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Old man’s tropical wife died, got a baroclinic pet (new wife)

Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 800 AM MST Fri Sep 25 2026 After regaining Category 5 status overnight, the remarkable satellite presentation of Polo indicates the hurricane has continued to intensify. The eye has contracted and warmed over the past several hours, with temperatures above 20 deg C measured inside the eye. A thick, solid ring of deep convection surrounds the center, with cloud tops as cold as -80 to -85 deg C. There were no indications of a concentric eyewall structure in 0905 UTC AMSR3 passive microwave imagery. The latest UW-CIMSS ADT estimates and a T7.5 Dvorak classification from TAFB support an initial intensity of 155 kt. A NOAA research aircraft mission is scheduled to investigate Polo later today. Polo continues moving westward (270/10 kt) along the south side of a mid-level ridge that extends across northern Mexico. This weekend, a deep-layer trough approaching from the west is expected to erode the steering ridge. This will cause Polo to turn northwestward and northward as it moves around the western side of the ridge. By Monday, the increasing influence of the upper trough should turn Polo northeastward toward Baja California Sur and west-central Mexico. The global models and AI-based guidance are generally in good agreement on this track evolution. The updated NHC track forecast is adjusted slightly to the left of the previous one, and is also a bit slower to come into better agreement with the latest multi-model consensus. Overall, the NHC forecast remains on the faster and right side of the envelope, closer to HCCA and GDMI. Based on this prediction, watches could be required for portions of the Baja California Peninsula as early as Saturday. Based on the aforementioned AMSR3 data, an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) does not appear imminent. Thus, further slight strengthening cannot be ruled out while Polo remains over very warm waters in a weaker shear environment. The vertical wind shear is expected to increase over the weekend, and because of this as well as the possibility of a future ERC, the NHC intensity forecast shows a weakening trend beginning on Saturday and continuing into next week. Regardless, Polo is predicted to approach Baja California Sur as a strong hurricane early next week, and interests there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates. The NHC forecast remains on the higher side of the intensity guidance, generally following HCCA. Once land interaction occurs with the Baja California Peninsula and mainland Mexico, more rapid weakening is anticipated. Distant moisture from Hurricane Polo and Odalys will be transported into the southwestern United States this weekend and early next week, and may indirectly contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash flood threat in the region. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center for more information. Key Messages: 1. Polo is forecast to approach the Baja California Peninsula early next week as a hurricane. Interests there should closely monitor the latest updates and ensure that they have their preparedness plan in place. Watches could be required as early as Saturday for portions of the area. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo may begin to impact Baja California Sur late Sunday into Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 17.1N 108.5W 155 KT 180 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 17.2N 109.8W 155 KT 180 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 17.8N 111.5W 140 KT 160 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 18.9N 112.7W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 20.4N 113.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 28/0000Z 22.0N 113.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 23.8N 113.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 26.9N 110.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 30/1200Z 30.4N 106.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Reinhart

That clears it up… old man petting his wife.

BULLETIN Hurricane Polo Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 800 AM MST Fri Sep 25 2026 ...POLO IS AN EXTREMELY POWERFUL CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... ...INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 108.5W ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...900 MB...26.58 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Baja California Sur should closely monitor the progress of this system. Watches could be required for a portion of the area as early as Saturday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Polo was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 108.5 West. Polo is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through today. A gradual turn to the northwest and north is forecast on Saturday and Sunday, followed by a northeastward motion on Monday. On the forecast track, Polo is expected to approach Baja California Sur early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 180 mph (285 km/h) with higher gusts. Polo is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are possible today, but some weakening is expected over the weekend. Polo is forecast to approach Baja California Sur as a strong hurricane early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 900 mb (26.58 inches).

That’s what it’s looking like. Most of the precip will fall Saturday night into Sunday

Need to keep my power on this weekend, as there is too much good football to watch!

Any word on timing with this rain? TWC is showing Saturday is more showery in nature while putting the big rains for Saturday night into Sunday.

The summer lodging is already sold out. They started putting on these festivals during the usual quiet times before/after peak summer vacation. Probably should just rebuild RFK and bring hfstival back .

11 out of 10 today!! Feels like a winter day in Phoenix.

Just got to Brattleboro, Vt. to begin camping in Searsport, Me. (starting Wednesday instead of Sunday due to nor’easter) and leaf viewing plus other touristy stuff. Supposed to bc beautiful after Tuesday. 75° here at 3pm and sunny.

I went last year and we had one day of cold rain. I feel lucky I guess considering they've cancelled the whole weekend twice now.

Should be a good one.

We’ve got a true tempest on the way

definitely needed for LI and perhaps S CT given how wet it's been here

lol you rarely expect bad weather at the end of September unless it is from a hurricane, but here we are

Issue a goddamn flood watch! What is wrong with these people??

Latest OKX rainfall map:

Actually it’s been quite gusty here…a few of them had to be 30 or so.

Very aesthetically pleasing storm

There won’t be 2-3” of rain over a large area with this. You will see pockets of twice that much and less then an inch 20 miles away.

Tweed to 40

It took me a while…but I saw the old man face lol. Petting the wife…ya I don’t know bout that part?

Waaayyy over

first significant event of the season and I'm stuck in Soflo again for this dame test, looks like it's going to be a fun weekend up there, shit doesn't change here really, I was here for the whole month of August and locals were saying it was the hottest they've seen in a long time, was brutal. wish I was home for this.