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2025-2026 ENSO
michsnowfreak replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Amen! Thank you! And snowfall is another thing too - there were many snowy winters of yesteryear....but many low snow, relatively bare ones too. The year to year changes of our weather in MI and how different they are, despite living in the epitome of a 4-seasons climate, is what initially drove my fascination in the weather. I began talking with DTX climate historian (now retired) Bill Deedler when I was in junior high. My actual observing of the weather soon followed, and weather boards & watching forecast models came later than that. The rhetoric of some that imply that everything always warms or snow goes down is a joke, and I think this is what leads to so much of the general public to mock cc, especially when its abnormally cold or snowy. With the cold weather we will be seeing the last third of May here, I can guarentee that social media posts on the unseasonable chill will be mocked with "so much for global warming". Climate has unfortunately become very political, like so much else. But Ill stick to weather. Back to the actual ENSO discussion, it would appear that anything from weak nino thru weak nina is on the table, but a lean towards cold neutral is likely. Im liking many of the early factors for a good winter for the Great Lakes next year, but obviously so much to iron out. -
Today's euro not a soaking/drenching, but decent rain late week.
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2025-2026 ENSO
michsnowfreak replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I am the exact same! I love discussing weather data past/present, dont really care about cc. It has its place in weather discussion, but constant derailment of threads is annoying. Im actually quite satisfied with my climate overall, so I dont really care what happens in other countries or what not. But when I see stats (my weather speciality) being twisted, I call things out. Or the fact that any below average temp period now has to have some unexpected reasoning behind it lol. -
Nice. Congratulations
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GFS says it's gonna be rather chilly come Friday morning
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Not on the geographic footprint size and the magnitude of the cold across the CONUS. January 1994 and 2004 were focused in the Northeast ranking as the 5th and 11th coldest Januaries for the Northeast. But they weren’t high ranking cold Januaries for the CONUS. The 1970s were the last top 10 coldest winters for the entire CONUS. Those Arctic outbreaks were widespread across North America and the Northern Hemisphere. The last top 20 cold for the CONUS was in the 1980s. The last top 30 cold for the CONUS was in 2009-2010 which ranked as the 21st coldest winter. The last top 40 coldest winter was in 2013-2014 with a CONUS ranking as 32nd coldest. All the noteworthy high ranking winters since 2012 were for top warmest. Including the new 1st place warmest in 2023-2024 and 6 other top 30 warmest winters. Top 21 coldest and warmest winters in the CONUS since the 1970s Coldest #1…..1978-1979 #7…..1977-1978 #12…1976-1977 #14…1983-1984 #19…1984-1985 #21…2009-2010 Warmest #1….2023-2024 #2….2015-2016 #5….2011-2012 #7….2019-2020 #9….2016-2017 #18…2022-2023 #21….2021-2022
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I like this post. This is why there's so much disagreement among the general population(and even some posters here)about climate change. How many people that don't understand anything about weather or climate would guess that there were 4 winters in Detroit between 1874 and 1882 that were warmer than today's average with some significantly so? Not many I bet. People just can't grasp that we're talking about an average global temp and in many cases, it's tenths of a degree we're talking about. It's still cold in the arctic and warm along the equator. It still snows at the North Pole in the summer and can even snow around here in May. That doesn't mean the earth isn't warming and it doesn't mean the earth is cooling. It's just "normal" weather variation. You will still have cold records, it's just that warm records are likely to outpace the cold records. If you aren't someone that pays attention to the weather(like most people)then you don't know this stuff because the media is just as clueless about any of this as the average person.
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Weather did not impact the winning score because my partner & I shot -8 and won. lol Spring Four-Ball - Spring Fourball - Gross Leaderboard | New Hampshire Golf
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ya probley just increased moisture keeping low temps up but suppressing highs a bit compared to where they could be?
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He doesn't post in this thread. He gets called out constantly by those in the threads he posts in though.
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Well I for one have been enjoying this Spring--it is one of the best one's we've had in awhile. Not too hot...cool but not annoyingly raw...it has been absolutely beautiful weather mixed with some much-needed rain. Can't ask for much better! This weather earns a:
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About the same here. Month avg thru yest: +3.7 Max: +1.0 Min: +6.5 By 5/25 the numbers might be: Avg, +2 Max: -2 Min: +6
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I don't hand out weenie reactions often but I gotta give ya one for that...you like heat and humidity? Booooooo
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Anyone familiar with GIS? One of my two courses in the Fall is Principles of GIS. GIS looks sick and really cool...I just am absolutely, abysmal and not equipped for coding so I'm a little nervous I've tried a million times to try and learn/understand python and get nowhere.
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Anyway 49.4° overcast and windy. Pretty miserable.
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At EWR so far May has only had 1 below normal day (5/9). In April EWR had 10 below normal and only 4 in March. Probably 7 or 8 of the next 12 might be below normal to get closer to the 10 mark for May, overall not bad.
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Really?? I'll gladly take another few weeks with highs in the 70s
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It is kinda looking like my area is going to make it to June with no real severe weather.
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Yup. That’s been the overwhelming theme the last 2 decades. Not going down the cc trap but… CO2 up Water vapor up Arctic warmer/less ice And so it all makes sense. More GHGs, more moisture in the air, more heat trapped, more clouds, more precipitation…more months with AN temps biased toward mins that seem cooler because of all of the clouds and precip.
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I think the city has had the least rain of this entire region this month. Been caight in between a lot.
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Yeah not sure how it breaks down by hours … it is what it is. It’s rue tho that lows owning the ballast of above average weight. It’s been going on for a long while at a regional/climate scale
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Didn't he have 73-78 for today or was that later in the week?
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Yep actually hasn’t been too bad. But we’re never out of the woods here for those until June.
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Was in Columbus Ohio for a family wedding on Saturday and the weather was glorious, actually very similar to today’s NYC weather. Didn’t mind wearing a suit
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