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You forgot a completed SF-86. Fully vet everyone.

1-2" is the general idea for tomorrow. NBM mean is 1.4" at PIT and 1.1" at AGC with decent enough odds of >1" (70%+). Only takes 0.1" at 10:1 to get an inch, so we don't need a ton of moisture with even better ratios. Could be between 15:1 and 20:1, give or take. Latest NAM and GFS are both ~2" according to BUFKIT. Next weekend still a ways out. Nothing really interesting on the operationals. Cutters and other sheared-out messes. Ensembles have also lost a bit of the signal, so I think odds are against anything relevant for now. It will likely change.

Shitty ridge over Texas gives nothing any chance.

I have trouble buying that large swath of QPF.

Tracks

Gfs wild

Tyler, is this a good setup for Boone?

Max: 21 Min: 2 Snow: 0.5

ULL up over Maine just cut that s/w down to almost nothing at the Surface. Goofy Fucking System model.

Could be north of that

Weeklies for last week of February into March look stormy and cold

wienermobile coming to delaware this weekend

I don't know. Looks like the SW is coming out instead of getting stuck but that doesn't mean it will be a good result lol. Also do I email my W2s to you?

You mean it changed, 152K

GfsAI has a storm for next Sunday. Looks snow to rain, then back to snow as low travels through N VA.

They won’t radiate Saturday night with strong CAA but Sunday night they might. Winds take a while to subside and there could be some cloud cover trying to move in so we may not see a lot of radiators going wild during this cold shot, but the best chance is Sunday night.

Which literally means nothing that far out. Track the stuff on your doorstep first... 28F

The East had a winter. The West had a summer.

Geesh, I guess not. I’m probably in the minority here but I’m not really all that impressed with the wind threat if we’re talking strictly from a mph standpoint. Most guidance and that includes the high res stuff like the HRRR that normally ramps up surface winds barely support advisory winds much less anything of the variety that would cause widespread power outages. But I could get on board with a wind advisory for 45-50mph I suppose. Basically a typical wind event in other words, it gusts to 60mph at @canderson’s house in those anyways haha. This event also has a more northerly trajectory to the wind as well being more NW or even NNW.. less of a direct downslope component to enhance wind gusts IMO. What I am impressed with is the COMBO of the winds and cold temperatures. Dynamically this will be the coldest shot of the winter to date. The more northerly component to the wind minimizes modification of the airmass source travelling over the Lakes, which already have a good bit of ice with Erie >95% covered. Non-diurnal “High” temps for Saturday will occur before about 3-4am Sat morning. Sat daytime temps will struggle to get out of the single digits in most of the area. Laurels and some north-central might not crack zero. You can see how there’s an appendage of non-modified Arctic air that reaches PA. I drew the rough surface wind direction. It mostly goes over the frozen portion of Huron and Erie. Saturday morning will probably be the worst for wind chills, though it won’t be good all day. I think most of that extreme cold watch has a good chance of being upgraded to the full blown warning. Here’s the kind of wind chills the 18z HRRR put out after daybreak Saturday morning. I haven’t really seen those kind of wind chills since the Christmas 2022 cold shot.

You guys will be shocked to know that the 18z GFS h5 map is vastly different out west. But looks like that s/w is headed for shredderola

Do the valleys still radiate in these events, or do winds protect from that?

Mesos , and then Euro in that order

We still have another couple weeks of Niña trade winds to fook any chances of getting Niño benefits. That's just the way it works around here unfortunately.

SSW November's? I don't know. Maybe 10? On my old computer I plotted all 10mb events since 1948, but I don't have that data anymore, just memory of what the end result showed. 10mb warmings are lagged to AO, and 10mb coolings happen with AO in now-time (0-day)