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72 here with showers rolling through, dodged the need to turn on the house ACs today which is nice, looks like AC days may be over for the season !

We on the right side of the front . You not

Wtf 62 and -RA after a high of 66

So, will we get our last 80 degree day before of after Halloween?

Yeah that looks really good, but we’ve seen a lot of great looks for Feb only for them to slip away at the last minute. Let’s see if this one holds given the strength of the nina and subsidence over the MC.

And no one cares about the pathetic Os going forward. Next time we will pay attention is if the owner has the nuts to fire Elias, and by extension that pathetic excuse of a manager.

The latest CanSIPS has that feature getting stronger as winter progresses, but it also has it located far enough west for an EPO ridge. January and esp February look interesting, suggesting a -AO and -NAO as well. That combo would he a best case for cold to move southward into our nearby source region while mitigating PAC puke onslaught.

Again, we always pay for early cool downs. Be thankful though, 2017 was worse.

Just like 16-17, a Niña.

NOAA ERSSTv6 updated for Aug. Here's the ENSO 3.4 region temps.

Fear Not! I am keeping my pool open until October 19th! This should summon the cold air from Canada ASAP! …Or on the flip side if it’s hot I will be the most popular house in the neighborhood!

The morning's forecast for here of 1/4"-1/2" has been lowered to 01"-0.25" this afternoon. It seems that the latest QPFs immediately before events get reduced from earlier forecasts 90% of the time. Sandy River is below the 10th percentile. Last Thursday's 0.40" has come and gone by.

77 here off of 81.2. Muggy. Summer

Early data for Aug has updated. Near avg Aug again. Summer was on the warmer side again this year. Also included station map showing how things looked across our region. 5 & 10 yr trend charts shown respectively.

Just checked the NWS 7 day highs and i wanna die

Souptember 2026

July ‘26 ERSSTv6 relative 3.4 was +1.333 per this: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/Rnino34.ascii.txt Do you have a link to the monthly GAMSSA data? Using the image below, the July ‘26 relative 3.4 BoM is ~+1.7 meaning a difference of ~0.37 between it and ERSSTv6:

Maybe not, but it's off to a nice start on the 12 Gefs. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=namer&pkg=z500aMean&runtime=2026090912&fh=384

86F/DP 67F Not horrible w/the breeze/partly cloudy...

80 here. A bit more humid ahead of the front

Isnt a NOAA monthly RONI peak of 3.0 equivalent to 3.6 for BOM? Like what's even the issue lol. There's an approximate difference of 0.6C in the July verification data between ERSSTv6 and the GAMSSA. NOAA's ERSSTv6 does not use any satellite SST data and has 2x2 degree resolution. Its extremely conservative compared to the verification data for ECMWF and BOM.