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Septorcher 2026 Discussion - Endless Summer
kdxken replied to Damage In Tolland's topic in New England
Try the raindrop app. -
Not to that degree, no...that is why I am wondering if adds more Modoki influence versus MC influence relative to the east-based-super composite.
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Septorcher 2026 Discussion - Endless Summer
kdxken replied to Damage In Tolland's topic in New England
Correct it's not the amount of acorns. It's the size of the squirrels that dictate snowfall. -
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Septorcher 2026 Discussion - Endless Summer
tunafish replied to Damage In Tolland's topic in New England
0.66" here* *Asked the wife to check/empty the gauge for me when she went out for the chicks. When I later asked her for the total she went blank. And 0.66" was the best she could guess. Unfortunately it's double any nearby station. I've seen that happen, legitimately, but looking at the radar overnight, it doesn't really support that. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Hitting my the top end of my 2.4 to 2.6 range... -
November 18, 2026
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Latest 10 day CFSv2 ens mean for RONI shows the downward trend continuing: note for SON through NDJ how much lower are the blue lines (the most recent 8 members) vs the red lines (the earliest 8 members): -
This has been our pattern since March. Ridge out West builds east from time to time. With the warm ups being stronger than the cool downs which followed.
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Are there temp and snowfall maps for 82-83/97-98? Well, I know the temp maps are out there.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
The just released WCS daily PDO for yesterday was up to -0.58! They haven’t been this high since way back in late June. It has risen ~1.07 over just the last 10 days. It had dipped to as low as -2.19 on Aug 1st. In case anyone is wondering, it hasn’t been red since it went barely positive on ~6 dates between 3/31/25 and 4/19/25 (highest was ~+0.08 on 4/5/25). One can also see it barely missed going red on 3/1/26. But unlike then and Mar-Apr of ‘25, there’s obviously now a supportive for a higher PDO full fledged very strong Nino: -
Septorcher 2026 Discussion - Endless Summer
#NoPoles replied to Damage In Tolland's topic in New England
July giving you the FU finger -
The only thing I am sure of is it will probably act much closer to 82-83/97-98 than it will 15-16 and 23-24, those last 2 just had numerous oddities that more resembled La Ninas, there is probably no chance that is happening this time, especially since the last 2 winters showed signs of moving away from that pattern we had been seeing for the previous 5-6 winters.
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- Today
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I got ~0.6” 9-10AM from a nice batch of convection moving NNE over almost the entire SAV area.
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SPC has a green check mark day 1 marginal risk out today just for 5% damaging winds stalled frontal boundary shenanigans .
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Not even fall yet, and 2021 was pretty warm so we'll see.
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Warmest fall on record looks likely
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
1973 is the one I don't like, but I don't expect the strongly +AO that that season had...even NAO maybe more favorable. Biggest issue here maybe the ridge suppressing storms at times. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I’d love this combination for the SE US! -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Looks to be slightly less MC influence than 2016. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
michsnowfreak replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
A +1.5C (+2.7F) winter in Detroit is a DJF temp of 31.1F. A -1.0C (-1.8F) winter in Houston is a DJF temp of 53.4F. I better pack my cowboy boots and hat now -
I expect some 2019 records get broken in a few places. Fortunately looks like it’ll retrograde back west soon after so I don’t see persistence of the heat as much as that year
