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You would still think you could get one of these to get squashed south on occasions but with no HP or lower heights out ahead, Nope.

I usually ignore the nonsense hype machine that is Tony Pann, but his latest post has me intrigued about the AI GFS and Euro. What were they showing?

You got alotta room to cut. Cut it to Pittsburgh, cut it to Lake Michigan, cut it to Chicago. It’s all cutters all the same

That pattern still makes me ill. Of course somehow we have this massive central US ridge amid a massive Bering Sea ridge and Greenland ridge. Honestly, we’d be much better off with a SE ridge with that depiction, but somehow we have the Elephant Man look in the US.

-NAO are definitely more helpful than harmful. But we will need cooperation from the pacific. With all the energy roaring ashore the Pacific Northwest this week, it’ll be hard to get the pacific to slow down enough. And mind you, that’s only if the -NAO doesn’t link up with the SER. If it does, then it doesn’t matter how much pacific Help you get, it’ll be cutter city

The stratosphere is certainly going to try and help get us a favorable Arctic domain.

I'm not expecting it but on the other hand we're closing in on 30 years so I wouldn't be shocked if this is the time the stars finally align.

12Z GEFS strong -NAO that starts in just 5 days and is the strongest -NAO for days 5-16 averaged out on any GEFS run back to at least Oct 31st:

Early start to winter = early start to mud season. 46F

that -NAO has grown rather significant to end to the month... can see a redeveloper around the 28th or so with lower heights being forced over the NE. hopefully we can trend it stronger and farther west

that -NAO has grown rather significant to end to the month... can see a redeveloper around the 28th or so with lower heights being forced over the NE. hopefully we can trend it stronger and farther west

It amazes me how you can lock a cutter weeks in advance.

ended mid April here last year

Folks look on the bright side!!...only 2 more weeks until one of the most if not the most boring year for weather comes to an end..

Tell me it's not winter while you're freezing to death on east winds at Fenway

And then Fri’s rain will come with strong winds so by the end we’ll just have the dirty mall piles. Oh well.

While I agree greatly about the fact that temperatures have been a key driver of this stretch, I will push back slightly on the no big storms for the mountains. Maybe I'm thinking more in terms of cycles, but we've had at least two 20"+ "cycles" over say a 2-3 day period. I do think the upper elevations of 3,000ft+ are wearing the brunt of the positive snowfall departures over the valleys too. Often we see in synoptic seasons like 2007-2008, the valley locations under 1,000ft can see just as much snow as the mountains... because it's synoptic forcing up at 700mb and above. You get a 1" QPF dump and it hits at 300ft almost the same as at 3,000ft if the temperatures are cold enough. But this stretch has been meso-scale driven and just loaded QPF and snowfall into the upper elevations non-stop. And a bunch of the early snows in November were heavy QPF events. It was elevational driven too... like when Stowe opened with 250 acres of terrain all on natural snow essentially back in mid-November, my backyard had next to nothing. There was a monster gradient in there for 2-3 weeks around 1,500ft. From like 1-3" to like 18"+. Which I think is seen in some of the lower elevation snowfall numbers as to why they aren't as ahead of normal as some other years... while the mountains are clearly in record territory. I do agree on the bread and butter though... despite a couple of "big events" they aren't hyped events. I think there was one Winter Storm Warning? Even Advisories have been limited for this, largely because the snow has been impacting higher elevation spots and been mesoscale in nature. The Stowe Snow Report team ran a SWE analysis yesterday for NWS/NOAA and I'll share some photos later, but we generally found 55" depth at 3,000ft High Road with 13" of water. While 1,500ft was 26" snow depth and 6" of water. Both plots were consistent at 23-24% water. 13" of water up high seemed fairly impressive for a snowpack that began roughly 6 weeks ago. That's a good slug of frozen QPF! And would check out for over 100" of snowfall.

ehh, 2016 was not luck. there was a very strong west-based -NAO that developed, which is a classic KU signal

Yep, h5 pattern seems to be trying for some light to moderate events for MA-NE. Maybe a 96-like big dog can happen, but extremely unlikely.

I'm becoming more convinced over the years that snow around here is completely random luck that can happen any winter. 2016 was a warm turd except for the week prior to the storm and another short period of cold around valentines day.

I just hit 60 for the first time in a month! It feels great too!

95-96 was a Niña

I hope its 85F on April 17 so I can watch playoff hockey outside with just a jersey on

2032.

Winter finally ends April 17th…