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  2. WinstonSalemArlington
    It’s neat that we instantly have gone from a weather regime wherein highs in the 80s predominated to one wherein highs in the 60s
  3. snowman19
    I’m not arguing, just giving my opinion. IMO that *relatively* “warm” water east of Japan isn’t going to matter as far as forcing anything, the record Nino is going to totally overwhelm it. Those “warm” North PAC waters are nowhere near as warm as the nearly 90F water in Nino region 3.4. It’s not even going to hold a candle to it and the Nino forcing is going to dominate….the latent and sensible heat release to the atmosphere isn’t comparable between the two
  4. LakePaste25
    That’s not to say convection won’t be west of the 30C warm pool at times (i explained this a couple days ago), but i wouldn’t declare victory for winter because models aren’t showing convection maxing in 1+2, where it doesn’t really max out there to begin with.
  5. LakePaste25
    Convection doesn’t really max out in Nino 1+2, ever. If the center of convection did, we would be talking the most east based event physically possible, rather *just* the most east based event on record.
  6. CoastalWx
    Euro ai shows some light rain possibly later this week and windy on the coast, but that’s likely the extent of it. Doesn’t seem too interesting here.
  7. Maestrobjwa
    I mean we oughta know what the deal is. But I don't get why some here just can't accept somebody saying it won't snow or will be very difficult to. Soon as you say it probably won't snow *WEENIE* It feels like the same psychology as those sports fans who don't wanna hear/can't handle criticism of their team even when it is 100% true. I guess it's a "positive thoughts only!!!" kind of thing. But anyway...we all know what the deal is. Strongest niño on record, most east-based on record. I mean those are facts. A futility winter of less than 5" is very possible...but it's not like we haven't been through it twice this decade so l mean, lol Also a small possibility maybe a big storm pops but absolutely nothing to put your hat on in that regard but pure luck/timing. I mean again, these are facts, no?
  8. Keith Central PA
    No doubt it will be warmer in December but a resonable + 5 like 82 and 97( which means it could snow)..to a 2015 December +12 gives you no chance
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm going to pose this question again...which is rhetorical for me because I know the answer...identify the bonafide El Niño events with no MC forcing and a very warm Kuroshio current east of Japan.
  10. vortex95
    Sometimes the tightness/RI *saves* and area from a bigger hit. Melissa over Jamaica was similar. If Melissa had be a long-tracked Cabo Verde, it would have been much larger when striking Jamaica. Sure, it may not have been as intense since multiple ERCs would preclude its sub-900 mb intensity, but a large Cat 4 impacting the entire island vs. only 1/3 of the islands getting Cat 3+ winds is not the same. Also, the wrn 1/3 of Jamaica is significantly less populated, and one of its main airports went largely unscathed, and the other being on the N coast on the wrn side of the island had sig less impact than if it were on the S side. Compare to Gilbert at cat 3 in Sep 1988 that cut down the full length of the Jamaica E-W w/ the entire land devastated. 80% of home lost their roofs. At least w/ Melissa on about 1/2 of the island, one could find relief, relatively speaking, short-term before full aid arrived and was distributed.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I ditched the MC idea over the summer...he misunderstood my post...in fact, the dearth of MC contribution is in integral part of my final thesis.
  12. ThePhotoGuy
    A balmy 43 for the low.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    It also extends further west...it's just more expansive and intense.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    No issue with that....December should be similar.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'v been saying that, but it either gets ignored, or someone will suggest that it's wrong.
  16. kdxken
    No thanks. Today's perfect. As many as we can get please.
  17. soadforecasterx
    Loving your results. I recorded a low of 38.3. Pretty spoton to what you have posted. Honestly was a little let down I only got down to 38.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Did you read my post? I said, "then eliminate the ones with MC contribution".
  19. CoastalWx
    It’s a nothing burger
  20. EastCoast NPZ
    Nearest PWS says overnight low of 31F. Pretty heavy frost when I got up.
  21. gallopinggertie
    Don’t worry guys, past mass extinction events were caused by much less sudden warming than what Earth is currently experiencing but it’s totally fine because I found a neat graph about coral. https://www.barrierreef.org/the-reef/threats/climate-change
  22. donsutherland1
    The latest guidance continues to portray a November quite similar to a composite for the last two strong El Niño events (2015 and 2023). Long-range guidance has low skill, especially beyond two weeks. However, subseasonal model skill might be somewhat higher than usual due to strong ENSO influence. The most recent CFSv2 forecasts also feature a reasonably similar solution for November.
  23. bristolri_wx
    To quote Glenn Frey, “The Heat is On” - 34 earlier this morning as the low.
  24. WEATHER53
    36 for low in White Oak and 32 Frederick
  25. PhiEaglesfan712
    I think the record warmth will be in the early part of November, like the other even years this decade (2020, 2022, and 2024).
  26. SnoSki14
    I wonder if the drought out in plains and west is causing a feedback loop too.
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