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The 20th would have a colder antecedent airmass, so that would be preferable over the 18th anyway. Not that we have the luxury of preferences.

12z ICON has a worse outcome than the 00z ICON for our area on Sunday but the system looks a lot more like an actual storm now. Imagine it trended better at h5 but it's the ICON so not that interested in digging in lol

Long range RGEM backing the flow a little bit before one of the weekend's short waves. I'll post another pic when the prettier maps come out.

And less than 2.75” of snow?

There certainly is a bit of a feelin of "here we go again" starting to settle in; however, IF, and it's a big if, if we can get the southern stream open up later this month, I like our chances. This is an antsy time on this forum because there's enough showing on indices to keep positive people optimistic about future chances, but we're seeing enough can-kicking right now to feed the negative folks with enough sauce to start complaining. Even over the past couple of years when we were stuck in an overall unfavorable pattern, we got enough good looks that were advertised to be coming but either never did show up or if they did, did not produce. So now when the good looks get pushed back again, the I told you so comments start flying. A few weeks ago many thought that most of January would be rocking, today's sentiment is we're looking at the last week of the month into mid February. I really do see and empathize with both sides/viewpoints. I think there's enough showing to be optimistic and I think there's been enough can-kicking that it's natural to be skeptical.

I wouldn't totally throw in the towel on the 20th yet...it's still a week out and we've seen some swings with the evolution of that shortwave digging in around that period. It's really not that far off from producing something. I would give this another 3 days or so before totally writing it off. And beyond that, with that Arctic front as advertised...there will almost certainly be some significant winter weather produced by that...we just have to hope we end up in the spot. There is no way to definitively lean one way or another right now so all we can do is assess

We all get it…we got the cold and now the moisture is hard to find. Shit happens. It’s frustrating, but we have the heart of the season coming up, so the moisture could come as the EPS is showing currently. Hope so.

I mean better hope something goes right from the 20th on, it’s precarious anyway in SNE being a gradient set up with haves and have nots.

Let’s do it! Sey-Less snow or “Sey-Mour snow than Methuen”

I caught that..thank you .

Yep, several weeks left in January.

Lmao…and if they did(which they won’t), the water would freeze before it hit the fire/ground. Epic disasters incoming.

That has been the prevailing theme however and I did give a proper wolfie caveat of “know one knows” so…

What types of systems are we seeing on the 10 day? That period of 22-26 looks good on paper, but I haven’t seen models.

i'm not liking these trends!

Well good thing we have 2.75 weeks left to the month.

Sey-Less Snow It would do wonders to lift board spirit if you did the name-change.

Our favorite day Jan 27th.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Annadel, TN 551 AM EST Tue Jan 13, 2026 Including the cities of Bristol, Johnson City, Kingsport, Knoxville, Deer Lodge, Frog Level, Greeneville, Sneedville, Mosheim, Blountville and even Petros 551 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026 ...ROAD BRINE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST JAN 17 * WHAT...BRINE TRUCKS ON THE ROAD * WHERE...ALL OF EAST TN AND PORTIONS OF SW VA AND EASTERN KY * WHEN...Until 10 PM EST JAN 17 * IMPACTS...Brine streaks on the roadways will lead to white crust on your vehicle until rain washes it away before the snow. Brine dust in the air will make breathing healthy and fun! PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. Call 1-800-NO-BRINE for more details. Be prepared for brined roads and brine trucks. Slow down and use caution while driving. If you are going outside, watch your first few steps taken on stairs, sidewalks, and driveway, you might dust up some brine.

The final week of January doesn’t look dry.

I know it's only January 13th, but each day of this winter is slowly slipping away day by day. Hopefully we can get one big snowstorm 12 inches plus before March.

Wonder when we start to see fires starting with no qpf thru months end and such cold dry windy conditions. It’s bound to start

I've been consistently saying that the tropical forcing in MJO 8-1-2 and death of La Nina will help with a more canonical Nino response into February and March.

Obviously know one knows(hehehe) what will happen for the rest of January. But it looks rather dry. I do know you can’t punt the entire month and still score a decent grade. Vibes dwindling.