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Gfs isn’t going to do it. Hope it’s just being stubborn but with the ai going a bit south you wonder. I don’t really ever consider the icon but it was in the no go camp and I’d argue the 18z rgem was as well.

It’s funny that an amped solution probably helps us in WNC/foothills get to “fantasy” big numbers (12-18”) but puts us more at risk of temps being an issue. Suppression scared me more as it’s just been an issue for the last 3 years. Can we still get suppressed and a big storm?

GFS showing snow starting Friday .

oh yeah

It’s really shifting south today. Hopefully trend stops

The SW low is in exactly the same spot as the 12z GFS.

The meltdown is about to occur.

Can't see how the GFS does the right thing so far...

uh oh

Wound up with 3. So 7.5 for the weekend if I'm doing my math right. It was a lot easier to clear up here than in Mattapoisett!

I saw that, too, but thought it was an older source. It should be easier to find this kind of info, lol.

Yeah looking at the H5 maps on the GFS I really do not seen any noticeable changes through 96

Baja sw still ejects but the northern stream doesn’t dig as far west and scoots east to beat down heights out front.

I was in 10th grade for the incredible February 2010 and genuinely one of the biggest regrets of my life to this point was not capturing enough memories from it. I have no pictures. Even 2016 to a certain extent. I have a few pictures from that, but nothing compared to what I’d have now if an event like that happened. About 6 years ago I started a weather journal where I write every little detail from events I’d like to remember later in my life. I also take an obnoxious amount of pictures and videos whenever there’s any winter event. Unfortunately we haven’t had any to write home about since I started that, but I will not miss the mark the next opportunity we get!

Well I agree with you. They’re betting on an amped solution that plows into the high (unlikely). I think if anything, bet the streak. The streak being suppression.

My post was actually discussing it, why is there nothing to discuss?.

It still moves the SW energy east so I'm okay with it existing for now. Just need to get that piece east to get a storm... speaking of which so far the GFS is not seeming too enthused.

Snow in Virginia Friday morning on the GFS?

NashSevere never goes against OHX,you practically never have any discrepancy between the two

Were Feb. 2010 and January 2016 easier patterns to produce huge storms? Did the guidance ever waver for those two?

18z aigfs now looks more like the 12z euro

Yeah a bit north/weaker HP on the GFS so far

Yeah, I think it helps us not worry too much about suppression as that needs both phases to go perfectly. As of now we just need to pray the first one can work to some extent (or it gets kicked east on its own thanks to some other thing) if it doesn't I don't have high hopes.

18z aigfs is a pretty big jump south. Still gets a decent swath of snow into DC but weenies won't be as happy. Max qpf stripe in NC this run

AI GFS shifted way south