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watching that mcv in iowa

The 850 mb temperatures today near +20C and downslope westerly flow will support 97-99° at the warm spots with enough sun. Seeing some clouds in forecast today. But more sun could support a few local warm spots making a run at 100°.

Are the debris/clouds this am going to impact heating or is this going to burn off fairly soon?

Epic drought continues. 0.03" from last night. 1.62" since May 1st. 3.53" since April 1st Decent shot some of us go bone dry till Sunday evening.

We ended up with a inch to 1 1/2. A station a few miles from me reported about 3.5. They got just shy of 3 inches in the first round which really had the stream up on the side of 132 as I drove home.

Lol, damn. I was surprised to get 0.77". Most fell around 2-3am Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

0.77". Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

Lol wtf happened 1.93" overnight

71/69 , with those dews creeping up, warm crew is happy.

Japan’s meteorological agency has declared an El Niño. Not a surprise given the current obs and the JMA model showing a historic event On a side note, the extreme SST anomalies off the coast of Peru continue…. ^ “And according to the latest oceanographic bulletin from @ImarpePeru, sea surface temperatures continue to rise and have reached an anomaly of +7.36°C (+13.25°F) off the coast of #Paita #Piura. Tomorrow we expect an update from the Climate Prediction Center of @NOAA on the status and outlook of #ElNiño.”

Min 65.9° 0.67” We wet

S Wey pouring again .

Tagged day 4... mentioned again on days 7 and 8 ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110852 SPC AC 110852 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Sunday... The 00z models have trended toward a much stronger short-wave trough and associated mid-level jet, which will progress from the Great Lakes and OH Valley into the Northeast. Elsewhere, a short-wave trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front attendant to the Northeast short-wave trough will move through that region with the trailing extension of the boundary pushing south through the OH and TN Valleys into the Gulf Coast states. A much stronger low-level jet is now forecast ahead of the cold front across the Northeast, which will aid in greater air mass destabilization than indicated in previous model runs. When coupled with notably stronger vertical shear, the setup appears favorable for organized severe storms across the Mid-Atlantic, potentially into southern New England Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Day 5/Monday... The models suggest the Sunday/central Plains short-wave trough will progress through the mid MS into OH Valleys with an associated belt of enhanced mid-level flow stretching from the central Plains into Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, there is good model agreement that the primary synoptic front and associated warm sector will lie across TX and the Gulf Coast states, to the south of the stronger mid-level winds and forcing for ascent. Some severe-weather threat may develop along and south of the front; however, the marginal vertical shear is expected to limit the overall severe-weather threat. Slightly stronger vertical shear is forecast across the central and southern High Plains, due to an easterly upslope regime in the low-levels. While the potential for more organized storms will exist in that region, severe-weather coverage may only be isolated. ...Day 6/Tuesday... The ensemble mean and deterministic models are suggestive that a mid-level disturbance will track from the central Plains into the lower OH and TN Valleys, contributing to overall amplification of the long-wave trough in place east of the Rockies. The primary surface front is expected to remain in place across the Gulf Coast states, to the immediate south of the stronger forcing for ascent and mid-level flow. While isolated occurrences of severe weather appear possible from the southern High Plains into Southeast, the potential for an organized severe-weather event remains in question. ...Days 7-8/Wednesday and Thursday... The ensemble means indicate the progression of a strong mid-level jet streak into the northern and central Plains Wednesday with that feature moving through the OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday. At the surface, the ensemble member low positions indicate clustering across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley Wednesday, and across the Great Lakes into Ontario on Thursday. The rapid poleward return of a moist and unstable air mass is expected to occur ahead of the surface low and associated frontal system. As such, some severe weather appears possible across parts of the Midwest Wednesday, and perhaps OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday. ..Mead.. 06/11/2026

https://youtu.be/Bg0tFRea0wA?is=IIf3KdsnHe59h1di

0.36” on 6/10 imby/Columbia. 0.56” so far in June.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 224 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026 DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-508-VAZ054-057-111430- /O.NEW.KLWX.HT.Y.0001.260611T1500Z-260612T0000Z/ District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Southeast Harford- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-King George- 224 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026 ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Heat index values up to 105 expected. * WHERE...Areas near and east of the Interstate 95 corridor from northeast to southern Maryland and the northern neck of Virginia, including Baltimore MD and Washington DC. * WHEN...From 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat illnesses. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Take extra precautions when outside. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing. Try to limit strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Take action when you see symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency! In cases of heat stroke, call 9 1 1.

66F to start, a little different than 49F

Heat advisory up for parts of the DC/Baltimore metros and points east including the western shore of the Chesapeake Bay.

Up to 103 Heat Index values Thur and Friday here. I might have to be outside for hours on Friday so that'll be fun lol

Been a while that we have had 2 30 wind forecast days back to back from SPC... today and tomorrow Today Tomorrow

Still an enhanced risk; 20 minutes late just to roll back to the original Day 2 outlook.

89/75 sweaty balls today. Somehow managed to gather strength to smoke/grill on the pitboss pellet grill twice before each rd in oak brook. the img compressor shit here sucks

Thoughts on later today for northern IL and points just nearby: - Locally sky high potential if supercell mode is maintained in the maxed out environment. - There appears to be a play for prefrontal supercells, possibly followed by an intense (likely prolificically tornadic) QLCS. - There also looks to be a play for QLCS being the primary mode, which could yield multiple EF0-1 tornadoes and a few EF2s in addition to corridors of enhanced straight line wind damage. - It seems unlikely we'll get through the event relatively unscathed given the high end parameter space. - Current thinking on most likely area to have a EF2+ tornado (if supercell(s) are there to tap into environment around 21z) is far northern IL (and adjacent southern WI) closer to the forecast surface low and warm front position. Of course neither of these elements are set in stone so a farther south sfc low track and/or warm front position would up the ante for a sig tor threat farther south.

Yeah prolific lightning, just non-stop.