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Mm ...he may partially be right ... I've been watching this and comparing it to various guidance. When this region pivots N, and it's not 'filling' in or back redeveloping as it's been pushing coherently N, it's like to shut off the spigot pretty abruptly. We lull... question is, would there then be a rejuvenation as a kind of weak easterly anomaly conveyor temporarily sets up while the filling closed low rolls underneath... ? Maybe. The NAM is paltry with that tho. And given the weakening kinematics ...that's not necessarily tossed. In other words, I can see a pathway to where your neck of the woods gets kind of shafted here https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Mid_Atlantic-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

GWDLT.

Wells and wives drying up ?

The 30-40 percent rain chances for the weekend disappeared and the 40-50 percent Monday forecast was a dud here with nothing. It's barely even thundered this spring. Crazy stuff.

Windy. Cold . Cold feeling anyway. Raw.

Sure is tough to string together a couple nice, sunny, non-windy days.

Wells drying up in TAN

Everywhere except TAN

just messing. i agree that we're probably getting a super Nino this year

Your point? All he did was post the model run

I feel that it's time that we have a real serious discussion about next week's heat potential. Some places in and around the I-95 corridor could approach near record monthly high temperatures next Tuesday, if this air mass lives up to it's full billing!

Lots of days “tanking” here too

mario ramirez super nino

All I’ve been hearing about is this big Rainer Thursday and it looks like a massive bust here, either way.

Seems like a rain event with maybe some cutover to snow briefly in some lower elevation places.

That's an understatement. Some places got almost half an inch of rain but the vegetation continues to suck it all up. Almost nothing is making it into ground water.

just some sprinkles here from time to time.

.11” so far

Yeah, WTF. Yesterday morning, ECMWF was pretty bullish while the GFS was meh except for the mountains. They seemed to have reversed positions today. Who knows if we get snow, but good moisture looks more and more likely. I'm kind of cheering for rain rather than snow. That last storm was enough for me for the (extended) season.

It will be interesting to see if Philly can record their first 3 consecutive years under 40.00” since the early 1990s . Long range precipitation forecasting is very uncertain. The hope is that the STJ can come far enough north with the developing super El Niño to increase the rainfall enough in coming months to get over 40.00” by the end of December. Many spots have been running drier than average starting with the big dip in rainfall in September into October 2024. Monthly Total Precipitation for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2026 2.84 2.24 1.90 2.11 0.37 M M M M M M M 9.46 2025 0.93 2.05 5.36 2.83 6.22 2.20 4.61 1.73 1.79 2.02 2.30 3.35 35.39 2024 5.91 1.49 7.19 4.16 1.72 4.68 2.44 5.07 0.77 T 2.52 3.45 39.40 2023 3.36 1.32 1.99 5.17 0.24 4.24 5.24 3.25 5.99 0.72 2.75 7.92 42.19 2022 3.35 2.87 2.09 4.51 4.16 5.03 2.20 2.70 2.06 5.80 2.89 4.85 42.51 2021 1.55 4.64 4.21 2.69 3.24 3.06 6.72 6.18 4.61 4.81 0.46 1.64 43.81 2020 2.64 2.46 3.94 3.75 2.20 3.21 5.54 8.53 4.23 4.09 4.79 4.38 49.76 2019 3.92 3.27 3.85 3.02 5.22 7.94 6.03 2.78 1.16 3.87 1.16 5.21 47.43 2018 2.85 6.02 4.74 3.94 5.21 3.34 3.06 4.11 9.76 3.08 9.03 6.38 61.52 2017 2.91 1.30 4.26 3.15 6.33 1.86 5.35 6.05 3.86 3.66 1.30 1.31 41.34 2016 2.63 4.36 2.01 1.75 6.65 1.87 3.88 1.70 3.52 2.06 2.17 2.72 35.32 2015 4.52 2.36 5.52 3.58 1.19 8.88 3.16 0.98 6.27 3.76 1.89 5.14 47.25 2014 3.55 5.12 4.23 6.69 2.91 5.46 4.30 3.55 1.69 2.53 4.07 3.27 47.37 2013 3.34 2.12 2.42 2.32 2.33 10.56 13.24 5.91 3.26 2.45 2.73 5.20 55.88 2012 2.59 1.84 0.79 2.55 3.35 2.94 1.48 5.37 5.48 4.08 1.05 4.42 35.94 2011 3.39 2.65 4.29 5.29 1.91 2.56 2.71 19.31 10.27 3.71 3.87 4.37 64.33 2010 2.19 5.75 7.33 2.65 2.53 2.05 6.28 2.19 3.48 5.01 1.76 3.24 44.46 2009 2.70 0.84 1.62 3.99 4.84 4.79 3.35 10.29 3.65 5.51 2.06 8.86 52.50 2008 1.74 3.93 3.67 2.19 4.55 2.87 3.45 2.44 4.31 1.59 4.02 5.57 40.33 2007 3.35 1.73 3.82 9.05 2.68 4.02 3.44 2.94 0.58 4.66 1.45 4.41 42.13 2006 4.34 1.51 0.91 3.71 2.16 7.95 4.27 3.93 5.97 6.42 4.88 2.15 48.20 2005 4.45 2.61 3.66 5.32 1.27 3.31 4.31 2.57 0.21 8.68 2.86 2.97 42.22 2004 1.70 2.50 3.54 6.02 3.62 4.57 7.91 4.17 5.19 2.24 4.55 3.17 49.18 2003 1.93 5.04 4.09 2.20 4.17 8.08 2.01 3.26 4.66 4.45 2.63 5.46 47.98 2002 2.43 0.55 4.03 2.17 3.57 3.73 2.12 2.47 3.67 5.90 4.65 4.05 39.34 2001 2.77 3.04 5.44 1.49 3.99 5.93 1.30 0.97 2.58 0.83 0.56 2.11 31.01 2000 3.22 2.02 6.32 3.05 3.03 3.82 5.54 2.90 8.28 1.51 2.21 2.82 44.72 1999 4.89 2.95 4.02 3.31 3.70 1.16 1.22 5.32 13.07 3.55 2.31 2.99 48.49 1998 4.24 3.25 3.93 2.70 3.87 4.91 1.79 1.26 1.86 1.84 1.18 0.82 31.65 1997 2.80 2.48 3.91 2.58 2.32 1.49 2.38 4.56 1.59 1.83 3.49 3.09 32.52 1996 4.39 2.12 4.27 4.48 3.25 4.73 8.17 4.29 4.95 4.30 3.03 8.47 56.45 1995 3.10 2.41 1.67 1.96 2.67 0.62 2.92 1.15 3.55 5.99 3.34 2.15 31.53 1994 4.27 3.27 6.44 2.86 3.66 1.74 10.42 4.54 1.64 0.94 3.03 2.11 44.92 1993 1.97 3.03 6.61 4.20 2.42 1.52 1.98 5.18 6.66 2.69 2.23 3.69 42.18 1992 0.88 1.31 3.19 1.26 2.74 1.84 5.05 2.00 3.04 1.23 3.26 4.61 30.41 1991 4.10 0.75 4.13 2.81 1.82 3.36 4.79 3.86 3.58 1.61 1.55 3.86 36.22 1990 4.09 1.44 2.59 3.16 6.08 3.39 2.62 4.07 1.71 1.68 1.17 3.79 35.79 1989 2.41 3.25 4.41 2.27 6.76 4.73 9.44 3.92 5.03 3.44 1.79 1.21 48.66 1988 2.72 4.11 2.24 2.92 3.67 0.57 8.07 3.16 2.62 2.16 5.17 1.00 38.41 1987 4.58 1.17 1.16 3.63 3.15 2.01 4.82 3.72 2.78 2.62 2.08 1.68 33.40 1986 4.13 3.38 1.25 4.46 0.70 1.99 4.10 3.70 2.33 2.22 6.27 5.89 40.42 1985 1.55 2.44 1.95 0.52 4.99 1.88 4.66 2.82 5.78 1.54 6.09 0.98 35.20 1984 2.22 2.81 6.14 4.25 6.87 2.85 6.99 3.28 1.96 2.56 1.56 2.17 43.66 1983 2.81 3.53 6.95 8.12 7.03 2.75 0.68 2.57 3.45 3.69 5.71 7.37 54.66 1982 4.45 3.16 2.66 6.06 4.47 5.76 1.94 2.20 2.32 1.94 3.67 1.80 40.43 1981 0.50 2.94 1.61 3.60 4.53 4.40 4.54 5.11 2.83 2.68 0.95 4.14 37.83 1980 2.27 0.96 7.01 4.79 3.22 1.73 6.58 0.80 2.79 5.03 2.85 0.77 38.80 1979 8.74 6.44 2.43 4.08 3.98 4.34 3.95 5.95 4.89 3.84 2.48 1.67 52.79 1978 8.86 1.35 4.31 1.76 6.01 1.75 5.27 6.04 1.59 1.20 2.20 5.61 45.95 1977 2.61 1.33 4.19 5.59 0.70 5.33 1.47 8.70 3.44 3.11 7.76 5.19 49.42 1976 4.50 1.66 2.38 2.06 4.35 3.42 4.04 2.17 2.44 4.30 0.32 1.63 33.27 1975 4.00 2.91 4.68 2.97 4.99 7.57 6.32 2.21 7.21 3.24 3.14 2.89 52.13 1974 2.95 2.14 4.91 2.77 3.21 4.43 2.08 3.83 4.68 1.93 0.81 4.04 37.78 1973 3.93 2.96 3.52 6.68 4.14 7.88 2.39 2.03 3.39 2.16 0.64 6.34 46.06 1972 2.34 5.09 2.69 4.08 4.11 5.79 2.62 3.76 1.12 3.77 9.06 5.20 49.63 1971 2.13 5.43 2.58 1.84 4.10 1.01 4.84 9.61 5.83 3.84 5.37 1.21 47.79 1970 0.74 2.08 3.83 6.12 2.57 4.60 2.75 3.99 0.82 3.66 4.71 3.27 39.14 1969 1.57 1.88 1.92 1.68 3.30 7.31 8.33 2.66 4.38 1.13 1.97 7.23 43.36 1968 2.90 1.40 4.98 1.57 5.17 5.89 2.00 1.24 0.44 3.15 4.17 2.54 35.45 1967 1.67 1.82 4.53 2.17 3.49 4.12 7.11 7.08 2.96 2.00 1.99 5.88 44.82 1966 2.82 4.30 0.68 4.35 2.95 0.41 2.35 1.63 8.70 5.12 2.36 4.33 40.00 1965 2.35 2.18 3.19 2.33 1.23 2.85 3.22 4.05 3.02 2.02 1.05 1.85 29.34 1964 3.92 2.83 1.94 5.27 0.47 0.21 3.83 0.49 2.42 1.73 1.64 5.13 29.88 1963 2.31 2.19 3.94 1.13 1.06 2.88 3.13 3.35 6.44 0.09 6.67 1.76 34.95

This thread should hopefully spur to life a bit with the overall longwave pattern shifting. Our good friend the WAR will be making a comeback which should open the door with better theta_E advection into the Mid Atlantic. We've been void of persistent southerly flow for a while with the NW flow regime basically a deterrent to any type of warm advection regime in this area of the country.

Mild approaching the mid 60s and dews

that's a good point. Didn't consider that. I tell you what ...I bet now that we're in the solar max we may still do better. I'll let it ride and take the hit if I'm wrong. I'm still thinking 77's doable but yeah. Part of my thinking is that we're facing a pretty significant built in correction vector, one with an explosively long room, too. As an aside, this really is an impressive wholesale change coming after tomorrow Just sayn', 2-m in NAM's 69 at ORH and 71 BED at 18z. That's garbage under near full sun and superb wind direction during a summer mixing profile. BL is gonna get tall. We all know FIT/ASH/BED are 6 F warmer than ORH in that setting. Granted MET MOS is 75 so ... it's a nerd's quibble.

.50" blockbuster