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Bluewave has posted graphs of a linear warming trend in Nino 4, 1950-present.

Of course we'll get it in May and June.

What’s the deal with all this extreme warmth in Nino 4 during recent El Niños? When you think of the classic strong/super Nino you always think of Nino 4 not being too warm or maybe even below normal. Nino 4 is up to +1 already according to Cyclonicwx.

These winds are a joke

I think models are overdoing it -- you want the SOI to be lower, but it never got strong in 2023 so it may still be a lagging indicator, which it has been for the last 3 years.

Indeed, the CFSv2 gets Nino 3 to just above +3.0 in Nov and Dec for non-relative anomalies:

Today’s EWs continue to look good overall (certainly much better than how it’s been in the SE for most weeks in recent months) during the two weeks 4/27-5/10: 4/27-5/3: 5/4-10:

With 5 of the next 8 days in outlooks, I was hoping chaser drama on X would cease, and people would concentrate on the forecast. Silly me! What was I thinking? We shall refer to Monday as Monday or whatever day outlook it is (as time passes) and omit the date which shall not be named. Same for that year. Possible another day crops up next week too. That still doesn't make it that year. It makes it spring in the South!

Op Euro still not enthused

Ever notice this? There are fewer tornadoes in Missouri. Each of the available tornado-climatology maps on the SPC violent tornadoes research page show that this is generally true. Any time the SPC puts a 10% or greater tornado outlook for Missouri, I'm thinking, "there probably won't be a big tornado in Missouri."

Ha…that was the old WCI formula.

@ineedsnow^

line trying to back build just in time for some garden variety

Congrats

It would suck because its early May, but for those worried about dry grounds and "drought" conditions, one way to fix that is a good ole coastal. A good widespread 1-3" of rain for a day wouldn't be a terrible thing

I always strongly recommend learning a few basic phrases in a local language. Hello, goodbye, please, thank you, etc. And note that Swiss German is a little different.

This is awesome Snow is almost over with only 1" here...heaviest snow in southern MN. Another cold blast on the way Jan 18/02:45 North Branch MN 22 20 95 5 S10 1019 OVC S- Low wind chill in Auburn, NH this morning of -61.7F (

Coming precip patterns are pre-El Nino Apr-May precip before later-in-the-year Nino 3.4 El Nino's: 6-14 day CPC forecast

Just got through cutting up a downed tree. Hands were freezing after taking work gloves off. Can't believe the amount of dead and downed trees in my woods. No roots

North Branch MN? CIA?

Up to 47.7° with full sun, but man…these dews near 10° make the airmass feel more brutal.

Low temperature of 28F early this morning.