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My expectations for this winter weren't that high to begin with .The pattern has already verified quite a bit colder then I would have thought, due to my solar cycle biases. Hopefully, when we reap the benefits of the SSW later this month we're not in the hostile phases of the MJO and can time some other interactions properly. As far as any guidance goes, I don't put any emotion or thought into any qualitative or quantitative forecast this far out for a number of my own reasons, but mainly because I just can't handle the f****** ride. Until we're inside 96 to 72 I view most of the data as noise and look for other cues .

I feel like Elliott at MU downplays wind almost as much as he does wintry weather. Having said that, he's already emphasizing that Saturday will feature 60mph winds...

000NOUS61 KOKX 031615FTMOKXMessage Date: Feb 03 2026 16:15:43KOKX radar will be down for maintenance today until ~2330z.

Are the heavies centered over NC and the coast? If so, it's snow.

few days in the 30s but much cooler compared to 12z yesterday and 0z last night

The “snow” is officially starting to look kinda crusty. I’d be cool with a thaw/washout and possible reboot later in the month.

The Jan ‘26 30 mb QBO came in at -25.51, Jan’s 2nd lowest on record to only 2015’s -26.7: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data Based on the patterns since 1948, there’s a very high chance (I’d say 95%) that it will be positive by next winter, and there’s a better then even chance for the next +QBO period to even start by late summer.

6:40p after 18z Euro

For sure. I think 2020 was the last winter I hit 30. Been much much less since then

12z Euro cooling down in the long range now

My wife is panicking about "her" chickens freezing to death after hearing on the news about-20wind chills. So we went again through the wind chills stuff and I assured her they would be fine in the double insulated coop out of the wind.

I think the overall dry pattern has existed through most of the seasons the last few years where northern md seems to be stuck in no man’s land between two disjointed jet streams that aren’t playing nicely together for our region.

28.7 here in full sun. If it hits 32 in the next 90 minutes it’s fake reflectivity https://imgur.com/a/5KA4uIk#lDfCNEt

Start a thread by 5:45pm

This!! there were some nights at my grandparents place in Quebec it was hard to sleep.. the nights when it got to -20 or below the lake was LOUD!

Hovering around 39F the last 45 minutes. Hoping temps plateau instead of continuing to spike. I've got winds oriented with the valley perfectly from the southwest at a subtle 2mph. The real warming is plausibly above my head but I guess we shall see come evening. Guidance warmed with 12z in the initial thump albeit with some initialization issues with the great valley as personal weather stations are running a bit cooler risking ice mentioned in the February general discussion.

Right

you can see the clear roof panels I have on the south side. I get a lot of direct and reflected radiation on the path. So it’s fake melting.

Dude, I'm joking. We're not back and it's going to be a rug pull.

solid. that 27 by the swo a week or so ago is the highest anyone can recall for here.

Can't tell if it's all snow, but EuroAI Eps looks threatening the weekend of the 14th.

Neither Euro have anything for Sunday.

Haven't seen the ground yet on the paths the kids shoveled and plowed to the coop. Yesterday's ice on the driveway refroze dark surfaces melt ...

However this is totally how it snows here in February with more latent heat building to our south ready to be pulled over the top of fresh Arctic air! It’s the timing that we need. I like our chances after this week let the chaos begin on the models heading the next 12-14 days we will be tracking soon!

Get it out of the snow