All Activity

better than January 2014?

By the way, the CMC was cold smoke! High ratios!

The GEM gives me 6.2 inches at 240 with snow still falling. -14 at 850 dictates no mixing issues.

That certainly was an out of the basement run on the 12z GFS, Probably still some ceiling room left too.............

well...it's gotta pick one or the other... these two have been tussling in the modeled flow for day's at this point. The latter of the two is obtrusive - it's there because of ( probably ) the "error proneness" of the western ridge being as far west as the GFS keeps placing it. The standard dimensions for L/W spacing doesn't allow the trough aspect to be coherent.. The models "don't know" what is dominant yet nor it's form - not very well. Anyway, if the ridge doesn't improve, the 2nd wave may end up going down the same disruptive route given time. I'm warning y'all - I'm not wrong about this. The determinism is shaky because of it. It would be a lot easier if the PNA ridge part of the total wave space would just be a little more east. By the way, the 2nd of the two is not as well supported by index timing but ... that is actually more negotiable than trying to stretch the trough down stream of that PNA ridge

better

Legit west based blocking/ - NAO on the long range OP GFS. Encouraging to see even tho in la la land

Just like Oveckin. Shoot the puck you have a chance to score.

Yeah going to be volatile tracking for sure. Jan-Feb 2014 had most events pop up in short to medium range. @Bob Chillmentions this. But the more shots on goal we get, and at peak climo as @psuhoffman said, the better chance we get.

It wasn't a good 12z cycle because the modeled trof structure got more hostile for a big east coast event on every single model. And this is occurring during a time period where the run-to-run variability begins to significantly decrease. This is a difficult setup to get high QPF along the coast. There's a reason why so few individual ensemble members on the EPS, GEFS, or GEPS over the past few days have shown big hits. It could definitely happen next week - and I'm rooting as hard as anyone. But right now, statistically, we are more likely to be skunked than to get a major snowstorm.

Oof didn't see the image of all the panel members, but it looks like under 2-3 legitimate hits for the 15th storm. Upper level progression is quicker, closer to 0Z result than 6Z which was a general improvement. Seems like the Ridge out west is more robust and pushing our trough along faster than we would want.

Me as well, but I don’t buy the gfs evolution one bit and even so, it’s ticking west with every run. The GEFS doesn’t agree whatsoever with the op. I think the CMC has the solution that looks most sensible right now. That first storm digs, climbs the coast and becomes a 50/50 low that provides the cold air feed for a WNC special on the trailing system.

I think I joked about that recently....Someone in the SE is going to get a snowstorm, SNE remains to be seen. Happy for them, but seriously where are our crumbs?

so give us your take on the models at 12Z...........

We so back. The bus is loaded.

Drink up kids! This is gonna be a fun week ahead! Hopefully....

Ok lets just keep this energy up until march!!! .

I don't think he forgot at all. Looks like a west and middle event - of course it will change iterations again in 4 hours so this probably doesn't matter. He was just saying the east looked ok too.... Overall, the pattern looks to be moving into a position conducive to something other than rain in the SE. Next step, get something within day 5/6.

Can we ban posts with model maps beyond hour 200?

These storms are highly unlikely to play out as modeled, but the multiple windows Carver's has spoken of are definitely in play. The Canadian would be 1985esque with heavy snow state wide and well below zero cold.

Yeah, basically the more the trough digs on the first storm the more it sets up the second storm to take a favorable southerly track. For once I'm not overly concerned about suppression after the cold air is established

Then you don't agree. Because he's dismissing the potential .

Can you just text me 3 days before so I know it’s worth tracking? I can’t do 5+ days of tracking with the emotional ups and downs in here

agree - still nothing to get specifically excited about except for the POTENTIAL

I haven't been this excited for a big snow event in 5 years! I know it's still far but him saying it was a disappointing 12z runs in my opinion is not right, the biggest potential for big storms not 2-4 inches snow is next week