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I noticed the wild fires N of Superior yesterday. Their plumes were streaking from source, due E at ludicrous speeds... owing to the ridge amplitude kissing the modest lower heights over midriff Canadian shield. ..blah blah. That said, there's definitely an MCS that's raged through eastern Ontario ...curving now SE through western QUE and is producing the typical outflow anvil canopy. It seems likely based upon these observations that both are true. It's probably hard to parse out of the vis satellite images how much is smoke and how much is cloud...I'd suggest most of what is seen is cloud however.

Tough way to run a torch day. Maine stealing the rain. Looks like a nice storm diving into the CT Lakes in a bit. Been limiting screen time…just hit or miss posts. Lots of eye inflammation and migraines. Should probably get a lyme test but that would require going to a dr. 71°

There is mixed research on smoke and storms. In some cases the smoke layer can actually hold the cap longer and allow the instability to really build before breaking (think smoke absorbs heat and warms that layer aloft). But that really depends on the height of the smoke layer.

A lot of times, these seasonal models lean too heavily into the ENSO state. Same with the CPC seasonal outlooks. We saw that the last 2 winters with too much emphasis on the SE ridge in the East. Since this El Niño is going to be very strong to historic, I feel that the generic outlooks for the seasonal mean this winter will end up being more accurate. We will also need to see if the pacific jet strengthens this Fall and begins to reverse the -PDO.

Gorgeous morning. Nice breeze bringing in that ocean air smell into Meadowlands in Kearny, seagulls laughing. Close you eyes you could almost envision being at the shore.

Wiz to his credit mentioned this as a possibility just yesterday

Looking at the sat pics this morning there are lots of fires burning in Southern Ontario. The thick smoke plume is moving into our area. How much is this going to affect the severe storms later for NNE? Also the MCS is creating a lot of cloud cover especially this morning. So we are not getting much insolation. Maybe this will reduce convection later?

I knew what you meant ... I was just adding for general readers that physics requires that a well mixed column has to obey the adiabat temperature distribution in general. If it is 2 am , and the 850 is 20C, and it is well mixed, it's in the 90s at the sfc. Whether or not the atmosphere is can be well mixed at 2 am or not is another matter LOL. That's why nearing evening on hot days, if one is excruciatingly nerdy enough like me... they might notice the light west wind that had steadily rustled leafs all afternoon suddenly goes calm; it's because the surface - albeit still hotter'n Hades - has slipped below the adiabat. That adiabatic temperature might be 98 given the 850, but the sfc has by then dropped below that temp...etc. DP plays a role... if the air is heavier it may stay elevated longer. The other way to think of it is that the mixing height has slipped lower than 850, and if there is a weaker/no gradient in those lower levels, that extinguishes the momentum.

Exactly what I was getting at the past couple of days...pattern resembles La Nina right now. In the past, this would imply a flaw in the development of El Nino, whether it be weak and/or poorly coupled. However, that is not necessarily the case in our modern climate. Powerful, well coupled warm ENSO and cold phase Pacific are no longer mutually exclusive due to the degree of heat that is now stored in the Pacific basin. ENSO simply isn't as prominent a driver anymore because it's partially offset and this is what RONI tries to convey. I think Adam perceived this as me saying that El Nino isn't as well developed as most think, but that is not at all the case. It's just facing more prominent competition from around the hemisphere relative to it's predecessors.

Wednesday the smoke could reach all the way to the surface in some areas- that combined with the very hot temps could make it the most dangerous day of the season so far..........

Some hi res show an iso storm around here tomorrow. Probably ends up south though.

some low end thunder chances entering the mix, probably a miss west/south but will be nice to see some towers again

.27 overnight. Storm total of 3.54

This is another example of how the models past 15 days really don’t have much skill other than general forecasts for ENSO SST plumes. Notice the locations of the ridges and troughs verifying are reversed from the seasonal forecast issued in May. Most of the time during the 2020s summers the long range models miss the strong -PDO and +AMO influence of these greatly expanded subtropical or mid-latitude ridges. July forecast issued in May Verification so far

Most everyone cashed in, but still some losers and winners.

9z HRRR for JACK Probably would like to see a bit more curvature in the 0-1km layer for true concern for a strong tornado, but those sfc winds end up more 200° you're going to ramp that up quickly. But this is a significant amount of CAPE up to the EL and that mlvl shear. You get a mature supercell moving into this environment and you're probably looking at a spaceship structure. Pretty good inflow into the environment too.

Methuen borders Lawrence I can always smell smoke where I live in Methuen....

Definitely a lack of +U out there in the N pac. Wonder if this changes in the Fall.

I can smell it outside right now.

This is interesting: Some of the high-res guidance is beginning to come around to the idea of showing convective development trailing back westward along a cold front with a weakening capping inversion into central VT/NH as soon as early overnight; but the timing and coverage of this activity still is pretty scattershot across the high-res suite. This could ultimately end up being a nowcast situation, but given this trend I couldn`t really justify NBM`s nil PoPs. Opted for up to 30% PoP along the MA/NH/VT border between 4-7 AM Wed, then slowly sagging southward through the day. If any storms develop, they would likely become strong to potentially severe quickly given the degree of instability aloft and pretty strong NW mid-level winds, with frequent lightning, hail and strong straight line winds all possible, potentially early in the day as well. Low confidence but potentially higher impact if storms can materialize.

Smoke

Yay Zone Forecast Product National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 456 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026 DCZ001-141200- District of Columbia- Including the cities of Adams Morgan and Washington 456 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026 .REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...Clear. Lows in the mid 60s. Light and variable winds. .TODAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 90s. Southwest winds around 5 mph. .TONIGHT...Clear. Lows in the mid 70s. Southwest winds around 5 mph. .WEDNESDAY...Sunny, hot with highs around 101. West winds 5 to 10 mph. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy in the evening, then clearing. Lows in the upper 70s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. .THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Hot with highs around 100.

Debris clouds