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That’s going to slow down a lot next week

I’d say 10 days ahead minimum

Why does the PDO fluctuate more in a new climate though? Just because it happened once, and everything is getting warmer every day? It seems like you are looking at the '13-15 PDO period as strong in between strong -PDO periods, and saying "well since that happened it must be because of global warming". I don't think so. Global warming should be associated with a slowing of the pattern, leading to more stagnation, or persistent areas of high pressure. I think the windy/low pressure pattern that the Northern Hemisphere has been in since the Winter is anti-global warming (But that doesn't mean it's not going to keep warming).

Agreed, you can start seeing signs of that type of pattern setting on guidance

Oaks already getting leaves and can see those dongs ready to fall off soon. Seems a week ahead like woodyard man said.

And it will be spread over a few days so it will soak in gradually. I'd be very happy with 2" of rainfall spread over 3-4 days.

It's a week or more earlier this year. Lilacs usually aren't out yet but they're full bloom now.

I agree with you, and I see the Euro has backed off from the huge amounts and is now more in line with the other models. Most of the area is probably looking at a 2 to 4 inch rainfall for the period, which is good. We could use a big soaking.

2017-2018 was my last above average snowfall season due to a record March. 7 conecutive stinkers since.

After this nasty stretch hopefully we have a nice May

Extended looks wonderful here from a temperature perspective. We could use some precipitation. 5.48” since January 1st and daily averages are rising quickly.

Almost done with my recap of last season and how I did...will post it in the other thread when I finish within the next week or so. Not perfect by any stretch, but much better than last year.

I am with you, but just trying to keep an open mind. He did makes some valid points regarding ENSO in a warming climate that while I was initially skeptical of, I ended up capitulating to. He is a very night guy, but no one bats .1000.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/ -1.12 as of March..highest its been since August 2021.

The PDO assumed a more negative tendency right on cue with the periodicty with which it has always switched phases. There have always been ENSO induced deviations from the longer term tendency. I don't know....either everyone else on this forum is a moron, Chris is just a giant brain in a glass jar like Krang on Ninja Turtles bag in the day. Shredddoooorrrr...the Hadley Cell is sinkinngggg!!!"

Very average day

the weathafella rule usually wins out ; don't expect consistent summer weather until Fathers Day. spring will be spring, which doesn't mean we haven't had, or won't have several nice days mixed in.

AKA agenda.

Ah spring! Monday through Thursday: 500mb low over the southern Great Lakes region slowly moves northeast this coming week as ridging builds across the center of the county. This upper-level pattern and VORT maxes rotating about the mid-level low continues the unsettled and rainy conditions into next week, have opt`d to keep NBM POPs through next week as rain remains possible though confidence in exact timing is low.

Eh, you'll probably salvage some decent weather (at times) tomorrow and over the weekend, with mild temps. Then it goes down the shitter inevitably after Monday-ish for 2-3 days.

Kinda chilly for May it feels like. Currently 69

My greatest fear for rainfall potential is the strength of the Atlantic Ridge over the weekend.

12z Euro: 12z GFS:

The euro is doing a pretty good job at depicting the desert of Stephens City.

Finally cashed with a nice rain, 1.06" overnight