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I've been through a storm that had 5 inches of nothing but sleet. Not a problem for trees but flat roofs on the other hand...
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To straighten things up. There are only two versions of the NAM Nest. The regular 'ol 12k NAM and the hi-res 3k NAM. There is no such thing as a 1.33k NAM (that I know of). The 3k NAM should start to get into range for this storm by 0z tomorrow night, where it starts to enter its useful range. Hoped that helped.
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You;d rather see it speed up tho not slow down,this is gonna be a brutal run
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Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27
Rjay replied to TriPol's topic in New York City Metro
Yes, they think it stays mostly snow. -
Ground temps something something .
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Exploding showers when the cold comes in behind it
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January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage JV/Banter Thread!
winter_warlock replied to SnowenOutThere's topic in Mid Atlantic
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I understand that, just wondering if they have explained their climo reasoning at all anywhere
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With last system last weekend, HRRR was consistently warmer than obs for surface temperatures and didn't have a good handle on radiative influences in my opinion, but it did indeed do quite well with overall depiction of the small areas that would end up with some token flakes / a dusting (in NC at least), much better than the NAM. However, way too far out to put much stock in the HRRR.
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Why do you think Wakefield is using such strong verbiage about concern with an ice storm for Richmond then? Are they basing it solely on the Euro?
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“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco
40/70 Benchmark replied to TheSnowman's topic in New England
You want to be on the east slope of the ORH hills....on or east of the spine. -
How is it compared to the 18z GFS?
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Amen brother!!!!
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Freezing rain is separate from sleet. Freezing rain is accrual which accumulates on trees, ground, power lines, etc. That's ice accumulation
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January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage JV/Banter Thread!
caviman2201 replied to SnowenOutThere's topic in Mid Atlantic
I've always wondered... do you all do some kind of on-duty rotations or how do you handle coverage? Also, maybe some sort of crowdfunding/gofundme could be set up so folks could donate if they wanted to. I don't know how you all find the time and I've always found this to be a very well-moderated forum even back when I was at peak political douche phase and picking arguments with everyone in the off-topic swamp folks let me say my piece. -
Not a dru patch, just subsidence behind that band in northern MD.
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I was hoping the 1.33k NAM was being run over the Mid Atl tonight. maybe tomorrow 12z or 0z?
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Might wanna put this in banter, lol
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SoCoWx started following January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2
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Out to 27...2-3 degrees colder over E TN.
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Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27
MJO812 replied to TriPol's topic in New York City Metro
Better press so far -
1/24-1/25 Major Winter Storm - S. IL, IN, MI and OH
RCNYILWX replied to A-L-E-K's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Another CIPS analog here that did tick a bit northwest by go time, fairly close in to the event: https://www.weather.gov/lot/2014feb05 Sent from my SM-S936U using Tapatalk -
They are smartly playing to climo. People need to realize models are a tool. Not the end all be all for them. Just one piece of a puzzle they are trying to finish.
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January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage JV/Banter Thread!
davidjd1114 replied to SnowenOutThere's topic in Mid Atlantic
They always have been lol they like to hype it up for viewership . -
Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27
Mo Snow replied to TriPol's topic in New York City Metro
Has NWS given any reasoning why they are so bullish on amounts? -
Even more shocking is the same can be said for central Maryland, just north of DC. 14 days and the highest high modeled is 27°F. With at least three nights below zero.
