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Also useful to point out that the bulging into Manitoba is really critical there. That axial location near Frisco is traditionally too far west, but the idiosyncrasy of that arm rotating S on the heals of the 'Lakes trough is completely the wave couplet ...which transitively is favorable for maintaining amplitude that far E of the "real" ridge axis. Synoptic interpretation is a lot harder than folks realize. Just seeing where ridges and troughs are isn't the half of it.

Selfishly, I'm more interested in the one closest in time currently. There looks to be a lot of energy with that system and a decent shot to overperform for someone from the east TN/southern apps part of our region. What catches my eye about this one is the GFS (normally our progressive model) is the one that closes off at 500, slowing the flow and popping a lee side low, while the Euro briefly closes off in the Ohio Valley, but quickly opens back up and scoots harmlessly out to sea. The initial system aside, I think the follower has the potential to be a big system. If you cycle through 500, the piece of energy around day 6 as shown on the 12z GFS comes in much further west through western Montana. Interestingly, even though at the surface it was a smoke show for the entire midsouth, it could have been even bigger if the piece from the four corners had gotten out in front of the energy diving south through the Dakotas (shown above) allowing for a phase. It's this piece in the four corners that detaches from the flow that @Carvers Gap notes as something to watch around the 20-21st. The Euro is much different in the evolution regarding the follower. Lots will change in the next couple of days, but even the Euro while saying no shows quite a bit of "potential".

Hopefully the Euro is wrong,its still showing the MJO in the WP and with some strong blocking into Siberia but its shows a Asian winter time monsoonal flow,rhis would be a waste with the blocking into Siberia it shows in our parts

It might be better to have this thread as a period of interest between the 15th and the 18th

Currently: Light rain. 34.5°

?? Whats the 26th?

7/3/66 takes (bakes?) the cake. The coil thermometer at the end of the counter, 10-12 feet from the grill, reached about 140 - scale only reached 120 and the needle was well beyond that line. I'm better off NOT knowing how hot it next to the grill.

the +PNA ridge in and of itself argues for a coastal... that's 2.5 sigma over ID, nearly ideal

the 26th? lol um yeah book mark this watch it be like 50 and sunny lol.

1.15" so far. A soaker.

More than slightly. 40s for you are +10 for a high. But certainly well below January thaw levels which when I conjure in my mind I think 55+

Typical lol

Def escaped torch everywhere in the northeast . Just a week of slightly AN

So, maybe an "anchor" makes more sense, as it keeps the bottom of the trough from "getting away" and tilting negative. Can we throw another complete misnomer onto the pile?

Posts on ne.weather?

The conversation is manageable now in the main thread, but I think we actually should start a storm thread tomorrow if it still looks like a viable threat between the 15th and 19th. This would separate the discussion into what might be happening in the short term and then also in the post January 20 period which is interesting in itself

its winter; there is always a slight risk of heavy snow.

.7" already. good event. 44F and chicken soup in the stock pot.

Don’t matter when the high or low occurs, still goes in the books for the day.

Wiz must be in heaven . Bruins with two hat tricks. First time since 1964.

I mean really just minor adjustments to these H5 maps and its a Big Dog.

Not yet

The 12z EURO, although didnt get it done, did trend towards the GFS. Will this continue at 18z/0z? We will soon see.

i think you and i might make the cut at least lmao

The box just shifted east from the old map