All Activity

I am actually pretty excited about this period coming up. If we can get the PV to cooperate and displace south we could get smashed. Big if though.

I actually just saved that graphic....lol

To me the most important thing is the spacing between the lead digging shortwave and the energy riding overtop the ridge and then dropping southward. Hard to tell on the 18z as the run ends too soon, but comparing the two my guess is it would end up a tad worse than 12z.

I think we're far enough out that people shouldn't vest one way or the other with this thing. But, we all know how it goes here.

The upper levels dont support it going negative sooner. Not saying that map is correct because it is most likely not close to what will actually happen. But there are is really no upper level jet that would cause it to wrap up. Its pretty dead up top.

Yep. I'm thinking Eps reflecting the flatter "mess" of 18z. But we're far enough out to get too concerned. We do need to see 0z come back to a stronger, more consolidated vort imho.

@mitchnick’s EPS is definitely a small step back at 18z. Only slight positive improvement is the northern stream in Canada is farther ahead than 12z. But our trough is obviously flatter.

Guys I just found this, which you may already be aware of. Is the score actually calculated as shown below? If so, it looks like it is calculated based strictly on the depth of the snow, the area of the land it covers, and the population inhabiting said land, and without regard to whether the location is within the 'northeast.' Edit: It does look like this is how the score is calculated. ChatGPT does a great job explaining this with examples. It mentions that it calibrates to account for population growth as well.

Nice soak job

I also use words like wester and swirlie thing in pbp, so yeah. Mitch is prob right.

I didn’t mean anything other than to note the big differences over a relatively short distance. Like PF always says, orographics and microclimates are so fascinating.

Find myself kinda seeing Ji's point on this one. But I don't know shit, so you're prob right. Seems as tho the swing back further west would give it more time climb closer up the coast.

For the euro and it being only 144 out that’s a pretty big difference at h5. Won’t get a good idea on the set up for another few days anyway.

Yeah, it's kinda hard to tell for me

They are interviewing everybody lol He wouldn't be awful. I prefer Klint Kubiak- young OC, comes from the Shanahan tree. Actually made Sam Darnold look good lol. His dad was a very successful OC for one season for the Ravens before moving on to coach the Broncos. I think Lamar would approve. He hated Monken.

Jeez I don’t hate the 18z gfs. The end of the run is what you like to see for a cold miller an or overrunning. Big time antecedent airmass with a nice low coming into the Plains.

10”ish in that. Great event.

https://x.com/i/status/2009414552912339173

It reads like those guys were talking about change in snow depth, not necessarily SWE. Went from 9-12” around the lower elevations from here to your area on 12/15 and ended at 2-4” on 12/20. The mountain elevations at 1500+ did see a snow depth decrease but added water and then rebuilt the depth back up rapidly. Our High Road stake dropped into the upper 40s for depth (lost a good foot during that pre-Xmas rainer) but rebounded stronger back up to low 60s again with more water than before.

Eps. 12z on top

For sure. I think lots of times we all can get hung up on this. As we all know, snowfall systems are so very nuanced, that sometimes an area(ours lately) can just get into a rut, and can continually get porked. While up steam or downstream gets slammed. It’s Just some bad dam ju ju. Eventually that will change, as it always does. And another region will spend some time in the shit barrel.

Frustratingly close but a laundry list of things needed to trend in the right direction for the 15th. Between the flow in the North Atlantic being too progressive and the trailing waves following too close to give the trough room to go negative earlier, feels like we’re fighting it from both sides to get a phase. Don’t know if there’s much of a middle ground solution here either, at least for those of us further west.

Nah, ground temps will be far too warm. We'll lose 9% to virga and 90% to 40° ground temps. Enjoy your 1% dusting.

80' would be a huge win.