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  2. Amped
    It does on the Hrrr, just takes like 8 to 12hrs.
  3. Chinook
    I believe Supertyphoon Dolphin was up to 125kt/145mph today but is now down to 120kt/138mph. This is from about 12 hrs ago when the overall presentation looked the best
  4. high risk
    It was interesting how the overnight runs looked pretty good, and then the 12Z suite (and a HRRR cycle or two after that) didn't look as good, before the HRRR locked on to the solution by late morning. And I'll be curious to see how many tornadoes are actually found. There were probably way more warnings than needed, but I'm wondering if they'll find more than the current count of one (good video of a tornado on the Eastern Shore north of Cambridge). Ultimately, we probably weren't far off from a more significant tornado event, but as you suggested in your post, the low-level winds were probably just a bit too weak, although I think that the low-level profile was slightly better than what the RRFS and GFS/ECMWF were suggesting last night.
  5. WinterWolf
    Is that stuff down off NJ and Delaware supposed to rotate up in here?
  6. NJwx85
    Huge area of backbuikding over Bergen, headed this way.
  7. high risk
    The guidance trends were really interesting. Things were looking encouraging for fairly significant storms in the early runs on Tuesday, and then the cycles right after the raob data became available looked fairly lousy (as noted in your post). Then, the HRRR started locking in again on the more significant solutions.
  8. jm1220
    Latest HRRR has some decent rain for LI overnight and some intensification with the developing low. So far I think there's been a 30 second shower here.
  9. NJwx85
    There’s some back building on radar.
  10. HIPPYVALLEY
    Always in warm months, never in cold months.
  11. HIPPYVALLEY
    It's going to be some very specific corridors of haves and have nots.
  12. JerseyWx
    Definitely a good soaker here. Sitting at about 3 inches. Some areas got twice that, which is pretty crazy. Had solid downpours about an hour ago. Haven't had to add water to the pool once this year, and in fact I've had to drain it several times, tomorrow included.
  13. WxWatcher007
    Somebody is in for a rough morning.
  14. NJwx85
    Currently the hardest rain of the day with some thunder.
  15. Snowlover11
    Absolutely nuking here, even heavier than before.
  16. CT Valley Snowman
    WOR jack seems most probable in SNE to me. Seems to be the most likely pivot point for the banding.
  17. Cyric297
    Yes, thats very close. Just walked the neighborhood and the end of Northclift near North hills has power. I can hear the cell tower generators running across the lake near lead mine. Based on the little damage I am seeing around here, I definitely think we didn't get as strong winds as you/they did just a half mile/mile east of here. Only small branches and debris on the ground over here.
  18. Amped
    The meso low that formed over SNJ is really playing games with models. 00z runs showing a lot more precip over western CT.
  19. Today
  20. John1122
    I hadn't been looking at the long lead seasonal models. I'm surprised at how cold they all are for Dec-March. The newest cfs is really cold. Even the long range Euro last I saw had us near normal. It's usually always warm in the long range.
  21. SI Mailman
    Going to end up going from almost nothing to over 2 inches of rain just like that tonight
  22. calculus1
    Very close by but not really doing anything on the lake. Just enjoying a quiet week with the family. Doing some hiking, mainly. Also ventured down to Andrews for their Rail Tour (rail bikes on old tracks!), which is really cool. I recommend it, if you’re ever in the area.
  23. eyewall
    Well I definitely blew that one but in a good way. I ended up chasing that first supercell from the VA line to Carrboro. It has some pretty awesome structure at times and definitely incredible rising motion with the updraft, intense lightning, and visible circulation.
  24. NorthHillsWx
    Duke street and stonehill have trees down near me. Im close to Millbrook and six forks in the lakemont area. Quiet out now so you can hear all the generators running.
  25. AlexD1990
    Likewise lol. It was actually the weather channel app that warned us before the EAS alert to our phones. I have a livesteam on my Facebook where you can see the clouds twisiting. The sky was a worse blueish green than last week! I swear we don't usually have weather this interesting, only when you visit LOL
  26. Met1985
    Lake Fontana?
  27. steve392
    Absolute deluge outside right now.
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