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86 / 77 steaming away Florida syle

85/77/96. Yikes

Watch coming soon per MCD

I have an appointment tomorrow with a lung specialist. A recent test showed something of concern (non-cancerous, they believe) so I'll have a better idea of what's happening soon. Current thought is that the chest infection that started all of this back in April might have caused permanent damage. Right now there's just too much unknown for me to really say more. I'll update when I'm able to. Overall, I feel better than I have in years, ironically.

Storms initiating jokerandherewego.gif

every simulated radar fires up storms just east of here. Hope they are all wrong lol

You should recreate that photo, but with no snow…just like the last 3 winters. Have the same pose and shovel and snowblower.

Good times. Good memories. What a winter.

9:15 I think...but yeah could be a traffic nightmare

Hangin in and hangin on.... The weather and cooko for cocco puff light and sound show last night, coupled w/ the monsoonal rains, scared my arse right outta my cave....so here i am. hell...i'll say it.....UNCLE! What a diff a year makes. Not sure which evil is better, but like my wife always says, too much is better than not enough, so I'll go w/ that, and see how tonight goes. Hope you are doing well/better. and hope the rest of you blokes are well also.

91/75

9pm is the nyc fireworks? My plane lands at jfk on the 4th at like 815. Im wondering if I hit monster traffic leaving jfk to head back to nj.

Conestoga River is now over flood stage at Lancaster.

Is that when you went on a Jebwalk around the neighborhood and your wife went looking for you, thinking you were dead in a snowbank?

Wholesale change time. Beslow’s computer model is like the GFS. Cora has run his course. Let the young guys play.

Nice work pal. Enjoyed the read. Thanks for the insight.

85/77

I'm sitting at 30.88" YTD - you have; however, doubled my rainfall total since Saturday that really narrowed the gap. I really "cleaned up" during May. Good to hear from you during your hibernation. A lot of us are certainly at the point of crying "uncle". Of course, we'll probably flip a switch and enter a prolonged dry spell over the 2nd half of summer. It would be nice if we could ration all of this out, ya know?

I like your sense of humor. We would probably have a really good time if we had one of the forum get-togethers. My buddies and I were all pretty big practical jokers back in the school days. The patterns over the last decade have really been a teachable moment for all of us. While the climate models have the general idea about warming over time correct, the regional nuisances have been pretty far from what the expectations were. This new subtropical ridging and rapid SST warming in the mid-latitudes wasn’t expected. The old batch of climate models had the strongest ridging and SST warming further north near the subarctic regions. So it’s a bit like running a big science experiment and finding out which ideas were correct and which ones missed the mark. This new -PDO era in the 2020s is more defined by the warmer WPAC than a cooler EPAC. I think this is why we have been seeing more variability between -PNA intervals and +PNA periods. So we get these quick month to month change ups especially out West. But unfortunately we have still been getting strong Southeast Ridges and Western Atlantic Ridges under both PNA phases.

The NAM forecast soundings are not pretty 2:00 PM (Second Image) Thermodynamics: Moisture has deepened significantly through the low-mid troposphere. CAPE increasing. Inversion breaking down. CIN: Nearly eliminated. Wind: Weak veering. Still light but flow is organizing. Interpretation: This is the convective initiation (CI) window. Expect first storms around or after this point, especially if boundaries are present. Tall, narrow CAPE profile supports efficient rainfall. --- [emoji419] 5:00 PM (Third Image) Thermodynamics: CAPE is strong, with tall and narrow shape: classic flash flood profile. Fully saturated up to ~500 mb. Wind: Still weak steering, slight veering. Winds supportive of parallel cell orientation, a key factor in training/banding. Interpretation: This is the high risk time for backbuilding storms. Low LCLs + tall moist layer = efficient rain production. Very favorable for anchored convection with heavy rain. --- [emoji419] 8:00 PM (Bottom Image) Thermodynamics: CAPE remains robust. Deep warm-cloud layer (melting level) = high rainfall efficiency. Winds: Very weak aloft → poor storm motion → cells likely to stall. Shear drops significantly. Interpretation: Flash flood risk peaks if convection sustains. Weak outflow winds suggest training, merging cores, or cell regeneration. Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Yes, I'm hoping that's our saving grace today, that the cold front rams things right on through. The lack of steering winds yesterday was a big part of the problem. Still, we can't afford much out our way without big issues arising quickly. I'm in Harrisburg today so maybe I brought the storms with me up this way.

while thats often the case, we are waterlogged down here and runoff is largely cause soil cant hold anymore. NWS suggested that in their recent disco for today's possible "fun". I passed 3 stranded cars on way to work, and 2 were in pretty deep (etown rd and near my home in akron). Good luck to all who got hammered yesterday and may get it again today. that graph above is ominous for us southers.

Getting sun now . I’m sure it won’t matter as Steinfeld takes care of things

I know I've said this before, but that was just cutting down the snow banks. I know it looks angry.....but do you honestly think there was any anger there in that situation? LOL.

Bright blue skies up here in Mahwah, 81 degrees.