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^ There’s no way the accumulation would be that smooth west to east over the mountains. The southern apps would absolutely have to steal some of that downstream accumulation.

I’d take this and be ready for spring

We gonna talk about what the Euro AIFS just barfed out? Because it’s the most absurd clown I’ve ever seen. Even the DGEX didn’t snow porn like that. .

You're missing two zeroes after the one. But yes. 'For the board". Katie, you said you had a Ruth Chris near you? Board meeting. For the board.

All right the HOT sign is on where is them donuts!

Would definitely consider it. Wait a few days if you can though

🫡 .

Sure. I’ll send you my Venmo if so

The cold air after a storm like this would really cause some problems. Euro keeps us below freezing for a week after the storm.

Still a lot to iron out. Stick to ens trends.

Start thinking about it, but no need to pull the trigger yet unless there's limited availability on Saturday flights

Yeah I full expect some taint in central NC from that at this point but I will be happy with a warning level snow even if that does occur.

12z EPS has effectively shunted all the IP/ZR risk south of I-66/US 50.

Really beautiful look on the euro. That’s just a huge area of cold powder and my gut says that it’ll probably adjust a bit further north towards the AI’s. Finally we may have something that gets the whole region.

Your safest bet is to leave Friday or send flowers and stay back and enjoy the snow.

I've said for years that we used to get 15-20 inch snows here every decade or so, sometimes a couple of times a decade, and that eventually we'd get another one. I can't imagine this actually comes to pass but dang, it would be one of those old school monsters.

Just awful...

Euro says OK is closed. Hey everyone!! Glad to have something to track! Has anyone seen and used these AI models? Are they good? How accurate do y'all think they are? I've been playing around with them, but the maps don't seem to match the OP or ENS. Just kinda curious your thoughts. Thanks!

Just pointing out that this setup with post-storm temperatures <10° is very much a possibility with the HP anchored to the north. This is a prolonged cold spell incoming, regardless of snowfall. Snow will only exacerbate the cold potential due to refrigeration effects. If you are in a home that takes oil or fire wood, I would start preparing to have a delivery or go restock the firewood, pellet stoves for the incoming stretch of cold. It could last a while.

Randy and Mappy: as I have done before, I will donate $100 to the board if it snows enough to shut down Metro above ground. Do you accept my offer? (+8”)

That was a disgusting run.

Eps is also further north

Overnight lows in the single digits here at KLIN, with daily highs for the weekend in the low to mid teens. Seems the big storm that I have been hearing about misses this area completely.

Haha, well, two minds with but a single thought! I'm also a bit skeptical still about the AI models, maybe because it's such a potentially huge event. But they have proven their worth in the past year or so and (as other mets have said) they do offer solid guidance for the "overall" pattern look, precip shield, that sort of thing. Maybe not specifics like banding or small-scale features, but those are ironed out with mesoscale models. I do like that the AIs have been hammering this consistently. ETA: Regardless, I'm starting to be a bit more confident that we get some kind of warning-level cold powder at least, even if it's not the crazy amounts.

Lol amazing. The Great Snow of 1717! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Snow_of_1717