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Maybe some more freezes?

I hyperlinked the paper regarding sea level rise at Delos. There was more to the story than war. https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/12/6/870 In short, I made sure that the information was verifiable.

Cold day. High was 32F up above 3,500ft. First true day requiring hat and gloves on the hill. Frosted tips from rime up high.

High of 62 after a low of 43. Damn near perfect mid October day.

I think the Newfoundland warm or cold pool effects whether or not that linkage occurs as it affects the likelihood, longevity and strength of a 50-50 Low. Maybe, Chuck, Larry or Don will take the time to research that and see what the numbers show irt to that.

The Cold pool lends to a 50-50 Low of which stops any linkage.

Yeah, that has occurred more often in later Year's.

Sent info

Nope this is when the euro is wrong. When gfs shows something and euro doesn’t it’s a no and when euro shows it and gfs doesn’t it’s also a no lol.

Lol woops

Winter outlooks this far out are crapshoots.

So there are two mud seasons?

I lit the batsignal

@tunafish and @rimetree have been setup with their submission forms!

PS for the mods - @wxmeddler really needs a red tag. CC: @WxUSAF

Mud season - mid-October until freeze-up, NNE's 5th season.

College Park and Waldorf also dipped into the 30s.

Think our local guy down here is going to go the same route...he's already hinted at the continuation of drought and said we have a well below normal chance of a big dog snowstorm. We shall see. It only takes a couple of well-timed systems to muck up an extended outlook.

October was very dry, with around an inch of precip, and well AN for the first 3 weeks for the most part with one short cool snap, it had some highs in the 80s. The last week was cold but warmed up right around Halloween. It ended up around +3. November was -4 here. Late month rain to around 1.5 inches of snow. A couple of days with highs in the 20s and lows in the low 10s by late November. November started almost 20 degrees AN on the 1st and it was in the upper 70s on the second but a front moved through and we fell into the 30s that night. November was a little wetter with just over 4 inches of precip.

Good point. Both the observation and whether it even matters. 6/7 of the wall to wall cold season enso neutral years the last 30 years were below avg snowfall at BWI. The numbers suggest our chances of a snowy winter don’t change much between a weak Nina and enso neutral. Actually what’s happened to enso neutral winters accounts for most of the degradation of our snow climo. Our typical snowfall during enso neutral has degraded worse than any other subset to the point there isn’t much difference between Nina and neutral now. To really simplify it we have about a 60% chance of a snowy winter in a Nino and a 20% chance in all other winters. Overall in any given year we only have about a 30% chance of a snowy winter. Our climo has become an occasional fluke snowy winter or two surrounded by many many years of dreg. That trend started well before this current string of futility.

Too soon. It will collapse Saturday afternoon after 5 pages of discussion about it.

58 the high here today.

Absolutely gorgeous autumn day here today. Blue skies, colors have exploded this past week, and a crisp chill is in the air. I dont mind in the least that Im in that bright red on the map...because I know it wont last.