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While Canada had its coldest March since the late 1980s and Alaska back to the 2000s, the warmest CONUS March allowed North America to finish warmer than average.
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I don't understand why folks can't grasp the fact that a mere "30% chance of showers" in the p&c will trigger the rain icon in the graphics. It's really not complicated at all.
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2026-2027 El Nino
bluewave replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Even during a weak La Niña this winter, the ridges were the strongest on record compared to past weak La Niña events like 1995-1996 with -WPO /SW ridge and Greenland blocking. If we get a strong to very strong El Niño, then it could potentially lead to a stronger 500mb El Nino ridge to the north and weaker Aleutian Low and Southeast trough like 2023-2024. The exact location where the 500 mb ridge maxes out will be important. Remember how all the models underestimated the ridge and overestimated the trough. They incorrectly had the classic strong El Niño stock composite. Perhaps if the El Niño passes a certain threshold then at least the Aleutian Low and perhaps the Southeast Trough can be stronger. But we may have to wait until the winter to observe the exact response since these seasonal 500mb forecasts usually are missing some key elements. Even though several models had a -WPO and Southwest ridge for last winter, none came close to how strong it was. Climatologist49 @climatologist49.bsky.social Follow For the Dec-Mar period, the southwestern ridge reigns supreme. An area over +5 standard deviations from the 1991-2020 normal. The eastern Siberia anomaly was *only* +4.5 standard deviations. -
another beautiful day on tap to be followed by a garden variety spring soaker best climo
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Dropped down to 22. Currently 28
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Just below freezing here this am at 31.2, good bit warmer than yesterday's 27.2.
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21.9⁰ for the second morning in a row....can this be it now?
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There better be a derecho afterwards
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Min 23° That may be it for the hard freezes.
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Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Mount Joy Snowman replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Low of 30 and yesterday morning's low was actually 23. We've had full April sun the last couple days and still busted low on high temps, not something we see very often. Impressive. Going to get my first mow in after work today, assuming the mower starts ha. -
Anything in the 20s this time of year is annoying AF.
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28
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Thanks for linking that. I remember Gary at WLOS and just found out the other day he was now at Spectrum News. I was in Raleigh at the time of the storm but recall local news reports about it. Had a good sledding snow in Raleigh earlier that winter. The Concorde that was snow delayed in Asheville also flew into Raleigh. There is a YouTube video documenting the Concorde in Asheville: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DHwXblu3JGo&pp=ygUcQ29uY29yZCBmbGV3IGluIEFzaGV2aWxsZSBOQw%3D%3D
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Also, my farm sensor got below 28 for nearly 2 hours, and is still below freezing at 3.5 hours. Pretty sure that qualifies as a hard freeze. This is corroborated with the nearby Franklin county airport data though they are about a degree and a half warmer which is very typical for a radiational cooling morning and their sensor being atop a hill next to the runway. Did not expect that at all.
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Low of 35, no frost. Bye bye cold mornings!
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2025-2026 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
PNA was only positive in January, as expected. -
Undershot guidance across central NC this morning with some impressive lows in the 20s! 26.4 at my farm for the low, Henderson showing 27, Louisburg 28. 30 in Roxboro and Roanoke Rapids and 32-33 across the triangle. 32.6 at my house with frost
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Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
mahantango#1 replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I remember after the blizzard of 93 there was still a snow pile only about 4 inches deep above Millersburg on Memorial Day. That was from the snow that slid off the Mahantango Mountain along rt. 147 north of Millersburg. That pile was created by Penndot when they removed the snow on 147 that was around 10 feet deep in places on the roadway. -
So was 23-24 generally other than the one Feb storm. But it was really a Nina with an active Nino subtropical jet.
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I wish these temps continue
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25 for the low.
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25°. Coldest until next fall?
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27 here. One last night in the 20s.
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Low of 27. Currently 28.
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30 with a lot of frost.
