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4.25” in ~6 hours here in Woodbury .

The last 3 years definitely haven’t done justice for what SNE should be like. ORH became like Boston, and Boston became like DC or Baltimore. And I’m left wondering if after 3 bad years, it’s a good time to move to the area (as opposed to moving right after a 2014-15). Because this lousy stretch can’t last forever.

Get me snow bro. Just a taste . Just the tip . Just give me something to latch onto . I’ll rip into a nip

I do miss Rev Kev getting the bus going

He takes a whiskey drink .. he takes a vodka drink.. he takes a lager drink.. he takes a cider drink .

Nov/Feb/Mar

GRR mentioned the warmth is progged to be shallow and near the ground. The main issue is stickage.

Have you emerged from the despair cocoon? Welcome back.

I’m up now . AJATT All Johnson All The Time

Sounds about right.

Normal temps is not a torch.

Will’s got me beat. I don’t think in two decades I’ve ever seen Will post from a state of anger or despair. Dendrite too. I do remember losing it in January 2014 though… more inches of rain than snow while Philly is under their 6th winter storm warning…and if I hear Leon Lett, I might have flashbacks.

Posting this here because the main thread is a dumpster fire. I’m going to be right on the mix line with tomorrow’s system in the foothills of Maine. Quick look at the NAM temp profiles and it seems more of a surface level issue than mid level warmth look so I’m leaning a slightly colder solution than modeled for my area. Tough forecast here.

The only question remains: can we get 4” of snow at NYC before then? If we see a shutout for this month given how cold this month has been, that’s a big yikes

Big troll

Yeah based on the last several.. any small changes upstream has larger impacts downstream

I actually believe it. You're tough to rankle. I think Ginxy might have got under your skin once but he's a master.

My assumption for winter was it primarily a blend of 2013-14 and 2024-25. The weighting will vary between the two by month, but December now looks pretty warm West (like 2024) and pretty cold East (like 2013). Will be curious on the exact splits, as that's likely the correct weighting going forward and the pattern should weaken and then change by month end. Southwest US warmest Novembers on record tend to follow the same pattern here. For New Mexico the warmth slowly diminishes in intensity after an early-mid Nov burst with warm to 75F or so, until you eventually arrive at a seasonal or cool month in the late winter-spring transition. Our warmest Novembers here are 2017, 1995, 1949, 2021, 1999, 2020, 1954, 2007, 2012, 1965. 17-18 was never really cold, but it did go from no rain/snow for 96 days and warm, to a wet/cooler period mid-Feb to mid-Mar. Similar for 1995-96, 2021-22, 1999-00, 2020-21. 1949-50 was cold in Dec, same for 1954-55. 07-08 was cold Dec-Jan. 2012-13 was cold Jan-Feb - 1965-66 too. Since we didn't get the cold Dec here, almost all other periods following a super warm Nov are either very cold Jan-Feb, or Feb-Mar...so Feb is the signal.

“Rain for the next hour”… Been snowing heavily since it started.

ah just saw the 18z euro, didn't realize it was mostly rain for the Cape. And 1/7/22 was also meh here.

Yep. He’s not wrong that a snowless December in La Niña bodes poorly for the rest of winter, but a lot can happen in 3 weeks.

LOL

I don’t agree. Yes, the deep -IOD is a warm signal but it has weakened significantly since earlier in the fall, and the other factors are more tilted towards cold than say 89-90. 89-90 was a strong La Niña, this is a weak La Niña. Also, the PDO has risen a lot in recent weeks to weakly negative rather than strongly negative. I will concede that Feb has warmer risks, but think we are getting slammed in Jan. Maybe 1 warm week, but I think we go BN temp with well AN snow in the east, especially for northern areas. It will be interesting to see how things play out.

Leave tomorrow for Syracuse. Looks snowy my entire drive up, WWA for tomorrow. WSW for Thursday. May see 6” or so from lake effect. Would be nice to then come home to snow on Sunday