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Yes significant in the precip field. The NAM was pretty good last time, despite being taken out to the wood shed for it’s impending doom.

Congratulations, man!!! I just now saw this. Second half of winter is a toss-up for me. I tend to think the pattern we see right now will repeat and/or be very hard to break down. If this was an amplified pattern, I think it breaks down quickly. But these flatter wavelengths are gonna make it tough to budge. Cosgrove likes a backloaded winter and has sound analysis to back it up. I am gonna roll with 95-96 light. That would mean a cold start followed by a warmup which is followed by the worst of winter per Cosgrove. Now, that runs against my seasonal ideas, but it sure looks like that is on tap. My original ideas are winter in December followed by a gradual warm-up for Jan-Feb. I may still get that if December goes in the tank, ie Jan-Feb would almost have to be warmer against the norms. But Jan and Feb could be colder than my original ideas. The big thing for me is that the coldest air on the planet is here and in Asia. Our source regions have been lacking in recent years, but not this year. With the QBO at -25.35 for November(and an unexpected drop after what appeared to be the plateau before it rises), it sure looks like winter still has some life in it for Jan-Feb...I would guess the NAO is about to fire up. These strat warming episodes could very well make for some cold mischief during January.

It’s looking like 1-3” Sunday night into Monday with the Clipper.

Nope, no joke. 0.0.....not even a flake (that I'm aware of). It's been quite a winter so far!!! It’s still Autumn.

Yes, that's another reason that makes sense. I was actually wondering earlier today if the wind shifted to the NW that even without a frontal passage our Temp would fall due to upstream snowcover.

It’s also terrible for your car when it messes with the paint.

12/5: 1.3"

It is back to 6" for portions of Sullivan Co on the 12z today. The AIFS has 1-3". I still think it is over done, but the GFS can sometimes score a weird coup from time to time. For now it is an extreme outlier. I wouldn't be surprised for NW facing slopes to see 1-2" out of that system tomorrow night.

I guess I still go by 1980 to 2010 Averages more. The Avgerages have really jumped over the year's and the thing is that's not always caught is the last sevral Year's that jump is added on in the NWS Station Avgs. The Avg high for Pennington gap this Date was 47 Hi 27 low in 2010 I think. So, average is running below that for the balance but not extreme( however, I think that has gone up some now). KTRI now says the Average high there is like 51 or so Low 31 I think. That's several degrees milder than used to be for there. So, with "Today's" Averages we're running a good bit below. the point basically being the difference in comparison to our west and East. There is a Spike through here of not of below as the aforementioned. I think John actually hit it with the western Ridge Height as far as the point being addressed. I see your reasoning though as the cold we have got has been constant. Of which is a rarity, especially this early.

The mountains aren't exactly running above average most of the past 6 or 7 years either. Without NW flow snow its been pretty poor everywhere.

18z NAM shifts north for Monday

It was a nice snow burst whitening the ground earlier but now a memory.

Nope, no joke. 0.0.....not even a flake (that I'm aware of). It's been quite a winter so far!!!

And a great question I might add. A great question is always better than a great answer....The more I think about it, the more I think it is because they have more snow cover right now. The trough is just a tick too far to the East right now as well.

I definitely get that. I know a lot haven't been as fortunate as some of us in the mountains. Just waiting and watching.

Our county as well. Point has 4.8" here, but some 6" amounts in the north part of the county. Models generally average 0.25-0.35" here. Looking like a solid 3"er with maybe a bit more if ratios play ball.

The trough just wants to set up too far east the last few years. We need a 50/50 low

GEFS moved the trough west at 12z, right where we’d need it. Gotta get the euro ensembles on board though.

DVN just upgraded my area to a winter storm warning and 5-7". I'm not expecting 7, but 5 would be nice.

still targeting a mid January full leaf drop. The Oaks laugh at single-digit temperatures. The tops are mostly gone now. .

I didn’t get out of bed in time to measure the official 9” total IMBY with that last storm. It was already down to 7” by the following afternoon. It’s around 5.5” now but high water content with a layer of freezing drizzle and dense sloppy on top.

Hopefully that trend continues because there is potential there.

Almost a carbon copy of yesterday

Nice to see more ridging build out west in time. Maybe we can get one of these shortwaves to dig and deliver.

Here is the average(lows and highs) for December through the 4th. I will go back up and post the map(with the reference years above...give me a sec to edit that one)... 1985, 2000, 2010, and 2024(almost the same start) are very similar or colder to 2025. But that is about it.