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This is a good post imho and mirrors my general thinking:

I've noted the two pulse -EPO behavior in the ensembles. The operation Euro is an amplified outlier with the warm-roll back in between those episodes/-EPO bursts. I'm not inclined to believe is necessarily correct. The other aspect I'd keep in mind that the models tend to go a bit too amplified in the mid spatial event. Not sure that dependent bias expresses as coherently at hemispheric scale ... just something to keep an eye on.

can pretty easily see the N ATL trough feeding back on the Scandi ridge, which then increases heights in the NAO region... this elongates and presses the TPV south

Let's really, really hope the PAC plays out and evolves like that. But even if it doesn't...if it can at least evolve to a degree where we can continue to further develop that later in the month...that would be a big change. I also wouldn't mind maintaining a stronger SE ridge...coastal peeps may not want that and of course that could be playing Russian Roulette but that would at least help with an active storm track with ejecting shortwaves from the southwest...then we just hope for a perfect trough axis to our west.

the EPS is just a day or two slower. it gets to the same point with a -NAO developing thanks to Scandi ridging (which is typical of SSW events)

really liking the progression on all the ensembles as we head into the first week of Dec initial equatorward jet extension -> T-day trough establishes cold along with building -EPO/-WPO trough moves into the N ATL and increases Scandi ridging -> second trough dumps cold into the West and Canada second jet extension pushes cold east -> N ATL trough strengthens and starts pushing Scandi ridging into the NAO region

really liking the progression on all the ensembles as we head into the first week of Dec initial equatorward jet extension -> T-day trough establishes cold along with building -EPO/-WPO trough moves into the N ATL and increases Scandi ridging -> second trough dumps cold into the West and Canada second jet extension pushes cold east -> N ATL trough strengthens and starts pushing Scandi ridging into the NAO region

really liking the progression on all the ensembles as we head into the first week of Dec initial equatorward jet extension -> T-day trough establishes cold along with building -EPO/-WPO trough moves into the N ATL and increases Scandi ridging -> second trough dumps cold into the West and Canada second jet extension pushes cold east -> N ATL trough strengthens and starts pushing Scandi ridging into the NAO region

12Z ensemble means at H5 just after the cold shot at the end of Nov: GEFS: EPS: more amplified including much stronger SE ridge than GEFS: We’ll see which verifies more closely. Lately, cold has had the edge.

I'm glad PennDOT was on the ball somewhere because 453 from Water Street to Tyrone was pure, unadulterated ass this morning.

Yup...we briefly get a shot of cold air behind the post Thanksgiving time frame and then pup heights right back up ahead of the next system. But hopefully we really do start changing things after that front later in the first week of December. Praying we really do start building heights and ridging into the West so we stop with this building heights ahead of systems, then getting a shot of cold air, only to build heights up as the next trough digging into the west translates east. If we can sustained riding in the west...we won't have to completely worry about that...especially if we can then get some Arctic support on our side.

Didn't this happen in one minute via a Chinook?

Records: Highs: EWR: 70 (1957) NYC: 72 (1921) LGA: 70 (1953) JFK: 64 (1994) Lows: EWR: 19 (1936) NYC: 18 (1936) LGA: 22 (2014) JFK: 23 (2014) Historical: 1921 - The Columbia Gorge ice storm finally came to an end. In Oregon, 54 inches of snow, sleet and glaze blocked the Columbia River Highway at the Dalles. Apart from traffic on the river itself, all transportation between Walla Walla WA and Portland OR came to a halt. Nine trains were stopped as railroads were blocked for several days. (David Ludlum) 1930: A rare, estimated F4 tornado struck the town of Bethany, Oklahoma. Between 9:30 am and 9:58 am CST, it moved north-northeast from 3 miles west of the Oklahoma City limits, and hit the eastern part of Bethany. About 110 homes and 700 other buildings, or about a fourth of the town, were damaged or destroyed. Near the end of the damage path, 3.5 miles northeast of Wiley Post Airfield, the tornado hit the Camel Creek School. Buildings blew apart just as the students were falling to the floor and looking for shelter, and five students and a teacher were killed. A total of 23 people were killed and another 150 injured, with 77 being seriously injured. Damage estimates were listed at $500,000. 1957 - Nineteen inches of snow covered the ground at Cresco, IA, a record November snow depth for the state. (The Weather Channel) 1981 - An unusually early snowstorm struck the Twin Cities of Minnesota, with as much as a foot of snow reported. The weight of the heavy snow caused the newly inflated fabric dome of the Hubert Humphrey Metrodome in downtown Minneapolis to collapse and rip. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - A sharp cold front pushed across the Great Lakes Region and the Mississippi Valley. Northwest winds gusting to 50 mph in Iowa caused some property damage around Ottumwa, and wind chill readings reached 16 degrees below zero at Hibbing MN. Showers and thunder- storms over Florida produced 5.80 inches of rain in six hours at Cocoa Beach. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Strong thunderstorms developed during the mid morning hours and produced severe weather across eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley into the wee hours of the night. Thunderstorms spawned twenty-one tornadoes, including thirteen in Mississippi. One tornado killed two persons and injured eleven others at Nettleton MS, and another tornado injured eight persons at Tuscaloosa AL. Thunderstorms produced baseball size hail in east Texas and northern Louisiana, and Summit MS was deluged with six inches of rain in four hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Gale force winds continued to produce squalls in the Lower Great Lakes Region early in the day. Snowfall totals in western New York State reached 24 inches in southern Lewis County, with 21 inches reported at Highmarket. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed across the Northern and Central Plains Region. Eight cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Denver CO with a reading of 79 degrees. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 2003 - Flooding affected the central Appalachians and Eastern Seaboard, with some isolated 8-inch rainfall totals across mountainous areas. There were 11 deaths caused by flooding in the region (Associated Press).

Pattern changes are often rushed on guidance. That’s just typical? Especially -EPO driven changes. I have been posting (along with lots of better Mets) that guidance has been overdoing mid-long range warmth for us for months now. And I personally don’t want our peak pattern on December 1. Our average high is like 52 still! I’m vey good with Thanksgiving through December 10-15 being a transitional period that builds up cold air and snowcover in our source regions.

EPS unleashing some cold

46 / 39 cloudy - should start to clear out in later this pm. https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES19/ABI/SECTOR/eus/02/GOES19-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

Not this year. Things are looking quite different.

I need to talk about leaf-blowing. Loud, incessant, gas-powered, leaf-blowing. Weekends and holidays filled with leaf-blowing. It is fine to leaf blow your property. Of course! It's a free country yadda yadda. But please for the love of god don't make leaf-blowing your hobby/passion/addiction/creative outlet/meditation practice. I know, it's so satisfying. But please. There's no need to remove every single leaf. Nor to form artistic piles. Flame me if you will TYVM!

Euro with the 582dm heights into WV/MD and 576 to the NY/PA borer to kick off December. That would be some impressive warmth ahead of the cold front into the mi-Atlantic and parts of the Northeast (unless there happens to be any wedging).

Four years of control is a lot to give up. I know Santander was hurt most of last season... but we would not need O'Neil or Ward if we just kept him.

Stein is a dork, and Julia Childs was drunk most of the time.

Thanks Don, I see your point about the unpredictability of upcoming NE snow. Moreover, this thread isn’t strictly about NE snow (as you know). It’s of course also about NE and other areas’ temperatures, wintry precip in other areas, and many other things. Wintry precip, which is usually more variable/localized than the cold influence of Arctic airmasses, is thus often less predictable than temperatures. Therefore, regarding the potential lagged effects of an SSWE, I’m guessing that temperatures in the NE US as well as for other areas for whatever period would be less unpredictable than snowfall. From what I’ve learned, there’s a significantly better chance than normal for a multi week long period of cold domination in the E US usually starting 2-3+ weeks after an SSW. More often than not the cold will appear in the E US. Most likely that would naturally mean increased wintry precip in parts of the E US, but where is the question? Especially if there’s a decent sized sample, I do like to look back at specific cities’ stats (temps and wintry precip) to give me some idea of the potential, regardless.

Oh Stein https://x.com/growingwisdom/status/1991182664204718283?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

After the last couple years, I'm not believing any epic pattern 10+ days out stuff until its slapping me in the face with stinging cold snow.

I would rather have a source of cold air, than hoping for the exact right setup...