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Mild temperatures continue today with rain chances increasing this afternoon. A brief break in the rain tonight before we turn chillier with more rain tomorrow into Saturday night. Temperatures turn colder after Sunday with temperatures not too far from normal for mid-January before trending much colder by the end of next week into the weekend. We could see between 0.75” to 1” of rain tomorrow night. Winter weather opportunities start to ramp up by later next week.

Mild temperatures continue today with rain chances increasing this afternoon. A brief break in the rain tonight before we turn chillier with more rain tomorrow into Saturday night. Temperatures turn colder after Sunday with temperatures not too far from normal for mid-January before trending much colder by the end of next week into the weekend. We could see between 0.75” to 1” of rain tomorrow night. Winter weather opportunities start to ramp up by later next week.

I had Ole Miss +3 1/2 points and they lost by 4, so I'd like a little snow to help cope with that please.

Significant increase in high tide or sunny day flooding across the areas in Florida which have experienced the greatest sea level rise. https://southeastfloridaclimatecompact.org/initiative/climate-indicators-high-tide-flooding/

Looking at 6z EC AIFS - I don’t like it…. The early mid level cut-off in northern stream is another red flag. You’re going to get much more shunting east with the coastal than meridional mid level ridge development can compensate for over the western Atlantic. Maybe a cape scrape? I’m focusing on the 18th…

For the record - I recognize this from past winters. Two waves - people get invested in one, then the other, then a why not both hope sets in. It looks promising for one, then the other, then magically, a shift to a middle compromise with a massive storm. Hopes surge. Then, it starts to look muddy. PSUHoff weighs in to say that with better spacing it would be two nice events, but that unfortunately the worry is that they are too close together and interfere with the development of each. That ends up being right and we get flurries on Friday and gray skies on Sunday and see reports from the Carolinas of getting smoked in the first event and the Poconos in the second event.

Does anyone know how to access ensemble H5 vort panels? Tomer Burg used to have that one Polarwx (I think), but can't find those particular panels any longer.

Hopefully I won’t need to chase somewhere else and can stay in Palmyra.

I think the 15th storm is legit

I took advantage of the nice evening sans howling wind, and took christmas lights down last night as well as brought another load of wood down. Pattern looks loaded later next week and beyond. Trough axis hurtin us as best qpf well off shore, but IF we can get better spacing and less progressive w/ the flow, it might give something a chance to spin up a nice miller A. Going to be a lot of sorting out in the next few days, but it's fun to look at no matter the result. The chase is a big part of the fun for me. TGIF boys n girls.

Pretty obvious to me anyway but what do I know. All I now is one look and it was tent material

Spectacular looks. Ice castle like

Lol by the time I get to the map its bedtime j/k

Not sure I agree. I think it’s in the process of tilting neg quickly. Did you loop it? I mean, I don’t doubt that it may end up a salad of interfering shit streaks, but I thought this run was ready to blow up.

Warmup period so far SIte: High / low (dep) EWR: 1/6: 44 / 31 (+5) 1/7: 54 / 37 (+13) 1/8: 53 / 41 (+14) NYC: 1/6: 42 / 35 (+5) 1/7: 49 / 37 (+9) 1/8: 50 / 32 (+12)

I think the thing that is peaking my interest the most are the 500mb maps. Go back and look at almost any major miller a we’ve had in the past. It looks almost identical.

driving around this morning and legit everywhere you look is postcard material.. all the trees are frosted and the sunrise was awesome..

Trend on the EPS is for more vorticity in the base of the trough: Would should be bale to have the EPS panels to go along with the GFS member panels covering the event by 18 or 0z tonight.

Euro verbatim is another 36-48 hrs after that depiction. Airmass is much better then.

Yea I agree. The late phase scenario by the gfs is always worrisome to see, but that model also has a very progressive bias. No phase is ever a given but when you drop the energy down to the oil rigs, I like our odds compared to normal. I think the second system has some serious legs. I feel like a close shave is coming for the first….the Euro bought brought a tear to my eye lol. I haven’t seen a good WNC special on a digital snow map in a while.

I tend to again at this lead time for sure. .

Records: Highs: EWR: 67 (1998) NYC: 64 (2008) LGA: 66 (2008) JFK: 65 (2008) Lows: EWR: 1 (1968) NYC: -1 (1968) LGA: 1 (1968) JFK: 0 (1968) cold week Historical: 1875 - The temperature at Cheyenne, WY, dipped to an all-time record cold reading of -38 degrees. (The Weather Channel) 1880: A rapidly deepening low-pressure system produced powerful winds along the Pacific Northwest coast. While wind measurements were limited, there were widespread reports of wind damage. 1888 - Severe cold gripped much of the western U.S. At Portland OR the Columbia River was frozen for two weeks, and in southern California temperatures dipped below freezing in some of the citrus growing areas. (David Ludlum) 1932 Pink snow fell in Durango, CO as dust from the Painted Desert mixed with a snowstorm. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1934 Sleet and ice storm over southwest Minnesota. Hardest hit was Slayton, Tracy and Pipestone. The thickest ice was just east of Pipestone with ice measuring 6 to 8 inches in diameter. At Holland in Pipestone County three strands of #6 wire measured 4.5 inches in diameter and weighed 33 ounces per foot. The ice was described as: "Very peculiar in formation being practically round on three sides, the lower side being ragged projectiles like icicles: in other words pointed. The frost and ice were wet, not flaky like frost usually is. In handling this, it could be squeezed into a ball and did not crumble." (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1937: The maximum temperature for the date in Washington, DC is 76°F. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA) 1949: The most significant snowstorm to hit lower elevations of southern California started on this day and ended on the 11th. 14 inches fell in Woodland Hills, 8 inches in La Cañada and Catalina Island, at 2,100 feet, 6 inches at Altadena, 5 inches at Burbank, 4 inches at Pasadena, one inch at Laguna Beach and Long Beach. A trace fell at San Diego, the only time since 1882. Three feet piled up at Mt. Laguna, 18 inches fell at Cuyamaca, and one foot at Julian, CA. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1950: A series of three major snowstorms with almost no break paralyzed much of Oregon. The snows were generally the heaviest in Oregon history. 224 inches of snow fell during the month at Timberline Lodge, OR. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1954: The coldest temperature ever recorded in Greenland of -87° was reported at Northice. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1970: The minimum temperature for the date is -4°F. in Washington, DC. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA) 1973: Heavy ice storm in Atlanta Ga. for several days 25 million in damage. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1973: Heavy ice storm in Atlanta Ga. for several days 25 million in damage. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1976 - Lake effect snow squalls buried the town of Adams NY under 68 inches of snow. (David Ludlum) 1977: St. Cloud, MN recorded their coldest temperature ever with a reading of -43F at 8 AM. Between January 3-19, the low temperatures there dropped to -15 °F or lower on fourteen of the seventeen days! (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1978: Richmond had a 51 °F daily temperature range on this date which was the greatest daily range on record for not only January but for all months. The maximum was 64 °F and the minimum was 13 °F on this date in 1978. (Ref. Richmond Weather Records) 1987 - A winter storm spread heavy snow from the Central Plains into the Great Lakes Region. Heavier totals included 9 inches at Sun City KS, 7 inches at Columbia MO, 11 inches at Terre Haute IN, and up to 10 inches in the southern suburbs of Chicago IL. (National Weather Summary) ( Storm Data) 1988 - A storm in the northeastern U.S. produced ten inches of snow at Boston MA, and 14 inches at Worcester MA. A winter storm in the northwestern U.S. produced a foot of snow in three hours at McCall ID. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Strong winds prevailed along the eastern slopes of the Rockies in Colorado. Winds gusted to 113 mph at the Air Force Academy near Colorado Springs, and reached 115 mph at Boulder. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - A third storm in four days hit the Pacific Northwest. Winds in Oregon gusted above 100 mph at Netarts and at Oceanside. Up to 8.16 inches of rain was reported around Seaside OR, and the total of 4.53 inches of rain at Astoria OR was a record for the date. Twelve cities in the western U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. The high of 70 degrees at Cedar City UT was a record for January. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1992: Minneapolis, MN had its first view of the sun in 350 hours or equaling 14.5 days. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1993: 17.2 inches of snow fell in Topeka KS in twenty four hours. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1996: Sub-freezing temperatures severely damaged vegetable crops with losses estimated over $2 million dollars in Hillsborough and Lee counties; with minor damage to the citrus crop in Pasco County, Florida. Several tropical fish farms lost over 50% of their harvest with the estimated loss at $5.5 million dollars. Locations across Florida and the East that reported record low temperatures for the date included: Elkins, WV: -8°, Islip, NY: 14°-Tied, Inverness, FL: 18°, Weekiwachee, FL: 24°, Avon Park, FL: 25°, Lakeland, FL: 26°, Mountain Lake, FL: 26° -Tied, Parrish, FL: 28°, Sarasota-Bradenton, FL: 28°, Tarpon Springs, FL: 28° -Tied, Venice, FL: 30° -Tied and Punta Gorda, FL: 31°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1997: A powerful Alberta Clipper and a deep Arctic High brought widespread and prolonged blizzard conditions, heavy drifting snow, and dangerous wind chills of -40 °F to -80 °F from the Missouri Valley to the upper Midwest. Across South Dakota, north winds were from 30 to 50 mph gusting to 60 mph. The clipper dropped from 2 to 7 inches of snowfall on top of an already solid 2 to 5 foot snowpack. As with previous storms, most roads again became blocked by huge snowdrifts stranding hundreds of motorists. Some people were trapped in their homes up to several days as snowdrifts buried their homes and blocked the roads with some people having to crawl out their windows. In Wilmot, SD a 12 foot drift covered the community home, where residents had to turn the lights on during the day. As a result of snow removal budget depletions and other storm damages, President Clinton declared all of South Dakota a disaster area. Snow plows from Iowa, Nebraska, and plows and manpower from the South Dakota National Guard helped to break through hundreds of roads. The snowdrifts in some places were packed so hard and were measured at 300 pounds per square inch. The total damage estimate for this January blizzard and for the previous January winter storm was $50 million dollars. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) Comair Flight 3272 crashed into a field near Ida, OH during a major snowstorm. All twenty-nine people aboard died. The cause of the crash: ice built-up on the wings of the EMB-120 aircraft. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 2015: The halo picture below was taken by Texan Joshua Thomas in Red River, New Mexico.

There’s red flags with that euro run. Mid levels look juicy but beneath you can see the BZ is not at all where we want it. we’re actually between two zones, one indicating it’s taking the surface reflection well ots whereas the other well to our west and indicating warm sector/ptype issues. I’m maintaining I do not like this one at all. It’s a lot further from where it needs to be for a significant snowstorm than the 6z euro mid level depiction is reflecting.

Went to bed after Ole Miss and Miami hoping I’d find some magic in here this morning. Man what a night of model runs!

A chart from the technical paper shows that the rate of ocean warming is increasing. Note that data is from a number of sources including satellite net radiation measurements. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-026-5876-0