All Activity

Nope. We’re cooked on significant snow. Forums praying for sleet

Short answer, with this set up, no.

1.5 melt overnight

Reminds me of the beginning of covid. There's a highly infectious respiratory virus going around, let's buy ALL the toilet paper!!!

I used to work for the State in the garage. When winter weather was coming in, we went into automatic 12 hour shifts to take care of the salt trucks. Man those blades were heavy. .

State of emergency declared in whole state of GA.

That's what I thought and was my understanding. So you might figure (for DC) ~8" of pure snow plus another couple inches of snow/sleet after that, perhaps. Or something on that order. The point-click forecast is currently going 5-9" overnight Saturday and then snow/sleet Sunday (with no estimate yet on amount).

Holy fuck it is SNOWING SIDEWAYS Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

If you’re going off just this 12z suite, maybe a bit? If you’re including some 6z and 0z in your super ensemble, maybe not? Think that’s about spot on what 6z euro had except for maybe southernmost zones? And yeah, 1” of sleet seems quite possible on top of snow.

... it is sickening that PA/NYC/SNE are robbing us though

Dude do you have any idea what they are smoking? Like I’ll take it but do they just think we snow ourselves out before mix at very end? They 14” line down to South Jersey is just comical lol and these are the “pros”

I feel like they should have a 3D cross section of P-Type depth like 10" of snow with 2" of sleet on top. That would help visualize it better.

Any chance the storm goes a little more south to about Savannah and up the east coast so we could have more snow or would the model runs have already shown this

Girdeth y'all's loins if you rely on the Kroger in Oak Ridge Hope you already have all the bread and milk you need for your bread and milk sandwiches: Don't forget the sour cream dip for your milk sandwiches Home Depot also out of propane

This doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me, unless they really think ratios would be impacted. Most of the immediate area would still see no ice, but they would be scaling back accum everywhere. But I also have to think this is the heaviest QPF scenario.

Found these maps that pretty much align with my thinking right now.

Haha Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Devastating

well that changes my whole understanding.

Not sure anyone posted but CMC was a little south and a touch colder. FV3 gets precip in earlier (the finger) and because of that it starts as light snow for most of NC. Looks a hair colder that other modeling west of here too

Yeah but NWS counts sleet accumulation as snow accumulation.

Sleet is counted as “snow”

Sorry if I repeated you, I must have missed that comment somehow. 13 UTC NBM run did juice things up quite a bit. Mean is up to 12.5" now. Definitely a consistent trend the last couple days to keep increasing totals despite the one run from overnight (1 UTC) where things went back slightly. I'm kind of hoping that settles because eventually, as you see from some of the individual runs, we start inching into "mix" territory, and we know that warm tongue is often underestimated by the models. The chances of non-snow precip increased a lot (relative, 4% to 10%), as well. To see where things could go wrong, you might compare these two shots at 66 hours. Here we see the 12Z GFS with three distinct pieces of energy at 5H. Northern vort over Montana, secondary in Utah, and primary southern vort over Mexico. Hasn't quite phased yet. This is the 12Z NAM at the same time. We can see the distinct pieces of energy are interacting, instead. Southern energy is pulling north and west as a natural condition of the phase with the northern energies. We want the phase just not too early. The 12Z Euro hedges slightly in between these two, but as far as I can tell, neither the 700 nor 850 temps get above freezing as modeled there. Silver lining is the long-range NAM isn't all that good, but it is remains a possibility. Not quite in the "comfortable" range yet.

and Morristown, right? Right?!?