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46 now and bright sunshine. Feels great!

It’s a cold front

As much as I would love to see the GFS/GEFS score this... until Euro is on board, ill stay from getting to excited.

There's definitely something starting to move in now, dark clouds overhead and the wind has really picked up in the past few minutes

Winter 2014 was a great winter for this area!

A snow squall has moved into the Binghamton area. Rain and snow showers remain possible across the NYC area later this afternoon or early this evening with the frontal passage.

44F/Dp22 with very light snow

OHC continues to rise rapidly:

Winds certainly picked up and are out of the wnw and temps dropping.

You won't steal my joy!

and now its bright sun and snow!

That is what usually happens with arctic blasts in +TNH patterns...historic cold knifes down the center of the country and we get unremarkable anomalies.

I looked up a pic of graupel. You're exactly right, that's what is falling here.

can’t remember the last time we’ve seen subsidence like this over the MC… straight up P8 forcing late month

If it wasn’t 48 when it started, we would have definitely gotten a couple tenths in a matter of 3-5 minutes. Temp dropped to 37.

The La Nina is almost over. The subsurface wasn't even meaningfully negative in Dec, definitely won't be in Jan. 0-300m down for 100-180W by the equator was only -0.03 in Dec, v. -1.20 in Dec 2024. It's night and day different. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt The eastern zones of 3 and also 1.2 are much warmer than they have been in a while. The rapid transitions out of La Nina to El Nino tend to be stormy in the West and we've seen that in recent weeks/months. The record warmth out here is more tied to the North Pacific, it's more of a leftover from last winter than a direct driver from this winter. Essentially the setup is nearly identical in the background for the north pacific, and since we've had near neutral conditions in the tropics, not a whole lot has changed. Once we get in Feb/Mar/Apr the subsurface warming will either peak and reverse or continue and that will shake up the pattern.

Yeah that was a uniform snowfall if there ever was one, at least locally.

Not at all! Personally I nearly couldn't care less if it snows or not, this is not my only hobby. Sorry, I just can't stand AI anything. To this point I've seen it cause far more problems than it's helped solve, and that's likely to only get worse

Comparisons of indices Jan ‘26 to Jan ‘17 1. Jan of 2017 was also at this time in phase 6. But that’s where the similarities end as 2017’s phase 6 was much shorter (lasted <2 days) and it sped all the way around to phase 3 by late month! It may just get to 8 at about the same time. So, MJO starting off similar but ending totally different. 2. PNA similar through Jan 21st but then 2017 went back to +PNA. We’ll see whether 2026 does that. 3. Strong +AO 2017 vs strong -AO 2026. So, AO patterns are opposites. 4. 2017 had a +NAO 1/7-18, but then it turned to a moderate -NAO 1/20-6 before rising to neutral late. 2026: -NAO til today and forecasted to head to weak +NAO for a week+. So, NAOs very different. 5. 2017 had -WPO-EPO most of first 1/2 and then +WPO/+EPO 2nd half vs 2026 having some +WPO/+EPO that’s now turning to -WPO/-EPO, which should last for awhile. So, WPO and EPS very different. In summary, other than ENSO related stuff and PNAs being similar, the other 5 indices are far different. Good luck on getting a similar result to 2017, whatever that result is.

The follow up event that is decent is probably going to have that same gradient of the last 8 years that has driven me nuts...just north of me. I'll go full-tilt.

Canadian keeping me from a meltdown. That’s from about 10 clippers (nickel & dime fashion) through the 21st. So definitely not going to happen.

Squalling here but not much frozen, a few flakes mixed in, poor rates. 44

HoCo death band back…getting you ready for Thursday.

Time to go golfing. It was fun while it lasted which was like three hours.

We lost the UK, ICON, and ECM-AI today. We'll track it to the end like the Challenger crew steered the shuttle, but this is starting to look cooked.