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Climate change isn't the main driver. https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/china-energy-transition-review-2025/

Unlike last year when we were in a +AAM regime, this year we are and have been in a strong -AAM, so definitely much more Niña like in that respect

The forecast here for the next 7 days looks like San Diego. Mostly sunny with a high around 80.

To my surprise (not surprised) it has rained all night here. Steady rain, sometimes heavy. I'd estimate another half inch at least. When does the dry spell start lol

Another UKMET run (0Z) with an MDR TS headed for an early recurve:NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURSFORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 11.2N 26.1WLEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------0000UTC 14.09.2025 72 11.7N 26.9W 1009 281200UTC 14.09.2025 84 13.1N 30.4W 1008 300000UTC 15.09.2025 96 13.2N 32.8W 1007 301200UTC 15.09.2025 108 14.4N 35.6W 1006 310000UTC 16.09.2025 120 15.7N 37.7W 1005 351200UTC 16.09.2025 132 16.8N 39.8W 1004 410000UTC 17.09.2025 144 18.8N 40.8W 1003 451200UTC 17.09.2025 156 19.9N 42.2W 1002 440000UTC 18.09.2025 168 21.1N 43.3W 1002 46

69 for the high

I love to see an argument on this page- don't think I've seen one in a long time, maybe ever! The New England forum has them like hourly.

It has been a great week to work outside! 70° today in Micaville. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk

Did it happen to be somewhat of a squall event type thing? I have images of a snow squall chase on the 21st of November, but that’s down on a mountaintop near Blacksburg, VA.

September? Man, you must’ve taken a time Machine about 3 months into the future! Plenty more days of cool, misty and melting snowflakes lie ahead.

Had a high of 72 with a current temp of 56. This week has been pure bliss weather wise.

I'm not looking forward to the upcoming heat and continued extreme dryness. I may have to run the sprinkler because the lawn is turning brown, which I would never have thought might happen a month ago when everything was wet and lush. The weather has been generally pleasant, but the combination of the US pattern and the dead tropics continues to be incredibly boring.

Leave it to Spartman to declare summer cancel. Dayton expected 85-90 for the next seven days. A couple of those 89-90’s may be too low

Today, Islip recorded its third consecutive high of 74° and Central Park saw its third consecutive high of 73°. The last time both locations had three consecutive days with the same high simultaneously was during July 6-8, 2000 when both locations had three consecutive highs of 79°. Tomorrow will be briefly warmer with highs in the upper 70s to perhaps lower 80s. A few locations could see a shower or thundershower tomorrow night into Friday as a cold front pushes through. The next round of showers or rainfall could be Monday. September 1-15 is on track to achieve a solid cool anomaly. Since 2000, there have been nine years that saw a cooler than normal first half of September. Two-thirds of those years went on to record a warmer than normal second half of September. Only two of those years (2017 and 2019) wound up with a monthly mean temperature of 70.0° or above. Overall, for two-thirds of those years, the cool start was sufficiently cool to produce a cooler than normal monthly anomaly. The last year that saw both a cooler than normal first half and second half of September was 2009. Prior to that, it was 2001. The last year to record a cooler than normal first half of September followed by a warmer than normal September was 2024. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around August 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C. La Niña conditions will likely develop during mid- or late-autumn. The SOI was -5.70 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.415 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 59% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.4° (0.8° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.4° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

If a Miller A with 30" streaks happens and pier 32 isn't playing in the background then is it even really a big dog?

The only wild card this winter appears to be if we get help from the EPO or PNA. Otherwise it's probably best to temper expectations.

Did he do a good job?

Bone dry out here. High of 74...came back from two nights at the MGM and grasses are tinder dry and brown, especially in western VA and WV. Even saw a decent size fire in the hinterlands of WV as I was coming up the grade on 48. Hope we get some decent rain before/during leaf drop.

Saw my first wooly caterpillar mowing the backyard today.

Yeah 13-14 has some things going for it. 14-15 was a Nino. Neither had the water near Japan as boiling as it is this year however.

High of 77 today but dew points climbed into the low 70's today. Thankfully clouds hung tight

The last 2 Euro Weeklies runs, though not getting back to very active levels like they had for late this month at least as of yet, have suggested 9/22-28 to be the most active week ACEwise of the upcoming weeks with 9/29-10/4 being the 2nd most active.

The next week+ looks like almost an exact repeat of last September's consecutive 80s streak, with maybe just slightly less intensity. Will be interesting to see how many consecutive 80s we have, which after today's date is more and more impressive the later we get into the month. And how much we recover the anomalies for the month. We bottomed out around -9 a couple days ago, so we'll see if we get close to or above average for anomalies after this stretch.