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So did the high winds knock the ratios down as expected? Never had realized that until it was brought up leading up to this past storm.

I’ve not been sold on this being more than melt and mud season. I don’t like the fact that the smeared out polar vortex is on this side of the north pole; it inherently means that we’re gonna have a compressed flow and fast flow in southern Canada. That’s a recipe for wedging… That’s always been there. It doesn’t mean we can’t get super warm but it just makes it really dicey wouldn’t feel comfortable going for that at this range.

You get *that* much "mashed potatoes," that's whats going to happen. Not often you get so much snow that is wet/high LEQ for the duration of the storm. Same thing happened in the DC area for the storm last month (plows getting stuck/equipment breaking), but for a different reason. 6" of snow, followed by 2-4" of PL, then a seal coast of FZRA! Then wicked cold after. It turned into a glacier quickly ("snowcrete" came up as a term, new one for me!) and made snow removal unusually difficult. This is why I say that I would take 3 ft of fluff over 6" of mashed potatoes any day, at least when it comes to overall impact and the hassle of driving in it and cleaning it up!

It has been a snowy winter in the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas. Already, Islip, JFK Airport, and Providence have clinched top 10 seasonal snowfall figures.

"Meteorological winter" isn't real.

What a game by Sixers tonight

Spring is showing up on the models,

Next weeks event is looking worse and worse. Maybe we could squeeze out 2-3” Sunday?

I remember reading somewhere that was the biggest threat to their temp - moisture - amd I thought specifically feet. My oldest hen is 5, the buff, and at her old age she won't step on ice or snow, unless she absolutely has to, lol. My biggest concern this time of year is Hawks. The ermine I had slinking around their run a month or so back has moved on. Had it's fill of meadow voles, couldn't get into their run, and thankfully took off.

I'd think we want the GFS to be more correct but further north. If we're waiting on precip till later on Tuesday I don't think the high will hang on.

Cool graphic on Tomer’s page. Strong signal for a torch .. except for us, lack of the black shading indicates there is much more uncertainty for us warm sectoring - while Central Jersey is 75 we could be stuck in the 30s/40s.

Phew that's rough

Yeah I posted about this earlier. Still subject to change at this point. Whatever wave it is, it has to strike when that HP is in place to the north. Once it slides east off the coast its pretty much over for our area for a decent snow event.

The ECMWF weeklies suggest that spring begins for good during the week of March 9-16. The weeklies suggest the following teleconnection pattern during the second half of March: WPO-/ EPO+/ AO+/ PNA-. Using NYC as an example for the Northeast, the mean March 16-31, 1980-2025 temperature for such teleconnections is 46.6°. For all other cases, it is 45.3°. So, one isn't exactly looking at a cold pattern with those forecast teleconnections. Moreover, the ECMWF weeklies don't show a cold pattern. Fortunately, teleconnection forecasts are not skillful beyond two weeks. If one is looking for a genuinely colder pattern to develop, an AO- would offer perhaps the strongest possibility. Even leaving the other teleconnections as they are currently forecast (WPO-/EPO+/PNA-) but combining them with an AO- , the March 16-31, 1980-2025 mean temperature was 42.9°.

1ku

Never thought I'd say it, but I'm ready.

It’s hard this time of year for me letting them out. Snow melts near their run entrance and water puddles up but by 3 it’s in the 20s and refreezing. I don’t need them freezing their feet all night.

GFS is snowless for the run essentially at 18z

Winter meets spring vibe in that photo… Sun angle evident, but ground frozen solid.

The problem is the Euro dampens out the first wave and keys in on the second one. We've lost Thermols by the time the Euro brings in precip.

My position is as follows: ...any structural decline in seasonal snowfall from an overall warming of winters probably won't be evident until the mid-2030s due to stochastic variability. Moreover, there will continue to be some big snowstorms (even if the recent big snowfall drought skews perceptions) and snowy winters. Winters can still feature cold. December 2025 is an example, as it's on course to be the coldest December in 15 years in NYC. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/62460-snow-potential-dec-26-27/?do=findComment&comment=7876310 Washington, DC with its warmer climate than NYC provides a classic example with Winter 2009-10. Norfolk, Richmond, and Washington, DC have all see a number of significant and major snowstorms since 2010 with climates that are warmer than New York City's will be even a decade or more in the future.

We want euro south,... GFS north lol

Except for some hollow 3000k ft up on a mountain that’s seen 350in.

18z GFS is a pretty widespread CAD event. Definitely an interesting pattern with the wedge in place.