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Point is those "freak" storms are pretty common in this magnitude of El Nino....Feb 1983, January 2016 (which only grazed me), Dec 1997. The deck will be stacked in favor of a big fish, sorry I can't guarantee it will rake everyone. The southeast doesn't look +4 to me.

Hawaii is getting insanely lucky with Lowell. That’s a beast of a system

Very warm week this week with a mild down for the weekend

Next wave coming off Africa has some decent ensemble support for development at least early on…

Yeah. They were noticeable during our fire out session last night. Not as bad as other times but I can’t wait for them to die

Crazy. It's 54 up on the Tug Hill. We're getting a taste of summer in Upstate NY. Beautiful out there.

Yeah, beautiful out there, 48 here but it won't kill the mosquitoes....they are horrendous right now

Got into the 40's all the way to the shore of Buzzard's Bay. Impressive.

UH OH, looks like we got a bad model run

Hoodie needed in the Berks this AM, no complaints here. Currently 53 here, 57 back home in HPN.

My low was 48.4 but a PWS Davis near me recorded 43.7 Should be beautiful later today Finally some CoC

47F here in E CT as well

The latest relative weekly for Nino 1+2 comes in about where I expected, +3.9. This for the 2nd week in a row is at a record high (back to 1981) for the week, warmer than 1997’s +3.6 and 0.4 warmer than the previous week’s +3.5. The highest relative 1+2 on record for any week is +4.6 (1983) and the highest relative in 1997 for any week was +4.1, which was set twice. Regarding the relative for other regions, Nino 3 warmed barely while 3.4 and 4 stayed the same. The changes overall mean an even more E based Nino than the prior week showed: 9AUG2026 3.2 2.5 1.8 0.0 26AUG2026 3.5 2.6 1.8 0.1 02SEP2026 3.9 2.7 1.8 0.1 For comparison: 03SEP1997 3.6 2.8 2.0 0.4 So, early Sept. ‘26 is slightly more E based than the previous most E based early Sept. (back to 1981) of 1997. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

58 imby. 57 at bwi.

And near 80 this afternoon. Warm baby

Climatologist49 @climatologist49.bsky.social · 1d Nepal observed their warmest August nationwide, with the most anomalous region being the border with China/Tibet. It is hard to imagine that record warm temps did not hasten the bedrock/glacier collapse disaster.

Here' the past 30 days temperature data for the Everest Base Camp. All days are above freezing, reaching as warm as 10C. Temperatures below freezing have been rare in the past month. Even Camp 2 at 6464m has been above freezing most days. It took me a few seconds to google up this data. https://scidata.appstate.edu/everest/

50 here this morning. Please let Blizz sleep a few more months. I'm trying to enjoy the last of the warm weather. I'm sure he'll get plenty opportunities to shine this upcoming winter.

New all-time weekly Nino 1+2 ONI at +4.6. This surpasses the previous record set back in June 1983 of +4.5. The highest 1997-1998 was able to achieve was only +4.0. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ 02SEP2026 25.3 4.6 13AUG1997 25.0 4.0 29JUN1983 27.0 4.5

A post-collapse picture of the Nepal avalanche site shows multiple meltwater streams from the glacier remains. Including those clearly sourced from cooler elevations above the collapsed zone. Further supporting the above freezing temperature estimates for the site.

Many spots in the Northeast are in the top 5 or 10 for 80° days through September 5th with the early start back in March.

49-50F this AM. Brisk baby