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That’s going to slow down a lot next week
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I’d say 10 days ahead minimum
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2025-2026 ENSO
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Why does the PDO fluctuate more in a new climate though? Just because it happened once, and everything is getting warmer every day? It seems like you are looking at the '13-15 PDO period as strong in between strong -PDO periods, and saying "well since that happened it must be because of global warming". I don't think so. -
Agreed, you can start seeing signs of that type of pattern setting on guidance
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Oaks already getting leaves and can see those dongs ready to fall off soon. Seems a week ahead like woodyard man said.
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And it will be spread over a few days so it will soak in gradually. I'd be very happy with 2" of rainfall spread over 3-4 days.
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It's a week or more earlier this year. Lilacs usually aren't out yet but they're full bloom now.
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I agree with you, and I see the Euro has backed off from the huge amounts and is now more in line with the other models. Most of the area is probably looking at a 2 to 4 inch rainfall for the period, which is good. We could use a big soaking.
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2024-2025 La Nina
40/70 Benchmark replied to George001's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
2017-2018 was my last above average snowfall season due to a record March. 7 conecutive stinkers since. -
After this nasty stretch hopefully we have a nice May
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Extended looks wonderful here from a temperature perspective. We could use some precipitation. 5.48” since January 1st and daily averages are rising quickly.
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2025-2026 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Almost done with my recap of last season and how I did...will post it in the other thread when I finish within the next week or so. Not perfect by any stretch, but much better than last year. -
2025-2026 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I am with you, but just trying to keep an open mind. He did makes some valid points regarding ENSO in a warming climate that while I was initially skeptical of, I ended up capitulating to. He is a very night guy, but no one bats .1000. -
2025-2026 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/ -1.12 as of March..highest its been since August 2021. -
2025-2026 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
The PDO assumed a more negative tendency right on cue with the periodicty with which it has always switched phases. There have always been ENSO induced deviations from the longer term tendency. I don't know....either everyone else on this forum is a moron, Chris is just a giant brain in a glass jar like Krang on Ninja Turtles bag in the day. Shredddoooorrrr...the Hadley Cell is sinkinngggg!!!" -
Very average day
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the weathafella rule usually wins out ; don't expect consistent summer weather until Fathers Day. spring will be spring, which doesn't mean we haven't had, or won't have several nice days mixed in.
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2025-2026 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
AKA agenda. -
Ah spring! Monday through Thursday: 500mb low over the southern Great Lakes region slowly moves northeast this coming week as ridging builds across the center of the county. This upper-level pattern and VORT maxes rotating about the mid-level low continues the unsettled and rainy conditions into next week, have opt`d to keep NBM POPs through next week as rain remains possible though confidence in exact timing is low.
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Eh, you'll probably salvage some decent weather (at times) tomorrow and over the weekend, with mild temps. Then it goes down the shitter inevitably after Monday-ish for 2-3 days.
- Today
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Kinda chilly for May it feels like. Currently 69
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My greatest fear for rainfall potential is the strength of the Atlantic Ridge over the weekend.
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12z Euro: 12z GFS:
- 95 replies
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The euro is doing a pretty good job at depicting the desert of Stephens City.
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Finally cashed with a nice rain, 1.06" overnight