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Snow has melted except some piles and patches (patches will be gone by later). First time the ground is bare since November 28th. Not a fan. But not unexpected. Fun fact...this is my 31st winter measuring snow. The season with the most days with 1"+ snowcover was 2013-14 with 96 days and the least was 2023-24 with 18 days. The average is around 50 days. So far in 2025-26, I have 21 days, meaning I surpassed 2023-24 before the Winter Solstice.

Hope I'm wrong but I am just not seeing more than another transient shot of cold from the -NAO (with no subtropical jet which means its probably going to be dry) followed by more meh as the NAO goes back to neutral or positive. I probably sound like a broken record but without the Pacific calming down for more than a couple days, its going to be extremely hard to get winter storm threats.

I'd like to underscore this sentiment here This cold over last 4 to 6 weeks, folks are being victimized by an unusual front performing temperature result. How? It's falsely elevating expectations. As an aside, while that was happening ... the footprint of the actual circulation mode ( blocking over top compression at 40 N) never was that good for actual storm growth. But the cold just kept refilling. It started with west oriented -NAO about 5 weeks back. That faded while almost seamlessly, perhaps a retrograde even, the -EPO arrived... Truth is, Will's spectacularly correct in this idea above. When the cold spigot shuts off, there is a reality about the world we live in that we've only had a hiatus from. It go the other direction at least to climate thaw range, but most likely, that range + a synergistic value that is ... mm something that people want to fight about rather than think about so I won't bother.

Meanwhile PNA looks to stay negative the entire month, with some signs of another deep tank headed into January

You handled that a whole lot better than I would have. First, a "period" of hot/cold/warm weather is not a day. That's just silly. Second, it's kind of a weak-sauce torch to begin with. Temps much of the afternoon tomorrow are going to be very close to normal, falling below normal by sunset.

Was just going to post on that. Some of the soundings are pretty impressive I'm also curious about the potential for some squalls to fire up later in the afternoon.

But look how fast its going back to neutral. EPS shows this as well and had a quick cool (not even cold) shot then back to average or above by the end of the period.

She’s a very kinky girl?

Going back to the topic of NWS cutbacks, is that the reason NWS Taunton doesn't have the links to Climate/Hurricanes/River etc anymore at the bottom of the forecast pages? Ridiculous.

Pribula on the move again: https://www.ydr.com/story/sports/college/penn-state/football/2025/12/18/former-penn-state-football-qb-beau-pribula-to-transfer-from-missouri/87819340007/

Bipolar crowd today....we had a decent December with sustained cold and some snow, even if nothing else happens before NY. Models are struggling with the pattern and we will have to wait to see what happens in January....BUT unlike a lot of years there is a lot of cold air lurking not too far to the North. Patience....

18z Nam shows just that. Almost like a WF moving in with kink in isobars at 15z.

Very interesting archived forecast. Is this information publicly-accessible and, if so, do you have a link?

Going to be an interesting day for sure.

I'm sensing a recurring theme there where the AI interpretations are always slightly to moderately "better" ( referring to winter enthusiast lensing - ) than whatever the operational non-AI tenor of that run cycle is. I'd like to know how these Artificial Intelligentsia model variations are actually constructed - how/what is/are processing. It seems to me there might be some climate tainting the AI ... like part of what it does ( just pure speculation here - ) is factor in all inputs that might be factored, like at all ..., and if climate from 1980 is involved in that, it would be bad. The other thing is I don't mean to impugn the AI modeling technology. It's fledgling and probably primitive - obviously - for having just recently been invented. 10 years from now, who knows. It's a journey that's probably got to be made full of the usual peregrinations of successes and failures along the way... all that. How have the AI models done up to this point in time, this year? I don't really count last year - I don't think. It was just too primitive and sparsely existing. But now there appears to be an actual competitive market getting going so it should be time to compare verification and scoring

BOX upgraded srn RI and along cstl MA to HWW. But imho, that logic should include the rest of SE MA

Yup. going backwards

Yeah, I see him on the AFD's for up here.

You can see the temps bounce up and down on the hrrr. Almost looks like a batch of heavy rain late morning ahead of LLJ core and then more scattered after until fropa. Any breaks in between and sky brightness will help boost temps a tick or two. Hrrr is like 61 here lol.

3" depth 48F

Still have to watch though because if its just a non stop rain with no break between the initial area and line ahead of the front, gusts will be greatly diminished. It looks like the window for gusts 50-60+ is going to be relatively small and might end up being something more localized versus widespread. If there is a break between the initial area and incoming line, it will absolutely rip for a few hours

The modeling (ensembles/operationals) this afternoon is showing a decidedly east-based -NAO going into the beginning of January, also still holding on to the -PNA as well. If the true east-based -NAO is correct, it would be quite the change from what we have seen over the last 10 years or so with -NAO’s,

At least seven straight year of it raining at some point on NYE! Last time it snowed, I believe, was 2009.