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Yeah today blew long thick dongs. Never could fully shake clouds. Thankfully heading to Dallas early morning until late week so avoid hell on Earth and back to enjoy a much nicer weekend

My wag from a couple weeks ago was that we needed about 200% of normal rain for May and June to prevent a dust bowl summer. Seems well on the way to do that for May at least.

Models are often overdone on winds....

Detroit Free Press

Looks like the enhanced area expanded again. Still mentions super cells and strong tornadoes, with two rounds of storms.

48° and the wind is howling

Based on the marine forecast Utpton doesn’t seem that enthusiastic. Max winds 35 knots. The difference between 35 and 45 knots is substantial on the resulting seas. That will have a large impact on wether the jones beach air show can run.

Wed-Thu: Looks somewhat interesting as GEFS seems to have cluster of closed 5H low near e LI. 50MPH wind gusts and 2" rain possible LI area, esp Thursday. We'll see. No thread since some ensembles are weaker and recent dryness has low flows there and high FFG, except nw NJ which may be vulnerable??? Check again tomorrow.

Coc’d.

Lucking out down here, high of 70 so far with 90% sunshine, wind is refreshing but annoying

i almost wonder if summers will continue to dim over eastern n/a ... and winters will continue to warm ...until there is no seasonal change.

It's a matter of 'relative magnitude' You'd have to look at just the min departures from norm. then look at just the max departures from norm. Which ever has the greatest SD wins ... In this case we already know. The lows, particularly spanning the last couple of decades as Brian mentioned, have been increasing more so than the highs. He cites clouds and precip and I can't argue that. Ultimately, high temp is a response to solar diurnal flux so... if that flux is essentially the same - which it is ... - that leads to Terrain factorization as the modulating force. It's not voodoo. ha it's probably clouds but ...I'd just maybe add to that, increased aerosol pollution and the fact that we have a whole continent upstream delivering both industrial and bio generated farts to the New England rectum upon exiting so we may have additional part per in that discussion - just supposition...

There will be for sure. This kind of goes back to what I was talking about also. Yes, this week into the weekend will definitely have below average temperatures but the type of weather coming up is far from unusual for late May/Memorial Day Weekend. There's been many times when Memorial Day Weekend is chilly. I even feel like there might be more that are what you would call chilly than warm. However, most people that don't pay attention to the weather are not going to remember that. They'll remember the ones that had highs in the 80s each day and forget about all of the ones that had highs in the 50s or 60s. Then they'll say how they can't believe how cold it is and they never remember it ever being this cold for the holiday.

This would be very acceptable. A soaking rain that's not too light or too heavy would do wonders for vegetation. We've really greened up over a lot of the region due to the past few weeks. This would help further. Additional periods to monitor will be Tue/Wed next week and next weekend for more rain. We need to take every drop we can before the summer sets in.

Oh trust me, Ive thought of that too. 12/31/1875: 65 / 46 01/01/1876: 65 / 41 01/02/1876: 62 / 38 But actually, the entire last third of Dec 1875 was very mild. The 20-day stretch from Dec 21, 1875 to Jan 9, 1876, using todays current 30-year norms, was +12.1F and is the warmest on record for that period, after nothing but record cold in 1875! Jan 1876 was the least snowy Jan on record with just 0.3", and then 3 snowstorms (4.1", 5.2", 9.0") hit the last third of March. Like I said, cant make up the weather! The Saturday, January 1, 1876 Detroit Free Press had a blurb about the weather under their "Sayings and Doings" column. And I love it because they were mocking the "oldest inhabitant" (back then, they always made fun of the "oldest inhabitants" for their weather insight whenever there was an anomalous weather event). Im sure it didnt actually hit 74, but tells you how warm it was.

Aren't we still feeling this? https://www.nasa.gov/earth/tonga-eruption-blasted-unprecedented-amount-of-water-into-stratosphere/

Amen! Thank you! And snowfall is another thing too - there were many snowy winters of yesteryear....but many low snow, relatively bare ones too. The year to year changes of our weather in MI and how different they are, despite living in the epitome of a 4-seasons climate, is what initially drove my fascination in the weather. I began talking with DTX climate historian (now retired) Bill Deedler when I was in junior high. My actual observing of the weather soon followed, and weather boards & watching forecast models came later than that. The rhetoric of some that imply that everything always warms or snow goes down is a joke, and I think this is what leads to so much of the general public to mock cc, especially when its abnormally cold or snowy. With the cold weather we will be seeing the last third of May here, I can guarentee that social media posts on the unseasonable chill will be mocked with "so much for global warming". Climate has unfortunately become very political, like so much else. But Ill stick to weather. Back to the actual ENSO discussion, it would appear that anything from weak nino thru weak nina is on the table, but a lean towards cold neutral is likely. Im liking many of the early factors for a good winter for the Great Lakes next year, but obviously so much to iron out.

Today's euro not a soaking/drenching, but decent rain late week.

I am the exact same! I love discussing weather data past/present, dont really care about cc. It has its place in weather discussion, but constant derailment of threads is annoying. Im actually quite satisfied with my climate overall, so I dont really care what happens in other countries or what not. But when I see stats (my weather speciality) being twisted, I call things out. Or the fact that any below average temp period now has to have some unexpected reasoning behind it lol.

Nice. Congratulations

GFS says it's gonna be rather chilly come Friday morning

Not on the geographic footprint size and the magnitude of the cold across the CONUS. January 1994 and 2004 were focused in the Northeast ranking as the 5th and 11th coldest Januaries for the Northeast. But they weren’t high ranking cold Januaries for the CONUS. The 1970s were the last top 10 coldest winters for the entire CONUS. Those Arctic outbreaks were widespread across North America and the Northern Hemisphere. The last top 20 cold for the CONUS was in the 1980s. The last top 30 cold for the CONUS was in 2009-2010 which ranked as the 21st coldest winter. The last top 40 coldest winter was in 2013-2014 with a CONUS ranking as 32nd coldest. All the noteworthy high ranking winters since 2012 were for top warmest. Including the new 1st place warmest in 2023-2024 and 6 other top 30 warmest winters. Top 21 coldest and warmest winters in the CONUS since the 1970s Coldest #1…..1978-1979 #7…..1977-1978 #12…1976-1977 #14…1983-1984 #19…1984-1985 #21…2009-2010 Warmest #1….2023-2024 #2….2015-2016 #5….2011-2012 #7….2019-2020 #9….2016-2017 #18…2022-2023 #21….2021-2022

I like this post. This is why there's so much disagreement among the general population(and even some posters here)about climate change. How many people that don't understand anything about weather or climate would guess that there were 4 winters in Detroit between 1874 and 1882 that were warmer than today's average with some significantly so? Not many I bet. People just can't grasp that we're talking about an average global temp and in many cases, it's tenths of a degree we're talking about. It's still cold in the arctic and warm along the equator. It still snows at the North Pole in the summer and can even snow around here in May. That doesn't mean the earth isn't warming and it doesn't mean the earth is cooling. It's just "normal" weather variation. You will still have cold records, it's just that warm records are likely to outpace the cold records. If you aren't someone that pays attention to the weather(like most people)then you don't know this stuff because the media is just as clueless about any of this as the average person.