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120-140" in your hood

The "right"? The source of that article isn't right-leaning. But if you just said media in general, sure, I agree that they often use language with a bias and intent other than objective reporting.

Don't get in the habit, lolol

This might be the first time since winter that I stay up for model runs!

Enjoy the next couple of days. Looks like a awful week next week

Man, close the shades after Saturday

0.74 on the day. New grass rejoices

0.28" today. mostly overnight and a.m.

52 already, gonna be a cold one

I mean... A weather geek getting married during a Nor' Easter? Is that really such a bad thing? lol. Congrats.

.47” here. It helps for sure. Hopefully it’s the appetizer to a more meaty entree Sunday.

A 10.4 ft high tide is being forecasted for Ft. Pulaski for late Friday morning: That would be tied for the 7th highest tide on record there going back ~90 years, tied with the 8/11/1940 hurricane. It would be only barely lower than the highest tide on record there not associated with a TC, which is the 10.45’ of 11/7/2021! This is the longest coastal flooding discussion I can ever recall being released by KCHS:TIDES/COASTAL FLOODINGTHE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR COASTAL CHARLESTON AND COLLETON COUNTIES, ALONG WITH TIDAL BERKELEY COUNTY AS THEIR IMPACTS ARE TIED TO THE CHARLESTON HARBOR TIDE GAGE, FOR THE REMAINDER OF OUR SOUTHEAST COAST PLEASE SEE THE NEXT DISCUSSION. MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING AS KING TIDES CONTINUE, WITH ASTRO TIDES OF 7.06 FT MLLW, WHICH BY ITSELF IS ALREADY ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE, TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1 FOOT ARE EXPECTED WHICH WILL BRING THE TIDE FORECAST OVER 8 FEET MLLW, WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST AT 8.1 FT MLLW. AT THESE LEVELS, WIDESPREAD AND HIGHLY IMPACTFUL COASTAL FLOODING OCCURS IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WITH NUMEROUS ROADS FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE AND WATER ENTERING SOME STRUCTURES. IMPACTS ALSO INCLUDE EROSION AT AREA BEACHES, WITH LIMITED TO NO ACCESS TO DOCKS, PIERS, AND SOME ISLANDS. MAJOR FLOOD STAGE AT THE CHARLESTON HARBOR RESULTS IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IN TIDAL BERKELEY COUNTY. WHILE MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS AGAIN EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY EVENING AS DEPARTURES RISE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP, WE ARE MOST CONCERNED FOR LATE FRIDAY MORNING'S HIGH TIDE AS STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE AND ASTRO TIDE FALLING TO JUST BELOW 7 FT MLLW, WHICH MAY AGAIN RESULT IN MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING. THIS IS WHEN THE HIGHEST TIDE IS EXPECTED AS DEPARTURES RISE TO NEAR 1.5 FT, WHICH SHOULD BRING THE TIDE GAGE UP TO NEAR 8.5 FT MLLW. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN MAJOR FLOOD STAGE BEING REACHED, MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND DIRECTION AND WIND SPEED AROUND HIGH TIDE WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE JUST HOW HIGH ABOVE 8 FEET WE GO, WITH NORTHEAST WINDS RESULTING IN HIGHER READINGS ABOVE 8.5 FT MLLW AND MORE NORTHERLY WINDS KEEPING US CLOSER TO 8.0 FT MLLW. IF WE WERE TO REACH 8.5 FT MLLW, MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN TIDAL BERKELEY COUNTY. FOR LATE FRIDAY EVENING THE ASTRO TIDE DROPS TO 5.6 FT MLLW RESULTING MINOR/MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED, WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS ASTRO TIDE PEAKS NEAR 6.72 FT MLLW, THOUGH WE'LL NEED TO SEE HOW THE TIDAL DEPARTURES END UP TRENDING AS THE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTH. DUE TO THE RISK OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING, A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL CHARLESTON AND COLLETON COUNTIES, VALID FROM 8 AM THURSDAY THROUGH 3 PM FRIDAY.AT FORT PULASKI, WHICH IMPACTS AREAS FROM BEAUFORT COUNTY IN SOUTH CAROLINA DOWN TO MCINTOSH COUNTY IN GEORGIA, LATE THURSDAY MORNING'S ASTRONOMICAL TIDE OF 9.1 FT MLLW COMBINED WITH TIDAL DEPARTURES OF JUST UNDER A FOOT WILL BRING THE AREA RIGHT TO MODERATE FLOOD STAGE, WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST CRESTING AT 10 FT MLLW (MODERATE FLOOD STAGE). AT THESE LEVELS, HIGHWAY-80 CONNECTING TO TYBEE ISLAND STARTS TO SEE WATER ON IT AND NUMEROUS ROADS BECOME IMPASSABLE SUCH AS SHIPYARD ROAD, ISOLATING RESIDENTS ON BURNSIDE ISLAND.FLOODING WILL ALSO IMPACT AREAS ON TYBEE ISLAND, WILMINGTON ISLAND, THE COFFEE BLUFF COMMUNITY, OSSABAW ISLAND, SAPELO ISLAND, PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 17 SOUTH OF DARIEN. IN BRYAN COUNTY, WATER COULD BREACH DOCKS NEAR FT MCALLISTER AND FLOODING IMPACTING PORTIONS OF MILL HILL ROAD. IN LIBERTY COUNTY, FLOODING IMPACTS THE HALFMOON LANDING AREA AND CATTLE HAMMOCK ROAD NEAR BERMUDA BLUFF SUBDIVISION. WE WILL LIKELY SEE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LATE THURSDAY EVENING AS ASTRO TIDE PEAKS AT 7.74 FT MLLW, WITH TIDAL DEPARTURES RISING THROUGHOUT THE DAY CLOSE TO 2 FT. SIMILAR TO CHARLESTON, THE TIDE OF GREATEST CONCERN OCCURS LATE FRIDAY MORNING, AS THE ASTRO TIDE IS AT 8.91 FT MLLW AND WITH THE CONTINUED STRONG GRADIENT WINDS ELEVATED TIDAL DEPARTURES IS EXPECTED. CURRENT FORECAST PEAKS AT 10.4 FT MLLW, BUT AS DISCUSSED ABOVE, THE EXACT WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED IS GOING TO PLAY A BIG ROLE IN HOW HIGH ABOVE 10 FT MLLW THE TIDE GAGE WILL GO. IF THE WIND DIRECTION WERE TO SHIFT CLOSER TO NORTHERLY, TIDAL READINGS CLOSER TO 10 FT MLLW WOULD BE EXPECTED, WHEREAS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED RESULTING IN THE FORECAST OF 10.4 FT MLLW. AS THE TIDAL READINGS APPROACH 10.5 FT MLLW, COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS EXPAND ALONG THE ENTIRE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST. WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK FROM COASTAL FLOODING LATE FRIDAY EVENING AS THE ASTRO TIDES FALLS TO 7.41 FT MLLW, THOUGH THERE IS A RISK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, WILL NEED TO SEE HOW THE TIDAL DEPARTURES TREND AS THE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTH.

I honestly think a lot of it is just built into modeling based on ENSO. I was reading the discussion of the 2024-25 winter forecast from NOAA and it's essentially all based on La Nina that they had forecast to begin in winter, and defaulted to what they would say was typical La Nina 500mb patterns which was AN across most of the East. But they admit during the discussion that weaker ENSO events have far less predictability, and that the forecast models incorporate the much more stable strong ENSO results at times and interpret them in a broadbrush fashion. As always, they said the main drivers last winter, PNA/AO/NAO/MJO were simply not able to be forecast more than 3 weeks in advance.

If it holds together, a band of light to moderate rain with embedded heavy showers will arrive here in about an hour and last ~an hour.

IMO, if we can make it inside HR90 and this thing has de-amplified, then this is legit. That's my go/no go threshold.

Oh, we know what it's afraid of.

No it got slightly wetter

So... Rainfall for us was .49".

We watch!

A shot of much cooler air is moving into the region. Central Park will likely see its first lows in the 40s this season either tomorrow morning or Friday morning. Temperatures will moderate during the weekend. A potential nor'easter will need to be watched for late in the weekend to early next week. This storm could bring some periods of rain and gusty winds to parts of the region, with the highest rainfall amounts and strongest gusts likely for the Jersey Shore and parts of Long Island. Coastal flooding is possible. In the 18 past years where Central Park saw at least two 80° or above highs and Newark saw at least two 84° or above highs during the first week of October, the temperature returned to 70° or above on at least one day during the second half of October in 17 (94.4%) of those cases. For all other cases, 84.1% saw at least one such high temperature during the second half of October. Therefore, the sharp cool spell very likely won't mean that New York City has seen its last 70° or above high temperature. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around October 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. La Niña conditions will likely develop during mid- or late-autumn. The SOI was +4.38 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.649 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 61% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 59.1° (1.2° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

I mean, we've been stuck in this pattern of things being suppressed south this time last year through winter. Same thing so far late summer/autumn. Patterns don't like breaking.

Does anyone have the regular 18z EURO? Was that a severe change from 12z as well?

Haven't been paying too much attention but it seems like the euro really caved to the GFS here?

What trend? Stop trolling already. Its not even winter