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CANSIPs shows lingering nina-like convection in the maritime continent, while the CFS shows a classic nino response that slowly propagates eastward into winter.

5 out of the last 10 have been mid-range here (between 18-30) just 30 miles SE of NYC. I'd say that is more Ted Williams.

Satellite isn't exactly arguing you're going to get a better day out of this shit roll

Caved and put the stove on. 51.9°

The nightly lows in the low 60s make the daytime 90s not feel so bad. If only July was the same.

Looking at the TH co-op, they've only measured 2.69" YTD, but the CoCoRahs site at Flood Bay NE of town has 6.43". Other sites in the area around here are about the same or more. Issues there at the co-op.

Ties the all time DSCI record for the SE region previously set 12-18-2007

Yea, I can't even begin to say at this point. Contrary to what some are implying.....I haven't "forecast" anything yet. I have said numerous times that I don't even begin to delve in until after the spring barrier. While I have opined on several occasions throughout the thread that I doubt that a super El Nino will materialize, that is simply an early guess based on superficial observations. If June comes around and the data strongly suggests that we are going over 2.0, then my initial ENSO blogs will reflect that. I don't know why on earth anyone would struggle to distinguish casual discourse on an internet forum from an actual forecast. If it can be found and linked on my blog, then it's a forecast...if you are quoting a guess from an internet thread in March or April, then that isn't a forecast. That said, at the end of the day, the only forecast that is graded is what I post in the seasonal write up released in early November....data changes throughout the year, which is not a novel concept because seasonal forecasting is immensely complex, fluid and multifaceted. I often respond to dissenting viewpoints with sarcasm...yes, as I opt to inject humor into any semblance of conflict in an effort to mitigate tension. This is different from name calling in my mind. However, if it turns out that I am wrong, as was the case concerning the El Nino of 2023-2024, I think that both yourself, as well as @bluewavewould attest to the fact that I wholeheartedly capitulated and offered congratulations. I then authored a long blog post in an effort to illustrate where I exactly I went stray as part of a concerted effort to avail of the opportunity to learn from my mistake. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/05/winter-2023-2024-outlook-largely-failure.html Everyone makes errors, but an "idiot" refuses to own them, and then ultimately acquiesce to an alternative view point in order to gain a greater breadth of perspective. I think I have aptly demonstrated a willingness to do so by way of my online contributions to this forum.

Records: Highs: EWR: 92 (2002) NYC: 92 (2002) LGA: 89 (2002) JFK: 86 (2003) Lows: EWR: 26 (1943) NYC: 29 (1928) LGA: 31 (1943) JFK: 32 (2014) Historical: 1849: Charleston, South Carolina recorded their latest freeze ever with a temperature of 32 degrees while 6 inches of snow fell at Wilmington, North Carolina. Snow fell as far south as Milledgeville, Georgia. A damaging hard freeze occurred from Texas to Georgia devastating the cotton crop. 1851: "The Lighthouse Storm" of 1851 struck New England on this date. Heavy gales and high seas pounded the coasts of New Hampshire and eastern Massachusetts. The storm arrived at the time of a full moon, and high tide was producing unusually high storm tides. The storm was so named because it destroyed the lighthouse at Cohasset, Massachusetts. Two assistant lighthouse keepers were killed there when the structure was swept away by the storm tide. 1851 - The famous "Lighthouse Storm" raged near Boston Harbor. Whole gales and gigantic waves destroyed Minot Light with its two keepers still inside. The storm resulted in great shipping losses and coastal erosion. (David Ludlum) 1880 - A tornado near Marshall, MO, carried the heavy timbers of an entire home a distance of twelve miles. (The Weather Channel) 1933 - Franklin Lake, NH, was buried under 35 inches of snow. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) 1960 - A wind gust of 70 mph was measured at the Stapleton International Airport in Denver CO, their highest wind gust of record. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - A slow moving storm system produced heavy rain over North Carolina and the Middle Atlantic Coast States. More than six inches of rain drenched parts of Virginia, and flooding in Virginia claimed three lives. Floodwaters along the James River inundated parts of Richmond VA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - A storm in the northeastern U.S. produced a foot of snow at Pittsburg VT. Severe thunderstorms produced baseball size hail and spawned five tornadoes in the Southern High Plains Region. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - A cold front, ushering sharply colder air into the north central U.S., brought snow to parts of Montana and North Dakota. At midday the temperature at Cutbank MT was just 22 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Thunderstorms developing along a stationary front produced large hail and damaging winds across Oklahoma, with 99 reports of large hail and damaging winds during the evening and early nighttime hours. Thunderstorms produced baseball size hail south of Carney, and wind gusts to 100 mph in the Oklahoma City area which swept away many Federal tax returns being transported from a mail cart to a waiting truck about the time of the midnight deadline. Will Rogers Airport in Oklahoma City reported a record wind gust of 92 mph. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2002: High temperature records were shattered in many cities across the East and Midwest as spring turned into summer over much of the United States. This followed on the heels of many records that fell the day before across the Plains and Midwest. The abnormal heat was the result of a jet stream pushed way to the north. In stark contrast, the West had temperatures below normal with snow falling in some of the mountainous regions. Cooke City, MT reported 10 inches while 9 inches fell at Roundup, MT and 8 inches at Billings, MT. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2007: Albany, NewYork: Albany, NewYork: An intense nor'easter raging along the New England Coast causes the barometric pressure reading at Albany to to fall to 28.84 inches of mercury, the lowest barometric pressure reading ever recorded in April in the Empire State's capital city. (Ref. WxDoctor) 2011: Eleven tornadoes touched down in the Wakefield, VA NWS warning area on April 16th. Unfortunately, there were some deaths from these touchdowns, 12 in Bertie County, NC and 2 in Gloucester County, VA, both EF3 tornadoes. Significant tornadoes also struck parts of central North Carolina (outside our area). See the following link for details: Virginia Tornadoes Events by NWS at Wakefield,VA

76 and sunny…off to the races. We enjoy, for next week as Scott says is gonna be lousy.

Latest drought monitor for MD Most of VA in Severe category

81 / 58 some clouds peak heat continues today. Fall back Friday and the weekend. Front through Sunday then a period of near to below normal overall with trough nearby the NE onshore flow backing middle of next week. Overall the peiord 4/20 - 4/28 looking cooler and we'll see how much of the rain / showers can add up to.

75 with Fair enough. But we get them, and as usual it varies. Some years more. Some years less. Kind of like the clippers were gone, and extinct…and then this year they were everywhere..constantly. All the years we couldn’t buy one, we made up for it this winter, and then some.

yesterday 4/15 Highs EWR: 91 PHL: 91 NYC: 90 TEB: 90 ACY: 90 New Brnswck: 90 BLM: 90 LGA: 88 TTN: 88 HPN: 87 JFK: 79 ISP: 79

Today will be out last day with temperatures in the 80’s with highs in some valley spots getting within a couple degrees of 90. We fall back into the 70’s tomorrow and Saturday before we fall back below normal by Sunday through next Tuesday. Some shower chances later tomorrow and a better chance on Saturday night. We could have some freeze or frost concerns by Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Today will be out last day with temperatures in the 80’s with highs in some valley spots getting within a couple degrees of 90. We fall back into the 70’s tomorrow and Saturday before we fall back below normal by Sunday through next Tuesday. Some shower chances later tomorrow and a better chance on Saturday night. We could have some freeze or frost concerns by Monday night into Tuesday morning.

But not referring to stasis/stagnation which results in drought conditions, but rather to frequent changes of air mass (frontal passages).

That air mass arrived yesterday afternoon into E-NE zones, and it then got rained into overnight. That left a saturated cold slab that probably only 1000 ft elevation but is harder to mix out because it take more solar energy/thermal input to do it.

I remember this well! I was playing in a stickball marathon in philly and received the worst sunburn of my life! memories.....

April 16 1939: A rain, snow, sleet and ice storm begins across southern Minnesota. Despite many phone and power outages, farmers are jubilant that the storm brings needed moisture. For Thursday, April 16, 2026 1851 - The famous "Lighthouse Storm" raged near Boston Harbor. Whole gales and gigantic waves destroyed Minot Light with its two keepers still inside. The storm resulted in great shipping losses and coastal erosion. (David Ludlum) 1880 - A tornado near Marshall, MO, carried the heavy timbers of an entire home a distance of twelve miles. (The Weather Channel) 1933 - Franklin Lake, NH, was buried under 35 inches of snow. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) 1960 - A wind gust of 70 mph was measured at the Stapleton International Airport in Denver CO, their highest wind gust of record. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - A slow moving storm system produced heavy rain over North Carolina and the Middle Atlantic Coast States. More than six inches of rain drenched parts of Virginia, and flooding in Virginia claimed three lives. Floodwaters along the James River inundated parts of Richmond VA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - A storm in the northeastern U.S. produced a foot of snow at Pittsburg VT. Severe thunderstorms produced baseball size hail and spawned five tornadoes in the Southern High Plains Region. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - A cold front, ushering sharply colder air into the north central U.S., brought snow to parts of Montana and North Dakota. At midday the temperature at Cutbank MT was just 22 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Thunderstorms developing along a stationary front produced large hail and damaging winds across Oklahoma, with 99 reports of large hail and damaging winds during the evening and early nighttime hours. Thunderstorms produced baseball size hail south of Carney, and wind gusts to 100 mph in the Oklahoma City area which swept away many Federal tax returns being transported from a mail cart to a waiting truck about the time of the midnight deadline. Will Rogers Airport in Oklahoma City reported a record wind gust of 92 mph. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

Here in Chester County so far no climate stations have touched 90 this month. The last time we hit 90 in the month of April in Chesco was April 7, 2010 when it hit 91 at Phoenixville 1E. The earliest 90+ day in County history was way back on March 22, 1948 with a 90 at Phoenixville 1E

I think this one (El Niño) ends up stronger than 2023-24. That said, there are some very notable differences:

DAB+

In August of 2024 we had one that lasted 3 months…from mid August to mid November. Guess you forgot about that one. Didn’t rain for 3 months. And you couldn’t buy any dews or humidity for 3 solid months. Dry as dry could be. Everyday sunny, dry and gorgeous, with temps in the mid 70’s from mid August, through mid September…pretty impressive.

Yes. Although I WILL say...and this is NOT taking ANYTHING away from them...but NWS MQT is really not representative of Marquette. Its an absolute microclimate snowmagnet. There are multiple similar lake superior microclimates up there (for instance, look at our own @weatherbo) but many of them are in extremely rural to non-populated areas where we may never know how much snow possibly falls at THE best spot. I used to watch the NMU snowcam in Marquette and you could tell there was nowhere near the amt of snow on the ground as MQT officially had. But when I went up there and scoped the area out its an absolute fact. The snow rapidly increases, and its very noticeably, right near the NWS office. The 7am snowdepth today at MQT is 19". The city of Marquette webcams show completely bare ground. For anyone of us, take the absolute snowiest location in your entire metro-area and its outskirts and pretend that would be the official climate station. It would be like Detroit snow records being taken in Lake Orion (which unofficially averages probably 60", not 40-45" like Detroit). Thats how it is in Marquette.