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SW, US ridge will do that.

sleet mixing in

It's just a middle ground of probability.. where the money is flowing regarding probable pattern. There is nothing meteorological about it, but some traders may use meteorology to buy/sell the market. I know this board is about discussing scientific theory, etc, but 90% of people really only care about what the Winter will bring so I reference the current trading trend and price.

NFL Draft this week! OTAs, then training camp before you know it. Meanwhile the Os will probably still be struggling to stay around 500. Like you said, some of their highly valued/ coveted minor league talents look awfully mediocre in the Bigs. I think Elias labeled Mayo as one of the 'untouchables' for trades lmao.

It's easy to accept a theory without data. I did say that in the last 100 years something is reversing it. I'm just saying that's probably not a super long term thing, when talking hundreds of years. 1) I don't think we will have a Super El Nino this year. Does Strong reverse? It could be a high end Moderate to Strong peak, imo. If it was a Super El Nino, I agree, something is decadally is reversing it, but I think that's more of a pattern in the 1900s and 2000s and may not always be the case. 2) I do think we have +ENSO tendency for the next 3 years. That may cushion the reverse next year, and be more likely to go Neutral or Weak Nina. I don't think it will be a Moderate to Strong La Nina in 27-28.

Yes. I suspect that we’ll see an acceleration in the ENSO warming over the next few weeks.

This is my friend’s place in Chelsea. Meanwhile it’s 86° here in Aruba.

Cant wait for the heat and dews.. let's hope for another special summer that kicks off in June..

March we had the 2nd most positive NAO on record, 75 years x 12 months = 900 analogs. This is what the roll forward to May after +NAO March looks like:

Please bring this back

Your weekly ENSO tracking showing signs of the impending rapid rise i am sure you will be showing us in the coming weeks. Seems like many of us are excited about this Nino.

.64" looks like will be my total, blue skies to my west moving in as the sun starts to shine through, 41 degrees.

just ripped snow here for about 3 minutes, hasn't dropped below 32 yet today, though.

Snowflakes in the air in Port Jeff Station. Crazy. .

Sleeting in Hubbardston right now.

Blah

Congrats on falling into the 30s.

A strong late-season cold shot lies ahead. The cold front that will usher in the unseasonably cool air is now moving across the region, bringing with it some light rain. Rainfall amounts will generally be 0.33" or less. Following the frontal passage, highs will reach the middle 50s on on Monday and Tuesday in New York City. Tuesday morning will see the temperature fall into the middle or upper 30s in the Cit. Areas outside of New York City could experience a late-season freeze. No significant rainfall appears likely through the foreseeable future. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around April 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was +6.20 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.193 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 88% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.1° (2.4° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Rain / Snow mix here

Sleet Awesome

Running out of time down here where we have synoptic larger systems that can bring much rain. In the summer odds are that most rain is inland with pop up storm activity.

I'm not no much worried about a frost or freeze once to like 5/10 up here but I have found if you wait a few more weeks beyond that the soils warm up and things just seem to do better. Of course that varies from year to year with the actual weather conditions as to how fast the soils warm. Have found with cool soils things just tend to "sit there" until it really warms up and with cool soils if we hit a wet stretch things have a higher chance of rotting out. The cooler weather crops are a different story but I don't plant much of those these days.

All snow for the past couple of hours here. Bit of a lull at the moment. Nothing sticking but a couple of the evergreens showed some white during the heavier moments.

Down to 43 here