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0z EC AIFS actually small tick NW compared to 18z, but did not regain the big hit that was 12z... still advisory most of SNE, warning southeast of Plymouth 0z EC also small tick NW... but mostly nuisance low-end advisory outside of Cape

Really emphasizes that when things get warm they shatter records and the opposite side is only average to modestly BN at best.

Started snowing here at 12. Dusting on Vehicle and patches on lawn. Temperature is 37 . Dp 19.

???

I remember growing up in New Jersey that the "cold/dry alternating with just warm enough to rain/wet" pattern was the absolute worst, but I'm surprised how often its happened here this winter (and a bit of last winter too). 40-50 degree rain isn't unexpected but the fact that we've had a lot of cold weather - just not synced up with storms - is really frustrating

We need to get something under 84 or we are going to kill each other lol

That was pretty good. How did you come up with that gem? And who are you?

Hrrr down to 1-1.5” getting lower each run. Ready to wake up to nothing lol

500mb setup should allow the coastal to track further west and dump a foot or two from Goergia to Maine. Of course its fantasy land and nothing like that will verify.

Well all the storm possibilities aside.. it does look like an extended period of cold below normal temps!! For at least the next 2 to 3 weeks and into February. So if we can keep that STJ going somethings bound to connect the right way for a good snowstorm!

Also, that is one hell of a fantasy storm for the SE on the GFS at the end of the month. Crushes everyone except TN so it's plausible.

Amen brother!!!!

It’s like some forget how this works on OP runs at long range…all I took away is there continues to be an above avg change of a snowstorm in the east during that period like you said. It will show hits in the SE, MA, NE or all of them - on various OP runs until we get into range.

Just have to make sure we don’t track for 2 months all for a 3-5

January 30 Crusher

Knoxville is warmer than most of Florida this evening. Looking at a temp map is gross right now.

Yes. It looks quite cold and active!! Law of averages would say at least 1 should hit us !

I really thought the models were going to bust high on temperatures today given how the low last night was colder than expected, but the southwest wind really brought in the warm air and Knoxville is actually warmer than the models said it would be. Funny how the NAM is always right when it comes to any kind of warm nose but if it's the cold outlier, it's gonna be wrong

Yup. Plenty of chances over the next 2 weeks.

Going to take a wild guess and say that not going to happen.

Stays south.. but I'm sure it will change anyway being 320 hours out

It will completely disappear, come back, morph into something else, etc before we know anything useful about any outcome. The takeaway is we have a better than avg chance of a winter storm or 2 with the advertised upcoming pattern. That's all.

Edited to say carolina coast, but still yeah, I'd chase

I would chase that