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Good call for NHC. Center is too broad at this time for a classification and plane hasn’t found any winds over 20 mph but the organization trend warrants PTC. Not far off but also not there yet

4.19 up the road at Cumberland farms

The dates are cropped off his map, which is bad practice at a minimum. June was near normal with an area of cool anomalies in the Nepal/Tibet region. July was mainly warmer than normal. Here are the maps for June and July from Copernicus: June: July: The region saw extreme heat during August 10-15, 2026. Kathmandu reached 32.3C (90.1F) on August 11, setting a daily record. Nepal's Department of Hydrology and Meteorology also reported that the mercury soared to 38.5C (101.3F) at Janakpur on August 13 and 37.5C (99.5F) at Lahan on August 15. Whether or not this round of heat was critical to destabilizing things remains to be seen. Finally, Nepal has been warming dramatically in recent years.

PTC 5 initial advisory coming at 11am.

and alot of model busting on placement of rains etc

looks like Southern CA could get a hurricane.. GFS has been leading on that one.. Euro also trending that way now

we are lucky that Springfield has a petroleum pipeline and terminals to help keep our prices lower than other areas in New England

this winter could suck.. or we could get lucky and with added moisture get some big storms

Chevon's share price up 2+% on the day, will be interesting to see who was buying shares of the majors before this latest Congressionally unauthorized military attack in the Middle East grifters gonna grift

cold enough where it wont be shitty to go outside

Yeah the other day we were at $4.29-4:39 but we also seem to have a bit of a tourist markup between Waterbury I-89 and Stowe.

This is going to be a very annoying week I fear. Lots of rain/storm chances but hard to pinpoint timing

Here's a not-so-novel aspect about ice vs water: when water freezes its volume necessarily expands by 12% to make room for the H20 molecules arranging geometrically into their crystalline position/lattice. That lattice then requires more space in order to achieve this hexagonal configuration among the handshaking molecules. etc... What may or may not be more novel is the application of this basic principle as partial triggering mechanism. If the combination of CC and summer sun have been periodically thawing and refreezing the glacial mass over and over again (decadal), the interstitial integrity of glacial body may have cracked. Fracturing over recent years. Basically we're just describing the glacial destabilization near it's front edge and the pooling of near freezing water and seepage that goes on with the retreating. It's a complex system, but at the end of the day, epistemic awareness ... We can either spend 20 years formulating a high degree confidence polynomial mathematical expression that describes a system to within 99% certainty, proving what we already know, or, we just have to accept that expanding and contracting the ice through these processes will weaken it over time. This both increases calving events, in turn increasing the probability for this to have occurred. Increasing glacial melt --> filling glacial lakes and kettle geological features --> upstream calving then careens forth and there we go

That is some environment that will be evolving just west of CT tomorrow afternoon and probably into western CT late afternoon/early evening. Guidance isn't showing a ton developing, forcing isn't particularly strong and looking at several soundings, the LFC is quite a bit higher than the LCL. With this said, that promotes an environment for discrete storms and any storms that fire in the afternoon could be particularly nasty. Probably not strong enough llvl shear for a strong tornado but not out of the question should a supercell become mature enough, especially when considering potential for boundary interactions

Yes. Your area, parts of the Mid-Atlantic, etc., will see excessive heat. Try to stay cool.

Crazy variance across the state in rainfall totals this month

Thanks. Please elaborate. I’m not sure I’m following what you’re asking.

Amazing what 40 kts of shear will do to ya. “Dolly” has passed through the wall of doom and entered a more favorable environment but not much left. Models have backed off again. If something were to happen I’d expect some steady flare up north of the islands today but odds of redevelopment are low

Keep this talk up and we’re going to change Clinton, MA to LockHerUp, MA.

Through it's first 9 days the ChescoWx forecast has been closer than the NWS point and click for EN.

Is it accelerating because of GW, or is it that since it is smaller ice absorbs heat more quickly then when it was larger? I always wondered that.

Hard to tell. The core of the coldest seemed to be in the rad spots of C NH. The SLK COOP was 34°…MSS 35° Not sure what the cloud cover or wind was in upstate NY, but the N NH COOP sites were mostly 32-35°

Through it's first 9 days the ChescoWx forecast has been closer than the NWS point and click for EN.

Through it's first 9 days the ChescoWx forecast has been closer than the NWS point and click for EN.

That's relief compared to what I've been paying. Gas was $4.89 at peak in SLK this summer and I paid $4.59 there yesterday. Brutal, brutal stuff.