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Memphis went from 0.5" snow on 6z vs 6" snow on 12z hrrr

I think Boyer is doing a good job with how concerning this is but he could definitely use some stronger wording based off of this data.

as weve been seeing, secondary (coastal) is the key for that deformation band to set up. longer the primary holds on, it impedes coastal/comma head development.

Has the 12z run already or are you referring to the one from early this morning???

Definitely a couple of ass hairs there

You’re ripping like 0.60”+/6hr at times. Even with clearing there’s going to be compaction on the bottom of those cores as the weight increases on the lower crystals. A little wind will break the crystals down a bit too. So I just find it hard to see 12-15” of fluff in 6hrs during the meat of it. If you were clearing hourly then yeah…you’re probably getting 20-25:1 hourlies at times.

I’ll say the attitude has changed here locally in the last 24 hours. Most people think it’s a “bust” and won’t do anything. It’s unfortunate the hype that happened early with the snow because people aren’t understanding the ice threat

I think we are more worried about the orientation of the precipitation field... but that looks better too.

Some other 6zs - ICON, Canadian & Ukie.

Ratios will def be great up that way...the average should easily be in the 15:1 to 20:1 range up there and probably upwards of 22:1 to 23:1 during peak intensity.

You think it'll be that low (for Norrisville)?

Yeah, it's on its own island right now. CMC has it buried in the gulf.

I’m sure the deatbands know where to go, the usual spots…hopefully

Don't know if it means anything for us, but WB 12Z HRRR is a tick south at HR 31 compared to 6Z in Midwest

Right now I’d go 7-11” for HoCo, Baltimore, and HarCo. 6-8” for DC. 21” for Norrisville.

Most is going to fall between about 4pm Sunday and 2am Monday. That’s 1-2” per hour stuff.

They got to be leaning on gfs. I am curious what the warnings will read later.

Can someone please explain to me like I'm 5 how weather apps like AccuWeather can significantly decrease the ice totals and duration and severity of this storm in Greenville while the models euro/GFS are raising ice totals? AccuWeather has .19 for Saturday night and .17 for Sunday. So .36 for the whole storm. Chris Justus is hyping ice totals to catastrophic and giving Greenville .75. I'd say there's a huge difference between the damage .36 total of ice will cause as opposed to the .75 most everyone else is forecasting. Why these lowball ice predictions on these apps compared to everyone else?

I just take solace knowing that y'all suffer the opposite way when there's an unusual summer heatwave...

Word on street is that he is OC of choice for Minter and FO

Weeks like this make work tough. I have two important calls today and I'm not totally engaged.

La la lock it in.

BTV has been hinting at high end ratios up here.

I have 80 pounds of propane a 20,000 BTU vent free propane heater, a DC to AC converter for my jeep and a propane top skillet for cooking in a pan or on a griddle. But Lord, help us if we actually have to use these things for more than a day or so .

Never thought I'd see the day where we're calling 2" per hour 'crap'. Shame.