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It doesn't even flip on LI (at least on those Pivotal p-type maps). Rare but not unheard of. Reminds me of 2-13-14.

Dangerous to buy into the NAM trend, but it was within its range (60hr) when it spaced the NS and SS waves apart and strengthened confluence. We'll see if other models do the same and backtrack its NW trend.

Yes orange county winter climo is closer to Albany then to NYC lol even though it's way closer geographically to NYC.

Yeah, any weaker/more easterly northern wave helps reduce chances of a GGEM scenario.

Retake

The 18z NAM is colder as well. If you switch to run-2-run for temp changes...you can see the cold actually rotate down in front of the high and into the front side of the incoming storm. Starts about hour 36. You can see it warmup over the top of the storm as in rolls across the US.

According to the EPS mean, there is a definite indication of a MAJOR coastal low pressure center near the latitude of the Mid-Atlantic to Southern New England areas. The evidence that the ensemble members are plotting closely together shows that the group appears willing to evolve toward a coastal redevelopment or borrowed coastal system as opposed to working directionally inland. The Normalized Spread of the ensemble members indicates a low degree of spread across the Northeast region as indicated by the region of North and Central New Jersey and a decreasing amount of uncertainty narrowing in New York City. The greatest area of spread, i.e., the west and south of the city, indicates the confidence level for the track is very high. This also indicates mid-level pattern evolution will transfer to the surface of the climate system in an uncomplicated fashion. The ensemble indicates the same path of motion that has been forecasted by the H5 atmosphere since prior to multiple computer models becoming consistent at the H5, including last night's European model update. At this time the only remaining questions are how much water will fall within the axial centerline of maximum impact and when will maximum rainfall occur. This is why we chase storms all winter. Why we stay up until 3 am refreshing, analyzing. All because of storms like this.

Yasssssss!

We're going to get a G-IV high altitude Recon mission tomorrow evening!

Color me shocked this went that far north but the fact the key southern disturbance was coming in from basically Mars and another piece from NW Canada I guess I should be less shocked. That said this is still a bit early so there may be corrections back the other way the next 2 days

Need that finger of precip to be pointed a little further south!

These panels showing the onset of the snow just hitting us - with precip still in Texas and west, and no mixing until you pass Virginia - are just beautiful

Hopefully someone that knows what they are talking about will see your questions and answer them, but I think confluence has to do with how tightly the streamlines are spaced on a weather map. The more tightly space (higher confluence) the more likelihood of precipitation and storm enhancement. So, when we heard in the main thread someone saying that confluence looked lower, that is a good thing for this specific storm because if it gets too juiced up, the primary low is more likely to go more north into the Ohio valley, and bring in more warm air aloft over us. Now someone can correct me. Except @bncho. He's on my sh&t list for calling me old.

It’s already over and he failed lol

certainly seems farther north than the gfs with a more eastern weighted shield. Waiting for reggie for comparison

not if the precip comes in like a wall like most models are depicting.

Would a set up like this cause thundersnow?

For the most part when people refer to us in this forum they are referring to immediate NYC Metro. This storm could be drastically different in Toms River vs Monroe but that's typically the case.

What I'm really interested in monitoring in modeling over the next couple days, outside of the typical synoptic features: 1. How does the heavy WAA banding translate northeastward towards SE PA? Does it weaken as the primary dies off and the coastal transfer occurs, or does it plow through the area with vigor? 2. Where do our DGZ layers (could be more than one) set up and do we have any deep omega through these layers? Even if the surface is frigid, poor snow growth could still occur if the omega and DGZ do not align. 3. Where the 700mb FGEN band sets up on models, because IRL it almost always ends up further north

One big takeaway I see on the 18z NAM is the delay of the precipitation onset. Just three runs ago at 7AM EST Saturday, precipitation was streaking into east TN, sw VA, and western NC. This made sense to me from an overrunning perspective, usually faster return flow and further north than modeled. Current run has precip barely making it into central Arkansas by 12z Saturday. What's a 700 mile difference between friends? lol

It looked it at hr84.

Yeah, weird for sure. The last several years, in fact, anytime a polar vortex lobe breaks off and heads south in North America, it seems like the axis is always between 75 and 95 W. That's a pretty narrow band. I wonder why. Incidentally, that is probably the largest winter storm watch I've ever seen in terms of sheer land area.

and a very wide range of weather conditions usually in that 75 mile radius because of the terrain and ocean

Local 3 in Chattanooga BAMS

Don’t you have a test to study for or something? Lol