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  2. mappy
    Yeah clots are no joke.
  3. Terpeast
    So would I for blizzards. But from their message, I wonder why they didn’t include flood warnings. I would think that flood warnings would be a top case for that kind of wording.
  4. LakePaste25
    Yup, right on schedule
  5. Typhoon Tip
    looks like yet another NINO 3.4 spike has take place... ~+3.2C now.
  6. mitchnick
    Thing is, the end of the Eps run from last night has a trough off the west coast retrograding wnw toward the GOA and the Euro weeklies have been, for at least 4 days in a row (could be longer, but I stopped at 4) putting a trough in the GOA and the SE US where the seasonal put them come mid-late November, subject to slight model to model variations. So we still need to wait as I ended my convo with Chuck, but MR is now lining up with seasonal progs, and that's as good as we can get from this point in time. P.s. It's been discussed some in other forums, but the North Pole ice shield is the largest in 10 or more years. Odd that could happen in this super Niño.
  7. mitchnick
    A low in the mean, so it doesn't guarantee a permanent low.
  8. mitchnick
    NAO will definitely end the month +. By exactly how much and its significance obviously tbd. Hopefully, Chuck's observation that any October +NAO favors the opposite for the winter prevails.
  9. winterwarlock
    I remember 2 fairly recent 80 plus Halloweens in the last 15 years
  10. A-L-E-K
    12z gfs selling an s tier 70s filled weekend, we're got it dialed in nice
  11. olafminesaw
    Incredible model battle here. I have a feeling I know which one is going to win
  12. FPizz
    Normal highs this week are like what 62-63?
  13. NEG NAO
    The airmass is beginning to moderate across the region mostly everone on the map will end up in the 60's for highs
  14. Torch Tiger
    Fortunately that storm stays way offshore. Nice run of wx ahead Tick tock, cold/snow seaaon on the clock and looks wasted through EOM
  15. GaWx
    Look how much the forecasted mean GEFS NAO has risen from its Oct 13th forecast to today’s forecast! Oct 13th: peaking at only +1.0 on Oct 15th and then plunging to -1/remaining down at -0.9 on Oct 27th: Today’s prog (Oct 19th): peaked not til today way up at +1.73 and already after a dip to -0.8 back up to ~0 on Oct 27th: I’m assuming this drastic change is related to the actual strong storm offshore the E US that wasn’t even forecasted back on Oct 13th thus leading to lower actual SLP in Iceland today than progged 6 days ago. Daily NAO: https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.nao.gefs.z500.120days.csv
  16. Michael05192016
    Hope we can get Halloween to be like the one that was shown in that epic 1980's Steven Spielberg movie "E.T. the Extraterrestrial". Would be nice to have mid 70's and sun for Halloween with no jackets or coats.
  17. winterwx21
    Of course I buy veggies at the grocery store too. But like many people I also grow a vegetable garden. You have a problem with people growing vegetable gardens? All I did was comment about being happy that we didn't get a frost yet. I didn't say anything about clouds. What a strange comment from you.
  18. dryslot
    Low this morning was 26.4°F, A bit chilly in the woods around 6 am.
  19. TSSN+
    All I know is I want to be in one of the first one of these. “The National Weather Service will implement the use of “Particularly Dangerous Situation” wording in select Blizzard Warnings and Ice Storm Warnings this season. This language will help forecasters alert partners and the public about high-confidence blizzards or ice storms of historic severity. These rare events typically pose exceptional threats by posing imminent danger to life and unprecedented disruptions to emergency services.”
  20. WxUSAF
    Yeah that’s super scary. I always think back to the one NBC reporter who died in the first week of the Iraq war from a blood clot because he was sitting in a humvee for like 3 days straight
  21. snowman19
    It’s going to strengthen more and a classic +IOD forcing signature is showing up on the OLR charts, so it’s coupling. Question is how high does it peak next month?
  22. GaWx
    After a decent rise in last week’s release from +0.59 to +0.88, the latest weekly IOD update had no change. But that could easily just be a short-lived pause in the general upward trend since June 1st. Based on the history of IOD usually maxing out by Nov, I’m giving it another month to see if we get a very strong IOD peak this late autumn/early winter. One can see on this chart how much stronger was the +IOD in autumn 2023! At this time then, the IOD was already peaking way up at +1.91! Even in 2019 on this date it was way up at +1.94! https://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCK000072/iod_1.txt?1791781094025 @snowman19
  23. Today
  24. H2O
    I almost think the eagles did him dirty by allowing him to fly to england when he had the bruising after the Rams game. And then went to the hospital while in england because of the bruising. Like thats bad. Flying with clots. oooof
  25. LongBeachSurfFreak
    The models may be off but the ice data does not lie. I’m more interested in the fact that one would have thought the opposite would have occurred this summer. That we would be looking at a new record sea ice low based on the amount of heating happening overall. Having such a contrast between the record heat in the tropics and a relatively cold Arctic will act to enhance storm formation this cold season. What that means practically i am not sure. I do have full confidence in an active STJ and storm track. .
  26. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  27. GaWx
    @LibertyBellasked me this: “Are these similar to the naturally occurring doldrums at the horse latitudes that Columbus experienced?” ———— My answer: Good question. Quite possibly.
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