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Let the weenies have this one lol

i'll tell you one thing that snow Tuesday early am will be heavy with big flakes! if it's below freezing it's going to accumulate!

There's a shakeup for the Pacific in the pipeline as we start getting into January. I think this could offer an opportunity for a period of +PNA after the 1st week when these waves break but we'll see. Maybe this ties into Ray's @40/70 Benchmark ideas mid-month so maybe it's part of that timing to transition to +TNH. But I think sometime week 2 we see some changes and maybe clues to that happening during the 1st week of the month. We're being plagued with a series of -EAMT retracting the Pac jet and locking the Pacific block in place on guidance in perpetuity. High pressure into the west of the Himalayas removes the momentum. While high pressure on the east side would add it. This is likely going to change as we start heading into January. An active convective phase looks to cross an Indian Ocean to MC transit to close out December. These set in motion a series of events that eventually leads to +EAMT and a Pacific jet extension. Even at the end of the current EPS 12z I think we can see some signs of a changing Pacific regime. With high pressure building in Siberia in better position and a Jet beginning to be reinvigorated off the coast of Asia.

Even if you hit 38 -40 there with 1-2” it will be white . Low dews . Low sun . We all had 38-44 prior to the screamer and everyone still had pack

Your high was 31 today with a dry NW flow... There is potential for upper 30s and low 40s late Tuesday and Wednesday. The GFS is much colder than EURO , let's hope the colder trends continue and that we max out 32-36 instead..

Once again, the GEFS is in total disagreement with its own op, red flag: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefsens&p=sn10_acc-mean-imp&rh=2025122018&fh=90&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 NWS Blend of Models: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nbm&p=sn10_acc-mean-imp&rh=2025122018&fh=90&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

That’s only 3 weeks into winter. Too many people are way to negative & expectations of winter are over the top.

Lol

1” of snow will last everywhere.. even coasts . I had 1/4” .. at most 1/2” last night that lasted today. Wet snow and low sun angle FTW . Precisely why you want snow now and not Morch . A day in the 30’s little to nothing melts https://imgur.com/a/dm7YoFS#KIRP4vD

DFW made it to at least 82*F today, shattering the previous record high of 79*F.

We watch, we monitor. No need to jump. No negatives in the grand scheme today since this AM.

Tomorrow will be a bit milder with temperatures returning to the lower 40s with another brief push of somewhat cooler air following for Monday. No exceptionally cold or warm weather appears likely for the first week of astronomical winter. In terms of precipitation, light snow or snow showers are possible on Tuesday. The closing week of December could experience periodic warmer and cooler days. It now appears that the cooler anomalies will persist mainly in central and northern New England. The probability that December 2025 will have a maximum monthly temperature below 60° has increased further. The last time that happened was in 2019 when the monthly high was 58°. If 2025 has a monthly high below 60°, that would be only the fifth such occurrence since 2000 (2003, 2004, 2005, and 2019 are the cases since 2000). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around December 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +8.15 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.749 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 99% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 34.5° (4.6° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.9° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

I don't do forecasts. But. Looking at all the forecasts I've seen right now. Looks like a good bet for a coating to 2" for NYC proper. 1-3"/2-4" nw of 287. Currently: clear, calm, 27.9

It's in Europe. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202512200000&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202512290000 Coincidentally, Europe was really cold before we had our cold starting mid-late November, so maybe we live through AN in January while we wait for another chance late Januaryinto February. Just a thought...or prayer.

GFS is colder again, would like to keep that trend going .. euro is like 5 degrees warmer Tuesday afternoon and 10 degrees warmer Tuesday night

Maybe it will help out with the 26th as well....wishful thinking? Lets just get a regionwide 2-4 and hope for clouds on Christmas eve to maintain the 'pack' for Christmas

seems like a few models are shifting the colder air south along with more moisture and interaction with the warm front to the south 1 -4 inches still on the table as of now IMO...

Just line me up with the norlun after a couple.

Feels pleasant out there today after yesterday’s chill. Up to 47F at PIT.

18z AIGFS also a good bump SW.

Carver, my take on things is if by mid January things haven't changed and don't look good moving forward, I mentally wave the white flag. I know people do different things, but that's my stance on it.

I had a 50’ section of buck and rail fencing that was lifted, moved about 10’, and broken. This particular type of fencing is wide open and not prone to catching the wind. Based on the damage I estimate a 100mph+ gust. The odd thing is that it is only 70’ from my PWS which only logged a max of 56mph and is quite accurate. These gusts must have been extremely narrow and localized.

They are meant for you to look at once a week not every day

Placing yourself in someone else’s personal mental state is a science unto itself. This place has been an outlet and a hindrance to my own mental health. I know where TB12 is and I feel his pain. I’m pulling hard for the GFS to be the outcome.