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looking at the GFS I'm willing to bet the GEFS have some north members at 18z

Yep I was thinking I’d end up with maybe 4-5” after so much was wasted to sleet/rain and that saved it.

Nice melting today

Even she senses the desperation and declines...

The lack of replies shows how well the GFS is regarded

10 pm

Nope

7pm

High of 34 ended a 20-day run of maxima 32 or colder. Longest run was Jan-Feb 2015 with 33. Jan-Feb 2007 had 31 and only the 33 on Jan 24 broke a 42-day run. (Dwarfed by Fort Kent, no surprise. Dec 16, 1976 thru Feb 27, 1977 for 74 days, and only 5 of them had no flakes. That period brought 117.2" snowfall.)

The 5-day NBM temperature forecast for NYC is below. Next week will likely see the mildest weather so far this month move into the NYC area.

Bring it !

WB 18Z GFS 4pm Sunday

Robo gfs not buying the ditty garage sale, ticked east even.

Not obvious for all that are reading though.

You can tell how awful the pattern is...it like the end of the night in a bar on Fanieul Hall after the lights come on and you're still solo...you desperately try chatting up the fat, unkempt chick in the corner with sweaty crisco lathering up her skin...this pattern is The Purple Shamrock and this threat=that chick.

Some of the crop yield increases were likely helped by better technology, but not nearly all of it. GW/AGW have helped significantly with crop sizes, something often intentionally glossed over

This model is not ready for Primetime. Next winter it probably will be because of how quickly AI is advancing. Any person who gives great credence to this model at this time has not studied its support.

Boy you hit about all the MMGW scapegoat talking points there, didn't you? You forgot about rape though. (Yes, it's a thing) I'll just hit one of the scaries for now - crop failures - the rest can be inferred. The sky-is-falling narrative tends to fall apart when you look at the actual data, and not individual anecdotes. (ironically - much like looking at a weather event and claiming that it's an indicator of climate trends)

The ICON is like a pendulum, swinging back and forth between a miss and a miss…..

how far north cirrus gets

Oh yeah that's right, I remember it snowed all the way up into the northeast as the storm headed that way - though New Jersey didn't get as much as we did

What are we even talking about?!

Arrows pointed due north towards Metheun

This is very fluid situation with many players. NWS confident solution at 6 pm may be completely different at 6 am as new solutions are available. I hope that you can understand that.

40/70?