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With El Niño favored for next fall/winter, I looked at multiyear La Niña Febs immediately preceding El Niño: 1911: cool NE/mild elsewhere 1918: cool NE/mild SE 1972: cool 1976: warm 2009: mild NE/NN SE 2018: warm 2023: warm Feb: SE temps/RDU snow1911: 1 AN/0”1918: 3 AN/T and some ZR1972: 5 BN/1.4” SN/IP1976: 5 AN/T2009: 1 AN/T2018: 7 AN/0”2023: 9 AN/0”Average of these 7 Febs at RDU: 3 AN, 0.2” SN/IPOf the 7:-one was cold-two were NN-four were mild to warm So, these analogs favor the @snowman19mild Feb thinking in the SE. So, if we get another 2/2014 like I think both@40/70 Benchmarkand Eric Webb are more or less favoring (correct me if I’m wrong), I’d be thrilled since these analogs don’t favor it. In the NE, these analogs are mixed with 3 BN and 4 AN.

Dang y'all old I was just 5 years old so I don't remember the whole picture but nevertheless it was my first snow memory! I remember my mom trying to teach me how to do snow angels, and telling me at first that the snow was too deep for me and it would be up to my chin (accurate, lol), and I remember being home from school. I'm so glad that's my first my memory of snow...it was awesome!

yeah - I was in Staunton - our neighborhood was a little bit higher than the center of town. We got around 33" or so. Missed school that whole week. So many snow forts and tunnels...

We’re the same age, I was 12 and remember it like it was yesterday. Got 30”+ in NJ

I was twelve - 3 feet of snow. All-timer.

im excited

From December until January 2nd subsurface. You can see very little movement has occurred but there is some decent potential showing up that the WWB event showing up may in fact trigger a kelvin wave that has some umpphhh behind it. Im curious if we can finally knock out the pesky cool anomaly that has been around even during the last Nino event around 140W in the subsurface. Im not so certain we push Nino status going into Spring and summer but certainly worth watching if more WWB's start to develop as time goes on. Fun stuff! Beginning of January a bit warmer than I expected but should quickly reverse course in the next week and finally dislodge the cold across Alaska and NW Canada.

That and probably genetics. You have at least some longevity in your bloodline. I attribute my own good fortune to pure luck. No one in my bloodline has made it out of their 70s. I like dad bod…I’m gonna use that for me! And one more thing/this winter is growing more sour by the day.

maybe see if Belichick wants to leave UNC

yep - it's the all-timer.

We've only had one month. And in that month, this year beats 93/94. WX/PT

Definitely pay attention mid month with that big PNA spike. Models trying to nose dive a northern stream disturbance. Miller B potential?

On the other hand, if this pattern coming up is nothing more than another tease, I am ok with a really early spring....just got my first seed catalog in the mail and the boys start indoor baseball this weekend, so I could go either way.

0z GFS is looking a lot more interesting for the chance on the 15th. Definitely room for possible improvement at the surface with this look at H5.

Yes it has looked and felt like winter. Good vibes, at least.

Right? Hopefully we can have a nice mid winter run for once. Not complaining though, despite the overall lack of snow, it has felt like winter for a change. Now lets gets some bigger systems and actually get an average winter for a change

even that year produced one really decent storm in feb.

Cool looking h5 on gfs @ 180hr.

Meant to share earlier

Well the AIGFS has some overrunning only 12 days out… temps cooperate. Generally 2-3” with more further south.

Same but 30 and very light freezing rain. Absolutely anemic precipitation field with this system.

Great to have your obs from the middle of the Upper Valley radar hole! Probably the worst area of radar coverage in a New England region of considerable population

Chuck, But for the second straight year it will be a borderline weak/moderate Niña based on RONI: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

All good. Just funny timing.