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Yeah. Just endless moisture down this way. The middle of next week will bear watching as PWATs are progged to climb into the 1.5-2 inch neighborhood by Tuesday into Thursday.

The current record breaking +1.81° is well ahead of what any of the models were forecasting for this month.

Interesting post about the SOI with how east based this event is becoming. I am conducting an interesting experiment due to the fact that this El Niño is exceptionally east based weighted, so much so that it has actually caused sea level pressure anomalies to shift slightly eastward. This in my amount of studying and research shows that this might be skewing the traditional Troup SOI index which is ran traditionally from Darwin, Australia to Tahiti in the central Pacific. so the new index still uses the same formula and is ran from Darwin in Australia, but here’s the difference it now runs to Nuku Hiva island, which is almost 700 miles northeast of Tahiti, but in a latitude since it lines up pretty well with Darwin, which gets this a better result. I found that the SOI in my research and studying was around 10 to 15 more into the negative compared to the traditional index. The picture below really tells the difference on August 28. I used the Tahiti to Darwin formula which is a traditional version which is still used by BOM. But today on 29 August, I used a different formula the Darwin to Neku Hiva and found that the -19.85 really matches well with what we’re seeing right now as far as a sea level pressure anomaly dipole. I’m hoping meteorologists that find this post useful will hopefully help to diagnose the strength of this El Niño true its true colors. So if you all can leave a reply below this post and let me know what your thoughts are. That would be absolutely helpful because I believe this will better assess the true strength of this El Niño event and future ENSO events.

48 degrees this morning.

How can you look at all modeling for next week and think Stein? It could rain several days .

I think ex Dolly might have a chance to develop in the Bahamas or gulf.. both options on the table but unfortunately will end up ots or heading west underneath that high.. nothing to bring it up as of now..

No apology needed! Your points are well taken, and I WAS being obfuscating, not so much in response to you, but rather to cast much deserved shade on the Bloated Behemoth of Babble.

Dollt}"" Despite the hostile conditions, and the fact that there's likely not a coherent LLC, post-Dolly sure is trying her best

The recent El Nino Summers (2015, 2018, 2019, 2023) as a blend are pretty close to 2026 for Jun-Aug - not quite by magnitude but in terms of pattern. Close match for Sept on the CFS too. Honestly, it's probably a decent match overall. 2015/2023 - very strong El Ninos with high solar, neutral/negative PDO values in all four years. Warm Atlantic. 2015/2018 both followed very warm/dry Western winters like 2026 will. Decent QBO match too.

For @weatherwiz it always come back to the EML in the end! Well, the West Stockbridge MA F4 Aug 28, 1973 tracked NNW to SSE, so odds are *big* EML then.

Yes, the state of the MDR is exceptional currently. Dry air and shear regime supreme. Look at the SAL image of the remains of Dplly attached. That dry air wrap that far S (goes to 5 deg N) this time of year? Ugh.

If you were talking in jest from the start, that was not apparent to me. It is very hard at times on social media to detect tone, inflection, and mood (compare to in-person) esp. when it comes to topical or sensitive issues. It can be a minefield and leads to unnecessary conflict. And we all have been there and are susceptible. So I apologize for the improper response. It was not done maliciously or in spite, just I was trying to clarify my position and what was trying to say w/o letting the conversation devolve, which is challenge in itself many times!

That is incorrect. I said I was not being political. Another made it political (or so I thought, see a post below that clarifies) by bring up specific motives/actions by the current administration for this one change. That's not the same thing. And again, I was taking in general about how geopolitical location name changes occur often. That's not taking "sides," politically or otherwise. It is stating objective facts as to how things actually work in the world.

I started rereading this thread and it's hilarious through page 33. And on the other hand it's incredibly frustrating 90% of the images are gone.

Ahh, a name issue. Actually, it is "Canada geese!" I got corrected on that in the 00s.

NW flow late summer? West Stockbridge MA Aug 1973 redux? Or how about this? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_1821_New_England_tornado_outbreak

@CoastalWxknows how to lighten the mood, despite his "EEYORE" tendencies! LOL. I predict "Stein" will work its way into our vernacular eventually. Like "that's so FETCH" from "Mean Girls!"