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GFS handling this really well, we saw the overnight models trend nicely to it.

Flurries!!!!

Yea, I def. see the rationale, but my issue with this is that, as you intimated, it's based solely on ENSO...which you have opined is becoming less of a forcing mechanism, anyway, but beside the point. My concern with that kind of perfunctory (not meant in a derogatory-dickish way) is that it neglects the potential implications of the stratosphere, which is primed to have an influence this season given the extreme easterly QBO in concert with the high solar output and background cool ENSO. The implication of this, per my deep dive, is that we are especially prone to both episodic +TNH intervals born of stratospheric reflection events, which renders said polar field abandonment moot, and a subsequent major SSW that actually will result in a full reversal.

We are seeing some lake effect streamers making into as far southeast as Chester County this morning and don't be surprised if we see a couple more snow showers during the day. We have already reached our high temperature for the day at about 130 this morning. Today’s temperatures will remain below freezing in most spots with wind gusts as high as 35 mph. Our top 10 coldest start to December looks like it will continue for at least the next week, and we may see a couple of snow chances over the next few days. The first one overnight Friday night looks very light while the next potential event toward Sunday morning could bring some locations their “largest” snow event this season. Of course, that would not be hard to do as our largest "event" has only been 0.5" Behind whatever happens on Sunday another very cold air mass moves in on Sunday night and lasts through Tuesday with temperatures from Sunday through Tuesday remaining in the mid to upper 20's for highs with lows in the teens.

We are seeing some lake effect streamers making into as far southeast as Chester County this morning and don't be surprised if we see a couple more snow showers during the day. We have already reached our high temperature for the day at about 130 this morning. Today’s temperatures will remain below freezing in most spots with wind gusts as high as 35 mph. Our top 10 coldest start to December looks like it will continue for at least the next week, and we may see a couple of snow chances over the next few days. The first one overnight Friday night looks very light while the next potential event toward Sunday morning could bring some locations their “largest” snow event this season. Of course, that would not be hard to do as our largest "event" has only been 0.5" Behind whatever happens on Sunday another very cold air mass moves in on Sunday night and lasts through Tuesday with temperatures from Sunday through Tuesday remaining in the mid to upper 20's for highs with lows in the teens.

I have to admit I was fully expecting a ruler pic of 5+ inches on the board. In my opinion it underperformed for your location.

Got a few flurries coming down here in Burke right now. Yay!

Nobody has you confused. Take your trolling somewhere else. This is the only warning you get

3-4 new inches at 4650 on Beech and the flow snow is still hanging on. CamWest-00-083038-083044.mp4

I'm no euro hugger but even that mutes the ridge blob by xmas and doesn't have it as far east as the GFS. And AN temps are low 50s so thats fine.

My dad is so mad

Seems with each run it keeps slipping away.

Yea, wasted cold.

BTW I will not start a thread for Sunday morning. I'm saving up for the Wiggam storm to be

.7 here. With the warm up coming there's a chance that's it heading into next month lol

Yeah, we aren’t out of the game here completely yet. However, we are teetering on this being nothing more than a few flurries. Anything less than an across the board improvement at 12z, we’re cooked

Yes, that's true. Parts of the FL might wind up having a top 10 warmest December. And many records are being set out West.

Shitter has been full on here for a long time now. We need to flush it out and get a area wide big storm.

She loves you so much that she would do it on her own.

You'll probably be right ... seasonal prediction's not my thing. I'm just basing that on part hunch, part knowledge related to -ENSOs of this bandwidth. But I'm also of the mind that ENSO is often too heavily weighted in the game. NP-GL-NE are modulated by polar index modes; I just see this year as having polar field abandonment issues later on. That leaves the continent S of ~45N vulnerable to early warmth. I'm thinking along the lines of how big spring warmth has a correlation to preceding Ninas. Not really the type of correlation the average engagement in here might accidentally stumble upon, much less ever pursue LOL. So experimental -

They just canceled for today.

Temp peaked out at 40 around midnight but is now down to 29. Frigid day on tap.

Seems safe now that above normal temps are coming starting late next week and into Xmas week. But with lots of cold air in Canada, we certainly could have a cold couple days behind any cold fronts.

New thread jinx and the shitters full.

Qshmegma