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It's good for verifying mixing but only in the short range. It's not reliable beyond 36hrs

.A devastating winter storm for a large portion of the area will impact the region Saturday afternoon/evening through Sunday night with snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain expected.

One of these models is going to epically fail here. GFS and RGEM have been consistently dropping the front end hammer. NAM and some of the short term high res models, along with EURO are insistent on a much quicker flip and almost deadly dang freezing rain in a sense, based on some of the storm totals.

I remember hearing about your area up to Red Lion were like a war zone with the damage on trees and power lines. No bueno.

Been sunny in Greenville for the last hour. Makes me wonder if the high pressure is even stronger than expected. Maybe pushing the sleet line further south.

At this point im following the rule I posted above and expecting the 12k nam, or possibly even worse assuming it keeps trending. Anything better than that solution will leave me surprised and elated.

Luckily its the ICON showing that... for now

HRRR? I know it’s far out for it but…

RGEM looked like it held serve. Bottom line is we're going to be paying close attention to the oncoming snow shield early Sun morning and hoping it comes in like a wall. Shredded crap and we might barely make it to the low end of forecasts (I'm talking for I-80, city and coastal areas). The wraparound stuff on Monday to me looks like a longshot and again something that would favor SNE. if the primary drives that far N and wrecks the mid levels, we just get the dry slot and whatever coastal redevelopment would be too far north. It's very unlikely this will be the lame usual SWFE but if you're expecting 12"+ in the city I'd start preparing for disappointment.

Can confirm that was a bad ice storm.

Let’s be honest, most of the models you don’t like (I also hate what I saw) are the lowest of the JV suite.

18z Canadian.

Sign. Me. Up

All that and my house is still in the blue snow,so is upper manhattan. The type of storm that cuts along i-95/north snow..south/ice.

Bro, no. I'm at work from 8 pm Sat., to 8 pm. Mon. I want to go home at some point.

I rode the HRRR/RGEM combo to victory last weekend (go figure?). I'll ride it again this weekend

nam could be one of those NAM'd runs but opposite. That model isn't reliable!

I hope Nam is wrong because this will be a nasty ice event here. Surface temps aren't budging away from the coast and will probably verify colder than models show.

Can’t catch a break. Rain is slowly making its way into the conversation, especially for LI. Hard to believe given the arctic airmass ahead of it, but we’ve seen this happen before. Just goes to show that getting the perfect storm is nearly impossible for the immediate coast.

Ok rgem calms my soul some

Been consistent for a few runs now and pretty much matches euro.

That's candy for a strong SWFE. It can rain in the single digits.

RGEM is fine, stops the bleeding for now.