All Activity

There's been a lot of chatter lately about the gulf becoming quite active over the next 10 days or more. Taken from the NWS local forecast discussion. A tropical system in the gulf will move up north towards the Ohio River Valley this weekend bringing tropical moisture and rain potential Sunday afternoon into Monday. This system looks fairly progressive. However, robust forcing and PWATs in the 1.5-1.75" range, particularly in the southern tier of the state, may yield some periods of heavy rain. Uncertainty remains regarding how this system plays out. From the NHC Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Wed Oct 7 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Nine is centered near 22.1N 95.0W at 07/0300 UTC or 300 nm W of Progreso Mexico, moving E at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 20N-25N between 91W-97W. An east-northwestward motion is expected on Wednesday, followed by a turn toward the northeast and north on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to pass to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday and approach the U.S. northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Steady strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm early Wednesday and a hurricane on Thursday. Swells are expected to affect the western and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula beginning on Thursday and spread northward toward the Gulf Coast late this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Nine NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave in the E Atlantic is near 19W, extending from 05N-20N. No significant deep convection is occurring in association with the tropical wave. A strong tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with an axis near 66W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 13N-18N between 61W-66W. This wave is also forcing fresh to locally strong E winds across the eastern Caribbean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along coastal Senegal near 14N17W and extends to 09N40W. The ITCZ extends from 09N40W to 10N58W. Scattered moderate convection is along and within 250 nm of these features. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please read the Special Features section above for more information on Tropical Depression Nine. Aside from Tropical Depression Nine, a stationary front is drapped across the northern Gulf from coastal Florida near Tampa Bay to 27N95W to 23N97W. Winds behind the front are moderate to fresh northeasterlies with seas 3-6 ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring N of 24N and E of 90W, as well as along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Nine will strengthen to a tropical storm near 22.2N 94.2W Wed morning, move to 22.5N 92.7W Wed evening, 23.2N 91.1W Thu morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 24.3N 89.7W Thu evening, 26.1N 88.7W Fri morning, and 28.8N 88.3W Fri evening. Nine will weaken to a tropical depression while moving inland near 34.1N 88.8W late Sat. Otherwise, a frontal boundary along the northern Gulf will gradually weaken Wed and Wed night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Tropical Waves section for details on convection in the eastern Caribbean. A weak pressure gradient between the Bermuda High to the north and an 1008 mb Colombian Low is forcing moderate to locally fresh trades with seas of 3-6 ft over the Caribbean this afternoon. Scattered moderate convection is occurring in the SW Caribbean south of 13N and west of 73W. For the forecast, a rather weak pressure gradient over the western Atlantic will support mostly gentle to moderate winds across most of the basin through early Thu. High pressure is forecast to redevelop to the SE of Bermuda Thu night, which will drift westward through Fri evening before dissipating. This will increase the trades over the central Caribbean to fresh speed Fri. These trades will then be at mostly moderate to fresh speeds Fri night through Sun night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A frontal boundary extends from 31N68W to the east coast of FL near Cape Canaveral. A 1010 mb low near 30N78W is along the front, with a surface trough extending southward to near Jupiter, FL. Scattered moderate convection is along and roughly 100 nm S and E of these features. Farther east in the central Atlantic, a pair of surface troughs stemming from a 1015 mb low near 32N40W are supporting scattered moderate convection N of 24N between 32W and 47W. Outside of convection, broad ridging across the Atlantic supports gentle to moderate or weaker trades and moderate seas across much of the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extending from 30N70W to a 1010 mb low near 30N78W to Melbourne will begin to slowly move eastward across the area tonight as a cold front, then stall from Bermuda to NE Florida into Wed. Fresh to strong northeast winds and rough seas will follow the front, remaining off NE Florida through Wed night. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas will persist elsewhere through Fri. By Fri evening, high pressure developing SE of Bermuda and shifting westward will increase trades S of 22N to moderate to fresh speeds, continuing Sat and Sat night. Otherwise, winds will reach fresh to strong speeds again off NE Florida late on Fri as Tropical Depression Nine tracks northward across the Gulf of America. These winds will veer to the SE Sat night through Sun night while weakening.

NHC issuing advisories for TS Isaias. Max intensity forecast 95 kt @ 6z on the 9th.

I don't see how this is still a TD, gotta get bumped up

Lots of frost at home down to 32 when I left.. we take!!

Agree. Its my birthday.

Down to 33F here in the valley, might be able to go below freezing in the next few hours.

GFS tring to snow for some late Tuesday. Euro.also has hints of it

Best track is now 35 kts and upgraded to TS Isaias for the next advisory package.

Big cooldown coming next week, most models have mountain snow and the occasional run has it down to Denver. Snow or not, 40s and 50s will feel very nice after this stretch of unseasonably warm weather.

0Z Euro has landfall near Biloxi ~8AM CDT Sat at 986 mb.

00z HAFS suites are significantly stronger versus 18z. Intensification is faster, with a major hurricane down into the 940s passing east of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Both still show disruption from increasing shear by landfall, but obviously, this would be troubling for surge impacts along the Mississippi, Alabama, and western Panhandle coastline.

The 0Z UKMET landfalls at Mobile at 987 mb ~4AM CDT Sat, which is weaker than its lowest SLP of 978 mb 12 hours earlier in the N Gulf. The center then moves N over W AL before turning left into EC MS and then NE MS. Beneficial rains fall over much of the SE.

Already down to 43. Probably gonna hit 38 here tonight.

interesting setup next Tuesday on GFS

With the new year two months away... Does someone take up the mantle in his honor for the Roger Smith Memorial Forecast Challenge?... (And may he Rest in Peace) Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

already 36° so frost seems imminent in the morning.

Intense bursting of convection now over the NHC's 10PM CDT advisory position:

Every guy coming out of the Brewers' bullpen throws like 500 mph. Jesus.

Icon brings the rain in by midday Sunday. The gfs even earlier. In fact its over by midnight

Began as a depression in the E-pac that dissipated, then made a sudden comeback and instantly began threatening the Big Island almost a week later

recent mountain web cams

The VERY definition of a small window! I was spot on with this part of the peak season forecast.

strange Hurricane Nolo