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No problem. Also, I support you making a thread to share those posts. Plus it would be fun to see how models changed over the course of tracking. Many would support you.

When the GFS prints out 35” of snow and then the euro shows next to nothing for same spot in NC 3 days out it tends to do that to people

18z EPS make of it what ye will: run. to run snow change:

If they are sampling tomorrow, it probably wouldn't get injested until 18z? Even if they sample at 8am pst, GFS is already rolling by then.

Look, at some people we really are going to have to tighten up the storm thread. I'm calling myself out too, but I'm not exactly posting strictly to the rules (and the mods know they can (and have) mod me because I can be just as bad as anybody else. I know excitement gets to us, so I've been a lil more liberal with moderating. Mainly because I'm a trash moderator. So at some point (prob tomm) we are gonna have to buckle down.

At this point I’m ready for the hi res models (I’m getting ahead of myself)… it’s exhausting riding the roller coaster over and over. .

More like orange at this point. All systems go for red tomorrow if this holds.

think it's this one: https://www.weather.gov/lwx/experimentalwinterstormthreat

With it being a cold very dry snow. Even though we won't reach blizzard criteria. It could be quite breezy ..I'm sure we will see some blowing and drifting

18z CMC looking better for tomorrow night

Storm thread is not allowed to be opened until inside of D3

Agreed wholeheartedly.

https://www.weather.gov/lwx/wintermaps

That northern stream wave/lobe of the PV continues to get stronger with each passing Euro run. Not sure if that continues, but it absolutely raises the ceiling on this if it phases. I should probably add that it also may induce more mixing concerns for areas further south, as it would lead to SE ridge amplification and WAA aloft.

it seems the operational runs are trying to organize/manifest on the short side of the index signal... which is fine. Prior it was 29/30/31 ... there's still tussle between which tho -

Judah is wrong...gonna split.

Convos will be made to have a much tighter model thread and a separate banter one for people to post stuff like "GIMME!" and "KEEP COMING NORTH"

I'm of the stance if I can't get snow I'll take cold rain so since event has been a bust for me for a while in SC.

.75 with favorable ratios would be great. I’m not buying the kuchera maps showing over 20:1 ratios but to each their own!

Jimbo back surgery back on?

Holy bitchin nachos!! Boom went the queso!!

looks almost exactly like the 12z GGEM ... doing the same thing with the lag back pivot low formation. here's the 12z GGEM

on the GFS which trended back north sure.. Euro is a monster though

That’s not bad at all. We need the drunk hotel sex level of warning. Rarely seen but always a treat.

Can somebody post that link for the lwx page with the winter storm confidence, impact matrix? Don't feel like going back looking for it. Thanks