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I do that sometimes but it seems more difficult to do with 10+ posts.

My mind was on streaks sorry lol Mattingly had a big HR streak in 1987. I was wondering what Jordan's streak was....

If you couldnt figure out i meant 23 you need more help than i thought

Strangely the GFS has a second storm forming in the central Caribbean, so the GFS and Euro end up with a similar look at 348 hrs. Edit: The first storm on the GFS bombs out over PR in like 40kts of shear. Maybe it has a valid reason for doing this, but its a tough solution to believe at this point.

Yeah I’m not surprised there’s some light flakeage up there. I’m just saying radar images with ptype algorithms based on surface temps don’t prove anything.

ask and you shall receive https://soundcloud.com/itsbri-369369283/sickbragbro

Why? I thought that was what we all lived for.

Hit the + next to quote you can multiquote in one post

The ECM AI models give my area .30" - .40" 4 - 8 Sunday evening. The ECM deterministic is way over-hyped according to the WPC at .90".

Euro is much more interesting Sunday/Monday for rain and some windy showers. Pretty consistent about a bit more than just a quick passing front with some showers. Hope it is correct.

That must be it, I guess it pulled arctic air down out of Russia and cooled the surface temps on the Russian coast.

A 5F temp drop followed by a change in the winds from SW to W? I'm tracking it...stay vigilant.

Mentioned it earlier, but I’ve noticed a common denominator among all the -NAO’s during the winter that kept “linking up” with the SE ridge/WAR….a New Foundland warm pool

During a chronologically challenged AM you do make a welcome night light. Stay well Liberty. As always ….

Re: Delos - Well except for one thing - Delos demise wasn't because of sea level rise - it was because it was destroyed by attacks and looting, and also due to much of the island sinking due to tectonic plate movement, which is *much* faster (~2.5cm per year) than the sea level rise (~2.8mm per year). Delos is right on the Hellenic Arc - the main border of the African and Eurasian plates, where there is significant subduction happening. You might want to check facts like that before you post things like you did. While I think ChescoWx is wrong with much of his positions here - he's right about the climate change scare being discredited by playing loose with facts and principles in scaremongering. He's right about the terminology you've been using in your post. You present as if there is some sort existential crisis happening, when there very much isn't. Yes it's a slow motion problem - but it's a *lot* slower than you present. In general societal infrastructure - houses, businesses, roads, etc. - are re-built due to simply aging out *much* faster than they will be threatened by rising sea levels; every century or so for most things. So the solution is simply - when something gets torn down and rebuilt, due to being very old (say 100 years or 200 years) - simply build the replacement a bit higher - either inland or by literally adding new land (it's quite easy actually - e.g. ask the Emirates, Dutch, Bostonians, Manhattanites, etc.). Yes there may be some additional expense (beyond the normal expense of rebuild). But IMO it will be *far* less expensive than trying to actually prevent sea level rise; especially since such prevention is most likely futile.

The GFS has a piece of energy in the sw Caribbean that competes with the energy coming in from the east. That also causes it to stop much earlier and end up much farther northeast. The Euro, on the other hand, has the main wave remaining the dominant energy, and also has stronger ridging to the north, which keeps the system moving westward.

That’s just radar algorithms…not ground truth. Cranky should know that.

Fwiw due to it being way out in fantasyland, the 12Z Euro has Mitch-like/Eta-like/Iota-like flooding in N Honduras as it stalls just to the N of Honduras for a few days and intensifies followed by E and then ENE/NE movement to W of Jamaica headed toward C Cuba at the end as a trough picks it up.

https://x.com/weatherwilly/status/1978632840305631546?s=19 Winter outlook

https://x.com/weatherwilly/status/1978632840305631546?s=19 Cold Winter outlook

Thing is, and who knows how much, if any, it matters, but we are likely not going to see an official Niña (5 consecutive tri-monthlies Enso 3.4 average temps at or below -.5C) this winter if consensus modeling is correct. Not that the RONI won't be in Niña territory as well as Chuck's favorite subsurface readings, but it is something that "might" make a difference. In fact, Enso 3.4 temps are struggling to even maintain a -.5C reading over the past month+. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for I'll repeat...who knows.

There's one day that's listed with a high of 72° (10/2) that actually had a high of 66°. I'm not sure how the 72° got into the climate record. Every other NYC area location ((BDR: 63, ISP: 67, LGA: 66, NYC: 66, EWR:68, HPN: 64)) + the hourly data shows < 70° for 10/2. During late September/early October, there were recurring issues at the JFK station.

We've got 2 weeks left of October. I wouldn't count any of those things out until we're closer to the end of the month.