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Sleet bombs can be fun. Especially with an arctic outbreak following it. Literal glacier situation.

It wasn't JB and I should have mentioned they only said it was a possibility not definite - I think 15:1 is reasonable considering this air mass coming in from the north is quite unusually cold for this area during a snow event.

Yeah in general that’s it. Technically in this scenario they are actually both slowing down and phasing later timing wise, but further west nonetheless. I think if we are going to have a phase, a quicker one is the better of the two evils cause at least the TPV and HP won’t be retreating by then.

Good catch that was meant to be a 20 (2/12/2012) I will update

Yes we greatly appreciate you being here Michelle. Thank you.

GDPS Para smokes the entire 95 corridor. Pretty much best case scenario. Probably 16-18” using 10-12:1

I could see this being one of those where the local mets go 4-8. Then up it to 6-10. Then up it again to 10-14. I used to love watching Bob Ryan constantly upping the totals. Always made me chuckle. He was the original DC snow weenie.

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20:1 is tough here outside of maybe a clipper in a very cold setup. Coastal lows usually its either too warm or too windy for ratios that good. PD2 is a case though where I think ratios may have been close to that and 2016

I really hope that does not pan out for the SE. That could be devestation.

No way in hell at this point to determine where best snow growth will be, banding and lift etc. We're still trying to figure out the synoptic situation much less pull apart soundings 120 hours out. Surface temperatures alone do not determine ratios. A gusty wind can reduce ratios. Not to mention how much against climo 20:1 would be for the metro. JB is a great one for pushing 20:1 / 30:1 ratios and I can't think of ONCE when he was right on that during a moderate or major storm.

Having done forecasts there for years the wedge often times tends to be deeper in NE Ga so they end up more sleety in this storms. I think if this trends more to FZRA they'd probably see much less precip and just get like 0.25 FZRA and that is all. There is a narrow setup for them to see monster ice totals there. The wedge tends to save them or the system just usually cuts more north and they are drier.

Found NOAA's sounding page. Notice the difference in temps from what was on the Wyoming site. Strange. Yet this mornings sounding looks good. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/

Crippling ice storm. Gas stations will be closed for days as well. Trees and power lines down. Hard pass.

The 2 in Feb 2012 has to be a mistake. I don't ever remember it getting anywhere near that cold at any point during that winter.

Damn.

No power Flo

Thank you Steve, I appreciate you I’ll admit it’s really tough without him. We made the best team

Even 1/4-1/2 of those totals is disastrous.

Ah, understood

Yes, this should be interesting!

And it was quick hitter in much of MA/RI. I got about 15" in 8 hr in Woburn Snow began not long after midnight and it was clearing out by 9am!

I mean it really is the only reasonable call living in this area. Never go big this far out...and for us 6 to 10 is MECS

@Ji are you following your rule and going with the least snowy model, ie the gfs? Or does that not apply with this system?