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We hit 82 yesterday. Amazingly, I didn't have to turn on the AC.

Not sure any amount of rain can wash away all the dog $hit on the sidewalks.

Bit of a bust here. Flipped to sleet for a while before going back to snow. 2.25"

Does anyone know why KBOS stopped reporting daily snow depth in the late 1990s? This year would be in the top 10, except the data cuts off around 2000. 1977 and 1978 both had two solid months, and 1994 and 1996 both had 30+ days. I have to assume 2015 would be right near the top of the list. KMQE does have data going back longer, right now is sitting at 46 days, 29th longest. Longer this century: 56 (2001), 70 (2015), 77 (2011), 84 (2003). Record of 100 ending 3/23/1923.

Next weekend surely looks to get a trough back in the east. It's been showing on the LR guidance for a while now, so were getting close enough to think its legit cold. Just need to see how things line up. As Mag suggested, GFS/Euro worlds apart in evolution for 3/16 event, so that raises a flag. Looks like you got one more period to track though.

Too much PV strung out across the Canadian Shield for me to like big warm ups along the NP-GL-NE garland. I mentioned this over a week ago, when that was in the guidance ens longer range means; because of that the warm ups should be held in check. I called it melt and mud season. I now wonder if we get that much but will hold for now. If the former should prove more poorly/unseen confluences causing wedge highs to undercut ...no shocker. I've also been observing these models runs ever since... inch by inch have been eroding/rasping the tops off the N latitude of the warm bulges. I don't think the aforementioned PV constraints are entirely unrelated to that sneaky correction tendency/leans.

I got 1.00" of rain this morning. There was a close lightning strike and huge crack of thunder at the leading edge of the rain, around 3am. It knocked my internet out for a few hours.

That cold tuck even made it this far west. Temp has been dropping all morning from 31.7 to 30 now

Wednesday?

So yeah ... the Euro's ens system has a hard-on for flipping the continent toward a strong +PNAP just after the Ides. The entire PNA domain may only be partial during that 14-18th period, but who cares... if there's a deep trough transient in the region that's all it takes. If that were the only guidance available, that's probably a risk period. It may be .. it's possible the EPS has a better handle on the mid month than the other ens systems. Which don't show as robust of a +PNAP... In fact, their Pac --> N/A relays are more neutral in the total PNA character, conserving more speed/stretched wave lengths in the GEFs/GEPs.

add me to the first tboomer list. nice rain and rumbles/flashes last night I think drought talk will suppress as much as snow talk has. Speaking of snow, look at 0z Euro. Blizz may get one last hurrah if it has a clue. Still looking just before or around green beer day.

I expect a pretty quick pivot. I don't think they are acquiring these picks to actually use them at the draft. I suspect they will use them to be agressive to acquire help for next season, maybe as soon as later today.

Wednesday is gonna turn into a winter wx event if we're not careful

Chris, per NWS Public Information Statement 26-05, the Relative Oceanic Niño index (RONI) is used for official monitoring and prediction of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. The RONI based peak of 2023-4, which has replaced ONI for official NWS monitoring, was only +1.5: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/

.63" of rain fell yesterday, .94" for the week. Air this morning is noticeably (to me) chillier than it was yesterday. I thought it felt humid, this morning it feels raw. Temp is 39 currently.

Still a big model battle for wedge-cast tomorrow. Op euro seems alone in busting the wedge by midday tomorrow. AIFS and most other guidance keeps the wedge until close to midnight as @high risk alluded to.

I’m done with the fog. Dumbest winter ever.

6z Euro looks nice at hr144

GEFS catching up to EPS MJO moving into phase 8. Trough could trend stronger though without any blocking may be transient.

Already seeing a ton of people confused as hell as to what 2% and 5% sig tor risks on the new style maps mean

That's an anomaly out there right now. Low grade but it is ... 27 dead air capped over by strata protecting a fresh inch of mixed glaze and sleet is more Jan 6 than Mar 6... As an aside ... I'm assuming based on recency that when the monthly mean is released by NASA, Feb will have completed the trifecta of core winter months all being well above normal, globally, while a small node of isolated negative anomalies - of only two or three covering the whole planet - will be situated right here. This is a blessed year for winter enthusiasts within said repeating oddity.

I think this is the beginning of the retool in DC. Ovi's likely not coming back next season I would think. Meanwhile I'm waiting to see what pieces move in St. Louis today.

How reliable is this forecast this far out? Looks like it wants a super Nino but this is only early March.

It's actually closer to 0.75" here in Lowell, but there's probably 0.5" of sleet in there, so it's still going to have to get shovelled. I can't believe another crappy, cold, cloudy day. My forecast high is 32F.

Those inch to inch and a half measurements around this area look spot on to me. Definitely makes for an easier morning.