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Yeah, we did get the stronger -WPO in February. But the Pacific Jet undercut it leading to the stronger Southeast ridge and Great Lakes storm track. Our last solid winter month from ACY to BOS was January 2022 which featured a -2.1 WPO and a +TNH. The +TNH last January had interference from the Pacific Jet. So the heights in the WPO region were much lower due to the Pacific Jet sending a stream of disturbances into the region lowering heights. So the WPO finished January +0.2. Getting a -WPO and +TNH during the same month been a challenge with the faster Pacific Jet. Would like to see if we could at least pull off that feat at least one month in the coming years potentially allowing more of benchmark track over that month like we saw briefly for January 2022. That month the Pacific Jet was able to back off with the great snows from ACY to ISP to BOS.

39 here this morning with a bit of a breeze. Coldest of the season.

The yellows are the best this year...This one seems to have disappeared after I posted it yesterday. The backyard.

We ran out of coffee this morning. Imagine my surprise at 5:30. Talk about spooky season. There will be a Costco run this evening to make sure this never happens again. Then stepping outside to a humid tropical feel was my true wake up this morning!

Gonna rain. Feels like a summer morning.

That was a once in 700 year track. So most times systems develop to our south exit ENE. If the system is too far OTS, then we won’t even get much moisture. Ideally, you want it far enough west of Bermuda so when it recurves the system in the Great Lakes taps some tropical moisture. Our main issue since September 2024 has been a lack of tropical moisture. Prior to this we had many tropical systems going into the Gulf or Southeast and weakening they tracked north. This is how we got so many deluges in recent years. But now we get these weaker Northern Stream disturbances which can’t pick up much moisture. Canada has been in drought also. So this drought which began in September 2024 has continued. It probably won’t end until someone in the area gets a 10.00” precipitation month followed by numerous above average precipitation months. This is how our past dry patterns have ended Even last winter we got normal precipitation in December and February with a dry January. So with the exception of last May near MPO, all our months have been either just average or below average precipitation which perpetuated the drought.

Cruel, cruel SE winds already warmed things up. We fell to 51 and I was so happy. Then that pesky southeast trade wind started up and warmed us to 65 already! Damn that subtropical high from Hell! It is like the damn Energizer Bunny. It just keeps going, and going, and going............

51F at 6:14 am 0.48” of rain .

32 this morning in Wolf. 26 on Mt. Mitchell. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk

Awt

36.6 this morning! .

Flaccid so far. Maybe it develops further east.

0.18" Pretty much what latest guidance was advertising for here

Im impressed that its 68F at 430 am on 10/20…but I havent had coffee yet hahaha

Wow getting crushed

After a weak to very weak start to the SPV for the last 2 months, it looks like the long range forecasts for strengthening starting in November are going to verify

Entertainment only but the 00z gfs bringing the upslope snow. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Some heavier stuff with this line.,.. gained some strength.

Florida State is making Penn State look like the paragon of financial prudence. Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Congrats on the rain!

Yeah I have an ob of sorts. This is hard to believe, but it is ONLY 57 55 degrees, with a dewpoint of 43 degrees. The wind is light out of the north If only I had some steady light to moderate rain to go with this delightful 55/42 coolness, I'd be so damn overly happy I'd run up and down Cabela's Blvd in Buda at 3am stark frackin' naked. HOWEVER tomorrow, BACK up to 94 degrees. This subtropical high just won't give up. Its the Summer With No End. I think there is no such thing, as a Pattern Change. Not this low sun season and not in Texas.

I really haven’t seen any reputable sources say very snowy to the point where you wish we skip winter. I think the most reasonable outlook I’ve seen the most from people that aren’t fishing for clicks and trying to spread hype is that below normal temperature stretches are definitely on the table but that the most likely outcome during those stretches would be cold and dry. Seems like our chances of getting any significant snow events is fairly unlikely as the ingredients would have to come together in a way that’s not typical for the pattern we will have in place this winter. Another winter where we will likely need to nickel and dime our way during the cold stretches if we want to get close to average snowfall.

Some water coming to the drought zone. Likely overdone but a soaking rainfall en-route.

This is turning into a bit of an overperformer. Precip bands are almost out of the south right now.

There was an even crazier one 4-5 tiers high just north of Denver when I was driving into town this morning about 9:30. Couldn't take a picture though. Glad I was not in an airplane. First frost this morning, 32 degrees then it was 78 this afternoon. Typical October. The Front Range mountains are practically snow free after last week's warm rain.