All Activity

I'd be okay with something like December 2017, when the warm-up was very brief, and the majority of the 2nd half of December is cold. This is certainly possible. I mean, we're overdue for one.

Down to 31. Frosty outside on the deck.

You always post the same day 15+ ensembles that show a supposedly amazing pattern that never comes to fruition

Bet the over on that 25 years for some of us…

18z gfs would push the 62° on Thanksgiving too if they could pop some sun in that warm sector.

I haven't seen many lightning videos, but the rain and hail videos were something else.

We have had numerous model forecast attempts beyond 10 days to try and shift the storm tracks pattern since February 2022. But none have made to under 120 hrs on the models It’s still possible that something could eventually shift. But it won’t be believable until it shows up under 120 hrs.

BOS will prob get colder post-Tday on that weekend. Into the 20s I’d think.

Also I'm on my nightly 5 mile jaunt while the kiddo is swimming and it's misting out. Winds are calm but I'm figuring there has to be some low level moisture being pumped in from the coast Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Unless it’s playing the B1G. Hopefully we see a big midwestern OL steamroll that ridge in a couple of weeks.

I read it as the November lowest temperature has ranged from 17F (in two years) to -4F as the coldest.

Are you staying Friday or Saturday night there? I can see us back here with a few fluffy inches watching as some death band spitting out giant half inch dendies so hard you can't even hear the PA system Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

That map blizz had with the snow ripping up that way was for 18z Saturday Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Oh heck yeah, sign me up. If you could guarantee the storm holds off for travel but then dumps for the game, would be incredible.

It will turn milder tomorrow. Once in place, the generally milder than normal pattern will likely continue into the closing days of November. However, exceptional warmth appears unlikely. The closing days of November could turn cooler. Meanwhile, today will be Central Park's 1,391st consecutive day without daily snowfall of 4" or more. The record of 1,394 days was set during February 22, 1929 through December 16, 1932. That stretch ended with 6.7" daily snowfall on December 17, 1932. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around November 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.16°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +31.43 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.316 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 78% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.9° (1.1° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.8° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Some of you on here are so delusional its sad.

Cold air stalls out west on the 18z GFS and doesn’t make its way east. Huge difference in temperature across Kansas.

Yep, on the 18th NWS called for a 55 high here. Stuck in the upper 30's all day, high was 41.5 at midnight and then locked between 40-41 overnight until 7 am.

Well the -NAO locks in the cold and this has been the biggest issue with the Pacific Jet ripping across the country and a flat high south and southeast. I see more of the same from last year with hints here and there that it could possibly change but zero is locking in.

I’m no math guy, but isn’t the range the difference between the two numbers of 17 and -4? Or am I misunderstanding? Edit: Ahh..ok I was reading it wrong. Sorry.

Yep no evidence that this pattern since about feb 2022 will let up any time soon.

Hmmm....

Looking more like a reflective event at this point in time.

There hasn’t even been one 3+ day long Dec MJO phase 8 since 2017 and the one before that was way back in 2009! So, if the models are right with their 3++ day long phase 8, it would the first time in 8 years and only the 2nd time in 15 years! A whopping nearly 80% of 3+ day long Dec phase 8 periods averaged colder than normal at Raleigh though with lots of variation. When amplitude is <1.5, that rises even further to 85% along with an average of 5.0 F BN. If it’s a pretty strong amplitude (1.5+), it actually averaged only 0.5 F BN at Raleigh. At Baltimore, it’s pretty similar for Dec phase 8 with 4.8 F BN for amp <1.5 but only 0.3 F BN for amp >1.5. Fortunately, most Dec phase 8 are <1.5 amp.