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Before the season, I called for a BN December (verified), but AN January and February (bust). When I saw the late season was not going to verify, I revised the forecast to BN February (looks better), AN March and April (TBD). AN March seems like a lock if the MJO to phase 6 to begin March verifies.

Without a significant turnaround during March and April can foresee water restrictions coming for the Summer season.

In addition to all you have shown those maps clearly show significant changes in the pattern than what we have been in for the last 4-6 weeks. PV has retreated into north central Canada with the coldest of the air trapped underneath it. More energy coming into the west coast. High latitude blocking has faded. Western ridge has shifted west to western Alaska. STJ looks a little more pronounced. Looks like our weather pattern here will be more northern stream dominated over the next week or so. We'll be on the southern fringe of cooler Canadian air and northern fringe of milder air moving eastward from the central U.S. Hard to envision any meaningful snow over the next 7 to maybe 10 days.

Yeah I didn't read his post correctly. That sort of thing doesn't really interest me, but it probably wont if the forecast pattern comes to fruition.

Looking at the long range, I think we’re done with wintry weather outside of the mountains so I hope everyone got their fill. I do think we have one more cold shot to go, possibly an extended one, before we go permanently to spring. Putting out pre emergent before this rain! Don’t forget it this month if you hate crabgrass. If you’re putting it down in March you’re too late

GFS and EURO seem to be flip flopping on that period....

A quiet feb leading into an active march?

And you have nailed it this whole season since October. You're one, two and three month predictions have been phenomenal. We don't even feel worthy of them anymore. Maybe take them to the New England Forum for awhile so they can benefit too. I'm sure the gang there would love your constant warm bias, I mean insight.

Definitely! @CoastalWx If you're taking out the loan anyway to head up, be sure to leave room to stay at one of Alex's place. Great quality of service and nice, convenient options. Well worth it!

Gotta love Butternut on Fridays for 25 bucks! It’s not going to challenge you really and not much natural terrain, but great learning mountain. For 25 dollars you absolutely can’t beat it. Heading up tomorrow with my Sister, nephew and Son.

Should be interesting to see how mid to late next week works out. Some models are already backing down somewhat on the extent of the "heat." I feel like most years warmups are always underdone but this year has been an exception in so many ways.

Sorry I replied to the wrong message about the discount lol. But it’s true for anyone of course

The D2 drought category had been removed from northern NJ and eastern PA after the storm 2 1/2 weeks ago, only to be added right back with this update. Dryness continues.

Also, if you need a place to stay let me know. I can see what I can do in giving you a deal. We have 126 homes in the program - almost sold out for the weekend but we still have at least 10 this weekend and more over the course of the week.

Get a set of cross-country skis. Enjoy the beautiful scenery and get a massive cardio workout.

Thanks man.

Definitely agree with all of this. Nice, gentle terrain and far less crowded than anywhere else. Can't beat the scenery either!

That window roughly 180 through 216 hours has huge sensible wx variance risk. GEFs = 60 at some point thru that EPS = ice storm ...at least per 00z means...

NYC Feb 2015: 23.9 -12.0 Mar 2015: 38.1 -4.7 Apr 2015: 54.3 +0.6 May 2015: 68.5 +5.3

actually looks some of the euro runs where it phased. Northern energy really dives in this run but our southern vort is to slow. There is still a tiny window for a phase.

Yep. No dice this run.

Yup a whiff to the south

looks like it will be south of 6z

As I've been curious lately about how we seem to have muted warmups (winter to date, not including next week), I just looked at Akron and Etown zips on NWS climo data for this week and neither location got to 40 for the last 3 days (which was our "warmup" that was being touted from last week. Next week, I'm sure I'll be trolled to oblivion and beyond when we hit 50 (and I think we have a couple chances at it.) Not sure how many days our sub 40 stretch has been, but for me, it's been enjoyable. No matter, springs gonna b springin soon enough.

Thru 60 looks south