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yeah, but we could see out a week. So it’s really not February 9. We’re really up to February 15 in a 28 day month. All we know is we’re halfway with nothing

Today will set an all-time consecutive below freezing streak of 17 days for Chester County PA at a few stations including KMQS Airport, Atglen DEOS and West Grove DEOS. This breaks the old record of 16 days set from January 19, 1961 through February 3, 1961 at the Coatesville 1SW NWS Cooperative station. All locations should finally see temperatures break the freezing mark both tomorrow and Wednesday with highs in the 35-to-38-degree range. This is still a few degrees below our normal highs for mid-February. We turn colder again by Thursday and Friday with near or below freezing high temperatures returning. Snow/Ice or rain chances start to increase by Sunday.

yeah you need it by about 2/20 for it to pay any dividends. March 2018 had the SSW in mid Feb and then we had the epic month

Today will set an all-time consecutive below freezing streak of 17 days for Chester County PA at a few stations including KMQS Airport, Atglen DEOS and West Grove DEOS. This breaks the old record of 16 days set from January 19, 1961 through February 3, 1961 at the Coatesville 1SW NWS Cooperative station. All locations should finally see temperatures break the freezing mark both tomorrow and Wednesday with highs in the 35-to-38-degree range. This is still a few degrees below our normal highs for mid-February. We turn colder again by Thursday and Friday with near or below freezing high temperatures returning. Snow/Ice or rain chances start to increase by Sunday.

What good is a March SSWE going to do? March is a spring month. There’s always a lag of weeks between when one happens and when it affects the tropospheric pattern. Met spring starts 3/1 and astronomical spring starts on 3/20. If you want a cold, wet/rainy spring then I guess you’d root for it…..

12 here this Morning and my backyard is still snow covered for the 15th day in a row. Seems like just another day this winter. Pretty wild.

Based purely on gut feel… upside is a wet 2” paste job NW of 95 before flipping to rain. I’ll take the stat padder while holding out hope for a last winter gasp end of feb or early march

Reggie went wild on S coast from CT to the cape. Looks like a boost there near transition line. Looks like a better s/w as modeled.

Storm is not going to cut past the lower Ohio Valley because of all the blocking up north - it's going to be a Miller B where it reforms somewhere off the Mid- Atlantic coast and all the fine details are not obvious yet more questions than answers at the moment . As for Steve he has a knack for busts in his forecast just like many others online - not that there is anything wrong with that .

Maybe I looked at too many maps the past two weeks. Look at the latest NAM highs: are lower than I thought were forecast for this week. WB 12Z 12K NAM for 4pm Tues, Wed and Th.

I had 5.5. Not sure who that is.

@CoastalWx i see 2N Weymouth at 6" on the PNS is that you? i know you said 5.5, did it change or is that someone else?

Just ignore him folks that’s all. Wow the cold over the past couple of weeks have been impressive. We look to warm up a bit finally but making the storm track more active with mix weather events and then IMO end of month a big dog comes.

That's my thinking for April. We're in for a Top 10 warmest April, with lots of 75, 80 degree days.

It's bad, for sure, but all the models have been all over the place. Unfortunately, even with a near perfect track, we're running into surface temp issues as Chuck's suggested. In the end, we're still in the same Niña regime which is killing us. The last gasp of trade winds (Niña influence) are progged to hang around thru the first day or 2 of March. If anyone is hoping for a late season miracle, my best guess would be wait until after the trade winds die. Otoh, if next weekend works out, that should now be considered a miracle too. Lol

NYC average snowfall for February is still under 10 inches - anything more is above average of course and not expected BUT not impossible

Yes. Steve D from NYNJPA weather says we’re In a lose lose situation for the weekend. Trough digs too much in southeast so it’s a southern slider or the western trough digs too much so the storm amps up and cuts. No favorable pattern for snow for mid Atlantic for a while, he says. Our hopes for an average snowfall season will have to hinge on a March SSW I believe

The models giveth and the models taketh away... I think there could still be some hope for the last week of February into March. Still early to be calling Winter at this point. That said, I'm going to enjoy the thaw. It's been a fun few months of Winter but my body needs a break. Also i'm tired of trying to entertain a 5 year old indoors.

Looks like BOX did toss that 16.2 cocorahs report for some reason. They issued a final PNS for this and didn't include it.

There’s probably a parallel universe where we’re bitching about the cold and lack of snow right now. Given the consistency of the deep BN days, we’re kind of lucky to have gotten the snow we got…SWFE on roids, some inv troughs that overperformed, some light clippers that overperformed.

Not indicating I am unhappy. Just observing the fact that days tend to start slipping away after Mid-February and before you know it it is spring lol

Down here it doesn't make much sense to get too wrapped up in pack. That's why my focus turns to big game hunting. Can we get March of 93 but track it over the BM?....is that unreasonable?

I'd choose NYC. Five coldest mornings: BOS NYC -18 1934 -15 1934 -17 1933 -13 1917 -15 1933 -8 1943 -14 1943 -7 1917 -12 1957 -7 1934 from HV: No crazy stretches of daytime low temperatures but I’ve had 17 mornings at or below zero now. Year of the radiators. Today makes 17 straight subzero mornings. Forecast has #18 tomorrow, which would tie 1982 in Fort Kent for my longest anywhere.

Two interesting videos: https://x.com/i/status/2020641229676089405 https://x.com/i/status/2020626195717714010

It’s par for the course after the 1995-1996 winter for consecutive 10”+ snowfall months to be followed by one under 10”. Very difficult to go 3 in a row in the this area. Snowy patterns have been difficult to sustain for more than a month or two around here. These are all the winters at ISP with 10”+ Decembers. Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY 10”+ months bolded Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2009-2010 0.0 25.3 6.4 21.7 0.4 0.0 53.8 2002-2003 1.0 16.0 2.6 26.3 3.7 5.0 54.6 2003-2004 0.0 15.5 19.1 1.1 5.7 0.0 41.4 2010-2011 T 14.9 34.4 3.9 2.1 T 55.3 1995-1996 3.0 13.3 20.2 19.0 12.0 9.6 77.1 2025-2026 T 12.5 14.9 1.2 M M 28.6 1969-1970 T 12.0 7.0 7.0 1.0 T 27.0 1975-1976 T 11.0 7.8 7.5 3.9 0.0 30.2 1963-1964 T 11.0 11.7 16.0 1.0 0.0 39.7 2000-2001 0.0 10.8 9.2 8.6 10.3 T 38.9 2008-2009 T 10.4 8.9 3.3 13.6 T 36.2 1988-1989 0.0 10.4 4.4 1.2 3.0 T 19.0