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Flakes a flying in Exton! I have a family funeral Tuesday so yeah I am planning on a 3-6" event which will be fun to walk through the cemetery in nice shoes.

With temps along 95 being below 32F before sunrise and maybe 1" of snow falling, there could be accumulation on roads which impacts the morning rush hour before temps go above 32F and precip changes to rain and the indirect sun aids in melting.

Yep the gefs has been awful

Yeah we just had wildfires up here the past few weeks as it's gotten too dry. Getting into a drought this time of year isn't ideal but luckily the weather doesn't may any attention to our wants lol.

Temp down to 33

I thought the Euro looked pretty good. Yeah some cold rain now but the pattern is ripe to go colder with snow as we get further into December.

NWS isnt as enthused as we are. Not surprised its a tricky set up and very progressive.

Normally I would agree, but we are in a drought around me. We seriously need some rain.

Certainly could. I expect SN to start here…maybe some light accums. 3k is all snow for Gene.

Records: Highs: EWR: 71 (1991) NYC: 70 (1991) LGA: 70 (1991) JFK: 64 (2005) Lows: EWR: 16 (1976) NYC: 5 (1875) LGA: 18 (1976) JFK: 19 (1976) Historical: 1875 - A severe early season cold wave set November records in the northeastern U.S. The temperature dipped to 5 above zero at New York City, 2 below at Boston MA, and 13 below at Eastport ME. (David Ludlum) 1896: The southern Plains and upper Midwest was experiencing a brutally severe cold wave. Pokagama Dam, MN dropped to -43°. Daily record lows for the date included: Havre, MT: -30°, Grand Forks, ND: -25°, Williston, ND: -24°, Fargo, ND: -24°, Bismarck, ND: -21°, Duluth, MN: -20°, Lander, WY: -19°, Huron, SD: -17°, Valentine, NE: -15°, Sioux Falls, SD: -12°, Pueblo, CO: -10°, Minneapolis, MN: -10°, Norfolk, NE: -10°, Scottsbluff, NE: -10°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1898: Boston, Massachusetts on the 30th had the greatest snow depth for November of 16 inches. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events) 1925:An extremely rare late November hurricane began to affect the west coast of Florida as it strengthened during the day. The storm made landfall very early on December 1st south of Tampa Bay, weakened to a tropical storm as it crossed central Florida, and exited around St. Augustine. The storm regained Hurricane strength off Jacksonville late on the 1st. Heavy rain continued over northeast Florida on the 2nd. Gale force winds were reported from the Keys to Jacksonville and over 50 people lost their lives, mostly on ships at sea. Damage along the coast south of Jacksonville was heavy and excessive rain and wind seriously damaged citrus and truck crops. 1929: Lowest minimum temperature for Washington, DC in November (11°)(Ref. Washington Weather Records) Richmond, Virginia had a high temperature for the day of 24 °F making it the coldest November day on record (records since 1897).(Ref. Richmond Weather Records) 1957 - Lee slope winds enhanced by Hurricane Nina gusted to 82 mph at Honolulu, Hawaii, a record wind gust for that location. Wainiha, on the island of Kauai, was deluged with 20.42 inches of rain, and 35 foot waves pounded some Kauai beaches, even though the eye of the hurricane was never within 120 miles of the islands. (30th-1st) (The Weather Channel) 1963: Boston, Massachusetts on the 29th and 30th had a southerly storm that created high waves and abnormal storm surge tides (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events) 1964: An upper level trough and arctic surface high pressure brought extreme cold to the Plains and Midwest. Locations reporting record low November temperatures included: Minneapolis, MN: -17°, Blair, WI: -8°, Minneapolis, MN: -3° and St. Louis, MO: 1°. Other daily record lows included: International Falls, MN: -27°, Aberdeen, SD: -27°, Bismarck, ND: -25°, Duluth, MN: -23°, Huron, SD: -21°, Sioux Falls, SD: -17°, Norfolk, NE: -15°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1967 - A record November snowstorm struck the Washington D.C. area. It produced up to a foot of snow in a 12 hour period. (David Ludlum) 1967: Record Nov. snowstorm: 6.9 ins. at DCA, 8.4 inches at BWI, 11.4 ins. at Dulles. A record November snowstorm struck the Washington, DC area. It produced up to a foot of snow in a 12-hour period. (David Ludlum) 1970: High winds blasted the Colorado Rockies into the eastern Plains. A wind gust of 112 mph was recorded at the National Center for Atmospheric Research and 96 mph at the National Bureau of Standards in Boulder, CO. Downtown Boulder recorded a gust to 76 mph. The high winds caused widespread property damage; including roofs, signs, trees and power lines. Blowing dust reduced visibility to near zero across most of eastern Colorado. Several mobile homes, campers and semis were blown off the highway north of Denver. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1976 - MacLeod Harbor, AK, reported a precipitation total for November of 70.99 inches, which established a state record for any month of the year. (The National Weather Summary) One of the coldest Novembers on record ended with a blast of arctic air that dropped low temperatures well below zero across the northern Plains to below freezing all the way to the Gulf Coast. Locations reporting their all-time November record lows included: Jump River, WI: -31°, Medford, WI: -19° and Necedah, WI: -19°. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1981: This was the driest November at National Airport. 0.29 inches, Dulles 0.24 inches; BWI lowest min. for Nov. 30, 1929 was (11 °F). (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA) A major winter storm rocked eastern sections of South Dakota and northern Iowa through December 1st. The storm began as rain and then changed to freezing rain and sleet before becoming all snow. Winds gusted to over 50 mph producing blizzard conditions. Snow accumulations in southeast South Dakota were generally 8 to 12 inches with 4 to 8 inches across northwest Iowa. In portions of north central Iowa a heavy build-up of ice from the freezing rain combined with strong winds CAUSING POWER LINES TO BOUNCE 4 TO 6 FEET SNAPPING LINES and breaking insulators resulting in numerous power outages. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1985: Freezing rain and thunder-snow affected many portions of Oklahoma. Winter storm warnings, severe thunderstorm warnings, and tornado watches were all issued for portions of southern Oklahoma, with golf ball size hail reported in Duncan at a temperature of 33°. This day was also known as the DAY OF THE ICE BOWL , as the Oklahoma Sooners and Oklahoma State University played each other in Stillwater, on a virtual skating rink at Lewis Field. Further north 5 to 12 inches of snow fell across parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin. Local amounts included: Ontario, WI: 11 inches, Hokah, MN: 8 inches and Austin, MN: 6 inches. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1987 - Showers produced heavy rain in the northeastern U.S. Up to three inches of rain drenched the Brandywine Creek Basin of Pennsylvania, and rainfall totals in Vermont ranged up to two inches at Dorsett. Snow fell heavily across Upper Michigan as gale force winds prevailed over Lake Superior. A storm moving into the northwestern U.S. produced gale force winds along the northern and central Pacific coast. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Snow in the Upper Great Lakes Region pushed the precipitation total for the month at Marquette, MI, past their previous November record of 7.67 inches. Santa Anna winds in southern California gusted to 75 mph at Laguna Peak. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Squalls produced heavy snow in the Lower Great Lakes Region, with 15 inches reported at Chaffee, NY, and at Barnes Corners NY. Tropical Storm Karen drenched parts of Cuba with heavy rain. Punta Del Este reported fourteen inches of rain in 24 hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1991: The total snowfall for Minneapolis/St Paul, MN for this month was 46.9 inches, making November 1991 the snowiest November on record. The old record was 30.4 inches set in 1983. The 46.9 inches for the month broke an even bigger record as this total was the greatest monthly snowfall of any month. The old all-time monthly snowfall record was 46.4 inches for January 1982. To put this in perspective, the total snowfall for the season so far, since October, was 55.1 inches. The normal total for the entire winter season is 49.2 inches. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1992: The 1988 record didn't last long as 146 tornadoes were reported across the U.S. to set a new November record. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1996: A winter storm dumped 4 to 10 inches of snow over northwest Oklahoma. The next day, skies were sunny, and temperatures across most of the state warmed up into the lower 50s. However, temperatures across the snow covered areas only warmed into the upper 30s. Butler reached 52, while 27 miles to the northwest, Putnam struggled to reach 39. This is a typical example of how the effects of snow cover can result in drastic temperature differences over short distances. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2006: Widespread freezing rain and sleet affected many locations in central Illinois west of I-57, changing to snow overnight and into the morning of December 1st. Eight counties reported heavy sleet ranging in depth from a half to 2.2 inches. The heaviest snow occurred along and west of the Illinois River, where snow amounts were 8 to 18 inches. Areas east of the Illinois River, especially along the I-55 corridor, had snow amounts ranging from 3 to 8 inches on top of the ice and sleet. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2009: The Richmond International Airport November rainfall was 9.60 inches and breaks the previous wettest November record of 7.64 inches set in 1959. (112 years of records) Richmond, Virginia Climate Extremes updated for 2010

First car and roof topper!

Amazing

Final burst, almost over, gave a covering on the roofs and mulch. Can't help but feel good about this winter in light of what modeling, short, medium, and long range are showing.

The 11/30 0z and 6z GEFS has returned to a warmer outlook for much of North America after December 10th. It offers a credible alternative scenario. I'm still going with the EPS/ECMWF weeklies, as the GEFS has shown inconsistency. Moreover, the size of the rebound in temperatures (December 11-20 vs. December 1-10) would be both extreme and rare. Nevertheless, a look at the alternative scenario is still in order as a muted variation is plausible. The GEFS's development of a fairly strong PNA- is the key variable differentiating it from the colder baseline idea shown on the EPS. The latest two cycles of the GEFS show the development of a WPO-/EPO+/AO-/PNA- pattern. The GEFS maps are consistent with the largest cluster for the December 5-15 period (39%) of cases. WPO-/EPO+/AO-/PNA- Maps (Largest December 5-15 cluster): 500 mb Height Anomalies: Temperature Anomalies: GEFS (11/30 6z cycle): Days 11-15: 500 mb Height Anomalies (5-day average): Temperature anomalies (5-day average):

Hard to believe it’s not even december yet. Feels good to have frozen and be tracking multiple threats. Sleet continues, 33.8

Idk about 3-5. I think 2-4 is a safe bet with 4 at the high end. Also Ritual sorry about your dog. Its tough losing a dog. Especially since they become part of the family.

We ended up with our first 0.1" closer to Linglestown!

36 / 28 clouds and some light rain showers to the west. Nov will end on a cold note and push much of the location below normal with some near or slightly above. Overall colder period the next 10 days with the first storm threat looking to target areas N+W with mix/snow and mix to rain here. Next weekend Dec 5-6 should see the next threat as trough deepens. Very cold air to our north and west comes in waves of very - much below normal day or two. Brunt of the cold stays into the GL/NE.

3.9” at MSP 6.5” WFO Chanhassen. Measuring approximately 4.5” imby. Great spread the wealth event for our subforum.

WORST…WINTER…EVER!!! I’d rather have an all out torch than get d*** teased like that.

Okay it’s sticking. So exciting!