All Activity

It seems like WAR may be a big feature once we move into the 2nd week of August. That may coincide with a much more active tropical Atlantic.

Record warm daily minimum of 72F tied yesterday in St. Cloud, Minnesota (records since 1893). Saw several other sites that had their second or third warmest lows for July 23. Should see multiple records over the coming days across the central U.S.

The low was 46° yesterday and 47° today. Beautiful sleeping weather.

We will adapt as we always have whether we cool or warm.....the bottom line is there is of course no climate crisis!

Iommi said he looked like Gollum and he did.

My station currently running a 79.3° mean for the month....warmest month ever recorded in 47 years is 80.5° set back in 1999.

It wasn’t Irene because that one didn’t occur til mid Oct. Sept. 27-30 definitely wasn’t from a TC per the NHC archives for 1999. There also was no TD then. However, with heavy rainfall like that, there likely was ample tropical moisture in the mix.

Min 51.5°

If I get lucky and get a 50" winter this season, I would be at exactly normal snow for the decade. Right now I'm averaging 4" below normal from Dec 2020-now

I really wish alot of these resources were dedicated to what we have an improving on them instead of like "recreating the wheel". One thing I'll say though is regarding severe weather and tornadoes, the amount of data which is being collected on the ground (especially with drones), I would think AI could be used to vastly enhance our understanding of what exactly is occurring leading up to tornadogenesis and help better answer the question of why some mesocyclones will drop a tornado while other's don't. If we can better understand these processes we can then build them into a model and I could see AI yielding some major break throughs. Absolutely agreed with the bolded!

I lived in New Bern then. We got hit by Hurricane Dennis twice. It first rode up the coast, then stalled and started moving back west for a landfall. I feel like there was another storm. I think it was called Irene...pretty sure. That might be where Graham got the additional rain?

i don't think the amo is a real thing

board legend

Logically, it doesn't make sense to me: Let's bring in data scientists to create a stand alone, meteorological modeling system lol. I'm sure it'll get better (build dat' training dataset), but for now, I'd say they're 1-2 decades away from making anything comparable to traditional NWP. I still think using AI to bias correct ic/bcs is the way to go. I know that has merit. Yea, it's a bit misleading... They used HRRR analysis as ground truth to make the conclusion that 'HRRR-Cast is comparable to HRRR...' I'd still rather see evaluations/comparisons at METAR/radiosonde sites.

Yeah, the record breaking December 2015 +13° around our area seemed to be the very beginning of this shift. We still continued the epic snowfall and benchmark tracks that started in 09-10 until 17-18. Then the rapid jump in the mid-latitude ridging and SSTs began around 18-19. It shifted the winter storm track through the Great Lakes and gave us the record low snowfall for a 7 year period.

Exactly right.

Its creeping up slowly.

Fair enough, I was being hyperbolic

Today will be another below normal temperature day across the area before we start a warming trend to close out the work week. The hottest day will be Friday with widespread 90's across the area. We turn wetter and a little cooler over the weekend with rain chances - but not a washout for much of the weekend.

Today will be another below normal temperature day across the area before we start a warming trend to close out the work week. The hottest day will be Friday with widespread 90's across the area. We turn wetter and a little cooler over the weekend with rain chances - but not a washout for much of the weekend.

Bottom line, something very drastic changed in the global SSTA patterns, atmospheric long wave circulations/Hadley cells, QBO evolutions and arctic sea ice after the 15-16 super El Niño. Is solar/geomag playing some sort of role too? Maybe

It's really like 2-3 months of fall, 2-3 months of summer, 1 month of winter and 5-7 months of early spring..

72° / 59° still okay but I was spoiled by yesterday. You can feel the difference while you're working.

Sorry for your family's loss, John