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Snow growth regions, especially in the south, tend to be at or just below the 500mb (h5) level. However, the cold down here is very anomalous, as such, the best snow growth region will be shunted to the 700mb (h7) level for this storm. So for this storm when a forecaster is looking at h5 and sees very low relative humidity (RH), they are seeing low moisture and thus low snow growth potential. However, h7 is full of RH and in this case, this is where we should be looking for snow growth (commonly known as DGZ - Dendrite Growth Zone). As such, while h5 might look like a dry slot or poor snow growth, this forecast should rely on h7 which looks great.

Basically snow grows in a column of air that is roughly -18C to -11C. You need a saturated parcel of air within this temperature range to achieve snow growth. 500mb is a changing height above ground level. Colder air the height is lower, warmer air it’s higher. The maps spit out relative humidity for these mb levels (500,700,850,925). Right now our snow growth will happen mainly below 600mb based on sounding data which is unusual for our area. Normally that growth can start at 500mb. But since the air is so dense and cold that growth area starts lower. https://www.weatherhawks.com/snow-dynamics/ this is an article that I think helps describe snow growth pretty good as well if im still not making much sense haha.

Reading the room, I'm just guessing there isnt much interest in analysis about the feature that's fucking things up in the upper levels to make it not snow again. But thanks!

Your forecast overall seems about right. Hopefully we can go on the upper end or a little higher. TW

I talked to Copilot about this...basically...the snow growth happens more in the 700 MB zone rather than the 500 MB zone. So just because the 500 MB zone is dry doesn't mean snow doesn't form due to "dryness" since the 700 MB zone (lower) is wetter.

Sneakily replying to this here . Ice looking good! Turkey Pt and that whole peninsula is one of my favorite spots around NE MD. Just was out for maybe an hour trying to take some pics. So cold for fingers!!! Will look through later but I was being quick so idk lol.

Folks in the Tennessee forum are reporting snow in Knoxville area now.

You have any idea of where that dry slot is gonna set up? I would think the 3K would correct at 18z?

Just cold, nothing to get hyped about on the snow front. Maybe after this period there might be something.

I'd say 3 to 6 most likely.

Well that extra sucks on a cold Friday, RIP to Catherine O'Hara. One of the real ones.

I don't think the sun isn't doing anything to the snowpack in this atmosphere. Evidence of that is looking at the roofs of peoples houses.

I don’t think we can know much about this week coming up until the development and strengthening of the coastal to our southeast is resolved. The models are still trying to figure out what to do even now with that coastal. Anything beyond 100 hours is an absolute crap shoot? In the meantime enjoy cold, dry, and snowpack with a screaming west-northwesterly flow of blocking.

Yes, watched him. Seems he thinking our area, just outside west of Spex, is dry slotted for a lot of this event. Hope he’s wrong.

Not a particularly awe inspiring Euro run

Gonna hit 50° here soon

We might get above freezing next week! Time to break out the shorts and tshirts!

Old news

Here we go! Roads will get slick in Chattanooga late tonight and Saturday morning. probably not as bad as 2014 since we are not as cold. I like the rest of the MRX snow chart too.

I think everyone is just happy it's NOT Patullo....ANYONE is better. And I'm glad he's a QB coach...hopefully he meshes well with Jalen.

To an extent I see what he means, but unless this storm really gets shunted East, I don't see what he's saying. This storm is exploding and back building and I personally think it will build farther back north and west than what he's concerned about.

12z Euro.

That’s what “Meatloaf” said!

It was still snowing at the end of that.

Snowing to beat the band on top of me in Knoxville, but none is reaching the ground.