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Placing yourself in someone else’s personal mental state is a science unto itself. This place has been an outlet and a hindrance to my own mental health. I know where TB12 is and I feel his pain. I’m pulling hard for the GFS to be the outcome.

You can see all the personal wx stations went down at the same time here. Right when gusts were starting to crank and it was raining hard.

18z gfs looks comically different than 12z. At 00z Wednesday, 12z had moderate to heavy snow over most of ma. At 18z it’s gone

Nao is negative so these south shifts isnt surprising.

Gfs south

Weaker too. Probably the biggest issue

Yeah I was going to reply to Scott earlier, probably going to need 3” to verify a white Christmas. 2” will be patches come Thursday morning

Woof.. GFS with the same big jump SW as ICON and RRFS .. has some currier and ives type stuff late Tuesday into Wednesday.

The NAM covers the grass for 12 of us.

That to me says we are in a sweet spot. Gulf lows come on down!

It’s too early to say whether January will be cold and snowy or not. What we do know is the polar vortex is now to expected to strengthen well above average levels, which favors +NAO conditions. That’s a reasonable baseline to operate from when assessing the expected January pattern. But it remains unclear if we will go country wide torch (mild and rainy east) or +TNH (cold, snowy east). Based on historical precedence of -PNA La Niña Decembers transitioning to +PNA (or less -PNA) Januarys, I am in the +TNH camp. As always, it is important to be open to adapting as we get new information. Historical precedence > long range guidance, but if the warm signal strengthens for Jan and we are near new years, then it’s time to reevaluate.

Top tier day.

RGEM went a tad north.. Guidance diverging a bit .. still 72 hours out ..

Side note just got home from work and I found 1 of the 2 great horned owls talking in front of my house. While a fox is barking somewhere in the woods behind house.

Nws has added the 84.6 wind recorded at montauk point lighthouse at about 36 feet in elevation to the winds. Had to get so much information for them since they didn't have access to weatherlink.

Icon is weird.. Shafts everyone NW of SWCT on Tuesday then gets everyone that missed out Tuesday overnight Tuesday into Christmas Eve with 1-3"

Agree

I kind of agree with Taunton on this one.. We are going to need 2"+ to have any chance at a White Christmas. Temps look to stay between 33-38 across SNE for about 30 hours between 15z Tuesday and 21z Wednesday, before tanking Wednesday after sunset. Anything under an inch will probably melt.

18z ICON shifted south also

Hot off the presses from NWS Upton. New anticipated Snowfall map: https://www.weather.gov/okx/winter New Disco: A near zonal northern stream flow will predominate through the extended forecast period, except for Wednesday with a ridge building from the Gulf coast states into central Canada. With the near zonal flow temperatures will be generally near seasonal normals, with no cold surges expected. Late Monday nigh a warm front will approach from the southwest, and push through most of the area during the day Tuesday. Light precipitation is likely with the front, and will begin as light snow across the region late Monday night, then as the warm air moves northward, the precipitation will mix with and eventually change to rain, initially along the coast, and then further inland as the day progresses. The warm air may not reach the far inland section, mainly the Lower Hudson Valley, and a rain/snow mix may continue through Tuesday. Bufkit soundings are indicating the possibility of a wintry mix inland as warmer air aloft surges northward. A mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain will be possible. And with the upper levels drying through the day the precipitation becomes light. With the uncertainty in precipitation type, and timing will continue with just a rain/snow mix. High pressure builds into the region for late Tuesday

This is a Maine storm.

I have not followed it beyond 48-60 with storms so far. I do know its had a bias of being too warm aloft, so basically the reverse of what the HRRR bias is

LOL the replacement for NAM and HRRR: RRFS is a toaster bath for most of this forum.. It ticked SW another 35 miles from 12z.. It has 1-3" for SWCT down to central jersey and shutouts everyone else.. RRFS did really good with the last storm, so it has my attention.. It will have to earn our respect though..

I’m not thinking that’s real this time . Maybe

Just wait for the 18z gfs and euro to bring you and TauntonMeh back..