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a snow map from the GFS is going to be hilarious

you are all better than PB GFI was

man... this all happened when that relay took place overnight with the GFS. this is also about when it finally pulled the plug on this event today, too ... right when I observed the ballast of the S/W mechanics were over land i'm growing more and more convinced that the data assimilation is getting caught with its pants down. i'm also beginning to suspect we are exposing an explanation for the mysterious mid range amplitude loss that seems to be pretty dependable - altho i see that in other guidance, too.

Looks like strung out crap, not consolidated. Hopefully there’s some light snow from that but that’s what we’ve been getting over and over again the last few winters.

Overrunning is the simplest way outside of a classic Miller A. You aren't worrying about any messy wavr interactions--just moisture into cold air. And I believe we had that happen a time or two in 2014.

I thought it was curtains?

So far, 12z models are pretty “blah” for both Saturdays light event and Sundays system appears to slide to the south and east fairly flat. I hate kicking the can down the road as before you know it, its already March, but we may need to wait until later next week to get the southern branch more involved as the cold presses more .

Biggest snowstorm I've personally encountered that did not involve lake effect/enhancement was 17" on March 4-5, 2015 in Kentucky. I just happened to be visiting family at the right time. March most definitely has the "juice" - but sun angle and temps coming together with the juice is what is more difficult to achieve.

God we suck at snow. We are a bunch of losers. .

I honestly have lost all confidence in the GFS. Go with the EURO and CMC.

EPS has been very stable for a full 24 hours. The spread is not that large either. I don't expect a big shift at 12z. But it could still shift tonight or tomorrow. A minor model error in a shortwave in northern Canada today can have a big impact on the height field on Sunday. Trofs that touch the Gulf can morph quickly. I usually look at the NAM for short term (<48 hours) trends with these types of events.

I could see AI being heavily influenced in thinking because you have a nrn stream moving in and srn stream coming up the coast that there will be clean phasing. Like Runnaway said, maybe there is also resolution at play here..or something to this degree? I mean the vorticity field almost seems "too smoothed"...too clean.

GFS ensemble mean.

FYI, today's drought monitor map shows at least abnormally dry conditions in every state but one -- California: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

I meant more than you think would be frustrated with a couple of inches. lol

Second half of next week looks like a fun stretch for whoever can stack waves

Halfway to a January shutout!

Mods sometimes have trouble with under doing the precipitation shield on the NW side. Not saying we are still in the game but I’m struggling to find some outs. .

It's fairly intuitive but go to my attachments in the dropdown under your username in the top right, then you can sort by size, and it shows you the thread it is posted in, so you can decide if it's like 2 years ago if it's worth keeping it.

The EC AI ensembles were bullish too at 6z. It just concerns me the euro and euro ensemble have pretty much nothing.

Have we ever had an overruning event? I always hear how that our easy way to snow yet the last i remember was maybe 2003. Before that like 1993 lol. Moral of my usual pointless posts is that there's NO easy way to snow this far south with like 5 feet of elevation lol

Please send medical assistance to your father . Even the school nurse at this point would work

Tossed as a blizzard and a whiff.

just psyched that there will be no more blackouts. I can't get MASN through Youtube TV, so this is awesome.

Go back to class