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We had patchy frost yesterday morning. Keokee in northern Lee County hit 31 with widespread frost .

I agree brother. I was just pointing out how the main Driver and Analog Computer generated Outlook basically, that Don Sutherland came up with with his meticulously done Calculations. Check it out in the main Forum. Interesting, although like you, I'm hoping the Asian snow/ice above average buildup and weak PV you noted does help. I don't know if he factored those Parameters in or not. He went into some detail on what was used but, seemed mosly analogus to similar late Summer Years and ENSO Status. Those boiling WPAC SST'S will cause a firehouse PAC Jet so, depending on how strong Blocking in the AO Domain is, it could present a problem for us. Our best hope for is that those Waters in the NEPAC warm back up ala 2013-14. That would help augment ridging into Alaska and western Canada. I had high hopes earlier for a likelihood of a dominant -NAO due to the cold SST'S around Newfoundland but, those have since warmed dramatically. Hopefully something will cool them once again.

66.8 today

17-18 getting some love on twitter recently as an analog. Webb likes it too. December and January were BN, but January was very dry overall so not much snow. February was a torch. That winter had the equinox snow in March in response to the late winter SSW. https://x.com/justinwx/status/1979664917369364740?s=46&t=JYOHM881b6groqc0-RqtxA

Scoring

Great drive. Ran the ball down their throat.

Cold air is building. Patience. Colder pattern develops in the 1st week of November with the NAO and AO dropping.

Cold air is building. Patience. Colder pattern develops in the 1st week of November with the NAO and AO dropping.

And right as I send this, Smolik enters the game and Allen breaks out a big run.

IOW, "persistence forecasting"?

Penn State's offensive line is "tits on a nun" level of useless. I don't know now this unit could get so bad so quick. I don't really think it matters who is under centre with these guys up front. Having said that, Kotelniki using Smolik throughout is showing more creativity than Franklin had allowed at any point prior to this week, and if the line could actually block, Allen and Smolik likely have enough yardage between the two of them to force Iowa's secondary to come in a bit and the receivers would get a little bit of separation. But damn this line stinks.

One of the most uninteresting and boring seasons I can remember. It’s hilarious we have had two 5s tho in the middle of literally nothing else

Was great day to mow the grass for the last time this season! Will be swapping the garage for the Christmas decorations by the front door and the lawnmower packed in the back! 77 for a high today was quite warm! Probably do it again tomorrow!

Low once again of 43, high 76. Dew points climbed into the upper 50's but still a very nice day.

Yeeeeah, put another way even simpler… As long as the climate curve is pointed up that intrinsically favors warmer than normal at all times. And so without any contravening indicator that are sufficiently loud even reasonable… they’re probably just gonna operate on that former basis

The mighty Pemi ! Not much depth to begin with. A lot of ass dragging spots. Took a date for her first time kayaking. She got caught in a snag and the kayak filled with water . She was screaming for help. Told her to stand up. No second date... But yeah that's dry...

Can you keep him north of the border please.

Yes. Errors increase at greater depths. This data is reliable.

Already up to 1.5”. Call looking good. What we’ve lacked in severe weather locally we’ve made up for in long-duration thunderstorms.

Nothing colder than a kid's soccer tournament. My daughter played in the South Shore League. Quincy, duxbury, situate, Hingham, not a warm town in the bunch In late fall.

74 was the high today. A warm one.

Thanks, Don. What you’re saying seems intuitive. Do you think these at depth SSTA maps can be trusted for accuracy?

More social media disinformation: The reality: Source of subsurface anomalies: CyclonicWx.com. I circled the depths and added the label to show what is occurring. were volcanoes responsible, SSTAs would be increasing at depth.

We hit 92 again today. FUCK! I am sick to death of summer in late October. I want cold with high winds. I want tons of rain, wind-whipped heavy torrential rain in 43 degree conditions, I want floods in EVERY low water region while I am trying to deliver at 0423 am. I want high winds and rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain rain and frigid COLD weather and floods floods floods and mud so damn deep I get completely ENGULFED in it! I am sick and tired of this relentless 1930s dust bowl wasteland! I want severe Siberian fronts with captured Gulf of Mexico lows that dump rain for weeks, get captured and just flood the hell out of South Central Texas! I want my freezing COLD! I want my RAIN! I want my rightful Kerr County floods! I want my freezing cold mud!

Intuitively, makes sense and I agree. The MC is a tricky area for convection though and can play games sometimes. We'll see what modeling trends decide to do with it over the coming days. I suspect it will make it as well, but we'll see.