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Our best chance upcoming is going to be that mid February time frame. I don't have much confidence moving into the second half of the month...there's been increasing signals with a flip on the PAC side and introducing more trough amplification into the West and we know what that mans for us. A bit of vitality showing up with respect to pattern evolution second half of the month...that look makes me nervous because it could be signaling the hemisphere is making strides towards the seasonal transition. Not saying winter is over or snow threats are done because slight tweaks in the evolution opens a window. So for now I don't have much in the way of expectations and proceeding with lower confidence moving forward.

Some spots today have their first chance at seeing above freezing temperatures. If we fail to reach freezing today it will mark our 11th straight day. This would tie for the 5th longest sub-freezing streak in County history. If we do not top freezing today we have an increasing chance at setting an all-time county record. If we get through next Monday we would set just such a record at 17 days. There were a couple of flurries out there this morning, but we should see some sun this afternoon. Some additional flurries are possible tonight especially across southern areas. A little better shot at some light snow on Friday before yet another strong arctic front sends us back into the freezer for the weekend.

That follow up wave is trying. The 6z AI euro gets precip to almost ezf if looks like

Some spots today have their first chance at seeing above freezing temperatures. If we fail to reach freezing today it will mark our 11th straight day. This would tie for the 5th longest sub-freezing streak in County history. If we do not top freezing today we have an increasing chance at setting an all-time county record. If we get through next Monday we would set just such a record at 17 days. There were a couple of flurries out there this morning, but we should see some sun this afternoon. Some additional flurries are possible tonight especially across southern areas. A little better shot at some light snow on Friday before yet another strong arctic front sends us back into the freezer for the weekend.

Yes made it to 35.2 yesterday. Even though it got above freezing the amount of snow melting really occurred on roofs and elevated surfaces. With the ground that cold and frozen before this last snowfall, I guess it will take awhile to melt there.

southern tier has been close enough on many runs to keep some mood flakes in the offing tonight/tom morning. Friday clipper still seems to be holding some promise for a winter landscape refresher for much of the state. Still think SE of mtns mood flakes to a coating at best w/ typical clipper fashion favoring nother westers. and while the 7-10 look quiet outside of above mentioned chances, I'm not gonna waste a week of winter, searching for another week of winter. Gonna enjoy what we have and see how things look next week at this time. Ens guidance 2m's look warmish, but tellies beyond 2/15 seem to be zonal/neutral, and with expansive snow pack, It may mute warm signals back towards normal or slightly above. In peak climo, thats not horrible IMO. MJO is concerning, but lets see what it looks like a week from now. SSW event also happening, and downwelling and lag time of it, will likely have an affect on tellies as we look longer range.

Snowy and damaging CAA wind gusts. Check Bufkit

Opposite ... the teleconnectors are NOT showing a signal at this time. That's what I just covered. It's not blood in the cloth or anything and things can change... but right now, the only indicators on the side of Venereal Disease are the Can ens, one runs of the GFS operational, and the fact that if I ever get laid again it's going to have to be paid for... neither prospect is very thrilling to me at this time - but, in deference to hopes and dreams of being kissed by a sexy snow goddess at least you guys got the Can ens and one solitary run of the GFS (06z) leaving you messages on the date site. Otherwise, the current indices are not impressive for that period of time. -d(PNA)/+EPO/neutral NAO. wait there might be something else to NAO hmm

Interesting... 12z HRRR

Light flurries on and off this morning.

Woooo where did that come from? The lowlands approve.

I actually got up to 34 yesterday. I think @mahantango#1 @canderson got warmer than I did. I'm already at 28.2 today. (CTP has me reaching 34) I got home from Florida last Wednesday. Got home and spent time widening the driveway and in process got a good bit of snow on my floormat. That was on Wednesday. Yesterday it finally melted after sitting there for 5 days. The past couple of weeks has been what I dream of going into every winter. I just love the landscape. Also, I'm really intrigued for next weekend. Way out there still but it seems like there's a lot to be interested in. Maybe the thing I'm liking most is the advertised amount of QPF...if only that can translate to white gold; well, a lot of us would probably stop and give the winter an A right then and there.

Same here. Got a light coating here so far that made everything nice and white again.

My chickens will notice a difference in their run…and the peach buds may too. Mins through 12z this morn. Rad pits gone wild again

is that 3" combined, or from each of us

Relative to WIDEX, I wouldn't be surprised.....great if that's your thing. Personally, I'd prefer large winter storm threat and I'm still not sure I see one, unfortunately.

Really isn't a difference with that wind. Only us geeks will know

an excerpt from this mornings lot afd. this is the same guy that went deep weenie the one shift prior to the nov les event. what he mentioned in the below afd is flat out dumb to say, especially since it’s simply not true. it seems very clear that she should not be in the position of work that he is in. in other words, not in an important nws roll. /rant “JUST HAVE TO NOTE... IF WE WEREN'T DEALING WITH DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR PROBLEMS THIS MORNING, THE AXIS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW PROBABLY WOULD HAVE BEEN MORE LIKE 6 TO 12 INCHES (IF NOT MORE) OF SNOW. THESE NARROW CONVECTIVE SNOW BAND EVENTS ARE THE WINTERTIME EQUIVALENT OF SUMMERTIME TRAINING THUNDERSTORM EVENTS, AND CAN JUST HAMMER THE SAME AREA ALL DAY/NIGHT LEADING TO VERY PRONOUNCED IMPACTS. SO, THANK YOU DRY AIR.”

So uh let's just assume the 12Z HRRR is wrong about tomorrow afternoon.

This gonna be a thread for VA flurries by tomorrow lol (still hoping Wake gets something, fingers crossed)

Late month

Agreed. These things don't just come in quiet. I think there will be snow showers and squalls around all weekend, perhaps not widespread but there is definitely some moisture around. Orographically areas likely favored

Light snow here in Dillsburg..Thought the precip was staying south of us?

isn't that from the simpsons? Shame if we stop doing them and go to permanent EDT, might not have a winter anymore.