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  2. LoboLeader1
    90 here as of 2PM. We could really use the rain as opposed to the wind later on.
  3. PhiEaglesfan712
    If the PDO doesn't turn positive, I think the el nino stays below +2C, and 94-95 is our best analog. PDO should flip if we get above +2C, and definitely if it's above +2.5C. There has never been a +2.5C el nino that had a -PDO. Definitely not the best winter, but we could get something out of one month (most likely February).
  4. SnowenOutThere
    Hmm, took a look at the mesoanalysis page and I’m still on the train of storms today could be nasty, but I have some concerns about initiation. I did a hand analysis of the SPC page and evidently the pre frontal axis is located along route 15. Meanwhile, the pre frontal trough associated with a low level wind shift from south to south west is draped across the Allegheny front. I’m just not sure we have the juice to kick off storms. My dew point is in the upper 60s, but our cape west of the beltway remains stubbornly in the 500-1000 range. This isn’t like last Friday where we had 3000+ Cape and near conditionally unstable LL lapse rates. Additionally, the RH between the LCL and LFC is 30-50% across where the trough would cause storms to form. Just seems we got a good bit stacked against us thermodynamically. That said, this is all beginner analysis so the Mets probably see reasons that storms will pop that I don’t.
  5. John1122
    Another day with 90 percent rain and storms that's probably going to miss here again unless we get some miracle developments.
  6. jaxjagman
    Maybe South east TN can get some storms later,cold front is still well out west but the Lapse rates and low level shear showing isnt that great later on,but there is convection that has recently popped up alomg the TN/MS line,guess we will see later.Wed looks to better as Jeff mentioned above,but even that the GFS fluctuates each run seemingly
  7. powderfreak
    We pour.
  8. cyclone77
    Multiple models are showing a large MCS traversing Iowa again the morning of the event. Will be interesting to see how the evolution of that affects the development later in the day. Very impressed by the synoptics of this. Powerful upper jet knifing in with very impressive shear profiles over a wide area on the nose of that.
  9. CheeselandSkies
    I couldn't chase last Thursday due to being in Cleveland on a family trip (probably would have ended up on the still-tornadic relative junk in western IL anyway), but it'd be nice to have the target not be south of I-80 for once since I rarely can take PTO on short notice from my job.
  10. Today
  11. donsutherland1
    Newark has reached 90° for the 12th time this year. The old record through June 14th was 10 days. That record was set in 1930 and tied in 1986 and 1991. 1930 finished with 37 90° or above days; 1986 had just 22; 1991 had 41.
  12. high risk
    Yeah, the HRRR says that parts of our area will have dew points in the upper 50s within the next 2 hours, and I'm very skeptical of that. This is why the HRRR initiates convection later and further east. If it's wrong, storms should initiate somewhere along the Route 15 corridor.
  13. jbenedet
    I will shoot rounds into the sky if this happens again here.
  14. wxmeddler
    Definitely a plume across Central MD. Though it seems lower dews are just above the surface. The Layhill station recently gusted to 25 mph which coincided with a dew point drop to 63. Back up to 67 now.
  15. KakashiHatake2000
    Both Marginal and slight got expanded way westward for today now in all of tn and north Georgia Alabama and Mississippi .
  16. jbenedet
    63F for SST’s off coast of NH https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44098 For the date that’s normal for south shore Long Island…
  17. snowman19
  18. jbenedet
    UNH buoy east of NH already up to 63 degrees…. That’s a month ahead of schedule… https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44098
  19. Stormlover74
    Looks to hold off til at least 9
  20. Kmlwx
    It seems no enhanced with the 1630z outlook.
  21. SnowenOutThere
    Interesting how tight the gradient is between Louden county and the DC border. Do you think it’ll fill in west or no? Visual sat shows some clearing.
  22. Paleocene
    Love the 90 degree day tracking. Who's tracking 70+ degree dew point days? Yesterday was a nice respite but back over 70 here inside the beltway. Yuck. Slightly more tolerable with cloud cover and a breeze
  23. FXWX
    Some of the best lightning shows I've had have come from nighttime elevated cape events! Not a lot of CGs but lots of CC / CA.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    Yea buddy!
  25. olafminesaw
    This has the one of the most bizarre Euro runs I've ever seen. Develops a tropical storm inland? There's not even a closed low prior to the energy coming ashore. Must be some kind of hybrid thing, but seems mostly warm core. Not even way out in fantasy land!
  26. dendrite
  27. North Balti Zen
    Going back to day 2 of All Good Now at Merriweather- hot as hell yesterday but when the sun dropped below the tree line at 7:30 evening was fantastic. Whole day was even with the heat. already 88 as we head over there.
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