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AIFS is similiar. Looks like the pattern changes back to cold and possibly storm during Christmas week.

The dreaded 0Z Euro E US torch: awful! 12/20: 12/22: 12/25:

Surprised to see the good trends overnight after the early flaccidness of the 00z runs. I think some of these runs are extremely close to giving the south coast a borderline warning event. Hopefully we can grab a couple inches up to BOS-ORH…still a bit skeptical for the pike region but it’s plausible at least now.

I’m pulling for the southern folks.

It’s unfortunate we melt it all later this week but I still think the 21-24 or so offer a chance or two.

1am sounding for Allentown off the 3k, wow! Plenty of ascent right in the DGZ. The 10pm - 3am timeframe will probably be when the LHV gets the best rates before everything shunts southeast. Snow might be done by sunrise tomorrow morning

Wow decent trends overnight. Would be great to get 1-2 here.

Stop trying

I hope we all do but I really hope those who have bare ground get some. Tis the season.

"Two houses up" can be quite different here than in your area. For instance, for me "two" houses up in one direction is half a mile, in the other direction it is 4 miles.

Some warmth aloft

I don't have a lot of time this morning. A trend worth watching...overnight and morning deterministic runs (CMC, Canadian para, 6z AIFS, and 0z Euro) continue to erode the warmup. That doesn't mean we won't see warm air masses, but go look for yourself. They have, even the gfs, found the Dec 20th cold front. This really looks like more of a back-and-forth pattern where warmth surges, cold erodes it quickly due to the cold source, and wash/rinse/repeat. Ensembles aren't there yet, but at this range...they will wash out any trends.

Hoping for a few mangled flurries

6z Euro is quite a bit more wet for the Lehigh Valley. Solid 2-4", many of the mesos are also bringing WWA amounts north. Should be a solid event for the area.

Gotta love the big "0" right over the Winter Wonderland aka Rainthuen...lol

The H300 PDO finished November at -2.0 due to how extensive the subsurface warmth is. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/ocean_briefing_gif/global_ocean_monitoring_current.pdf

3am update from NWS. A little more snow on the south shore of NYC and Long Island .

2 to 4 covers it lollies to 5

Eps fwiw

If they’re showing that a White Christmas is on the table, then yes I’m very interested.

Yeah, that and the RRFS are on the “juicer” side, so we monitor today’s runs to see if we uptick some or stay the course. Most modeling has 0.2” up to around my area.

Looks like prolonged snow

It would be nice to get a inch or two of fluff here.. but this looks mainly south.. congrats to the ones who haven't seen snow yet!!

Beautiful sunrise. Red sky in the morning, a sailor's warning. Definitely has that "it's gonna snow" feeling in the air

Still expecting 1” only. Boom is 2, bust is flizzard