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It better be. One of my favorite parts of the season is marveling at the synoptics behind those storms (and using them for practice!). Maybe I’ll make some breakdowns of the really crazy ones.

77 today. Beautiful

100 degrees in NYC in February! Woo hoo!

Yes, I think most of the winds on the latest recon were just about 70kt, if a bit more, and then surface winds should be lower than flight level, by 10 kt. I think the continued pressure of about 978mb supports relatively the same as this morning's recon, which may have had a bit of 75-80kt flight level.

Dewpoints in the upper 50s over SE TX which might as well be the Egyptian desert. If it's ramping up it has to now or very soon-because that's gonna hurt.

whatever that was or wasn't, okay. but that above is probably a record challenging warm blast clear to moose dung

And not over yet....maybe we should wait until after this winter to retire the NAMs...

i think this will be a pretty active thread bc of el nino this season

Very impressive ring of convection developing around the…. Eye…. Yes we have a legit eye now! Appears to be making another leap

For scale, I attached zoomed out WV image,. The CDO/core of Isaias is very small. That makes it much more susceptible to shear and dry air. Also, easier RI. The 12z HAFS A/B shows sig intensification, but the rate of weakening it shows just in the last 9 hr up to landfall is quite remarkable. Just from a wild extreme swing one end to the other, this may be an exceptional event meteorologically. We get lots of big RIs just before landfall (Michael, Otis), but going the other way? I know no Atlantic situation quite like this, at least for an impending landfall. Sure, many HUs elsewhere has got torn apart in short order, but it is so much different when close to landfall and the system is quite strong within say 12-15 hr of landfall. A lot more eyes are on it!

Dafuq?!?!?! And, given the late October timeframe, this would fall under the "plain ridiculous" category (but still kinda fun to look at)!!

Oklahoma also destroyed its old record. September 2026: 82.8° (old record: 80.1°, 1931). Virtually all of the state exceeded its prior monthly record.

They are reaching IMHO. No drop in pressure and FL winds the same? That tail radar measurement I bet was due to pulsing convection transitory spot wind, rather than true gradient. And the Dvorak does not support 85 kt winds. One observation does not take precedence over several observations that show the contrary. I just find if they can hedge higher for system threading land, they will.

FL supported 80 kts but they noted tail Doppler found slightly higher winds around them enough to justify the increase. With organization once again looking better there’s nothing to argue why further increases wouldn’t be expected tonight as well

lol

18z NAM suggest 1-3 inches region wide on Sunday

I feel like asking NHC if those 100 mph winds are in the room with them right now...

This happened w/ HU Lili in Oct 2002. It ramped up very quickly over the loop current, but once exiting, it weakened even faster in short order. 90 > 125 kt in 24 hr and then 125 > 80 kt in 24 hr at landfall. And the environment for LIli was not nearly as baroclinic w/ a lot of dry air/shear present as Isaias now. 20021002, 0000, , HU, 23.0N, 85.7W, 90, 967, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999 20021002, 0600, , HU, 23.6N, 87.2W, 100, 962, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999 20021002, 1200, , HU, 24.4N, 88.3W, 110, 952, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999 20021002, 1800, , HU, 25.4N, 89.5W, 120, 941, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999 20021002, 2013, I, HU, 25.9N, 89.9W, 125, 938, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999 20021003, 0000, , HU, 26.7N, 90.3W, 125, 940, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999 20021003, 0600, , HU, 28.1N, 91.4W, 105, 957, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999 20021003, 1200, , HU, 29.2N, 92.1W, 80, 962, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999 20021003, 1300, L, HU, 29.5N, 92.2W, 80, 963, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, 10

As I said, it'll hit Cat 3 before landfall.

I was not expecting 100 mph at this advisory especially with little to no change in pressure. Isaias is looking better on satellite now. Tonight probably best chance to overperform with that warm eddy and diurnal favorable timing for intensification before shear starts to offset everything.

Not a bad looking storm at all!

Eye has continued to develop and clear. Looks like a Cat 1-2 hurricane, which is what it is

The Nino is going to accelerate the warming to a degree no one has ever seen.