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Big decrease in snow totals by the NBM. Models feeling the big block to the north likely shedding the storm a bit. If we can get a big thump before the warm nose in the middle atmosphere, it’ll still allow for 3-6”. Let’s hope the north trend doesn’t continue too much or we’ll be sleeting. These heavy bands usually set up shop further north than expected. Id Expect that trend isn’t done yet

Well said. Merry Christmas to all, and to all, a snowy winter!

Merry Christmas!

Looking better around New Year's?

This is our moment x happy holidays comrades

A Ditty storm.

This warm up was projected to be more central/east, and ended up further west.

The future Ralphie 12z run smoked us

Here is the warm up no one thought was real - definitely verified as a much warmer period.

Wow. And this is what we are 'upgrading' to?

The new NAM was great with the last storm- weenie handbook page 67

Complete trash model .

Kids are all tucked in. Man what a magical time. It never gets old. Love this board. Wishing the best for all of you and yours. Twas the night before Christmas……

We desperately need the NAMs to score a win....though we know they likely wont.

9 times out 10 confluence is over modeled and weakens about 48 hours in on modeling

These are obnoxiously ignorant and offensive posts, which show little to no understanding about the workings of NOAA, NWS, numerical models, or even science in general. They're doubly odious after what all Federal employees, including those within NOAA, have had to deal with in this past year. You should be ashamed of yourself, if you are capable of that, for posting this utter drivel, especially at this time of year.

Poundmetown

And increase eastern areas

The idea seems to be a jet extension caused by a +east Asian mountain torque will help dislodge the Aleutian high. Here it is on the 18z GFS: Big high drops down into east Asia: Momentum gets added to the pac jet: Aleutian high dies: I almost wrote the "mountain twerkers" lol. Hope that jet extension doesn't go too far. That's burned us in the past.

Tblizz in particular.

That’s probably too far north but some of us never bought the GFS. Not when it rained and not when it was congrats DC to NYC.

Me too. Most of Southern New England wishes him nothing but the best.

After mostly minor fluctuations in the NBM, the latest 19Z took a decent hit in snowfall amounts for most, so I'd expect to see the NWS back off amounts at 4am by at least 1" or so for most if we see similar at 0Z, as they rely pretty heavily on the NBM.

Didn't have to change much on that one.