All Activity

5pm happy hour

Getting into the more intense LES now, the bands are intensifying over much of SON with it jutting all the way to K-W and Guelph commonly. I got 3" overnight as expected, melted some on the roads and compacted which was more than I thought. The bands aren't stable enough to give anyone a huge amt. I see more down to my SW.

What’s the scientifical reasoning for the 18z gfs to always be more drunk than the other runs. Can always count on it for feet of snow somewhere.

36 right now. Warming up with a fire. Weather app says some snow happens around 7:30. I ain’t buying that but it’d be nice.

We can always go higher

GFS looks good.

Another interior hit 12/6-7. Lfg

Yanked some stats for Kankakee County because they have done especially incredible compared to climo this November. While I don’t live there, I can geek out about random stats. Now, consider that this data comes from COOP reports. It’s justified to question some data especially as we reach further back. But it’s what we’ve got. Pulled 1925-2025 from reporting locations nearest to Kankakee. Top 5 Snowfall: Month of November Some locations in Eastern Kankakee County have already notched 2025 as #1 or will soon do so. The rest of the county will likely place at #2, with real possibility of taking #1 if things break right. 1951 - 12.3” 1959 - 9.8” 1932 - 7.2” 1950 - 7.0” 2017 - 6.3” Gamma distribution would suggest roughly along the following periods for each breaking point in total November snowfall: 8” - 1 in 35 years 12” - 1 in 75 years 16” - 1 in 150 years 20” - 1 in 300+ years Needless to say, the upcoming snowstorm will likely push the county into historic+ proportions for the month of November. Especially the eastern portions of the county where the highest breaking points are achievable. Top 5 Snowstorms: Month of November Here again areas in eastern parts of the county already notched a likely #1. The rest of the county can put these on watch to surpass. November 6-7, 1951 - 9.0” November 12-14, 1959 - 8.0” November 15-16, 1932 - 7.2” November 29, 1942 - 6.0” November 21-22, 2015 - 6.3” Finally, it looks nearly certain that the county will grab two 4”+ events in the month of November, which hasn’t ever happened from what I grabbed. Soliloquy over. Carry on.

43.7 for a high which is lowest of season

Didn't see this thread until almost a year later, but I gave you a follow.

Some flurries floating around. 35°.

I look forward to the 5 page Jspin novel of the crystalline structure of the snowflakes along with the conditions at each 100’ of vertical at Smuggs. Nothing better.

I couldn’t resist . It was either that or post something about how that run is suppressed. I’ll go back to watching from a distance and come back on Sunday when it starts to unravel again.

I like to wait until I’m shoveling before I do my snow dance Happy Thanksgiving!

I wouldn’t read too much into the 6th because I’ve noticed that the gfs (and other models) sometimes “copy” what the preceding system did before its details are even fully resolved.

Light snow most of the day but DAB-. Roads are clear. Still a festive-looking day that felt more like Christmas than Thanksgiving.

Gfs pretty much a Corbin copy for the 6th storm as the 18z result for Tuesday. Bleh

This. Just a pixel in a tapestry, this far out only looking at trends toward a consensus, if one even ever emerges before Monday lol

still a long way to go with this - flip flopping at this range is not unusual and 18Z runs are not as reliable as 0Z and 12Z some data could be missing that was included in 12Z who knows !

I know how this ends, Somewhere in Stowe village someone is sitting back smiling in a reindeer sweater.

What time does the 18z run now?

Meh, need more amp than that.

I'd rather have the Euro on our side at this range.