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Watches up for OKX zones now.

We talked about wanting to see egg on Eric Webb's face, well he's swimming in an omelets swimming pool. The annoying thing he is not even acknowledging it. He's just carrying on commenting about the ice storm as if he didn't confidently predict there was no way this was going north and implying that NE snow weenies are stupid, dishonest, or both (unless he issued a mea culpa post that I missed).

La Niña de-amp beginning at 0z?

Nice summer like weather.

I'm thinking that'll get more ironed out by the near terms, like <--48 hours... There is a ton of UVM associated with the initial ...stunningly powerful isentropic explosion moving overhead with that deep south source forced over this artic dome we're about to slab into place. And the models are developing a low pressure underneath all the rising motion as they should. But there's not a ton of actual Q-G forcing ( diffiuence mechanical/synoptic lift) so we end up with the weak low.... The problem is transitioning from that to then actually having Q-G forcing them moving into the region...It's sort of overlapping the isentropic lift region moving off... verrrrrry complex in there as the situation relays from being one mechanism, to a difference kind associated with cyclogen. The problem with the latter is that cyclogen needs the dynamics ( moisture and instability), which the leading stuff then escapes with some of that seaward ... kind of serving a plate not sufficient enough to feed the second circumstance. However, as we get closer, these two might overlap yet more... ie, consolidate... ? questions that may be better answered in the 48 hour window.

yea there's that too lol It's just one data point...just one run of one model...but the AIFS trend is not good... 24 hours ago when it was showing what we wanted we were rightfully pointing out how good it's been and that having it on our side was a big deal...so losing it to the more amplified NW camp is not what we want. But again...it's just one piece of evidence not the whole show... if the op euro and EPS come in good that would outweigh the significance some.

Yeh, miss me with that craziness until we have full model agreement sub 72 hrs out. .

AI is probably 15 inches out here before the flip. For those out this way. The sleet is going to be heavy. A compacted glacier is coming.

At least its been a more exciting winter and the forum is hopping

South of me too, FTL.

Yeah that's not good...man I just don't wanna lose a warning level snowfall with this at the last minute. 6-10" bare minimum

EURO def south with the initial WAA pus, at least

Don't get me wrong I'm not trying to be silly and I'm definitely not saying its showing GHD IIIIII. Frankly, my enthusiasm revolves solely around ChiStorm's daily-at-best check-ins, so ya know where I'm at. Just looking on TT, the Euro AI seemed to bump a bit NW while everything else this suite hasn't, which I thought would be amusingly par for course if it's reflected in the base Euro too.

Tremendous storm with thundersnow. NOVA had one inch of snow in afternoon and I thought storm was a bust until lightning strike at 12:15a.m. And waking up to foot of snow and tree across the driveway.

Just started looking beyond our “walking on snow” system. Interesting stuff showing up next weekend to say the least.

I guess what’s the old rule though? It’s not the first storm, usually the 2nd?

Looks like slightly less phasing on the Euro out to 66

lets see if those recon flights had any affect on the Euro - didn't seem to make much of a difference with the other models at 12Z

Which probably allows the confluence to leave.

Here she comes

Euro could be interesting...

You know good and well how this next one pans out! Actual suppression this time and a Pensacola winter dream. I don’t make the rules.