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Unreliable D10-11 EPS signal, but cyclically advertised, possibly biased high by single model output... an ice event I84 corridor around Dec 3-4? Standard high terrain but even some minor indication valleys just nw of I95. Again D10-11 so chances are? I am monitoring for myself.

Saw the prior 24 hours of posts... and suggests but not locked into a Wind Advy thread Fri 11/28, possibly starting Thanksgiving afternoon. Awaiting 12z/24 (Monday) modeling.

Larry Cosgrove thinks December will be mild and January and February will be colder. I haven't heard anyone say that expect him. All I have been hearing and seeing are cold and active December forecasts due to the PV.

Same in ashburn

Warm pocket. Actually had a couple lenticulars this morn.

Long range ensemble guidance has also routinely undersold the +PNA the last few months, this example of course flips that script

wow, I got down to 22. it’s not often that the MHT tropics are colder than you

That system is on our doorstep now, so we should have a decent sense for potential accumulations. The latest BTV NWS forecast discussion that mentioned accumulations was from earlier this morning: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1251 AM EST Sun Nov 23, 2025 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Total accumulations will be relatively light, mainly 2 inches or less, with the highest accumulations above 1500 ft. The summits could pick up 3 to 5 inches during this time frame. On their most recent maps for expected snowfall, it looks like projections are for 4-6” in the higher elevations, and 1-2” in the mountain valleys, so that seems to jive with the forecast: As I mentioned in my report from yesterday, the mountains could use a refresher to bump the powder conditions up a couple of notches, and it’s always nice to cover up some of the open areas in the valleys as well. This event certainly won’t be a full resurfacing event for the slopes, but the models generally suggest something on the 0.1”-0.3” of liquid equivalent for the mountains (with the 3K NAM being up there >0.5”, which is typically exaggerated as PF has been noting). It looks like snow chances will start to pick up a bit more as we go forward with the GFS showing 6-7 systems through the course of the latest deterministic run.: Sun-Mon: Clipper Wed-Thu: System heading into northern Ontario/Quebec Thu-Sun: Cold Front/LES Mon-Tue: Snow/Mix/Rain Tue-Fri: Rain to snow After that there are a couple more systems into the first week of December, but that’s way out there in the modeling of course. In any event, many of the systems have some rain potential, but lots of frontside/backside snow potential as well.

That U-shape to climate change over North America should be engrained in your brain… where Bangor Maine is +4 while DFW is less than +1 over the same time frame. This of course follows the behavior of the jet. The cold has increasing propensity to dump over the central US, but warmer SST’s especially with latitude is generating more inland runners. Shortwaves are finding less suppression as they travel east. No surprises here. The observational snowfall in the northeast has also followed with significant winters in Vermont and Upstate NY and the far interiors of NH and Maine. There will be exceptions of course, but this is new key persistence to factor into your seasonal forecasts, especially when this tendency is showing itself in real time, as it is now.

The long range EPS keeps underestimating that forcing in the 120E to 150E Maritime Continent regions. New run Old run

Wow! That is amazing work!

32 for the low

Yes right now but it shouldn't last. Delayed but not denied

Record WPAC warm pool in conjunction with the cold over Siberia continue to create the very strong thermal gradient leading to the faster Pacific Jet and dominant Northern Stream Storm track. The tropical warm pool near the equator and the record subtropical warm pool to the east of Japan and south of the Aleutians both enhance the Southeast ridge. Plus the record Gulf Stream SSTs also contribute. Models tend to underestimate this long range influence as we are seeing with the new forecasts in early December with stronger Southeast ridge than originally forecast. Once this pattern becomes established, it can linger longer than expected as we have often seen heading into December over the last decade. New EPS forecast for December 1-8 Old EPS forecast December 1-8

Who’s going to start the thread: “Post Turkey Day Hooker” :BEYOND THANKSGIVING, SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A TURN TOWARDS A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS WEEKEND GOING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER. OVERALL, THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA CONTINUES TO FAVOR UPPER TROUGHING SETTING UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE PRESENCE OF GREATLY ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN SUCH A PATTERN IS NOTORIOUS FOR STEERING NUMEROUS IMPULSES ACROSS OUR REGION. ACCORDINGLY, SOME PERIODS OF ACTIVE WEATHER, WITH RAIN AND/OR SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE, HOWEVER, THAT AS IS TYPICAL, WHILE THE PATTERN LOOKS INCREASINGLY ACTIVE, THE FINER SCALE DETAILS THIS FAR OUT REMAIN LARGELY UNCLEAR AND WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT IN THE COMING DAYS. NEVERTHELESS, THIS PERIOD WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL WEATHER SYSTEMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THAT COULD IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. STAY TUNED. - LOT

We should rename the station to that. KCO2

The 1st week of December does look mild though. Delayed but not denied ? Im going to remain patient. The Nina is dying and the MJO is going to go into 7/8 and most likely 1.

I think an amped storm brings us rain during this period. But a 2-4 incher could be in the cards if the timing is right especially for NW zones.

The models are really struggling. Thanksgiving and its weekend warmup went poof so is the week 1 warmup which consists of plus 20 day skewing the entire week Here's another warm bust in the making

We haven’t . Not one

They aren’t named. We’ve had a few.

Name one other than the Noreaster. There isn’t any

We’ve had a few coastals. Looks like CT is screwed then.

CO2?