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  2. El Niño is driving the current situation in the stratosphere...
  3. Cirrus, cirrocumulus, altocumulus clouds early this afternoon.
  4. You might as well draft up the "what went wrong" post now so you just have to hit submit next week.
  5. Interesting look for the SH so early in their recovery season ...
  6. I'm starting to think we need Krakatoa to erupt before we break out of this dry base state.
  7. Absolutely. Such a ridiculous term. Any sensible weather isn’t fake whatsoever. Maybe we should tell the ones that get a tornado ripping through their neighborhood, that it’s fake cuz it was isolated, and everybody didn’t get it….?
  8. https://eos.org/editors-vox/global-impacts-of-ensos-reach-into-the-stratosphere https://www.google.com/search?q=what+does+the+stratosphere+have+to+do+with+El+Niño+&client=ms-android-tmus-us-rvc3&hs=lktq&sca_esv=e65bf6121730a79e&sxsrf=AKL5yDhbk3KYfKSBLv7Eej9pJfcM1C9qmw%3A1793207651672&ei=Yy3iat64KKvR5NoP7buWGA&biw=384&bih=692&oq=what+does+the+stratosphere+have+to+do+with+El+Niño+&gs_lp=EhNtb2JpbGUtZ3dzLXdpei1zZXJwIjR3aGF0IGRvZXMgdGhlIHN0cmF0b3NwaGVyZSBoYXZlIHRvIGRvIHdpdGggRWwgTmnDsW8gMgUQIRigATIFECEYoAEyBRAhGKABMgUQIRirAjIFECEYqwIyBRAhGKsCMgUQABjvBUj-mQFQjR5YoJMBcAB4AJABApgBuAGgAaYnqgEENC4zNrgBA8gBAPgBAZgCHKAC7BzCAgsQABiABBiiBBiwA8ICCBAAGO8FGLADwgIIEAAYgAQYogTCAggQABiJBRiiBMICCBAhGKABGMMEwgIKECEYChigARjDBMICBRAhGJ8FwgIGEAAYFhgewgILEAAYgAQYigUYhgOYAwCIBgGQBgWSBwYyLjI1LjGgB_foAbIHBjIuMjUuMbgH7BzCBwkyLTE2LjExLjHIB-MBgAgB&sclient=mobile-gws-wiz-serp
  9. https://x.com/webberweather/status/2115404066482475097?a=12X_0gnBmHbDtI1jRmA&s=19
  10. the sswe nonsense is just cohen trying to bait people to pay to read his shitty blog. there is no cold air up north. even if something does happen with the spv right now, it’ll just kick us back to normal.
  11. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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  12. there are these white things in the sky
  13. what does the stratosphere have to do with el nino
  14. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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  15. Is it summer or is it almost Halloween? Monarch says: Extended summer.
  16. A possible turn to wetter next week?
  17. I don’t watch baseball on tv much but was bummed they couldn’t pull it out after sweeping their other series games. That 8 run inning from Monday night was wild!
  18. Personally, I think an Icestorm is due. Cannot tell when or where, but I think we are due.
  19. A lot of people don't know this, but a composite for the most warm 10mb Winters (NDJFM) have above average temps in the Northeast, US and cold Stratosphere Winters below average temps in the Northeast, US. The anomaly over Greenland extends south. Of course in shorter time periods there is AO-correlation.
  20. WB latest EURO weeklies run for the 7 day period ending 12/13 is not a torch. Is is going to snow in December? Who knows!
  21. Yeah, Not sure where this "fake" term comes from, But sitting in the woods this morning wasn't fake, 45/27°F presently.
  22. Mitch, The modeled 10 mb/60N wind rise after the historic dip is by no means faster than what commonly happens with SSWs, especially early season SSWs. Looking at the image below, one can that the plunges downward from SSWs are often followed by pretty sharp rises soon afterward. By that time, the SSW has already done its “damage” so to speak. Look at the SSWs in here (circled). I count 8 SSWs prior to Jan 1st: 1952, 1958, 1965, 1968, 1981, 1984, 1987, and 1998 Most of these other than 1984 rose fairly steeply within a few weeks, which is what the models are showing for 2026 (assuming they will even be right obviously). Even some of those after Jan 1st rose steeply. @snowman19@Winter Wizard
  23. I don’t know. The sun angle should be premium after daylight savings time starts.
  24. The quacks are just trying to cash in on the normie/weenie crowd with the SSWE hype and clickbait/viewbait. The old days were chill when the quacks didn’t have as many platforms to broadcast their wacky stuff.
  25. Today
  26. I have been following this all year. Gem has lead the way and makes things look even more robust
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