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I think yo can already see the start of that on the 18z

It better get going soon

GFS is awfully flat through 93 compared to 12z.

This feels like something that is gonna trend more and more east/develop later and later from this model suite on, smh

Following a foggy start, tomorrow will see highs reach the lower and perhaps middle 40s. Some rain showers or a period of rain is likely later tomorrow into early Thursday as a system streaks rapidly from Minnesota across central New York State and into New England. Parts of central New York State and southern/central New England, including Boston, could see some accumulating snow. Additional precipitation could arrive Friday or Saturday. Highs will likely reach the 40s through Saturday. Numerous ensemble members and operational models continue to suggest the potential for a significant or major snowstorm some time in the February 22-24 timeframe. More evidence in the form of model consensus and support from a large number of individual ensemble members will be needed before there can be reasonable confidence in such a solution. For now, one is dealing with a low probability but high-impact scenario. An AO-/PNA- pattern, which is forecast for the timeframe involved, has seen a number of significant or major snowstorms during the second half of February. Since 1950, New York City has seen four 6" or above snowstorms during such patterns, including the 1979 President's Day blizzard (12.7") and the February 25-26, 2010 snowstorm (20.9"). In contrast, during AO+/PNA- patterns, New York City has seen just one 6" or above snowstorm. Details should start to become clearer by Wednesday or Thursday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around February 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will develop during the close of winter. The SOI was +15.13 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.264 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 97% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.5° (4.4° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.8 below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 31.9°. That would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below.

Gfs robot shifted east.

Weekly ice updated today. Also added accumulated ice for the season so far.

looks like a RT 2 NMA SNH/VT type jack to me, but I'll take anything at this point, I'm about 2' to climo and if this or this weekend doesn't deliver, it's looking like mud season, looks decent for the weekend though, we'll see, rug pulls are becoming common place around here

I’ve never been to Mammoth, but have skied in extreme conditions in Montana and New Mexico. The heaviest snow I’ve ever seen was actually in Taos NM. 4 feet of snow in 2 days. The powder was surreal! They will likely get double that or even more at Mammoth this week! You seriously have to be extremely careful even more so after a snow of this magnitude once the snow ends. Like you said Carver, you can’t see anything and you don’t know what obstacles or tree wells, holes, etc you might encounter. Plus the resistance from the powder is difficult to navigate when it’s that deep. It’s fun to experience it but it’s hard to do anything much with it. It’s hard to imagine that there’s too much snow to ski on, but that is kinda what happens. Now give it a few days and it will be epic! However, with the forecast looking like a steady atmospheric river of snow, it might be more than a few days before they can reopen it!

I know but it’s old info at this point.

GFS running now,,,,,,,,,tick tock

Agreed 16.6" over 4 days! a truly unique storm!!

Looked good overall - tad s/e weaker 12z 126 vs 18z 120 but seemed like a slower phase and would be a a nice hit FWIW at 120 on the ICOn anywas.

That's the most recent one. The 3-4 week gets updated weekly (on Fridays), so the next update is on Feb 20 (for March 7-20).

With the 500 cut off where it is on the ICON at 120 hr and the sfc low about 100 mi E of ORF, that should be enough for a movement close enough to SNE for sig snow. The strong vort SW of the cut off is somewhat of a wildcard. It seems to be rotating around the cut off faster than the upper low itself, so does it continue and go negative as it crosses the coast and you get one large cut off low just S of LI? The ridge over the Rockies is staying put and not de-amplifying, so that's good. Downstream the flow is still rather flat, but there are modest 500 height rises S of NS and NFL 108 to 120 hr.

I had like 3 inches from that storm all on the wrap around stall the next day after the brunt of it. Still leaves a bad taste in my mouth lol

Wrong… That was issued Feb 13‼️

No sun here but 40 for a high and some noticeable melting.

Thats what I took from it. I think that may have gotten pretty wrapped up on future hours

Euro had a pretty expansive precip shield for not being able to ‘find the storm.’

That’s what we are talking about . Tomorrow night

what's funny is that the OP euro has been brutal this winter too...not GFS bad but still pretty bad. The AI euro is crushing the OP euro in verification scores last I saw...it's going to be a clear upgrade once it's fully integrated.

GSP has put snow in the forecast for Sunday and Sunday night. A low of 18 is going to be a shock after a week of warm temperatures.

This type of setup is pretty sensitive to a last second amplification.

The ICON 500mb now looks like the Euro at 12z. Quite the change from 12z.