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We're definitely going to slide back into a drought here shortly.

I'd think someone would have posted it, but I didn't see it. NOAA has officially declared El Nino over, we are now neutral.

Drought breeds heat..............

The 20z HRRR is insistent on some ridge crawlers running east through the metros after 8pm this evening. Based off satellite, Id say that isn't happening. The CU field is just fading away.

15 days with no rain and none forecasted in the near future. It's dry out there.

congrats!

I surveyed that entire path. Started in Poolesville around 11:30pm - 2:00 am the night of the event. We even incorporated drones from the police department. After an exhaustive amount of work, there was a small gape of about 2 - 2.5 miles hence the split in the track.

0.00" today

Not even A speck on radar so far Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

TWN really hitting hard with the severe for my region, I did get sun at noon and then starting at 3pm so I may have the juice to fuel something real this time. This will be attempt 2. Decent storms over Tobermory and north of Barrie so far.

@paweather I hope the Phillies/Red Sox game came in nice and sharp yesterday! No blackouts?

One thing we have going for us, RE: busting warm, is that our soils are bone dry. Every mesonet station clearly shows the 2" and 5" soil data nearly void of moisture. That might allow things to warm up fast.

Our "new climo" hasn't really changed from 60 years ago or 100 years ago. Depending on atmospheric patterns we indeed witness almost daily occurrences of convection. Otherwise, high and dry. For a real mind trip, revisit the summer of 1963.

The heat is perfectly timed! Schools out, pools in!

Yes! I remember seeing that classic occlusion beautifully at that location on Radarscope as it cycled and the second circulation developed to the old circulations southeast.

3k nam looks like shit

Really interesting that they changed the Montgomery County tornado into 2 separate paths instead of a single 26 mile path, but based on the reports on that map, it's clear that there was an occlusion (left turn) as the tornado approached Gaithersburg, with a new tornado forming quickly to the east.

Yup. Bryson playing well. Toss those expert analysts…

Cell went up overhead and moved over the lake, sad

Far northeastern Ontario and western Quebec coming in with the goods. Solid bowing line and supercells out ahead of it.

I guess my thought is that if you drop one of the first 2 then you just need to win 1 of the next 2 to get back home advantage (on a 2-2-1-1-1). Going into 3 road games being at 1-1 you really have to win 2 to feel good about it. I would not want to go 1-1 and then only win 1 of these 3 coming home down 3-2.

Tomorrow will be very warm with a high in the middle and upper 80s. Some hot spots could reach or exceed 90°. A strong thunderstorm is possible during the afternoon or evening as a cold front crosses the region. Any thunderstorm could contain briefly heavy downpours, gusty winds, and possibly some hail. A pleasant weekend will follow. Afterward, the potential exists for a long stretch of above to much above normal temperatures. Parts of the region could experience their first heatwave of the summer next week. Following New York City's 4th warmest spring and Philadelphia's 6th warmest spring, there is a distinct possibility that June 2024 will rank among the 10 warmest Junes on record in both cities. Records go back to 1869 in New York City and 1874 in Philadelphia. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around June 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall. The SOI was +4.22 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.950 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 87% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.2° (3.2° above normal). That would tie June 2024 with June 1994 as the third warmest June on record.

Winter storm watches in Montana

very unlikely 100's would even verify even before central park grew all that grass.. i am not concerned ....

Seems a little hot.