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The pattern isn’t unprecedented, but in the context of climate change, it’s hard not to look at things like this as previews of the future. Notice you said this is warmer and more persistent than 1917…as the years go by, these kinds of patterns will get more and moreso, until voila! Eventually a month like this won’t even be that out of the ordinary.

It’s been 9 degrees above average here, do you really think winters will warm up that much before 2250?

To me he's noise at this point when he's discussing cold. It's when he starts throwing in the towel that I pay attention.

I hadn't forgotten 2022; it's what I had in mind when I mentioned the sharp but transient cold. Now maybe I'm being a little unfair to it because it wasn't a one-day wonder as most of that week was bitter. And I enjoyed it thoroughly. But there was clearly no hope of any storm activity and at the time we knew it was limited duration and we could see the suck barreling down on us like a freight train. We didn't know that it was going to last the rest of the winter though.

Congrats. You're the first to mention the possibility of punting til early February. You must be a real blast at parties.

It’ll delay my flight back somehow so it’s guaranteed to happen.

While we wait for the next snow... Note: All photos were taken at the New York Botanical Garden on December 14, 2025.

I dont think it will . We shall see.

1-3, 2-4" type deal for CNE/NNE, Holding off on the IVT developing for now.

Add Dec 2022 to that. The holidays was downright arctic. We all know what happened after that.

I’m in Austin currently and flying back on Tuesday so part of me doesn’t want this to happen, but if it does and we can secure the White Christmas great. Somehow through a miracle my flight took off yesterday even though the first 15 minutes were pretty white knuckle. Wearing shorts and temp around 70, 70s expected for the rest of my time here.

Sure. Living in NC my whole life I'm no stranger to Christmas torches. But the consistency of the late December torch is beginning to be very troubling to me. It seems to be getting beyond the point of bad luck and to the point, "is there something going on here"? The beginning of the month has been variable: some years are torches, some years have been quite cold (like this year), but some point between 12/1 and 12/15 we see a bad look appear at 384 and march majestically through to validation and the entire holiday period is spent squinting at model noise trying to will a flip into existence, Interestingly it hasn't been the same mechanism of failure. Some years it's an AK trough bringing Pac Puke. Some years it's SER with a western trough. This year is more of a NW trough with a CONUS-wide ridge. I guess the common thread is the Pacific but the variance makes me wonder even more. I will admit that the bad periods have also not been monolithic: several have had notable sharp frontal passage with non-trivial cold. But in every case I can think of, the cold has been either transient, or completely surface-based, with no support in the higher portions of the atmosphere. Honest question to everyone: when is the last time anyone can remember when we had a good, or even "pretty good" pattern either in place or imminent between 12/20 and 12/31? The closest I can remember would be 2017. It turned cool on Christmas and then ended up bitterly cold the last few days of the year and the first few days of 2018. That was great for cold lovers (like me) but still not a snow pattern for most. I think even 2013 had a mild holiday period. And I recall many of you bemoaning the cutter that washed away your snowpack in 2009. Are there any good holiday patterns that I am missing?

Because it has the look of struggling for an inch with a random subby hole.

you guys are spending Christmas together, aren’t you .

not according to SnowGoose - he wrote previously-- "The airmass believe it or not is better than it was with the last event. At least to start. Its 32/13 on the NAM at 12Z. The bigger risk with this is it just is largely too far north in the end."

I just got the latest dope. Significant rain is expected to impact Palisades Ops. Tahoe is getting demolished by pacific puke, in the worst way. Mid Atlantic has a statistically better chance at accumulating snows right now, than does Palisades at 9500 feet.

WB 18Z EURO stays below 50 on Christmas...

Last airmass was colder than this one .

Clear. 26.8

I wouldn't be throwing around limited numbers now - we were doing that 60 hours prior to last weekends storm and it over performed - leave all options open this far out.........

The 18z GEFSAI and EuroAI are the first ensembles for flip. Let’s see if they stay that way - much cooler since yesterday I think.

BTDT with our lateral... fine roots right at the joint between our line and the city. The one good thing to come out of it was the sudden permission to throw away anything I wanted that was down there. You should see how much... got wet. Major purge FTW!

We like things neat and clean.

Why not happy there with 1-3?

Which end? Takes time to recover from weed whacker damage