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Two worst models. This has north trend feeling. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut know and then.. We will see

We have a decaying block going for us which is usually a good sign of a big storm. Lets see.

The GFS is a huge impact to the possibility.

My big fear is that we end up too far south for the redeveloping Miller B, but at this lead time, it's very encouraging.

Still a nice hit. This has a chance with the decaying blocking.

Exactly. The general category of fallacy here is called the reduction fallacy. In this context (and many others of climate contrarians) it is assuming outcomes are tied to one and only one cause. Example: Plants love CO2 therefore increases in atmospheric CO2 will necessarily result in increased crop yields. The Problem...changes in CO2 also causes other factors (like temperature, rainfall, soil composition, etc.) to change as well. If these other factors present negative influences that more than offset the positive influence of CO2 itself then crop yields will still decline. It is the NET effect of all factors that matters. Example: The global average temperature (GAT) does not move in lockstep with CO2 changes especially on monthly time scales therefore CO2 cannot be the cause of GAT changes. The problem...other factors (like the ENSO cycle) influence the GAT as well especially on short time scales. It is the NET effect of all factors that drive GAT temperature changes. The jerky up-down pattern we see in the GAT is what you would expect when you superimpose the gradual increase in CO2 forcing over the long term with the stronger but transient forcing of the cyclic factors in the short term. There are other contrarian arguments that can be categorized as reduction fallacies as well.

Thats helpful, i can add the 28" in Paxton and 27" in Rutland. If there's anything else you have that would be helpful or anything else i should remove/add here. Yeah 30" in Winchendon, 28" Gardner 18.3 Ashburnham COOP, Barre Falls 16.9"

Gets going a little to Late big hit for Long Island and sent respectable for rest of us

The past doesn't forecast the future. Extreme cold led to suppression depression. The tenor has changed. Just classic

The fact it has a system and that it stalls like the Icon is VERY encouraging to me.

GFS blizzard but would like it 50 miles north

I guess they haven't seen all of the fantasy storms even a week away that don't materialize. I am hoping it happens, but I can't get excited this far out.

I'm going to crash out if we have to deal with another messy 5" while NYC and BOS get 20" of cold smoke

Its still nice. Just weaker than 6z.

Something to track for the weekend

The blocking is going away. We usually get big storms once the block eases up.

Don't hate the GFS

Wrong Big hit south and east

We've had an abundance of blocking this year....how many big coastals??

Boston crushed on gfs

https://www.powerball.net/statistics

Low-end warning/high end advisory event on the GFS

No, it's not an IMBY concern. I wrote about it last night. Revisit Friday.

No one is that bad