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I don't think you are using analogs correctly if you are waiting for one to "verify"....it's not about finding a replica season, it's about determining which analog seasons have value and what element of each analog season offers said value. I thought the 2013-2014 (favorable east Pacific with roughing over NE USA) analog had a great deal of value last season....as did the 1999-2000 analog. 1972-1972 (Pacific cold phase competing with potent warm ENSO) was a very telling analog for the prior season.

naso lucky today, getting plumed

Color me surprised. I've just accepted it's going to rain every saturday

i know this is late, but i was busy Saturday and Sunday. That storm Friday night was worse then any remanents from any hurricane that we ever had. I have never been nervous about the big trees in my yard as i was Friday, early Saturday. Its sounded like a Phucking freight train. The FD started going on calls around 1030, never stopped answering alarms until about 4am, The Enola area had so many trees and wires down more then i can ever remember in all my years as a fireman. So many transformer were blowing it sounded like a war zone and we were being bombed.

Month of May total 7.19" at my station. Highest temp 84f, lowest 46.

Bet we see those weekend temps bump up a bit

Great week coming up. Love to see those first triple H's.

…… and some innocent bystanders. As always ……

Got down to 44 here this morning. Happy Summer!

Yeah 40 mph gusts are common on the beach front with the Ambrose jet. The strongest events I have witnessed in 26 years of ocean life gaurding is probably close to 60mph. I have a hand held anemometer so I’ll take some readings this week.

What you need to do is adjust the thermostat to a number lower than 75 haha

2 weekends in a row ruined for good beach weather now. Can’t get it much over 70 on the shore before either clouds/rain or the 40mph Ambrose Jet. There are days where that wind approaches 50mph.

Another gorgeous chilly morning. Great sleeping weather with windows open and fans on. 49 in paramus, nj when i got to work this morning.

17/7/3

Where did you think you moved to? Seriously though, I don't know if you actually understood the climate in New England. There have always been hot days, this isn't Labrador.

I haven't planted my cucumbers yet. Too cold. My tomato plants look the same as they did when I planted them 3 weeks ago. Just a little more unhealthy due to cold nights. Potatoes and cannabis don't seem to mind cold windy springs.

Smoke ‘em’ if you got em’?

We furnace we Stein this month

Low of 44 in Marysville on this 2nd day of June.

it's been interesting observing this unseasonable trough protect our region from smoke. The larger synoptic circulation associate with has kind of rampart the outside environment from getting into the interior trough axis. Folks may wanna keep in mind that today is the last day of said protecting... Not sure how/if smoke may factor into these "warm" days this week. MOS/machine guidance appears reasonable to me - normally I'd go a tick or two above during a recovery period in early Junes but trend to always be on the lowest side of correlations ( since last December really... ) always seems to find a way to perpetuate itself and this rendition it grabs a hold of smoke to perhaps keep us from making the illustrious 90 mark Wed/Thur haha. I mean like this spring's comically deducing means to prevent heat from materializing - despite the verified numbers ( relatively...)

40.2 for the low, currently 40.8/40.0 with clear skies.

Because weather forums are filled with psychos. happy birthday btw lol

Low of 48, nice walking weather.

My analysis isn’t contingent on whether folks here are receptive or not. My only focus is getting the pattern correct. You will notice how we haven’t had a single analog for any winter forecast issued in the last 30 years verify if that analog was in the prior base state. Base state number 1 was from the late 1800s into the late 1970s. Base state 2 was 1984 to 1997. Base state 3 occurred from 1998 to 2015. Base state 4 was from 2016 to 2022. The new warmest base state 5 only began in 2023. I have begun using this forecast and analysis technique with great success in recent years. But there are some overlapping features which have continued through the varying base states. Such as La Niña mismatch winters which I identified for the recent winter forecast last October. The mismatch replayed during the recent 24-25 winter leading to the strong -EPO and +PNA. But this base state was so much warmer that a 13-14 analog couldn’t be supported. This is what I pointed out last December. I first began using this technique back in the 2010s. There were numerous instances during this decade when some outlets were going with 1970s analog packages . But I pointed out how this new base state couldn’t support that type of cold. So in effect each new warmer base state had been producing weaker reflections from prior eras. Such as the 24-25 winter very weakly reflecting the strong +PNA -EPO of 13-14 and 14-15. But the much warmer Pacific and faster Pacific Jet eroded the ridge from the west leading to frequent jet extensions which knocked the ridge down. The other feature was the lack of a strong cold trough to the east. I also pointed out last fall how warm Canada was compared to those earlier years. Which continued into last winter. So the amount of Arctic air in North America was much more limited compared to 13-14 and 14-15. Since we are only a few years into this new warmer 2023 base state, there will probably be more weak reflections of winters from the past to come. But getting the levels of cold and snow and cold will struggle compared to earlier eras. The other thing to observe is that we still haven’t had a +7 winter and higher warm departure like occurred in 2001-2002 in this new much warmer climate from Philly to Boston. The departures in 23-24 and 24-25 have come in just below those levels with smaller departures than 01-02. So 22-23 was only about .5° cooler in the actual temperatures than 01-02 with a smaller departure in a much warmer base state. If we get a +7 in this new much warmer base state, then the 01-02 winter record for warmth will be easily eclipsed. But it’s uncertain as to whether or when we would see a +7 winter in this much warmer climate. Something that extreme would probably only become obvious once we’re were into the actual pattern. As it’s not easy to predict a +7 winter ahead of time. But my guess is that there is at least some chance we see a winter that would exceed the warmth experienced in 22-23 and 23-24 from Philly to Boston by 2030. The one caveat is a major volcanic eruption such as the earth hasn’t seen in hundreds or perhaps thousands of years to temporarily shift us back into a colder base state.

46° rain wtf is this