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In last 20 years or so, NHC often skips the TD stage completely in the Atlantic. I am not sure why. However in the EPAC, they have no problem starting systems as TDs. It's not like TCs work any different between these 2 basins, and 30 kt winds w/ a defined closed sfc circulation and deep convection doesn't care which basin it is in. It is still the same thing! Skipping the TD stage is a disservice IMHO since declaring a system that is indeed a TD gives a full fcst product suite and raises awareness sooner. Is that not of high value? Models have become very good for TC genesis now, and we have ASCAT and SAR winds to see better than ever what is actually there, so no reason to take advantage of this skill. And yes, there is PTC to cover this, but that is only applicable when it is a fcst to be a TC within 72 hr affecting land. Does not apply for Dolly since it is fcst to *not^ be a TC when impacts the Lesser Antilles.

Well clearly the climate cult spread themselves 1000s of miles across Canada and were all activated simultaneously by the Fire starter signal.

Remember, there's a partial lunar eclipse tonight!

Kind of strange to think a +2.4c El Nino has no effect on the N. Pacific and N. America because it isn't winter. We haven't had a strong-prolonged N. Pacific trough in 11 years.. since Winter 15-16. That trend has carried so far in 2026.

I don't mean the North Pacific pattern per se...I didn't even use 2015 as an extra tropical Pacific analog. I mean that I expect the degree of MC influence to be similar to 2015. The PDO will be much lower.

Man one of those days, could hear the thunder for hours but barely a drop.

T

Dumping in Lebanon now. Missed most of the action to my north and south all evening but now picked up over 1.25” so far in 40 mins and still going now .

The fires that ignited deep in the forest away from development? So all of those were set at the same time, thousands of miles apart? By who? as opposed to fires being started by lightning, which is what actually happened.

Nice share the wealth lunar eclipse. Nearly everyone will be able to see it as long as clouds stay away

Is post-tropical the same as a tropical wave. which is "open." Does that mean all tropical waves are post-tropical when they first come off Africa? You get into problems here w/ nomenclature.

I’ve been getting lit up lately lol. It’s the humidity. The bugs weren’t like this the last few summers when we were essentially living in a steppe climate.

I guess it was hale, but I just drove through what I would call a torrential sleet downpour.

First it was mid/late summer, then it was September, now it’s mid-late fall. What’s with the can kicking?

In last 20 years or so, NHC often skips the TD stage completely in the Atlantic. I am not sure why. However in the EPAC, they have no problem starting systems as TDs. It's not like TCs work any different between these 2 basins, and 30 kt winds w/ a defined closed sfc circulation and deep convection doesn't care which basin it is in. It is still the same thing! Skipping the TD stage is a disservice IMHO since declaring a system that is indeed a TD gives a full fcst product suite and raises awareness sooner. Is that not of high value? Models have become very good for TC genesis now, and we have ASCAT and SAR winds to see better than ever what is actually there, so no reason to take advantage of this skill?

Nothing in York.

Going to try a fishing trip to Lake America soon. Not sure if they’ll be a svr threat but my fishing tent could prob handle an inch of hail or so. Going to be amazing either way

Only 0.22” in Lanco. .

Love nocturnal storms. But there's some beautiful structure in these clouds that only the daylight could reveal.

Knowing these shortcomings is of high value. Some ppl are riding high on AI modeling as the best thing since sliced bread and they are a panacea.

Dumping rain for the past hour in Great Falls.

Best nighttime lightning display of the year .

Today's Highs: TEB: 84 ACY: 84 PHL: 83 BLM: 81 ISP: 81 NYC: 81 EWR: 80 TTN: 80 LGA: 79 JFK: 79 New Brnswck: 78