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First, I know they try, but since there are so many stations that haven't existed since 1901, they are obviously filling in blanks. Where they received that info and how it's calculated makes or breaks it's accuracy. The fact is, Capital City airport in the northern tip of York County was +2.2 and +2.5 for June/July going back to 1939 and York Airport since the start of recording back to 1998, at the southern end of York County, was +2.1 and 2.9. They have York County at +4.1. That map has the the entire County in +3-5. So we're relying on exactly what to piece temps? As for the recent heat, it means nothing to me. I'm not scared.

The lack of rain is very annoying

I'm planning on it in 2-3 weeks. maybe the pattern will de-stein a bit by then.

Torch!!

Seeing some yellows and reds around my office in Cecil County, MD. .

The people who subscribe are getting what they want and want to hear, so they probably don't really care about what others say. Similar to the people who want to hear that the world is going to end in 10 years and glue themselves to priceless paintings.

Where's the early Fall? #Moregarbage.

Again, I’m not posting this because I’m trying to push it. Rather, I just want others to be aware of what WxBell, which has a large # of subs and thus a lot of visibility, is pushing via JB and to try to generate discussion: Looks Like Dr Viterito and I are Getting under someones skin This is an example of the kind of propaganda that was once reserved for other matters, but since a group of people now considers climate to be that kind of matter, they will do the same thing. The strategy, of course, is to say something that does have truth, but then do not fill in the entire picture. Naturally, the graphic attacks volcanoes and solar, both known for natural variability in the climate. But consider this. The cumulative buildup of heat in the ocean from increased solar and ( humor me here) some of the ideas on geothermal explain pretty nicely the buildup over the years of ocean heat. The sudden increase that Tonga and the el nino represented certainly added to it. You can't explain the jump from man-made causes, nor the significant drop that has started, so natural causes certainly explain much of the buildup But here is how the propaganda works. The pusher of the missive does not show the drop in 2025. ( Another favorite idea is to scream about Greenland falling into the sea when there happens to be a season where there is more than normal melt, but ignoring all the other years that have been occurring that have more than average snow and ice) Nor does the pusher fail to mention the drop off in MOSZA, and the drop in temperature seems to have some link. Nor can the pusher explain the record warmth in the north Pacific, the cooling in the NW Atlantic that is leading to the greatest difference at 40 north between the Pacific warmth and the NW Atlantic cooling on record. Gee, I wonder what could be causing the warmth where it is in the Pacific basin. must be a coincidence Or is there a magic CO2 fairy that bestows warmth where it so desires? BTW, the drop off in input in the Atlantic, though still warm, means it's quite a bit cooler Last year at this time current that is a pretty impressive drop off One may say, Joe, all you talk about is the opposite ideas of man-made warming. Well, that's because you have to be deaf or blind not to know their idea. It's all we are bombarded with, so I assume the reader knows the other side, because you can't help but know it. It's all you hear. Look at this "study" as an example of how this works. It's put out with loud fanfare and has none of the competing ideas that call it into question, even though the headline itself takes potshots at the very counters to it. And for good reason. Putting in competing ideas would lead to rational doubt. And that is not what propaganda is supposed to do. The only solution is to at least put other ideas out there, and give YOU the freedom to make the choice. In the end, the equation I put out 20 years ago when I started to get involved in this, still applies: The Sun, the oceans, stochastic events, and the very design of the system far overwhelm anything man can do to the climate and weather This has to really get people mad who think they can control the weather and climate and the fate of humanity.

NNE still winning the heat battle

49 this morning, 79 now.

76/54 September CoC

The 12Z EPS has a notable signal for a TC formation (~25%) in the S Gulf with them moving mainly N to WNW and then hitting or threatening to hit from NE MX through TX/LA. But this could be mainly gone on the 0Z for all we know since this run looks much different vs earlier runs and its way out in the unreliable late week 2.

80 my high today

NOAA's official website has June-July as 3rd warmest, only behind 1949 and 1934 https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/county/mapping/36/tavg/202507/2/anomaly Important to note that it also shows that the 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, and 10th warmest June-Julys for Pennsylvania have all happened since 2005.

Thanks Don! Unlike meteorology, I actually know statistics so this is great. Much appreciated.

76° / 51°. Actually feels kind of hot working in the sun.

For the record but fwiw since it’s still well out in wild guessing land, the 12Z Euro directly hits Bermuda 9/14-5 as a MH as it moves NE.

Looks like a Greenland block in October:

Hopefully the ASOS service life extension program makes the network more reliable. It's 30 years old at this point and really starting to show its age.

See I don’t even quantify it that strictly … I mean, I know what you’re saying there, but I think it’s more apt to say that the return rate for big winters (which might even be a subjective powderkeg) is going to get less and less and just leave it at that. Even acceptable winters raritying moving forward. We’re not at 0 now tho To state at the obvious… ruts can and will occur independent of climate change. However, with the ladder aspect raging on would increase return rate of the ruts. We have to kind of think of it that way. Btw, n my own methods, toying with the notion that the winter or a quasi winter state is early loaded. I have no idea how that conforms or does not conform to anyone or any consensus. I don’t really get into seasonal forecasting

No real torchy stuff for a bit. Maybe around the 10th it ramps up some.

Nice evenings and mornings make warm afternoons in the 80s easy going this week. Except Friday could hit 90 which will feel hot. Prefrontal warming strikes before a cool weekend. Looking out a week the next warm up is weaker, as one would expect deeper into September. Great Lakes trough will take a couple short-waves to cool down our region. See Friday prefrontal heat. Later next week after the Great Lakes mean trough fills, 500 mb heights should remain at or below normal in the Southeast. Midwest warmth should get into the Mid-South at times but it should be brief.

Pretty sparse late week rain chances on the WB 12Z globals.

55 for the low

planned for some overseeding/new seeding this Fall, but not looking like it'll happen. Don't want to tax the well