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6z moved to a more widespread look.

The fact we avoided this last winter is impressive

Not sure the surface will be a problem generally, but for city itself heat island always an issue unless really cold.

28 / 15 - 1.34 in the bucket - buckets , chairs , christmas decorations everywhere from 48- 52 MPH gusts here, higher elsewhere. Cold today, warmer Sunday (low 40s), colder Mon / Tue with some light rain/mix/snow showers Tuesday. Christmas eve through new years eve is overall warm with a day or two colder in between as massive ridge is positioned in the nations midsection with the warmest to our south and west and very cold north east. Still would watch for a storm in the 30/31st period. Beyond there near normal / slightly below. Rain focuses into the west with copious moisture aimed at the WC/California.

6z moved to a LBSW, or toward the better look?

Same here. I don't expect snowy Christmases (or Decembers in general) in the DMV area anyhow. But a nice, chilly day in the 40s or so is fine, and at least not a washout with rain. Or where it feels humid as you say! In 2015 here, we had that ridiculous +8 or so departure for the month (thank God that didn't happen in July!). It was literally uncomfortably warm and humid after some heavy rain late evening on Christmas Eve. Now, growing up in northeast Ohio, different story! Definitely plenty of cold and snowy Decembers and Christmases there which was always great. Actually I recall one of the most striking reversals in terms of Christmas temperatures. In 1982, Cleveland set a record high on Christmas of 66 degrees (that was a crap winter all around). Exactly one year later in 1983, they set a record low of -10, brutal cold and wind all day with some Lake effect snow, temperatures barely got into the single digits for highs.

I would like to see continued improvement on guidance and not a LBSW thing today. 6z moved towards it.

I remember when people complained about the Juju word back on Eastern. Lol There was no Grinch storm instead its a Christmas miracle. Festivus for the rest of us.

Wonder which PV he's talking about in the above? Stratospheric or tropospheric? #PolarVortex doesn't make it clear. It's almost as if he's looking for clicks or something. A strengthening -NAO can put pressure on the SPV and the TPV. Example from 0z Euro: I chose 30mb because that pressure level is lower and closer to where the potential -NAO is forming. The same processes that are helping to create the -NAO on the recent deterministic runs are also fluxing heat poleward at the tropopause. 500mb: Tropopause: Pac jet doesn't look terrible to me in deterministic progs. Right now, yeah, that's not good: We never really want to see it all the way across the Pac. But going forward, looks buckly to me. Of course that and anything can and will change. I'm encouraged this AM by the OPs finding the -NAO again and that wavy pac jet look. I seen years where that jet was just a fire hose all the way across the Pac in to California.

Great composition and depth of field!

Yeah I just took a look at the guidance and consensus is growing on a nice 2-4” event. And since it will be cold enough afterwards, that means we’d get a White Christmas.

You have “If bringing my juju back”…I think you mean “I’m” bringing my juju back…right? Correct that so the snow gods don’t punish us for poor grammar..please

"the year"? As in it only happened once?

Its beginning to look alot like Christmas Congrats Jeffafafafa to Dendrite and everyone else

Low of 23. Total rainfall was .54”. Have to host a big family gathering today. Lots of work to do this morning. Enjoy the weekend everyone!

Sweet look for here. GFS works too. Just like the troughs I used to know.

LFG!

If bringing my juju back for this one. Let’s talk about the shortwave traversing across the northern tier states and crossing the area on the 23rd. High pressure is overhead and we have a fresh antecedent airmass cold enough to support frozen precip. High pressure pushes south and we get that moist southerly return air just as system is moving in. Potential is there for advisory level snows for a broad area. Also seeing some potential for redevelopment or inverted trough as system pushes offshore.

clips the ema coast Christmas eve morning. It sort of looks like the trough on 12/14, but more pronounced. something to watch at least

My power went out 3 times, but was back on within 5 minutes. Some other people were less fortunate. We had 53 mph wind gust and a 1/4” of rain dumped on us in less than a couple minutes. Crazy weather.

Do you still have anything on the ground up there? Surprisingly didn't loose everything here... but most, probably 20 percent coverage

Remember the year with lots of snow on the ground until the 23 and gone by xmas? That was the ultimate kick in the balls. Lots of ice on the roads 31F

Curious...has our area ever done well with a strong PV before? Seems the -NAO may not be enough based on what JC is suggesting here...

I think the snow sticks on colder surfaces for the city unless the precip rushes in faster than modeled.

Some good runs overnight. The ensemble means are washed out at range which is understandable, but their individual members have it. There are 4-5 warm scenarios per suite which are skewing the greater number of cold members. We saw the same things happened with recent cold fronts....ensembles couldn't see them in the mean. The deterministic runs of the Euro, GFS(6z and 12z), and CMC have strong NAO solutions - some extreme which I doubt verify. That said...any model without the NAO right now can't be discounted, but the ones with it....are more likely to have correct solutions.