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The euro family of models will win this time. Gfs and cmc familias will eventually slide se.

A buddy of mine moves dirt for a living and he painted one of his excavators….. .

NAM also crap

That is crazy they cannot possibly let people ski in weather like that I mean you could easily get disoriented and lost in that kind of snow.

oh ok. Thought it the other way around. i figured you stat guys could keep me straight.

Up to 32° here after a tenth of snow. Overcast now. Very jelly of those with 40s.

Could be totally wrong on this and just guessing what you are saying, but i feel like we have said that a lot this year with certain storms and they haven't trended NW, probably wrong on my part

At least DT is always calm and measured in his thoughts...great spelling to boot!!

The Euro seemed to have zero ridging behind the Fri/Saturday system, so everything slides ENE. It did look kind strange, being so flat and no other model is showing that. The CMC has a good amount of ridging, helping to amplify it much closer to the coast. The AIFS was somewhere in between. The 12z GEFS were actually pretty flat too. Eh, we'll know a lot more where things are trending 24 hours from now

From this vantage point IMHO this is where you want the GEFS to be....

NAM looks south thru 24 .. what a terrible performance by guidance leading up to go time

I never thought it would be a MA storm, and that's probably is a good thing for NYC and PHL. If this turns out to be a MA storm, then NYC and PHL will get close to nothing.

more than 6 hours? That's a shame since it's their #1 I can def fix that 18 in Marshfield if you think it's too low. Their final PNS on Feb 19th has Marshfield 18" there is no times next to the numbers so its assumed everything is final, doesn't mean it still can't be wrong

Commish is wise

“Hey, let’s smack the shit out of that hornets nest over there. Now run!!!!”

I've been so busy I didn't see the models yet and just saw that post first and was like damn that deescalated quickly..

You could be exactly right! As you say, "we shall see"

Wouldn’t be using that model for this . It started out as a torch . I think HFD to Hunch is snow zone

we nape, we melt.

The sun angle is doing work this week. There is a bare spot in my yard, first actual grass I’ve seen in about a month. Snowpack is now dwindling by about an inch or two per day.

If only the Canadian Parallel wasn't the Canadian Parallel

Let’s see what the NAM does

43 with the sun out. Nape and melt underway

12z mostly sweet suite - onto 18z

My take on all the models is they all have their strengths and weaknesses - so I prefer using NBM (National Blend of Models)