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I thought I would create this thread to give people a break from the doom and gloomy mess that the LR thread is. At least we have a chance to get on the board for January until the good pattern later that month. It's something to track so who cares. FWIW 18z HRRR and 12z FV3 are on board with something. 18z NAM not as much but still there.

That Twitter met knows his stuff. He predicts that mid-late January has the best chance for wintry weather. (Checks earth annual orbital procession)...bold call.

MU vs. Eric Webb battle on X

Yup still here. I’m watching but have had the rug pulled on me too many times to get excited. Need another day of model runs. Could be the critter that bites.

Winter beauty:

I have actually stopped reading his (or MUs) twitter posts. .

GFS and Euro both have it

Looks like a wind advisory the rest of the week.

The For You algorithm has me down pat

I mean are all these Twitter guys your friends or do you just type in weather and read what pops up? There's a million of these jokers out there it seems lol

Typical depiction of almost all winters since 2019. Endless can kicking. Each time there needs to be "a miracle" or "thread the needle" and then we move onto the next one. Until we get into March and we realize it's all over lol

I think the short range models are putting too much into the clipper on NYE. Seems like nothing but mood flakes until it hits the water and then maybe a few inches for Cape Cod and downeast Maine. Precipitation coming from a northwest origin tends to dry out big time. Sunday (verbatim as it is depicted currently) is just as dried out.

Looking ahead MJOwise, I hope today’s GEFS forecast doesn’t verify as it has it going into a strengthening 6 as we approach mid Jan: Phase 6 in Jan is one of the warm E US phases along with 4-5. Say it ain’t so, GEFS! The EPS is a little better but not great as it heads into a weak 7. I want to see 8-1-2:

This sounds accurate. La Ninas are usually warmer than normal in February and torch in March. December and January are the best months for snowfall in a La Nina. Once you punt January (not saying we are, at least not yet) in a La Nina, you run into significant trouble for rest of winter. Now would be the month to cash in. In a La Nina, anything past end of January becomes more difficult.

It’s also incredibly easy to take the under right now too. Regardless of the look, we’ve minimized every potential

Hoping this band can hang out before shifting north. Looks like tomorrow afternoon and overnight is our next shot, will be happy with the low end of that.

Yea keep the winter vibes going…

We gotta be deep in the gutter for me to look at the RAP but it's also got some light stuff. Def wouldn't turn down a dusting to close the month

12z EPS teleconnections. The NAO and AO remain negative, albeit weakly, as the EPO goes deeply negative. The WPO also goes weakly negative. The PNA goes neutral to slightly positive. When I first started following weather output on the internet, I used to only look teleconnection graphics and the NOGAPS. I don't think I did any worse then than I do today in the long range. But as for the teleconnection package as a whole...great look and they rarely line-up that well. Let's see if we can resell this in.......

Followup: The full torch period MJO is now in as I had to wait for the reporting lag. It turns out that the MJO during the heart of the torch (12/23-27) wasn’t in a typically cold track after all. Instead of a typically cold in Dec counterclockwise track of 8-1-2 of moderate to weak amp (including near or inside circle left side), it tracked clockwise weak 7-6-4-3, an unusual Dec track that one would not associate with cold as it kind of went in reverse and in typically not cold phases even though they were weak: 2025 12 23 -0.28945175 0.37228486 7 0.47157007 Gottschalk10_method:_OLR_&_ACCESS_wind 2025 12 24 -0.12800699 0.45807526 7 0.47562456 Gottschalk10_method:_OLR_&_ACCESS_wind 2025 12 25 0.16766728 0.36077648 6 0.39783412 Gottschalk10_method:_OLR_&_ACCESS_wind 2025 12 26 0.17544751 -6.13679737E-02 4 0.18587054 Gottschalk10_method:_OLR_&_ACCESS_wind 2025 12 27 4.42237742E-02 -0.35203809 3 0.35480496

He needs to take a break and let one of the students do the posting.

MU continues to make very...interesting posts. Needless to say, he's not enthusiastic over the advertised pattern in January. Meaning, he isn't buying it.

NAM brings us snow tonight

Can tell what type of yr its been so far when you really need the Reggie and the HRRR to be right.

Good news on the Lake Erie ice front. Recent warmth has brought total ice coverage down to less than 25% of normal to date (4% coverage versus mean of 13% for the date). All of the lakes are running a little behind normal, as of yesterday's analysis.