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It stalls near Salisbury for like 30 hrs.

Not really it just can't figure out how much phasing happens. Other models did slowly trend towards it too

I’m not sold on Ai solution. Something like the Euro OP makes more sense to me. Still, weird to see changes this much at 72 hours, goes to show you how fragile this phase is

Tera Hote?

This morning's rocket launch:

Time to reopen the thread. Not sure what was the point in closing it.

Great signals for last half of February on guidance across the board including ensembles and AI This winter has a sneaky epic vibe I'll be out of town with the kids for school vacation week next week... perfect timing not to miss the potential ahead

Its been so bad and inconsistent with this event I'd probably toss it

Yeah it's worth looking at. The slight difference in phasing makes all the difference.

snowfall accums are paltry even at the m/d line, but it's better

For kicks and giggles

EURO/AIFS bring accumulating snow Sunday night to south shore , that was a huge jump on both models

Nice tic, but the fallacy may be to assume AI tics its way to the right solution like the physics models do:

@bncho you have a euro map?

This is an example of why there are so many varied opinions and grades on this winter so far. Just like real estate, everything is local. For instance, while Rockford IL had a really good 10-day period early on (around 15”), the snow depth was 0-1” from 12/13 through the end of the month, including a brown Christmas. After the good early period, there has only been 6” of snow between 12/11 and today (nearly 9 weeks), with the highest depth 2” and most days with either bare spots or completely bare ground. That’s not good. If the early snowfall would have stayed deep, then the tiny amounts of snow over the next several weeks would have been ok, especially given the recent cold. But it seems nearly impossible to combine snow with cold. Same theme as always - SDDs matter. And we keep getting frustrated on that metric, at least on this side of the lake. I know some areas had a few LE events, but not material enough to make an impact on SDDs and the look and feel…plus not everyone experienced good LE to begin with. The dreaded NW flow chinook pattern, where the angle of the cold is wrong and nearly everyone suffers. It’s the persistent theme in these parts, where there have been favorable periods in recent winters, but the non-favorable periods are a disaster. It’s all or nothing. It would be nice if the non-favorable periods were at least decent (say 2-4” of snow each week at a minimum), solely due to the calendar. Plus it hurt us this winter because the good period occurred so early in the season, that the snow melted from below because the ground was too warm. Ugh. But it was definitely fun to take a Jeb walk in the -10F air in January. So the winter hasn’t been all bad, just feels like a missed opportunity for a really solid winter.

Now that's the spirit! I see you are coming around.

are you buying it?

AI generated porn

Blizzard Time

AIFS has been really interested in Feb 24. I’m calling it the @Maestrobjwastorm

Yeah too different at h5 to just be a broadness thing. Guess we’ll see if it’s on to something soon enough. FWIW the deterministic euro also put the energy much closer to phasing. Just not as much.

We snow!