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So I shouldn't cancel my trip to California next week?

Yes sir. They all do…it’s always been that way. If we cashed in on all the misses this year…it’s a record breaker. That’s why record breakers are so rare. But even If we don’t get another flake this winter…it’s been an excellent winter season in every aspect imo. Sure, Things can always be better(wish we here maximized the blizzard-oh well)…but zero complaints overall. If we pick up some more snow…then it’s even better.

Getting solid relief in NC today

We truly might be out of gas and time. We’ve had miracles in less lead times tho. I’m arranging the deck trains and playing my violin. If we go down, might as well go down with glory. Let’s bring whatever this is home.

It coming it march is OK with me, we had a cold winter. March I’m ok with warmups

El Niño is just what the doc ordered for much of the SE. But its main wet effects would probably not be til Nov based on history. We’ll see as no two Nino’s are the same. In the meantime more normal rainfall will hopefully show up in March.

The American Storm @BigJoeBastardi · 6m Euro AI is getting wild Heat wave next weekend ends with snowstorm around Friday the 13th. Beware the ides of March this year, because after the surge, winter fights back till around Easter . You cant keep a good stratwarm down

Hours of 35-40DBZ with good snow growth is 3-4”+/hr. Fact not opinion. He’s off the rails. Maybe something was wrong with the accordion?

What about Jan 25-26th? That had to be at least a NESIS 2 or 3 maybe higher considering how many big cities were impacted with significant snow. Especially NYC to BOS. That's gotta be coming i would think. I dont see it on the NCEI site yet. If something like Jan 7th 2022 is on there i have to imagine Jan 2026 will be coming.

Still a chance mid week

I thought we just don’t know?

Do we?

Thanks. The EPS and JMA (see images below) continue to also be consistent with their respective prior runs having it progress more quickly and at low amplitude inside circle vs the GEFS: these get to phase 7-8 by the 6th-7th when GEFS is just entering phase 6. GEFS as you’ve pointed out tends to be more accurate in this sector with its progression but often with too much amplitude when the others are weaker like in the current case. So, I’ll be looking for the actual amplitude to verify weaker than GEFS and stronger than EPS/JMA perhaps close to the circle. I’ll be also looking for the progression to be a little faster than GEFS but slower than EPS.

More often than not, that’s what they do.

And just as we think it looks bleak(which has been said many a time this winter), the next couple cycles will show some more winter in true 25-26 fashion. But if not…I think we are all pretty ready for some nicer and warmer weather. Before it reloads to misery by the mid and end of March. We know that’s coming…that’s the sad part.

A volcanic eruption is not necessary for a great winter. However, one certainly helps. Just look at 92-93, 93-94, and 95-96, following Pinatubo. In fact, they are still 3 of the Top 4 snowiest winters in State College, PA: 1 1993-1994 109.3 0 2 1995-1996 99.0 0 3 1977-1978 98.2 0 4 1992-1993 92.5 0 However, we have had great stretches of winters (2002-03 to 2004-05, 2008-09 to 2010-11, and 2013-14 and 2014-15) even without a volcanic eruption. If we can have another great winter in 2026-27, we could add another great stretch of winters.

It's right where we want it at this lead time! :/

still plenty at central park i'd say 10 inches left

It will come back

March 1960 The coldest March in Harrisburg history Date High (°F) Low (°F) 03/01/1960 32.0 20.0 03/02/1960 33.0 18.0 03/03/1960 28.0 19.0 03/04/1960 24.0 18.0 03/05/1960 25.0 18.0 03/06/1960 31.0 18.0 03/07/1960 25.0 11.0 03/08/1960 29.0 12.0 03/09/1960 31.0 13.0 03/10/1960 33.0 19.0 03/11/1960 32.0 12.0 03/12/1960 35.0 17.0 03/13/1960 35.0 18.0 03/14/1960 37.0 23.0 03/15/1960 39.0 21.0 03/16/1960 37.0 20.0 03/17/1960 38.0 30.0 03/18/1960 43.0 33.0 03/19/1960 41.0 28.0 03/20/1960 42.0 29.0 03/21/1960 37.0 28.0 03/22/1960 39.0 25.0 03/23/1960 37.0 23.0 03/24/1960 45.0 27.0 03/25/1960 32.0 22.0 03/26/1960 43.0 23.0 03/27/1960 59.0 29.0 03/28/1960 72.0 41.0 03/29/1960 67.0 42.0 03/30/1960 65.0 46.0 03/31/1960 61.0 52.0 MARCH 1960 SNOW & PRECIPITATION BREAKDOWN DAYS WITH SNOW RECORDED Date Precip Snow Ratio (S:L) --------------------------------------------- 03/03/1960 1.05" 10.5" (10.0:1) 03/04/1960 0.01" 0.2" (20.0:1) 03/05/1960 0.01" 0.1" (10.0:1) 03/07/1960 0.02" 0.6" (30.0:1) 03/08/1960 0.01" 0.4" (40.0:1) 03/10/1960 0.09" 1.8" (20.0:1) 03/16/1960 0.26" 3.2" (12.3:1) 03/17/1960 0.44" 3.0" (6.8:1) 03/21/1960 0.01" 0.2" (20.0:1) 03/22/1960 0.18" 2.0" (11.1:1) 03/24/1960 0.01" 0.2" (20.0:1) 03/26/1960 0.04" 0.4" (10.0:1) --------------------------------------------- Subtotal: 2.13" 22.6" (10.6:1) Snow Day Count: 12 DAYS WITH NO SNOW RECORDED Date Precip ------------------------- 03/01/1960 0.00" 03/02/1960 0.00" 03/06/1960 0.00" 03/09/1960 0.00" 03/11/1960 0.00" 03/12/1960 0.00" 03/13/1960 0.00" 03/14/1960 0.00" 03/15/1960 0.00" 03/18/1960 0.00" 03/19/1960 0.00" 03/20/1960 0.00" 03/23/1960 0.00" 03/25/1960 0.00" 03/27/1960 0.00" 03/28/1960 0.00" 03/29/1960 0.00" 03/30/1960 0.32" 03/31/1960 0.07" ------------------------- Subtotal: 0.39" MONTHLY TOTALS Total Precipitation: 2.52" Total Snowfall: 22.6" 1960 TEMPERATURE RANKINGS (1 = Coldest) Month | Avg Temp | Rank (Coldest) ---------------------------------------- March | 31.7F | 1/126 April | 56.7F | 118/126 May | 59.9F | 25/125 June | 70.5F | 45/125 July | 72.9F | 4/125 August | 75.0F | 82/125 Watching MU Twitter as this unfolded would have been a guilty pleasure Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

From the NCEI site: NCEI is targeting a late-week release for the February 22-24, 2026 snow storm NESIS value.

Im cool with snow until astronomical Spring. After that bring on the blooming, lighter clothes, and open car windows (thanks sun angle!). We’ve had a lot of Winters recently that have just been slightly cooler Springs, but this has felt like a wall-to-wall winter so whenever the change in season happens will be welcome this year. (Still hoping the western crew can at least get a consolation event to end things)

From the NCEI site: NCEI is targeting a late-week release for the February 22-24, 2026 snow storm NESIS value.