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I think it had been so long since our whole collective group had tracked a storm, we forgot the cardinal rules of tracking a storm in the south. Funny thing is it wasn’t just us. NWS, Local TV Mets, Weather Channel were all honking the horn on Monday. Heck the Weather Channel showed graphics all day Tuesday of 12-24” across NC.

Okay... for the first time I'm impressed by the model solutions overnight. 1 to 1.5' (that's feet) of snow "precipitating" out of a modeling consensus that frankly ... could be underdone considering the feeding circumstances into this whole thing. This is running up underneath an impressive if not historically cold air mass intrusion currently just entering the NP ... continues to load into everywhere N of roughly Enid Oklahoma to Va Beach - obviously colder N within that immense region. Meanwhile, a starkly opposing air mass is bulging back N from southern TX across the Gulf inteface with the continent down there. As an aside, this really looks like a battle between well established and sufficiently time laged MJO Phase 6 modulation, correlated temperature/moisture bias, which is rich in the OV/TN region, where incongruously ...we find mammoth cold invasion setting up. Thus, an immense conflict at both larger teleconnection scaled correlations, as well as what is physically being actually observed. And here I've been focused on the 29-02 dates ( and still am interested in that range, btw ). I kind of missed this I think. If I'm being totally honest. I see this now as a planetary. What I mean by that, it is rooted in all these super structures ... modulations that have come into larger scaled conflict set to take place. This is a WHOPPER of a correction event. Ginormous opposing planetary signals set to resolve their differences, impacting half the country to do it. About the only con to this happening as such at this point ... we have to keep in mind that everything described/analyzed above is based upon the virtual plot/movie history of the guidance. They could be telling the wrong story... I see that as less likely - shy of moderating impacts in areas and back yards, the whole of thing in manifested out of these root observations about the state of the larger environment. That's a clue to deterministic comfort when that is the case. Something has to correct this mess, we have model solutions capable of doing it. There's not much else we can do.

28F thru storm in NYC. Much warmer than this storm. Much

Yeah not worried about mixing unless we slot and it gets to 34 with snizzle. Big deal.

NBC lol

And if that happens we probably dont dryslot and the whole area stays all snow like you said

F*** waiting. Temu's hot air balloon includes a handmade basket and torch, for only $49.99.

I don't wish this forecast on anyone. We could get 3'' or we could get 9''. The biggest dilemma is trying to nail down PL vs ZR. That is where i'm conflicted. Gun to head I think your area sees 3-6" followed by a prolonged period of PL and then finishing it with a ZR topper.

Looking back at the thread it’s comical how naive and stupid we all sounded. Did we really believe a near 1,000 mile long stretch of overrunning was possible? Even more hilarious, every single one of us took the bait on the 1050+ HP.

If these NWS offices would just forecast snow, we would get it. Thats how it works right?

@yoda something in your settings says you can't receive PMs - hoping to see you (and anyone else here) at Succotash DC sometime between 5-7pm! I'll be in a pink button-down. If anyone wants to join and wants my cell #, message me.

EPS mean 850 MB

1000% agree... I mentioned yesterday how negativity seems to overwhelm even when a good old fashioned storm develops!

if the low transfers to the coast that far south we will have all snow IMO

I'm amazed by how cold it looks for days and days after this event! Imagine if something pops up in medium range next week like a strong clipper. Or if we get one of those deals where a big system forms as the cold pattern starts to relax.

Tulsa upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings! 6-12 inches north of I40. Blowing and drifting snow possible.

lol - rage bait. Yeah, I had to do a double take at the timeframe. I really do think though it’s because they don’t want to put out a map that extends more than 72 hours out.

Also less QPF. Might save us here in Raleigh

Hrrr at max

Gonna put my flag in the sand on something though: moisture is always ahead of schedule. My thoughts are that we get a front end thump earlier on Saturday that gives us 1-2”.

This is the way..

I have rated this storm a 2 baked good storm. Gluten Free shortbread lemon bars and some classic chocolate chip cookies, GF of course. Getting the ingredients this morning. Will need the power ups as we have lost our child labor for clearing snow.

Man, it's gonna be fun to get into meso range with this one.