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Since the long range thread is starting to get jumbled with rumors or torchmas and multiple possible small events. I decided to start a thread. Will the lowlands score while nw continues it drought? Let's talk about it here.

I'm most "worried" about another miss south for Friday right now - pretty much all the models stick with the seasonal trend. Not gonna cry over missing 1", at least.

stuff like this pisses me off to no end. monday night it showed 28 for a high on christmast with a chance of light snow on long range. Now it shows a torch of course. I bet that is accurate vs the cold it just showed

I drove my 92 tempo up hill both ways to campus back then

1. No teleconnection even comes close to guaranteeing anything. But most have notable tendencies that make them helpful for forecasting. They’re useful tools, including the MJO, but they’re not crystal balls as the atmosphere is much too complicated for any one index to be reliable. I’d argue the MJO is about as good a tool as any of them. 2. I recently did an analysis of 3+ day long Dec phase 8 at RDU and found a whopping 78% of them to have been colder than normal: # of periods: MB 5 (22%), B 13 (57%), NN 0 (0%), A 2 (9%), MA 3 (13%) So, there have been nearly 4 times as many B/MB periods as A/MA periods at RDU for Dec phase 8 periods lasting at least 3 days. 3. Regardless, of what may come and in what phase, what about prior to that period? The period 12/3-16, most of which is forecasted to be in phase 8, is forecasted to end up with all colder than normal days at RDU and in much of the SE and to be at least in the top 5 cold for that period of the last 50 years! That would be 90 percentile cold.

Add Syracuse to that list. What an great start for them.

Can't believe all the complaining here and some folks saying we will never have a return to several above average snowfall seasons in a row here - - once again look at this history of NYC snowfall and try to explain it - we will return to above average snowfall seasons soon enough - its just that some of you younger folks have been spoiled by all of the much above average seasons since 2000........without a long stretch of much below normal seasons monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf

Lol.. for those of us who can "weather" the storm (so to speak), grab your popcorn and enjoy the show. We'll be back to our regular scheduled program after Christmas.

So sure enough, as soon as I got on the train in Mount Joy this morning some light mix started falling. Can any of my Lancaster peeps confirm that there was a period of very light wintry precip this morning?

Oh I have noticed lol

Totals mostly in the 4-6” range, even to our north. I think this is mostly because ratios were around 9:1 according to MPX. If we were in the 12:1 or 15:1 range we would have seen some of those higher totals verify. I think there ended up being a much bigger lull after that initial wave than the models showed. .

can't wait for the nam to tuck a low south of li

If you haven't noticed, that has already started and may peak well before Christmas.

Gefs continue with normal temps with ridge draped across the southern tier being pushed sw.

You’re not the only one

Finally above freezing, just in time for any precip. Funny how precip chasing warm always works out. 37F

We closed twice last year for cold, but never had enough snow to close for that

We are talking about possible light snow here on Friday and possible heavier event on Sunday... Keep up

Yeah. I'm really confused what were talking about here lol

In a warming climate we can get larger snowstorms which is what happened during 2010 to 2018. The main caveat was that we needed the dominant storm track to be colder to our southeast in order to realize the higher snowfall potential. With the northwest and warmer shift to the storm tracks since 2018-2019, we have resumed the long term downward trend in the snowfall setting all-time 7 year record lows for snowfall.

What are we doing here? I mean i know, but I don’t. There are two different things and 4 scenarios with each thing and alternating jacks that switch places between both things.

I do not know if anyone knows... but the Beta version of Pivotal Weather now has the Euro 6z/18z for free.

I know Nam is out of its range but just looping to 84 makes you wonder how some one doesn't get a nice 2-4" storm

Sure does If you live in Bloomington, IL