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I think going below average is fine, but I have too much respect for SNE climo, the CC related propensity for more extreme precip events including large snowfalls, and the 2nd half of winter "wildcard" pattern like 82-83 to just go complete ratter. I'd probably honestly go 25-40" in Boston rather than 15-30" if one was using 15" increments.

You would need a massive Nino override for it to work out for us. Like a rare CC induced combo that actually produces a snowier outcome.

October 8 1949: A record-setting 3.17 inches of rain falls at Eau Claire. For Thursday, October 8, 2026 1871 - Prolonged drought and dessicating winds led to the great Chicago fire, the Peshtigo horror, and the Michigan fire holocaust. Fire destroyed more than seventeen thousand buildings killing more than 200 persons in the city of Chicago, while a fire consumed the town of Peshtigo WI killing more than 1100 persons. In Wisconsin, a million acres of land were burned, and in Michigan, 2.5 million acres were burned killing 200 persons. "Tornadoes of fire" generated by intense heat caused houses to explode in fire, and burned to death scores of persons seeking refuge in open fields. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1901 - A deluge at Galveston, TX, produced nearly twelve inches of rain in about a six hour period. The rains came precisely thirteen months after the day of the famous Galveston hurricane disaster. (David Ludlum) 1982 - An unusually early snowstorm hit the northern Black Hills of Wyoming and South Dakota. The storm produced up to 54 inches of snow, and winds as high as 70 mph. The snowfall was very much dependent upon topography. Rapid City, 20 miles away, received just a trace of snow. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Unseasonably cold weather prevailed from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the southeastern U.S. Thirty cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Madison WI with a reading of 22 degrees. The low of 28 degrees at Evansville IN was the coolest of record for so early in the season. Hot weather continued in the southwestern U.S. Phoenix AZ reported a record high of 104 degrees and a record tying 116 days of 100 degree weather for the year. Tucson AZ established an all-time record with 72 days of 100 degree weather for the year. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Snow was reported across parts of northern New England. Two inches blanketed Mount Snow VT. Warm weather continued in the northwestern U.S. The afternoon high of 80 degrees at Stampede Pass WA exceeded their previous record for October by seven degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Morning lows in the 20s were reported from the Northern Plains to the Upper Great Lakes. International Falls MN and Marquette MI reported record lows of 22 degrees. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed in central California as the Oakland Athletics won the American League pennant. San Luis Obispo CA reported a high of 99 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) Observances: 8 Thu International Podiatry Day 8 Thu National Depression Screening Day 8 Thu World Sight Day 8 Thu Alvin C. York Day 8 Thu American Touch Tag Day 8 Thu Dyslexia Day 8 Thu International Birth Registration Day 8 Thu International Newspaper Carrier Day 8 Thu National Fluffernutter Day 8 Thu National Harbormaster Appreciation Day 8 Thu National Pierogi Day 8 Thu National Salmon Day 8 Thu World Octopus Day 8 Thu National Heroes’ Day

TBH, it needs to be to have a similar impact given the anecedent state of the Pacific.

So not even a flake ?

You need to stop trolling. You were wrong last season when you said we will not see anymore big storms.

this event is already stronger than 1997 was in december

We can all agree 1995-1996 was in incredible winter, but there was a notable deviation from that pattern during the middle portion of January.

The rain is going to be very widespread to the east of the center. The shear is going to decouple the surface and ULL's pretty quickly after landfall. Other than the normal downsloped areas around the US411 corridor, the rain should be really widespread unless the surface low goes way east over the Carolinas. I noticed the physical models upped our rainfall in the southern valley from 1-2" into the 2-4" range. That's more in line with what I expected even given the fast forward motion. Lots of forcing available to squeeze that moisture out.

Yeah I've been reading that may be the biggest problem with moisture heading this way is that convection along the coast will rob us.

You're right...I guess Ayer, MA will have to settle for 2"/hr instead of the 6" in 1997...then again, there is more moisture available in the warmer air...

More often than not, sure...but as you know, there are shorter-term deviations from the longer term seasonal mean. On Tuesday December 23rd, 1997 - A snowstorm was forecasted to be fast-moving and produce light snow across New England slowed down and intensified dumping nearly two feet on some parts of the regio

this event is stronger and further east plus we have 30 years of warming on top of it. come on man

Yep. I said as much in the MA forum the other day. I know how it rolls down here.

my point exactly. the pac jet wouldn't allow for any cold highs where we needed them

1997-1998 was more favorable early on because it was unique in the sense that occurred during a strong easterly QBO in conjunction with the low and ascending portion of the solar cycle. This season will undoubtedly be more hostile early on, but probably more favorable later in the season given the westerly QBO/descending solar that is far more common during intense episodes of warm ENSO.

whatever you need to tell yourself

Wonder if you can even call that a halfacane, maybe thirdacane?

Their expected rainfall for PA has been reduced on each of the last 4 cycles they've put out. Discouraging. Yesterday morning, the entire southern half of PA was in the 1.5"+ area. (purple shading)

How did this one work out in SNE?

I'm surprised, usually low pressure over SE Canada works out well on the east coast.

drip drop

all rain