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I think he is fairly close to Erie PA.

30 F recovery here so far... 48 to 78 It's only 9:30

We are so overdue for a legit, snowy and cold winter from start to finish. Bring it on. Kill the drought on Miller A at a time.

gone. ugh

But its not apples for apples. The sensible weather will not follow the same exact script. For instance, both 2015-16 & 2023-25 had more severe cold shots than 1997-98. Indeed 1997-98 was a very murky, gray winter so the lows were insane warm even during the colder stretches. Also, 1990s winters here were warmer than both 2000s and 2010s winters. Same at Buffalo (assuming thats near you).

Good news here. Not surprisingly, the “exceptional” that covered most of SE GA has improved one level to “extreme”. Reason to celebrate as it’s “only” extreme now.

Should see some rain fri into sat, hoping for an overperformer

AIT

Right, which was my exact point, it was sarcasm..

Already 68° off of a min of 51.8°. Pawpaws and catalpas are waking up.

Hopefully we can bring small pox back so kids don’t have to worry about that evil pollen.

Significant improvements on this weeks drought monitor for pretty much everywhere in region besides northern piedmont of NC. Some areas have gone all the way to just the “abnormally dry” category and much of SC and eastern NC is now only in “moderate” category. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?Southeast

The issue I do have with 97-98 is a lot of these wintery stretches were so marginal with 30-35 degree days. Factor in 2-3 decades of warming and you get the idea.

Yeah I don’t expect a wall to wall pac jet extension the entire season, otherwise LAX might end up underwater. Looking at 97-98 here, there were a couple of 5-7 day wintery stretches in december, january maybe 1 week tops, and a couple more stretches in Feb and a couple more in March. Jan was the least snowiest at 9.5” while December had close to 30”. Feb/March 15-20” each. Below normal season but obviously not 0 or even top 10 lowest.

1991 is the only one of the high-end el nino events that really compares. There was a heat wave at the end of May, and that really set the tone for the entire summer. 2015, to a lesser extent, but we didn't have the warmth in June, but rather in the back half of the summer into September. Both of those years had a borderline warm neutral/weak el nino leading up to it. We didn't have that in the lead up to this year. I expected this summer to be a textbook pre-nino summer that was cooler than recent summers, like 1972, 1982, 1986, 1997, 2009, and 2023. If we can't get even get a cool summer in this setting, I wonder what it will take to get one. (Short of a major volcanic eruption, like Pinatubo in 1991, which caused 1992 to be notably colder, I probably don't see it happening any time soon, if not ever.)

Yeah I am just not ready for almost 100F On Sunday.

Low of 53 as we start to warm up a bit today but still gorgeous weather.

IMO, this one is a lock for a top 3 super El Niño event, possibly even surpassing the last 4 super events. I also agree with Paul Roundy and Ben Noll that it stays east-based like 1997, but like you said, the east-based structure may not end up being important

Yup

man, the mugwort is getting bad. So hard to get rid of, but thankfully it's in a lawn expansion project that I did several years ago, but don't care much about, but still, stuff is a bitch to get rid of without nuking it.

oh..heh... just realized no one's in here. Geez, better go make sure the Iran-Russian-China axis didn't smuggle a nuke up the Potomac

I wonder if these low wind open sky lasing days over the nearby ocean will elevate the SSTs some

Heh...it's rare to do this once with near/at 0% coverage, but this is the 2nd day, back-to-back, that sat presented this at a regional scale