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JFM looks around normal precip for most of SNE....precip is probably the most inaccurate aspect of seasonals, anyway, which remain relatively inaccurate in general. Seems like there maybe some late developing Miller B events that are going to pop in the N stream.

49° quite a change.

Yep. It did get cooler for Dec-Mar in the northeast since the last update, but boy does it have a strong dry signal from November-March in the east, with the lone exception of eastern New England for March like you said. That dry signal increased since the last update

Low of 57. A splendid few days on tap.

Several stations came within a few degrees of their warmest high for the last week of September. Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2017-09-30 89 0 2 2014-09-30 88 0 - 2007-09-30 88 0 3 2025-09-30 87 0 4 2010-09-30 85 0 5 2018-09-30 82 0 - 2011-09-30 82 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2017-09-30 92 0 - 1959-09-30 92 0 - 1881-09-30 92 0 2 1998-09-30 91 0 - 1970-09-30 91 0 3 2010-09-30 90 0 - 2007-09-30 90 0 - 1968-09-30 90 0 - 1958-09-30 90 0 - 1895-09-30 90 0 4 2025-09-30 89 0 - 1986-09-30 89 0 - 1945-09-30 89 0 - 1933-09-30 89 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2017-09-30 89 0 2 2010-09-30 87 0 3 1998-09-30 86 0 4 2025-09-30 85 0 - 1970-09-30 85 0 5 2009-09-30 83 0 - 1972-09-30 83 0

Final September mean temperature in New York City: 70.6° September 2025 had the second smallest standard deviation in temperatures for any September. Lowest Standard Deviations: 1. 1968 3.43° 2. 2025 3.63° 3. 1870 3.81° 4. 2024 3.94° 5. 1908 4.08° Standard Deviations in the New York City Area: Bridgeport: 3.60° (old record: 3.72°, 2024) Islip: 4.11° (3rd lowest) New York City-Central Park: 3.63° (2nd lowest) New York City-JFK Airport: 3.64° (2nd lowest) New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 3.82° (2nd lowest) Newark: 4.19° (3rd lowest) White Plains: 4.02° (old record: 4.28°, 1968)

October's Cansip run looks a lot like September's fwiw. Cooler up north of MD/PA line but on the dry side, except for March in ENE. 5H starts here: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025100100&fh=5

Fwiw, Cansips updated October forecast for D-F looks a lot like last month's of around normal to slightly above as you head south. Temps https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=eus&pkg=T2maMean_month&runtime=2025100100&fh=4 H5 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=namer&pkg=z500aMean_month&runtime=2025100100&fh=4

This drought situation is actually worse than last year at this time. We have been completely devoid of widespread heavy rains in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic since late July. October looks dry as far as the eye can see

That will also be our next chance of rain it appears. As modeled its a pretty impressive digging trough with associated shortwave energy. In the days prior to that we will probably have some of the dreaded October warmth with dewpoints creeping up as high pressure shifts into the western Atlantic.

Not that I’ve seen yet. I’ll let you know. The only thing he’s really commented on is that he doesn’t believe the “warm blob” is going to last into the winter and thinks a classic ‘cold horseshoe’ -PDO alignment is going to develop

Up to 90mph at latest advisory

Imelda has become significantly better defined overnight with a large eye and more cohesive convection. Strengthens appears imminent.

Oops.. 1 hour late DCA: +3.2 NYC: +3.5 BOS: +3.5 ORD: +5.7 ATL: +2.9 IAH: +2.5 DEN: +0.5 PHX: +0.2 SEA: 0.0

Pretty breezy out there tonight! Sadly any rain or appreciable moisture will have to wait a while longer.

83 7th straight day of 80 and above

Easy and Fox are the most 1950s names ever, lol

It's out to sea and the Euro was wrong.

No, I just like hurricanes.

2007 wasn't a heatwave, but it was a pretty warm run for early October. Just missed 6 (arguably 7) consecutive 80° days. Very warm nights too. This is from Central Park: Day Max Min Rain 2007 10 01 69 59 0 2007 10 02 75 58 0 2007 10 03 78 65 0.03 2007 10 04 84 69 0 2007 10 05 83 67 0 2007 10 06 83 66 0 2007 10 07 82 67 0 2007 10 08 87 67 0 2007 10 09 79 60 0.52

September 30 max here was 77° (76.6°). Unusual spread with temps south of the LIE (must have been the wind off the sound). ISP is less than 10 miles southeast of here. The most recent temperatures in the 80s were on 9/26 and 9/28 (both 83°) September rainfall here was 3.23" Warmest for the month was 84° on the 9/6 and again on the 9/19. September temperatures on the whole were similar to the last 2 weeks of August Coolest was 49° on September 22.

With a few mins left in Sep, its certain that my lowest low for the month will be higher than my Aug low! Insane. I'm also set to have a warmer 3-day stretch this weekend than any 3 this month too, but likely just tie the highest Sep reading. No clouds to be found for the 2nd day here, impressive for this time of year and region.

Watch this be another October where we alternate between 80 degree torches and fall weather.

In the ENSO thread they're saying that the warm blobs are in the wrong places for us.

In a spiritual kinda way, I feel like hurricanes are acting proportional to how our pattern has been the last few years...downsloping, nw flow, ots...not all the time, but that seems like the base state, even more so than usual. We're due for a nor'easter pattern.