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SREFs for a laugh..Elbow runner

Not bragging, but showing. Here's mine... Sunday Snow, mainly after 7am. High near 33. Calm wind becoming east around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Sunday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 26. Northeast wind 5 to 8 mph becoming north after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Mu is following the Euro. He either going to look smart or going to look pretty stupid. Hope things stay steady today. Volleyball all day Lewisburg watching my Granddaughter. 37 degrees this morning. Ice is starting to move out at Lock Haven.

Blizzard warnings for CT coast and NYC. Will be upgraded up the coast later today.

Looks like we about to cold tuck

Ohhh we will. Ty. Regardless of how much snow falls, the winds here by the coast is a story unto its self, with any model run on the table.

The 06z GFS would lead one to believe there will be a rapid decrease in snow totals moving west across MD into nVA, I think it would be reasonable to expect Baltimore to get nearly twice as much as DC whatever the outcome. This region is not going to be ground zero for the blizzard but I doubt it reduces to anything close to a non-event, unless it would be a few parts of central VA possibly.

That’s likely how this plays out

Might be near 2” at this point. Light snow currently.

Might be near 2” at this point. About what I thought. Still snowing.

Tricky forecast for Nova

There’s simply no way you don’t go 1-2 feet with local amounts to 3 feet. Thats the map

Sunday Snow before 10am, then snow, possibly mixed with rain between 10am and 4pm, then snow after 4pm. High near 36. Calm wind becoming east around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Sunday Night Snow. Low around 29. Light and variable wind becoming north 5 to 9 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Thats my NWS forecast.

Here’s the data corresponding to the only two locations whereby I personally compiled top 10 lists a couple of years ago for this general area: Philadelphia, PA: 1) 31.0” Jan. 6-8, 1996 2) 28.5” Feb. 5-6, 2010 3) 23.2” Dec. 19-20, 2009 4) 22.4” Jan. 23-24, 2016 5) 21.3” Feb. 11-12, 1983 6) 21.0” Dec. 25-26, 1909 7) 19.4” April 3-4, 1915 8. 18.9” Feb. 12-14, 1899 9. 18.7” Feb. 16-17, 2003 10. 16.7” Jan. 22-24, 1935 New Brunswick, NJ: 26.9 inches January 2016 22.6 inches January 1996 20.9 inches Feb 2003 20.8 inches Feb 1961 20.7 inches Feb 2006 20 inches Feb 1899 19.5 inches December 1947 19.5 inches Feb 2010 18.5 inches Dec 1948 17.9 inches Feb 1983 17.0 inches Jan 2011

FIRST CALL SNOW MAP

Those Maine amounts include part of the 6" we got last night. Knock a couple off there.

I'm very much southern New England. Appreciate the vote of confidence but worried about shadowing.

So now the magic question.....how much the flake damage caused by the wind impact ratios?

I have a open field to my S and W, decent tree coverage to the N and E so hope that helps me

Too bad I need to miss it. I'll be long dead before another one like this comes along.

(As posted on PHL thread) The very rapid pressure falls (especially if GFS most accurate) off the NJ coast will result in wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph, as winds always overperform standard gradient metrics when pressure is falling very rapidly. This will probably apply to Long Island as well. Some parts of central NJ could easily see over 30 inches of snow. There could be bands of 20-25 inch accumulations further north over metro NYC and Long Island also. Drifting will be severe due to the wind speeds. In open areas there could be 4-6 ft drifts near the end of the event. (would say 6-8 ft in parts of NJ). This is all of course dependent on GFS verifying as to details of the bomb cyclone formation. Would cut most of this down by one third or more if there is a weaker bomb further from NJ to LI coasts. It has to be said, this is shaping up to be a potentially very dangerous situation, fortunately the worst conditions may be Sunday night and travel may become impossible by Monday morning which at least will prevent a lot of people from getting into dangerous situations, they will be trapped at home and probably digging out most of Tuesday. Temperatures won't be brutally cold but with these wind speeds, wind chills will be a factor. I think temps will stay fairly close to 30F through most of the snowfall period.

Take the "expected" up

Scooter how much snow yesterday today?

Do able but it will be snowing at that point. And even landing at 1:40pm you’ll have snow falling.