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Transient 316-3/20 cooldown, then a massive warm surge across the entire CONUS moves in right around the Equinox

Torch today going to hit 70+ easily if we don’t seabreeze.. 66 already here.

it's also a shit town in illinois (no offense to our el paso posters)

I’ve already resigned myself to losing Wed here. This is rough though. Haha. Date: 54 hour NAM valid 18Z WED 11 MAR 26 Station: 42.92,-71.81 Latitude: 42.92 Longitude: -71.81 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 130 SFC 984 256 1.6 1.0 96 0.6 1.4 90 7 276.0 276.7 275.3 287.4 4.19 2 950 542 -0.9 -1.1 98 0.3 -1.0 107 19 276.3 276.9 274.8 286.5 3.70 3 900 984 11.2 9.7 90 1.6 10.3 193 43 293.1 294.6 287.8 317.1 8.40 4 850 1461 10.3 10.0 98 0.3 10.1 211 50 296.9 298.6 289.8 323.3 9.10 5 800 1964 7.1 5.8 91 1.4 6.3 218 51 298.8 300.1 288.8 320.0 7.23 6 750 2492 4.0 0.9 80 3.2 2.4 226 44 301.0 302.0 287.9 317.3 5.45 7 700 3051 1.6 -5.6 59 7.2 -1.6 235 41 304.2 304.9 287.2 315.3 3.59

Texas? Here's the NAM forecast for tornado parameter. There's going to be a high-shear environment for supercells near and south of the warm front, and possibly cold front. Models differ on how much the warm front moves toward the cold lakes (like me.)

It's going to be super close WOR. Looking at some soundings from the NAM WOR you can see a more SE component to the wind but (Even though its March) if the NAM is overdoing the clouds/AM precip, it would not take much to mix out that shallow and subtle layer. Could be a day where DXR gets to like 66 and BOS 41

Enjoy the transient 3/16-3/20 cooldown. A massive warm surge pushes across the entire CONUS right around the Equinox…..

Of course we get doored, but next week probably sails west of us with hard nips in between. Epicosity.

rgem with a bd too

Might be one of those late day and evening warm pushes, especially CT.

NAM says we all porked. I'd like to think it may be too aggressive, but it tends to sniff these out.

rules

Good question. I have some equipment to move on an open trailer. We were planning Wednesday A.M. but now concerned

Ya think Wednesday’s will suck out here WOR Wednesday? It will we escape it and have a good day?

ready for a palm crusher

yeah seems about the same here.

Enjoy today and tomorrow.

there was some talk of a oil reserve release among G7 economic ministers / leaders, but it's not clear how serious or immediate that is.

There's a pretty good chance you see colder reading's than that as some very cold air lurks to our North in Canada. I think around here anyway , the first is called something like Sarvis.?. After a type of Tree I think. Second, redbud, third Dogwood then Blackberry. Nothing to tat really of course. I've witnessed years with more than that many cold snaps and some less. The Dogwood one "may" have some merit; if you tie in a Spiritual Component.

these are futures contracts - so the thought is that if the Strait of Hormuz remains the way it is, the supply of oil generally will be drastically affected. Even some of the later contracts (late 2026) are getting close to $100/bbl, suggesting that investors think this will not be something acute.

I'm headed to cabin this weekend for work weekend. From what i've seen much ice is gone from Pine. You should start to drop soon. Not sure there's enough of a pattern change to worry about flooding, but hoping drought concerns are mitigated. Gonna be what its gonna be. Happy spring fling all. Didnt mean to come off as a jackwagon, but its seemed a bit tense as we transition away from winter and what's next. Every year the first warmup seems to give false hope, and we all should know that its too soon to "call it", let alone squabble over uncertainty.

Of course I read your post..I responded to it. And that was one run, the runs before were conducive. And it’s not just one chance either…so there’s that option. But Personally after being outside here just now…to hell with more snow. This is fabulous..and I’m ready to move on to the next season. But I also know it’s March 9th…

LOL....its like seeing the NAM before a SWFE hammering H75 with 2C.....you know you're screwed when it shows BDF/CAD too

Fook we porked Wednesday.

57F.... there's like a slurping noise coming from the snowpack in the yard, haha. Just getting eviscerated.