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4.16 and rounds of downpours continue
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2026-2027 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread
Tyler Penland replied to BlueRidgeFolklore's topic in Southeastern States
Flood Advisory now. Absolutely dumping closing in on 5" at 4.78" currently. My friend over near the TN line only had an inch in about an hour ago. The crazy swings across the county will never not fascinate me. -
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
LakePaste25 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Yeah I’d exercise caution with the “west based forcing because previous Ninos had forcing more west based than forecast” idea. It’s a valid point, but keep in mind this is east-based beyond historical precedent. -
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When I turned on the game in Cleveland and they said they were getting rain from a gulf low before we were I cringed. Glad it’s not winter lol.
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Raining
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Yup, that area and Litchfield County are the best overall, but nice scenery can be found everywhere. HelI, I just wake up, drink coffee and look at these trees in my backyard and I'm happy.
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In the TCR, I think NHC lowered MIlton's landfall to 115 mph. but I still think that is too high. It got severely sheared well before landfall and despite a pressure at landfall that would normally suggest 115 mph winds, when a system is heavily sheared and going PT/ET, the standard pressure/wind relationship for TC falls apart quickly.
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As I said, we are in an active period of the AMO that favors increased HU activity in the Atlantic, so of course in the last 25 years it is more common. Why wouldn't it be? This active period started in 1995. 1970-94 was a suppressed period overall. And going back to the 1950s and 60s, technology did not allows us to detect rapid intensification as well and the true strength of many HUs (decent satellite coverage did not exist until about 1966), so that made it all appear less common then despite in an active period at that time.
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Modoki is ridiculous. This is the strongest east-based event on record. The subsurface which moves west to east is further west than all Super Nino analogs, which means the east-based nature of the event has staying power. The ECMWF still has Nino 1+2 at +3c next May
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Yes I have noticed that. When Helene's eye was completely inland about 1 hr after landfall, they still had it at 140 mph (same as landfall). No way. Friction acts immediately and bring down sustained winds quickly, and it is apparent only a few miles inland. What a HU is assigned for winds when the centroid of the eye crosses the coast is valid over water only.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Anthony, Thanks for posting the DT update. 1. We don’t even know what the QBO is doing anymore thanks to you know who. But, based on where it was early in 2026, there was very little chance that it would be W based this winter. 2. I think that the usefulness of Judah’s SAI is questionable. -
Agreed and that’s what is great about foliage, any rolling topography covered in color is awesome. Your area of NE CT is top tier, always loved going to the lake in the fall, the quiet corner. Fields, hills, rock walls, barns, foliage.
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I'm in peak winter mode. Worried about waking up tomorrow with a spotty or mostly empty radar then seeing the dreaded crawl on TWC, "winter storm warning canceled".
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I look at @LibertyBellas being the Superman of efficiency, which I can appreciate. However, if someone who wrote one of the 100 posts whom LB replied to wants to reply back, wouldn’t that be a mess? I mean one of my posts (about baseball 8th-9th inning comeback chances) was in another massive reply. I was going to reply back, but never did because of the mess. I guess I could have copied and pasted just the reply to me, but I was too lazy. I don’t think a single person in that position has ever replied back! So, I’ve figured out why LB does this. To minimize replies back. And that’s part of being a Superman of efficiency. Right LB? -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
MJO812 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
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Maybe it’s just a lot of olds that have nothing else to do . I’ve just never understood it when you have the same in your general area
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
LakePaste25 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
The thermocline could potentially reverse which is something I’ve never seen before. -
If you're really into it, it is another level of scenery up there, but for me it's not worth the crowds/traffic and the leaves down here are just fine.
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A lot more rainfall coming in for yall tonight.
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Torrential rain now
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