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See how even a small temp bias can make all the difference when it comes to historical rankings? Looking at the past few months, BOS temp is running around 1 F too warm. So remove that bias, and BOS so far this summer is #5 warmest or higher. Non-trivial difference. -
Really hoping this crap clears up tomorrow AM. Would be good to have one nice day before more crud on Saturday.
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Four photos of the smoke today:
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Radar estimating over 5” down around Manahawkin.
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Aqi 224 now
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Smoke got worse. AQI now in the 200's here. I can't imagine how much worse it is to the north and west. Woof.
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Literally hours but most of it is offshore at this point.
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Today's Highs PHL: 95 ACY: 93 TTN: 91 New Brnswck: 90 BLM: 90 TEB: 90 EWR: 89 LGA: 88 JFK: 87 ISP: 86 NYC: 85
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We have plenty of redundancy up there for GOES satellites. Heck, there are even satellites up there launched over 15 years ago that are still operational and in use GOES-15, launched in 2010, was the GOES-W satellite until 2018. Then this satellite ownership was transferred to the DoD, and redesignated EWS-G2, and now sites at 62E. So worse case if GOES-19 failed, we could move other satellites to take it place.
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Damn Canada. Why can’t you rake your forests! -
KIAD is at 90F at 9pm. Can we do it?
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Already 63° and clear Chilly! -
Anyone else feeling like crap due to the smoke? I'm pretty sure its from that as I started feeling sluggish from the dim light yesterday, it was brighter today so half to a 3rd the brightness but its the extreme AQI values causing headache feeling, low motivation, low thoughts, hard to focus or think clearly, strange bodily temp sensations sometimes, pseudo-malaise, etc. Can't imagine what is happening to the vulnerable right now. With that said I saw more out this aft old and young alike and strangely many vehicles have their side windows down. Guess they want to fill their passages up with ash.
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How long has that damn cell been sitting there in South Jersey?? Yikes
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Another nice day in the west. Thunderstorms and low dew points.
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I am beyond done with this summer.
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We smoke. Brutal out there this evening. -
I couldn't smell any smoke when I walked home at 4:45 pm. Got a little whiff when I took the trash out 45 minutes ago though.
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Reminds me of anvil shading. Thick, large, sharp anvils from intense storms can induced a thermal gradient on their edges well downwind. Another mesoscale wildcard the models will not handle well or at all!
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I'm thankful i live somewhere the power rarely goes out, and when it does it's rarely for more than an hour the one exception was October 2011; 98 1/2 hours of no power with 3 kids under 8, fun times
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The training on this storm was incredible. And it was smack dab in the middle of the thick smoke plume, so that did not seem to inhibit things, and maybe enhanced things (cloud condensation nuclei different?). Smoke as to impacting convection has some studies, and results vary. One was smoke plumes seem to increase the frequency of +CGs. I attached the CG plot zoomed up color coded every 20 min going back 2 hr ending 724pm EDT. The density is wild! Radar rainfall estimates show up to 6" in some locations. visloop5.mp4
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Don't count on it. Yesterday it was so dim that there weren't even any optical effects. Time to break out the PH test kit. There is a pocket to my east of less smokey air as Barrie ON was at 180 last check, unfortunately its not moving my way it is only sagging south to Oshawa. I'm still around 380 but I'm on Day2 of this shit and trust me its far worse than you think it is sustained for this long. I'm a healthy adult who has tried to remain indoors (I briefly went out) and I'm feeling ill effects I know are from this. You almost want to buy a good air purifier and stow away in the basement somewhere.
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Takes all the fun out of golf.
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The NAM is woefully outdated as a model. I do not think it has been updated to tweaked in 10 years or so. It is mainly for a "quick, early look" and I think that's why I has stuck around for so long! Generally, I do not use the NAM after 36 hr, as it does odd things. And the model was never designed for TCs, so never use it for them. The NAM and all its derivative models are going away in Oct (was going to be Aug but pushed back), The RRFS will replace it. The RRFS has its issues, but from what I have seen, it does much better than the NAM.
