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If you think the lack of a blockbuster rare huge snowstorm Feb 20-28 is not just the product of a random chance distribution of a rare event over a limited sample then explain the causation. Finding some pattern in numbers means absolutely nothing if you can’t show there is causality and it’s not just an artifact or randomness.

Meh you get used to it. Happened a few times when I was growing up.

This very cold outbreak being shown on maps for Sunday-Monday has potential to deliver one of the coldest set of low max and min seen around the northeast in decades. The source of the cold air is northern Quebec and the trajectory never crosses the Great Lakes (Hudson Bay either, although it is now frozen over anyway). Lake Ontario has temperatures in the 32-37 F range and Lake Erie is frozen so early stages of the onset with some of the air mass encountering those lakes will not modify much. Strong winds will reduce the potential for all-time lows in rural areas but will increase the potential for urban settings because the urban heat island is reduced considerably in windy weather -- the chilled air has no time to absorb the city's heat and differentials from city to suburbs to rural outlying areas is often no greater than what elevation alone might produce, certainly a smaller amount of urban heating than the usual 10-15 F deg on cold, clear and still nights. I looked at the thickness parameters and could see how NYC might stay below 10 F all day and dip below 0 F at night, -3 F would be the coldest I could imagine NYC getting. After the exceptional -17F in Dec 1917 and -15 F in Feb 1934, the benchmark lowest values are -8 (Feb 1943) and since then, -2 (Feb 1961, Feb 1963, Jan 1977, Jan 1985, Jan 1994) ... the only subzero reading after 1994 is the -1 F from Feb 2016. (it was also -1 in Dec 1980 and in Jan 1968 and 1976. Since 2016 the lowest reading at NYC is 2F on Jan 31, 2019 (matched by Feb 2015). It would be quite spectacular to get below zero at all, let alone coldest since 1943 (83 winters ago). The winter of 1942-43 had two very cold readings, the other one in Dec 1942 (-3 F). There have not been any sub-10 daily max values since the 9F of Jan 21, 1985. It was 10F in Jan 1994. Sub-10 maxima are quite rare in general, especially since 1943. Besides 1985, the only cases of a sub-10 maximum at NYC are these: 2F _ Dec 30, 1917 3F _ no cases exist 4F _ Dec 30 1880 ... Feb 5, 1918 5F _ no cases exist 6F _ Jan 24, 1882 ... Dec 31 1917 7F _ Jan 3, 1879, ... Dec 20 1884 ... Feb 5 1886 ... Feb 10 1899 ... Feb 17 1896 8F _ Jan 12, 1886 ... Feb 8 1895 ... Dec 29 1917 ... Jan 13 1912 ,,, Feb 9 1934 ... Dec 20 1942 ... Feb 15 1943 9F _ Dec 21, 1871 ... Feb 2, 1881 ... Feb 11, 12 1899 ... Jan 13 1914 ... Jan 21 1985 10F _ Mar 5, 1872 ... Feb 7, 1875 ... Dec 29 and 31 1880 ... Dec 23 1883 ... Jan 28 1888 ... Feb 24 1894 ,,, Feb 6 1895 ... Jan 1 and 2, 1918 ... Feb 17, 1958 ... Jan 19 1994 Since 1994, 13F Jan 6 2018 is lowest ... even such notable cold months as Jan 1977 and Dec 1872 failed to set a 10 or lower max. Of course, the sub-10 F reading has to survive midnight highs at either end of the calendar day. The daylight hours of Jan 31, 1920 were probably sub-10F as well, for one example. Remarkably, the highest temperature from Feb 9 to 13 1899 was 11 F and that bitterly cold spell ended with the Blizzard of 1899 13th-14th. Dec 29 1917 to Jan 2 1918 never went higher than 10 F.

Already down to 24f. This is the first real somewhat thaw/refreeze since the storm…

NAM https://kaosfactory.github.io/wxblox/fmap2.html?lat=39.1184384,-76.5231104

As a glass half full kind of guy, I’m with you. The very fact that NC got their HECS should give us a lot of optimism about our future winters. We will get ours one of these winters, and many more to come. Instead and unfortunately, some choose to look at it as a zero-sum game where we get mad when folks south of us are getting more snow than we do. I also don’t think we’re done with winter yet, but if we really are, we have an El Nino to look forward to. It’ll probably be a milder winter than the last two, but at least we’ll have our chances with an active STJ.

Had it not been for the last storm, we would have been obsessing over this one all week. We all kind of forgot about it haha

Surprised @mitchnick didn’t post the 18z AiGFS for 14-15th. Maybe a touch too warm, but it times two waves pretty well

Persistence works more than 50% but it’s not enough to just rely on it. just off my head these winters featured significant pattern shifts and storm track changes 1993, 1999, 2000, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2015, 2016, 2018, 2019, 2022

I also think the delivery on Saturday is a little more west than we want it for best realization at the sfc. Still damned cold stuff, but I like to see it drilling more from the NNW and this is NW to WNW even.

Yeah, that mid month period has really broken down and looks quite warm. We wont reach 50s-70s during that week, but if the jet extension continues for longer than expected, we could become even warmer towards the end of the month

GFS https://kaosfactory.github.io/wxblox/fmap.html?lat=39.1184384,-76.5231104

per my station it says the 15th was 35, and before that I think the 11th, of course I'm looking on a phone so I need to go back day by day for Jan still, haven't had time. but it's been a grip since it's been over 32, that's all I know and my wife can't stand the winter so it's all I hear...

Spanks’ pit gets real cold too…huge difference between him and surrounding spots…cold settles in his area too.

While watching everyone else getting daisy duked.

Could it just end up bleah the rest of the way with nothing? Sure, it could. But why must we practically assume it will? Why assume that there isn't any kind of reload, in whatever form that takes, toward a colder and more favorable look? Seems that's the general feeling here from several people. I'm not ready to just say F-it, we're done, it was fun for 2 weeks in January and early February, see ya next winter! And depending on what your definition (or anyone's definition) of a "good snow event" is, I'd hardly call that historic/rare for the latter part of February or the first part of March. Maybe if one is HECS-hunting, but a nice warning-level event? Not quite so rare or historic in that time period.

We are the Roscoe P Coltrains of snow

March 8 we do the clocks. That extra hour of sunshine everyday will wipe out the snow in no time.

I would post these in the storm thread. Honestly, it tells part of the story. When we look back in a few years, it will be great information.

We need you to drive by the christmas trees on a strong rad morning with the car thermo for science. I’m sure that pit is cooler than his coop site, but he’s probably overplaying it by a good 5F.

With the coming of spring I'm afraid the ice steps I sculpted as a short-cut down to my car will turn into an impassible muddy mess. A "rasputitsa" if you will that will hinder mobility

We are here because a long time ago our respective parents decided to have wild hedonistic intercourse when it was snowing and 9 months later we were all born with the gene. It was historic cold and got a concrete snow pack. Most years this shit would be gone by now. We get days of 60s or rain. One day the doo doo pattern wont need perfect vorts and the doo doo models will show shit better from d7-5 so that we don’t feel like we keep getting effed without a reach around

Below freezing stretch continues.. but it did feel like Summer today

2/10-2/18 look fairly hostile for cold and snow in the northeast south of NNE unless we can see some improvements in the pacific as we get closer. The blocking will prevent a “torch.”

The problem is when does it reload...and if we can manage an event VD/PD weekend with said relaxing pattern. If we don't ya start wondering about the rest of the month. I mean I don't read ensembles that well so maybe somebody can tell me if thet show cold coming back after next week. And a February SSW doesn't give me confidence because that was too little too late last time. But man I'd love a good snow event in late February--that would be almost historic given how rare it is (I won't believe it till I see the calendar say February 21st-28th and it's snowing a few inches outside, lol)