All Activity

Here’s my current NWS forecast low for Nov 11th:MONDAY NIGHT CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 30.- If this verifies, it would be the earliest freeze at KSAV since the 11/7 32 low of 2010-If it gets down to the predicted 30, that would be the coldest so early in the season since way back in 1976! https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=chs

The Color Purple (Monday)

Here’s my current NWS forecast low for Nov 11th:MONDAY NIGHT CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 30.- If this verifies, it would be the earliest freeze at KSAV since the 11/7 32 low of 2010-If it gets down to the predicted 30, that would be the coldest so early in the season since way back in 1976! https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=chs

The point is they should have to at least get pushback from those who haven’t lost their mind and moral compass. Everywhere. Yes here. At the grocery store. The library. These scumbags shouldn’t be able to go anywhere without being told what disgusting monsters they are. The worst part of the disgusting blatant bigotry that’s been all over recently is that often there isn’t even any pushback. Things that would have been the top story on the news 10 years ago with some headline like “Congressman posts Islamophobic video” gets no reaction at all. They are pushing what should be unacceptable behavior into the mainstream. And if I can’t change their mind they should at least see the disgust and outrage at their behavior everywhere they go. There should be no safe haven for these disgusting pieces of shit. This is actually how we got into this mess. IMO society made 2 huge mistakes. First too many people assumed progress was some linear thing and not circular. They assumed we had won the war to some extent v some of this. We relaxed. But in reality these things are human nature to some extent and if we don’t do the work of vigorously fighting all forms of bigotry it will come back. And at the same time the internet came along and provided a bullhorn and a safe space to rally for these human garbage cans. And way too many people ignored what was going on. Left the forums because it was disgusting. Said “that’s just radicals online, not real”. But it’s real. There is a person somewhere behind each of those toxic comments. And we gave them a space to spew their hate and grow their ideology.

Yes it’s elevated, as is eatons neck

With the big warm up inbound later next week I'd really love to hold off on turning the heat on until we get into a more consistent colder weather pattern. Monday/Tuesday next week will be a challenge to accomplish that. Though, only one night of sub-freezing temps are expected locally.

That I do like to see.

How many times have we heard that in recent years…

Why has BOX had a map of recent snowfall reports on its point and click pages the past few days?

We’re in NYC and hope there it holds off until midnight and is out by Saturday mid am. Sunday looks wet, unfortunately.

Slightly above average snow and slightly below average temperatures is bold for this era.

From the latest NWS discussion: (snip) .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Large scale troughing will persist over the eastern CONUS through the first half of next week. This troughing will be reinforced by a powerful cold front Sunday. The amount of available moisture is somewhat in question. There is the potential for showers or even a few low-topped gusty thunderstorms, but overall rainfall amounts look light (0.25" or less). The bigger story will be the cold airmass in the wake of this front. Temperatures are likely to fall below freezing west of I-95 amid northwest breezes by early Monday morning, with 20s expected over the higher elevations. Wind chills likely dip to near or below freezing areawide by daybreak Monday, with teens or even single digits above zero for wind chills on the higher peaks. The chill will continue during the day Monday as cold air advection continues. Despite breaks of sun and downsloping west/northwest winds, high temperatures probably won`t escape the 40s on Monday, and may remain in the 20s and 30s for the higher elevations. Combined with the wind, it will probably feel more like the 30s all day (teens/20s for the higher elevations). A widespread freeze is expected Monday night into Tuesday morning. This would end the growing season where it remains active along the I-95 corridor. Similarly cool high temperatures are forecast for Tuesday, with moderating temperatures by Wednesday. Although most of the area will remain dry, the first accumulating upslope/mountain snow event is looking increasingly likely for areas along and west of the Allegheny Front Sunday night through Tuesday. It is too soon to speculate on specific amounts, but the potential is there for the season`s first plowable snow. (snip)

Outside of the lake affect-NW Ohioian here-do you think the more southerly track of the AI models has any merit with regards to the synoptic event. They've done pretty well this Summer and Fall.

Curious to see if these new AI models, and their more southern tracks, win out on this one?? Very consistent and did well this Summer and Fall...

Hopefully it's a trendsetter

yes

but, would it be?

Also if I did decide to pay for a weather site which one is the consensus pick?

Can someone post snow maps for the 6z Euro run? Seems like even UVA might get a dusting from it?

I think the cold is locked in at this point regardless of models. My NWS point forecast has zero snow at all Sunday or Monday, but an overnight low of 23 Monday night. Brrr.

To be entirely honest I’m not sure save him fully torching (pun intended) the banner thread what it would be worth banning him over when we have let people stay who add way less value while they bring up climate skepticism whenever they can

Wow-Stony Brook 70mph, but isn’t that elevated at 100 feet above ground?

Seems like most long range guidance is very bullish on a lot of Atlantic blocking going into December, so as long as we can at least get a serviceable Pacific, it could be a favorable setup.

It was a beautiful November day coming up yesterday and it’s been fun seeing our first snow of the season this morning!

Hey Don, Thanks for clarifying. The 1+2 anomalies are found at this ERSST monthlies link that has the four Nino anomalies (warning: these are all based on 1991-2020 anomalies rather than being based on moving base periods): https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii