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Definitely a 495 look. Which is not a surprise on 12/2.
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Nov 28-30th Post Turkey Day Wintry Potential
Baum replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Pretty much expected: ALTHOUGH, WE ARE NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON WHAT THE EURO GUIDANCE IS SHOWING, AS IT IS LARGELY AN OUTLIER. THE GFS/GEFS AND THE CANADIAN SUITE OF GUIDANCE ARE NOT AS HIGH WITH TOTALS, BUT STILL BRING IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL. QC -
We’re due for another good old classic 495 storm. The high is actually starting in a decent spot at the onset. It retreats but even coast might get a good front ender if that antecedent airmass is good.
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Just an op run but 18z GFS is a much better H5 look for frozen on the 6th for the corridor and points east for early Dec. At the surface- broad area of HP to the north, instead of a High sliding off the NE coast for the Dec 2-3 storm. All subject to change ofc.
- Yesterday
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Nov 28-30th Post Turkey Day Wintry Potential
homedis replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Seems more reasonable tbh, track still looks good & I’d be very happy with a widespread 6-8”. -
H7is by dendrite. Definitely more SWFE looking aloft.
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Pouring
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Those were some warning criteria winds today. Several locations well over 55mph multiple times. Cedar Rapids hit 64mph, Iowa City hit 63mph. MLI/DVN hit 57/56mph.
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Nov 28-30th Post Turkey Day Wintry Potential
cyclone77 replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Guessing the cat is the Euro. -
December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread
moneypitmike replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
Where's Prismshine? -
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Well Randy u might wanna cross ur fingers bro just in case..... And a prayer wouldn't hurt lol
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December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread
Baroclinic Zone replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
Lots to sort out. Wave that pushes through around the 1st is key. What does that do to baroclinic zone. 2nd is intensity of the trailing shortwave and how quickly that intensifies. Could still be a sheared out mess or amped up inland. we watch. We baste the turkey. We come back Friday. -
Having one now. Bourbon + a little Fireball.
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Not bad at all considers is 6 days out
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Need to be inland
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And 12Z Euro was washed out south. As the models turn
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Precip predictions
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The "Worlds Most Consistent Model" with a 200 mile jump to the NW. Anyway I love the changes I'm seeing on the 18z suite so far, certainly feeling more optimistic about next week's threat compared to yesterday.
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18z euro a hair too far north.
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We track. That would slide ENE.
