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I did notice Eric says compared to normal. Whatever normal is for us anymore. I suspect he'll be backtracking within days

Agreed. These people saying that it's cold are crazy! They are likely just used to the string of extremely warm Decembers that we've had.

Yeah, I'm not ready to throw in the towel on the first day of winter & Eric has definitely been wrong before. He seems to be a little more unhinged this year.

I’m just not sure why so many are doom & gloom when it’s only December 21st. Many act like December is supposed to be a snowy month. Webb along with others I believe overthink forecasting. It will be interesting how it changes with AI taking over a lot of the forecasting.

Keep in mind, a lot of what Webb talks about is in regards to how things will affect areas East of the Apps. For me, I'm certain that the Aleutian high will break down, they all do. Where we go when it does, I don't know.

Webb is knowledgeable but changes his mind all the time. He’s more negative than he is positive. Seems many on other forums cancel winter before it’s even begun.

Goodbye La Nina?

Gotcha. It's a bit confusing as that's opposite of how they present their probability maps where the lower number is "90% chances of seeing that amount" and the higher number is "10% chances of seeing that amount"

Fair

I must point out the irony that today is the first official day of winter and the 7am snow depth has fallen to 0 at DTW for the first time since 7am November 29.

I respect the knowledge base for sure. Just not always the way its conveyed or responded to when counters are presented. Either way, I believe it's wise we maintain a diverse portfolio of follows this time of year. Lot of credible voices out there, not all are doom and gloom on this first day of winter.

They have it right. 25th percentile would mean a 75% chance of seeing more snow than that amount.

Days starting to get longer.

One of the rare times I agree with you. Its actually incredible how the Euro and its ensembles used to be "king" and how they have regressed so much.

Below are my obs from Thorndale in December 1998 and from the Coatesville 2W NWS observer. Not too much snow but just enough for the White Christmas

I have been scrolling to find a solid post to pin my hat to. This is better than most and also applies to Eric Webb.

Yesterday's weeklies were the warmest and they corrected cooler again today. The weeklies past 2 weeks, if they are correct, are like the old "broken clock is right twice a day" saying.

That's actually a time frame I've been keeping my eye on. Call it more of a gut instinct since my skills are lacking compared to many here

Reading this more closely, I think how they wrote it incorrectly.......the the 25th percentile should say "higher number".

This may have already been clarified.......if not, GYX provides the methodology for the 'range map'.

All the models should be taken with a grain of salt in the long range.

Obviously the EPS is totally lost. If it’s flip flopping that bad run to run in the long range, it’s not even worth taking it seriously right now no matter what it shows. The EPS and op EURO is definitely not what it used to be and the “updates” from a few years ago ruined it, it’s had some really abysmal failures the last few years

Was supposed to be sunny and 65 today. Raining most of the day with a high of 52. Wth happened??

You have snowpack? My yard right now

PWM is off to a nice start on Tuesday. Tuesday Snow likely, mainly after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Tuesday Night Snow. Low around 21. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Wednesday A 40 percent chance of snow showers before noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 33.