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I'm guessing a MCD for us by 230pm

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 553 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2026 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 553 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS PAC001-015-037-041-043-055-067-069-071-075-079-093-097-099-107- 109-115-119-127-131-133-102300- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0553.260810T1625Z-260810T2300Z/ PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BRADFORD COLUMBIA CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN FRANKLIN JUNIATA LACKAWANNA LANCASTER LEBANON LUZERNE MONTOUR NORTHUMBERLAND PERRY SCHUYLKILL SNYDER SUSQUEHANNA UNION WAYNE WYOMING YORK $$

The squall line pushing across PA looks healthy.

I have to ask...what's the point of standing near the car with the door open? Are you planning on jumping into the car before the bolt strikes?

Yeah nothing doing SNE tonight or the next week. Stein back

Zzzzzzzzzz

But the drought!?! /s

Like the other day, this area has likely laid down subtle boundaries across nrn VA and cntrl MA, perhaps providing local focus for storms later.

The ITCZ is suppressed by a few deg farther S than normal for this time of year. That is generally a sign things are not good in the MDR.

lots of sun this morning, feels juiced af even with the light e winds

And one thing that has made its presence known the last few years is the TUTT! And we have them here once again quite apparent in the fcst.

And 2% tor

Picked up .15” this am.

Good , we don’t need anymore rain

Yes I noted that but the forcing and shear make up for it. Timing not ideal either but we've seen a number of times this year solid tstms after dark. T/Td spreads come down in the evening which can help for svr.

SPC adds 30% wind risk from I-81 west for today.

Lower dews may be a bit of a killer today but we certainly could see a few strong storms around

Wx as a hazard is driven into the population relentlessly now, has been that way for decades. It is over-the-top w/ hype and fear-mongering, which is an issue in itself, but the very fact wx is front and center always time now, and still ppl "don't know" or "cry foul"? I find that largely an outdated excuse. Forecasts have improved greatly over that last 30 yr alone, and IMHO they are not the "problem" anymore. It's human nature, which is not going to change. Some ppl simply don't care, some resist anything from authority, some think "it won't happen to me" as noted by @weatherwiz, some get the proper information, but don't prepare or take enough action. There are countless reasons why ppl still lose their lives and are injured, and a large part of that these days has nothing to do w/ the severity/intensity of a given wx event. Improved forecasts and communications have reduced the tolls over time a lot (look at the reduced tolls in the U.S alone since 1900), but we have plateaued here IMHO. We are now "fighting" 3 things. 1) There are just more of us all the time, so more "targets" for wx. 2) The social science part w/ communication, attitudes, and probably the biggest thing now, *wx warning apathy* b/c ppl are sick of constantly in alert/warning status and endless hype. TPTB think too often "well just let's just warn more, and that will ‘fix’ it". As I have said many times, more is not always better, there comes a point of diminishing returns. Quality over quality is the main issue. When *not* to issue warnings/alerts I would argue now is just as important as when it is needed! 3) More and more, I find plain incompetence of those in change resulting in tragedy, like the Hill County TX flash flood last year. Have you read the report on that? Warnings were received, and some at the camps did not heed or take seriously. And this is particularly egregious for a fail b/c that area of TX is the most flash flood prone area in NAMR! You'd think as someone who is in charge there or runs things would know that and realize the risk is much higher than other areas, and NOT mess around when warnings are put out. We like to use the "wx/climate is getting worse" as a scapegoat for all the bad that happens, but there are many others factors present here, but heaven forbid ppl take responsibility for their actions (inactions) or admit they screwed up. Pass the blame to someone/something else. You can't fix problems/issues if you can't address, define, or source them correctly!

Usually, we are good WOR for at least a few decent bangers in the summer. This has been one of the quietest summers I can’t remember except for the silent light show a few weeks ago.

I think the aliens are here. Or will be.

We do it all we try to come here once a year and the kids love it..

Don't waste your money on the train ride. There's never any elk.

After yesterday's surprise uptick, figured creating a thread might be good for what models have really highlighted-- consistently-- as being the most active stretch, is warranted.