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Will probably be down with family (we live just up in the neighborhood from there).

2026-2027 Winter Outlook Temps Dec:0 to +2 Jan:-1 to +1 Feb:-5 Snowfall range 20-25” primary analogs:1962-63, 2002-03, 2012-13 There are variabilities in those years but they best compare to what I observed this spring thru now. We do get some Miller As this year and some repeats of what we just had with lows being more intense and closer to the coast . Problem is temps like in 97-98 but Feb looks plenty cold enough .

That’s interesting

Well. I am sufficiently soaked. I believe we can officially declare the drought over.

There's research out there (but yeah you could argue lack of sample size) which shows a great deal of trust within weather forecasts, particularly with weather forecasts from local outlets.

Finished with 13" at 10:1

Not sure if you heard about the new series on Paramount+....Team Moms - Baseball. Classic trash TV, but does capture the craziness with some of these teams.

Just about 3 inches now

I think we all would take anything over MC forcing, which is the worst.....another thing to think about is if this El Nino is strong enough to pull all of the forcing east, as Chris seems to imply, then that would eradicate any MC influence....which he has stated in the past has acted to accentuate the warmth in recent El Nino events relative to past events, so this season could end up a bit cooler due to that....lots to think about. A bit of MC influence could leak into central forcing, but not east.

Finally got some decent rain - 0.70" overnight. Mostly very light rain since, event total including Sunday early is approaching 0.90", biggest precip since August 3.

i'm supposed to play some music at the Westover Day festival in Arlington on Saturday - I guess we will see.

Us too... but that was a doubleheader 3 weeks ago... It is hard here in BC to make up games too... because most of our fields do not have lights. We have a tournament coming up on Oct 17-18 and might be coming in with limited experience on a 90 foot diamond.

3 ninos is 3 ninos. You're digging too deep trying to find a silver lining. But lets wait until we actually fail before we start this analysis. I think we have a 40-50% chance of a big snowstorm this winter. Let's hope luck is on our side. But 2 things to keep in mind. The nino is 2016 warmed the pacific and super charged what was already a bad trend. And we've been in a very hostile pacific pattern ever since. Similar past periods with a similarly hostile long term cycle were low snowfall also, but things are getting worse so a bad cycle now is REALLY REALLY REALLY bad. It's that simple...the pattern we've been in the last 10 years would have been a bad snowfall period in any era, but now with warming bad is super awful bad. That's it... it's pretty simple.

You surpassed me to no surprise, 4.81" so far. You really got nailed yesterday afternoon onward it seems.

Beach Pizza for you???

Stopped at salisbury before going to hampton.. pretty gusty now

At some point we will get a big snowstorm again. I am not saying it will never snow again. However, we are in a hostile PDO cycle. You can track these long term cycles and see the impact on our snowfall. The issue is the hostile periods are becoming MORE hostile. It's becoming VERY difficult to get big snowfall years during hostile cycles. It was never easy during hostile pacific cycles but now its becoming increasingly unlikely to even luck into some fluke snowy seasons during a hostile period. Eventually we will... I don't think it's impossible just less and less likely. And eventually the PDO will flip again and we will have a more favorable cycle and probably a period of 15-20 years with "more" snowfall but the last 2 favorable cycles showed a decrease from period "snowy" cycles also so don't expect another 1960's or even another 2000-2016 period. But we will see snowier periods than what we've just experienced again. But my point is using past "normal" trends to set expectations is flawed since we know things are changing and becoming more hostile.

I mean at least if this one doesn't produce there's a known reason (super east based). Does it belong in the same category as the other two? What does bother me is how a switch suddenly flipped in 2016. Yeah I know the snow margins overall were going down in the two decades before...but that period of time still had footers (what I call storms over 12") every 3-4 years, with that heater between 2010-2016. Then after 2016 and it all just stops cold. No slow decline, just outright stops...I thought climo change was supposed to be gradual? Lol That's what makes me wonder if the super niño back then accelerated things, or made the atmosphereor can this one "reset" things once again? But if the next niño after this one behaves the same way the previous two did then yeah we might be cooked, smh

I agree the majority of storms will have overs and unders but can't the forecasters adjust their forecasts based on what is actually taking place?

1.60" for the day and event total 2.67" so far. 7.61" for the month

Part of the issue is that any precipitation event is background favored to over perform over quantitative/guidance-based QPF totals. This is an unavoidable aspect of CC. This storm performed pedestrian as far as Nor'easter/coastal event climatology, but over performed on QPF relative to that. It seems the relativity aspect doesn't filter analytically by many when it comes to assessing forecast. Like Wiz was intimating, ...all storms will have over and unders, and right ons. What you can do is determine the axis of modeled QPF or wind or surf ... vs whichever metric being studied. Then, plot all the empirical results on a bell-curve graph. Super impose the two graphs. If the interquartile density of results is left of the storm forecast axis/max, the system under performed. If it is over the max, it over performed. If it's closely spaced then it performed according to the guidance profile/projection.

with 3 months to go, 60+ is not out of the question if we remain in this very wet pattern

Finished with 1.60”. 63F/DP 60F