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The Op Euro still does seem to do wild stuff at times, especially the 18Z runs, the 06z I seem to notice it less but its been noticeable that its wacky at times at 18z to me. I don't see that issue as much anymore with the NAM/RGEM. I see it with the GFS at times but way less than we'd see 15-20-25 years ago.

Scooter and Jr both sleeping naked tonight?

There is only one model showing the coastal bombing and tucking and that (gfs) gives me 1.5 qpf. I’ll be just fine if that happens! But unless you’re in ocean city nothing else is even close with the CCB associated precip. Do I want the gfs to be right YES. But since that’s very unlikely, even now, I’m rooting for what is the better way more probable path to snow. The better trend on the other 18z guidance was enough to enhance the IVT with a close coastal but make no mistake without the IVT we are still always from all other guidance showing a hit from the actual miller b. We’d need another 2 shifts like the one we just for. Possible but rare I’ve seen the kind of amplification adjustment we need in the dozens of times we’ve been in this exact spot But that IVT can train moisture in off the developing coastal I’ve seen that happen way more often.

Just give me 6” from the IVT and satisfied as could be.

https://www.noaa.gov/jetstream/time

Well, that sounds good. How the hell is are models caving to the GFS???

It did, not all the way but a huge shift.

Need the whole 0z suite united in conformity before disrobing.

"Glue Factory" to "Save a horse".

It's still not the GFS but everybody who said that the GFS was impossible I guess has to say it's not impossible now. Own it! Lol

It caved alot at h5. Eps is doing the same.

Stand by

the AIFS doing what it did gives more confidence that the euro shift is legit but we will obv want to see it hold at 00z

Euro way north

Is there any legitimacy to the 18z runs not being as accurate?

Euro eps is phasing more of the northern stream like the gfs is.

I'm not out or downing the threat by any means, but show me the Euro suite doing this for consecutive runs and then we can talk.

I honestly expected the maps to look a good better than they do. The AI Euro was definitely wetter.

Everyone here secretly, or openly, roots for their backyard to get the most. I want Randy and h2o and my area to always get the most. lol give me a mega band and a good book.

Yeah you know, Off hr runs and all.

Yeah I have to see a GFS hold and another Euro shift to the west.

EPS is phasing at 51!

Aifs looks good, but will legacy euro follow?

It ain't over or decided yet of course (but I know you know that!)...however, I have to feel a bit more confident in a solid warning-level snowfall at this point. Obviously the crazy GFS amounts are just that...crazy...but I like seeing the Euro edge in that direction (as well as the Euro/GFS AI versions). Now, can we get the Hessian and Canuck models to concur, LOL!!!

January 2000 levels of caving