moderately positive AO is bad news for snow.

Source for this claim or is this another trust me bro argument?

Oh, totally get that.....plenty of reason to think that, and we all have our stances, but it's perhaps more important to look for reasons that your reasoning will NOT work out.

If you have an issue with the climate data on Yellow Medicine County, MN (Population 9,477), please care to refute it in the appropriate thread.

If you got the data from NCEI like below it most certainly is altered adjusted data!

December was the only month that winter with a significant -NAO (-.96), hence the best month of the season.

I wasn't signaling anyone out....general question.

We won't have any MC this season and the forcing still extends into the region SSE of Hawaii...which is where guidance has consistently place the highest precip rates.

Right....intraseasonal variability, which proves my point....it's always going to exist to some extent and there are folks acting as though it will not.

Through October 22 - 2026 is warmer than usual but not close to a record. County mean for Oct 1–22: 58.9°F, from 19 stations. That makes it the 34th-warmest of 139 Oct 1–22 periods that had at least 2 stations reporting. The anomaly composite ranks it lower, 53rd of 139 (+1.0°F against each station’s own long-term mean). The gap is mostly because the network has changed over time, which the composite corrects for, so the naive rank flatters 2026 a little. Compared with recent years, it’s warmer than 2019–2020 and 2022–2025, but behind 2016 (59.3°F), 2017 (62.0°F) and 2021 (62.4°F). The record is out of reach. The warmest Oct 1–22 on record is 1941 at 64.7°F, then 2007 (63.8°F) and 1914 (63.0°F). Getting into the top 10 would take about 61°F, more than 2°F above where we are now.

Untrue.

Psst! you may not realize but those are altered adjusted temperatures not the actual temps!

too bad Yellow Medicine County, Minnesota (Population 9,477) does show a warming trend rather than a lack of one, which offsets any lack of a warming trend shown by Chester County, Pennsylvania

That great deep data is indeed publically available for all to use with the detailed data sources for support and verification. I hope it helps! Thanks for the support Cobalt!

Ray, I personally don’t think it is all that big of a deal that ATL is projected to be ~1.8 F above normal for the FULL Oct of ‘26. I didn’t mean to imply that. After all, Oct of 1991 was almost as far AN with it at 1.6F AN. Of course he was just referring to Oct 1-22, which came in ~2.2 AN vs the normal of 66.4F. But even that isn’t a strong warm anomaly.

i believe 15/16 the forcing started West in December. But we had a further west starting point (MC —> Dateline).

December it was shifted west vs. Feb. The vortex getting backed up and tucked into Alaska was more favorable than over the GOA. Yea I know, there were other factors such as solar. But this added to it.

There's fossil fuel companies out there like Exxon Mobil who would stand to profit in the trillions if it was figured out that the burning of their products does not contribute to a rise in global temperatures. Insurance companies, the agriculture industry, etc, would benefit massively if it was found that the globe isn't warming. You should submit your data for Chester County, PA to some sort of scientific panel to help benefit the whole of humanity. Once they learn that Chester County, PA shows no statistical warming, the entirety of the globe's warming trend will be discounted entirely.

ehh I don't think that's how that really works. The overall scheme is much more complex than just "learning" from mistakes and misses. While its become apparent AI models are going to provide some tremendous value, at least in medium range forecasting, if we truly want to make a substantial leap with modeling we need two things 1) Superior computing (such as quantum computing) that is able to perform complex calculations at a much faster rate. Another key aspect about quantum computing is they will be able to handle and perform even calculations that are way more complex than what supercomputers can currently handle 2) The ability to initialize current state better (the Euro has been worlds ahead in this) and part of this goes into quantum computing and ability to handle and perform challenging complex equations. 3) Another challenge is putting knowledge, or our understanding on physical processes into mathematical terms to be computed. There is always going to be some sort of disconnect because we don't have a true 100% knowledge of every process which occurs during storm evolution (example: why some supercells with hooks produce tornadoes while others don't) so we can't 100% model that accurately. And models just can't learn that without us being able to feed it that information first.

Not speaking for anyone in particular but ... I 'sense' the posts are implicitly dancing around an ominous look/portents for winter.