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ICON koochie

The ICON is great here keeps mixing south. the Nam is the only model to show this so hopefully it trends towards the other models at 18x then all is good.

Just got to seven springs -8 here lol Cold AF

Model sucks

Nope

Queue the "it's still snowing in Nashville and it was supposed to changeover to sleet already so that's a good sign for us" posts lol

Internal ratio on TT has me at 8 so I would abscond. But wish the CAMs would come around. At least, CAMs other than the FV3 lol.

Help me out. I'm trying to figure out when we last had a major storm with temps as "wall to wall" cold as this one's going to be? I'm thinking either 93 or 96. Most of the ones lately have been in the 20s to low 30s and as such most plowed roads melted off rather quickly. This one's not going to be so easy for the road crews nor the motoring public.

Regardless of which models are right, it appears we're in for a general 6 to 12 inch snowfall before any mix/change. I cannot believe that so many are miserable about that.

Boo

We've lost what looked like a lock for 12"+ for days, and the signal for late next week is going too. Obviously I'll still take whatever I can get, but this is a bitter pill.

I would probably drop my totals for Berks from 10-14" to 8-12". At this point, it kinda is what it is. A flip to sleet is looking inevitable up to at least the I-78 corridor. I would not rule out 14" for Berks though if something like the HRDPS or FV3 come to fruition. I would also not rule out 6" if one of rh warmer models works out. A blend puts you at 8-12. We're at the stage where much of the public has already made up their ideas of this storm based on forecasts they saw 1-2 days ago. We'll know what the final verdict is by tomorrow night.

ICE deployed

Lots of qpf

RRFS was amped Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

What’s with Reggie lately? EMC Canada not having their Tim Hortons yet?

Honestly, while the threat for sleet at the end is increasing somewhat, many here are way overreacting. Take a compromise and you get one heck of a snowstorm for just about everyone.

All caught up. Not much to add that already hasn’t been said ad nauseem. Early 12z runs look like an omega bomb incoming. We flirt with the sleet along the southern areas. I feel it will reach further inland down in CT where you are further away from the cold air drainage. Up here in SE MA, I think it’ll migrate inland about 10-15mi. Down along the cape you’ll do really well also before any transition to sleet. QPF has been bumping up as well this AM, so I think many areas will be seeing 15-20” with some localized higher totals wherever we see some banding setup or just inland from the cf intrusion.

Yeah it’s hard to say. It should be little tiny ice crystals filling the low levels that are almost suspended. The vid did look like snow crystals…a few looked pretty large. Was the whole layer full of them like fog or did you just see them in a certain area? You can definitely get flakes out of a chimney if it’s cold enough too. I’ve seen flakes falling out of light steam fog off the river here where it’s -10° or colder. You should be able to see halos and sundogs through the diamond dust too since it’s essentially a cirrus cloud at ground level. When you see it for real the first time you know it. I’m not saying you didn’t experience true dd here, but I can’t exactly tell from the vid.

Some sleet will help keep the pack more solid and and less likely to blow around on the coast...no ones loosing whatever they get for awhile.

We were talking about you and others in the obs thread a few days ago Glad to see you seeya

They closed the trails? Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

26° at the farm in Stuart and it 100% smells like snow. Has to be just over my head now. Expecting to see flurries on the drive back to Winston. Generator #2 is in the truck with propane bottles and gas. I'm as prepared as I can be to help myself and neighbors. Its go time!

Fwiw, the 12z 3k nam skew t had me 7° warmer at this hour. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk