All Activity

The entire warm pool is being discharged. Not only is there not any significant trade resistance this time around (remember '15?), quite a bit of activity has been ongoing away from the equator in addition to being on it. Modeling has steadily been playing catchup since the start of the event as it gradually incorporates all of the additional accumulated wind stress and eckman transport. This will be a colossal east-based event and trying to short it or fade it or talk it down is a fool's game. Look I get it, I like snow too and very early on (Dec/Jan) I was hoping we'd get a moderate event with the indo-pacific warm pool still intact. But that ain't happening. Better off cheering for some exotically warm winter up north that forces some weirdly favorable wave breaks downstream and south. Or save your emotional capital for the backlash Nina period. These big Ninos do have a tendency to cause climate regime shifts, so it's not always a bad thing once the event clears.

Some cloud contamination this afternoon may be enough to keep things just under the 90 F threshold here.

Yeah, it has been a great link to use during the heatwaves since it was established. They even have a records section from previous years and months. The Queens corridor into Interior Nassau at times has seen some of the strongest compressional heating east of the Hudson.

I agree. Was working some summer league games and got in the car at 3-2 and listened to the wheels fall off. They had 2 runners thrown out at the plate in extra innings in the past 2 weeks which could have changed the outcome of both games. Right now they are making fundamental errors which major league players shouldn't. Offensively, they are horrible. I do think Coswer is trying to get more selective at the plate, but still can't hit breaking balls. Neither can Mayo. And who knows what is in Henderson's head since the first month. I feel bad for Baz since he gets no run support. A lot broken right now and it is probably too much to fix.

85/71 at my station

GLAAM just dropped from record highs to slightly above normal. I think we're at risk of ruthlessly extrapolating some short term mean reverting variability here. It's definitely coupled to the atmosphere. Hell, there's a standing wave set up in the tropical Pacific already.

I find it to be alright...I don't think its anything truly groundbreaking over traditional MOS. What can be very valuable about it is how it provides temperatures based on percentile which can be a huge asset in highly anomalous patterns. For example, I think it was a couple years ago when they were getting very big heat in the West I remember some places where the 90th percentile which was verifying over the typical median which is spit out. I think it absolutely sucks though along boundaries, which I mean can be expected to a degree, but it almost always, always to favor towards the warmer side of the boundary. I've seen NBM bust by like 15F because it had the warm front blowing through and that never happened. I also like how it does not have the limit of reporting cloud cover...so it will pick up on the high clouds while traditional MOS will spit out CLR

The more Niña-like pattern is probably being enhanced by how much warmer the Indian Ocean through the Maritime Continent to around the Dateline is than all the other previous super El Niños at this time of year. So we get a westward extension of the forcing overlapping with the El Niño standing wave. Notice how the dates of the record warmth going back to March in the East coincided with the forcing moving from the Indian Ocean to the WPAC. Plus the interaction between the record SSTs in the Mid-latitudes could also be influencing the pattern. Even the state of the Arctic could be playing a role. The extent of the +30C pool is larger than 2023 at this time when we were having a much cooler El Nino-like pattern from the late spring into summer. So we are getting a head start on the Niña-like influences which waited until closer to the winter in December 2015 and January 2024 to occur. +30 C warm pool expansion since the late 1990s during the late spring of developing super El Niños

Wow, 84 here. Was 88 yesterday

Currently my forecasted highs for Thursday and Friday are only 100F. Somehow that feels like a small victory. (But yeah, I taking the over.)

89 here, already surpassed yesterday’s high of 88. More humid today as well.

The dew point is ridiculous at 75 right now, and I'm already up to 89. 89 was my high yesterday.

What goes up … must come down I suppose https://www.instagram.com/reel/DaMVGHzxElA/?igsh=ajBta25tb29sYmtu

Huh what are you talking about? December 1997, 2004, and 2018 were all +QBO, +ENSO and below or near normal in new england. Incredible that you can spread misinfo like this and get away without anyone calling you out.

I was at the O's game last night. Besides the two defensive mistakes by the infield (only one of which was an error). The O's did not do terrible. The score did not reflect how close it was IMHO.

Here is the link: https://nysmesonet.org/networks/nyc If you click on the "Grid" tab you can see the locations of the mesonets.

In case anyone was wondering.

June 30 1982: Frost hits St. Louis County. Kulger Township falls to 27 degrees and Meadowlands bottoms out at 32. 1871: Extremely large hail falls in Meeker County. Some of the stones are 6 inches in circumference, breaking many windows on the north sides of houses. For Tuesday, June 30, 2026 1886 - The second destructive hurricane in nine days hit the Apalachicola-Tallahassee area. (David Ludlum) 1942 - The temperature at Portland, OR, hit 102 degrees, an all-time record for that location. (The Weather Channel) 1972 - The entire state of Pennsylvania was declared a disaster area as a result of the catastrophic flooding caused by Hurricane Agnes, which claimed 48 lives, and caused 2.1 billion dollars damage. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Hot weather prevailed in the Pacific Northwest, with readings above 100 degrees reported as far north as southern British Columbia. Yakima, WA, reported a record high of 100 degrees, while temperatures near the Washington coast hovered near 60 degrees all day. Thunderstorms prevailed from southwest Texas to New England. Thunderstorm winds gusting to 100 mph at Gettysburg, PA, killed one person. High winds and large hail caused more than five million dollars damage to property and crops in Lancaster County, PA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Thunderstorms in eastern Kansas drenched Worden with 12.21 inches of rain, and a wall of water two to four feet deep swept through Lone Star, KS, flooding every home in the town. Up to ten inches of rain was reported southeast of Callaway, NE. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 75 mph at Winfield, KS. Seventeen cities in the north central and northeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Duluth, MN, with a reading of 36 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Winnfield, LA, reported 22.52 inches of rain in three days, and more than thirty inches for the month, a record for June. Shreveport LA received a record 17.11 inches in June, with a total for the first six months of the year of 45.55 inches. Thunderstorms also helped produce record rainfall totals for the month of June of 13.12 inches at Birmingham AL, 14.66 inches at Oklahoma City, OK, 17.41 inches at Tallahassee FL, 9.97 inches at Lynchburg, VA, and more than 10.25 inches at Pittsburgh, PA. Pittsburgh had also experienced a record wet month of May. (The National Weather Summary) Observances: 30 Tue World Social Media Day 30 Tue International Asteroid Day 30 Tue National Meteor Watch Day 30 Tue International Day of Parliamentarism 30 Tue National Corvette Day 30 Tue Social Media Day 30 Tue National OOTD Day 30 Tue Clean Your Disposal Day

I’ve been looking for an excuse to use the word “torrid” so I will for the next few days

That I know of, no... Would save me a lot of time if there was. Maybe some members from the NWS has (special) access to some evaluations?

Temps inland already in the 70's. Cooler here in town with 50's, but the cloud deck just cleared, so temps should start rising quickly. We'll see if point cast of 90 here in town pans.

ICON had it running into Sunday now... 94 to 98

The upcoming east coast heatwave and the recent western snowfalls is a canonical la nina feature. Yet another sign we are not yet being influenced by + enso.