All Activity

In a synoptic threat 3-4 days out, it’s going to be extremely tough to defeat the Euro/GFS and their ensembles if they are in close agreement. I’d want to see the 12z euro improve at least…otherwise I’d be more inclined to punt the AIs. However, a 70/30 compromise in favor of the OP models will still produce some accumulating snow in eastern zones, but obviously not a big event.

Just got a surprise heavy snow/sleet storm going on currenty, loud enough I could hear it inside. Currently 21 so maybe I can get some tweezers to collect enough for one tiny snowman Going to enjoy this like it's all I get this season

So this is actually pretty darn close to what the composite looked like for the analogs I used for my winter forecast. But the snowfall results through mid January were better across those analogs. This isn't bad...yes its a dry look...we're on the backside of the trough, its definitely not perfect. But predominantly -AO/NAO, a poleward pacific ridge, not a crazy hostile PNA for a change...this isn't a shutout look.

Only took 300 hours but it finally gets us. Although overall the run is colder and there's some close calls prior to this. This combined with the ensembles in this time frame I think should give some optimism. It's never easy for snow in these parts lol.

I like the EC-AIFS too. I think it has done well this winter. Under 48hrs I'll be looking at the NAM. That's probably an unpopular opinion, but I think it does well with these trofs that touch the Gulf when the height field along the upstream trof flank is questionable. It often signals how much room there is to come NW. It the NAM stays east in the short term, that usually ends it.

At least we got another GFS bomb to track at 306.

Oh yea my bad. No disagreement there. I know peeps want and think they deserve more.

Magic. I think it heavily weights meso models? @high risk? So maybe the SREFs pummel us?

I don't trust these AI's "know" ( pun intended ) what they're doing. Looking at their 500 mb isohypses progressions through the periods they smack me of the primitive MRF of the mid 1980s. It could also just be a coincidence, but I'm inclined to wonder nonetheless if that is why they are always optimistic/more so than their operational colleagues. It's like they are learning ... but they are just in the 1980s middle school, where as the operational runs today are ... freshmen in college say. Lot of metaphor packed into all that but you get my gist -

We got this

The AIGFS has 7 snow events in the next 12 days.

Yeah not even worth looking at the GFS other than entertainment purposes

Until Early February, then Valentines is the period to watch, then its actually late February. Then its early March, remember, it can snow in March! Then people keep tracking potential but they are really just tracking spring. Meanwhile we got like 2 inches on the grass during that time. Happens every year. Last time things were actually good was 2014-2015 season; outside of the blizzard of 2016.

The last time we saw 1" of snow at GSP was 1/16/2022. 4 years tomorrow! I grew up in the 80's and don't remember ever going more than a year without seeing something.

Well.

Nothing like the good ole hr 300 storm on gfs

Gonna be a couple threats next week…Friday looking like the most threatening, but perhaps a smaller one on Wednesday. Most are focused on the 1/18 failure, but next week may fly under the radar until then.

I’ve found that the more you post, the better chance we have. Hopefully you start posting more in the coming weeks.

Triano would love this map

GFS and GEFS are 100% unusable .. the flip flopping is atrocious .. sticking with AIs EURO and then hires close in for now..

Oh dear

This makes a lot of logical sense to me. Even though I don’t have any expertise, you’ve explained it in a way that makes intuitive sense. If I had to pick the AI versus traditional models at this point, I would choose the traditional models.

Triangle needs snow!!!

Yikes.. well the AIs will be exposed this storm if they cave. They may need some more time.

I still think eventually we get some decent snow. But we have had a workable to somewhat favorable longwave pattern most of the winter season and have thus far largely wasted it. It's very frustrating.