All Activity

Another note on the warmth: today will be the 22nd day with a low of 70 or above. That is the most ever through the end of July, 12th most in an entire summer, and the most in an entire summer at the airport site with still the entirety of August to go. All of the other years with this many 70+ lows occurred with observations taken downtown.

IF NWS issues a flood watch, will start a thread. Its marginal right now but I expect more or less what WPC has posted this morning with isolated max rainfall of 6". No thread at this time.

. QPF box-and-whisker diagrams from the 00z LREF, which utilize the coarser-res ensembles (EPS/GEPS/GEFS) and not the finer- scale guidance which we`re not yet in the forecast horizon to see their output as yet, shows QPF values around 1-1.5" in the 50th percentile at sites like Hartford and at Providence, but show values potentially reaching up to 3". Pretty good signal for steadier soaking rains, supported by the ECMWF EFI/Shift-of-Tails guidance which also offers potential for an anomalous rain The ol' box-and-whisper and Shift-of-Tails. I check them every morning...

'Rest of Summer 2025 is looking good for less TX insane heat, and more convective action. Ensembles have been pretty consistent in forecasting fleeting (rather than dominant) subtropical ridging since the season began. And I don't see any reason this will change much, or to disagree with CPC's monthly outlook for August with equal chances on temps and precip in the state (instead of just outright throwing in above normal probability temp shades as usual). This weekend, and possibly even later next week or weekend is looking a bit convectively interesting with a non-tropical mid-upper level pattern developing as the flow turns North across most, if not all the central and eastern half of state due to the typical mid-upper High moving off to the west. And troughing digging further south through the Plains than usual this time of year. Which will likely push a front into the state this weekend. The AO edging into the negative phase in the coming days also supports this (as I've seen in past years). Both Euro & GFS are even starting to hone in on modest DL shear getting deeper into the state as well in more recent runs. So stronger storms are not out of the question. Especially with a +PNA phase already in place as I've seen in past years as well. Only real caveat this weekend looks to be mostly meager mid-level lapse rates around 6 (except maybe NTX). Next weekend is looking steeper further south.

Looks like we got our usual tsunameh

Wasn’t expecting yesterday to be the third 100 degree day of the year for me. Crazy

Greensboro's all time record max min is likely to be set for a single month, the lowest it has dropped was 68 degrees which would beat the old record of 67 set in 2016 and 2015 (July as well). We are only +2 on the month, I think that the lack of a break from the heat/humidity is what has made this July feel worse than the last few.

I am a little surprised the tsunami waves are so small given the size of the quake and the shallow depth.

81/76 at 3am at DCA... heat index near 90. The cool down cannot come fast enough.

If you were fat like me you wouldn't be excited about it

0Z UKMET fwiw has TCG/a TD at 168 in the far NW Bahamas: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 26.9N 78.3W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 06.08.2025 168 26.9N 78.3W 1014 27 ———— I’m getting slightly concerned with this as it’s coming from a currently active AEW that’s now in the E ATL based on what I’m seeing on the 0Z and earlier runs of the UKMET. The 0Z has this AEW move to the N Leewards vicinity at 96 and then form the TD at 168 in the far NW Bahamas. It is then recurving NNW around a strengthening Bermuda high and threatening the SE US mid to late next week with no sharp upper trough to allow a sharp enough recurve to protect the coast. I looked back and found a WNW moving distinct disturbance from this same E ATL AEW as far back as the 0Z 7/27 UKMET run.

Took this quick little shot driving through 3d cliff earlier. Talk about an intense surge of heat all around today, absolutely cranking! Love the sounds of all the crickets, frogs and little chippies scurrying about at this time. It’s like a mini tropical oasis out there, ya love to see it!

Parts of CA coast added to warning area WEAK51 PAAQ 300327 TSUAK1 BULLETIN Public Tsunami Message Number 5 NWS National Tsunami Warning Center Palmer AK 827 PM PDT Tue Jul 29 2025 UPDATES ------- * Revised alert areas ...THE TSUNAMI WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT... ...THE TSUNAMI ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT... Tsunami Warning in Effect for; * CALIFORNIA, The coast from Cape Mendocino, California to The Oregon/Cal. Border * ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, Samalga Pass, Alaska (30 miles SW of Nikolski) to Attu, Alaska including the Pribilof Islands Tsunami Advisory in Effect for; * CALIFORNIA, The coast from The Cal./Mexico Border to Cape Mendocino, California including San Francisco Bay * OREGON, The coast from The Oregon/Cal. Border to The Oregon/Wash. Border including the Columbia River estuary coast * WASHINGTON, Outer coast from the Oregon/Washington border to Slip Point, Columbia River estuary coast, and the Juan de Fuca Strait coast * BRITISH COLUMBIA, The north coast and Haida Gwaii, the central coast and northeast Vancouver Island, the outer west coast of Vancouver Island, the Juan de Fuca Strait coast * SOUTH ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA, Pacific coasts from Chignik Bay, Alaska to Unimak Pass, Alaska (80 miles NE of Unalaska) * ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, Unimak Pass, Alaska (80 miles NE of Unalaska) to Samalga Pass, Alaska (30 miles SW of Nikolski) For other US and Canadian Pacific coasts in North America, there is no tsunami threat. FORECASTS OF TSUNAMI ACTIVITY ----------------------------- * A tsunami has been generated. The first waves are forecasted to arrive at the following locations and specified times. * Forecast tsunami duration is the approximate length of time which the tsunami may produce dangerous currents and waves. * Forecast max tsunami height is the highest expected water level above the tide. * Forecasts are not provided for sites which have been impacted more than an hour prior to the time of this message. FORECAST FORECAST FORECAST START TSUNAMI MAX TSUNAMI SITE OF TSUNAMI DURATION HEIGHT ---- ---------- -------- ------------- * Alaska Saint Paul 1855 AKDT Jul 29 less than 1ft * British Columbia Langara 2205 PDT Jul 29 less than 1ft Tofino 2330 PDT Jul 29 less than 1ft * Oregon Port Orford 2335 PDT Jul 29 15 hrs 0.9- 1.7 ft Charleston 2345 PDT Jul 29 less than 1ft Brookings 2350 PDT Jul 29 9 hrs 0.8- 1.4 ft Seaside 2355 PDT Jul 29 Newport 2355 PDT Jul 29 * Washington La Push 2335 PDT Jul 29 Neah Bay 2340 PDT Jul 29 less than 1ft Long Beach 2345 PDT Jul 29 less than 1ft Westport 2350 PDT Jul 29 less than 1ft Moclips 2350 PDT Jul 29 less than 1ft Port Angeles 0015 PDT Jul 30 less than 1ft Port Townsend 0045 PDT Jul 30 less than 1ft Bellingham 0110 PDT Jul 30 less than 1ft Tacoma 0200 PDT Jul 30 * California Fort Bragg 2350 PDT Jul 29 9 hrs 0.7- 1.3 ft Crescent City 2350 PDT Jul 29 30 hrs 2.6- 4.8 ft Monterey 0015 PDT Jul 30 less than 1ft Port San Luis 0035 PDT Jul 30 24 hrs 2.0- 3.7 ft San Francisco 0040 PDT Jul 30 less than 1ft Santa Barbara 0045 PDT Jul 30 less than 1ft Los Angeles Harb 0100 PDT Jul 30 less than 1ft Newport Beach 0110 PDT Jul 30 less than 1ft La Jolla 0110 PDT Jul 30 less than 1ft Oceanside 0115 PDT Jul 30 less than 1ft OBSERVATIONS OF TSUNAMI ACTIVITY - UPDATED ------------------------------------------ * Observed max tsunami height is the highest recorded water level above the tide level up to the time of this message. TIME OBSERVED MAX SITE OF MEASUREMENT TSUNAMI HEIGHT ---------------------------- ---------------- -------------- Amchitka Alaska 0.8ft Adak Alaska 0.9ft Kushiro Japan 1.1ft Abashiri Japan 0.7ft Hanasaki Japan 1.1ft Nikolskoe Russia 1714 PDT Jul 29 0.2ft PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS --------------------------------- * Magnitude 8.8 * Origin Time 1525 AKDT Jul 29 2025 1625 PDT Jul 29 2025 2325 UTC Jul 29 2025 * Coordinates 52.2 North 160.0 East * Depth 46 miles * Location 315 miles SW of Bering I., Komandorski 80 miles SE of Petropavlovsk, Kamchatka RECOMMENDED ACTIONS ------------------- * See message number 4 for recommended actions. IMPACTS ------- * See message number 4 for possible impacts. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND NEXT UPDATE -------------------------------------- * Refer to the internet site tsunami.gov for more information. * Pacific coastal residents outside California, Oregon, Washington, British Columbia and Alaska should refer to the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center messages at tsunami.gov. * This message will be updated within 60 minutes. $$

Dew point temps up to low 70s here from 68

Can’t make it up Deleted my duplicate post.

Wow, tsunami warnings are up for most of the "Ring of Fire" around the Pacific, from a magnitude 8.8 earthquake about an hour ago off the coast of Kamchatka, Russia. It is feared that this could generate tsunami waves of up to 10 feet in parts of nearby Japan and Russia and perhaps several feet in places like Hawaii and elsewhere - even the US West Coast and Alaska are under tsunami alerts. This was a very powerful earthquake and, unfortunately, tsunami predictions aren't particularly accurate. Back in 2004, people in Indonesia certainly didn't expect the 150 foot tsunami that killed hundreds of thousands from a 9.2 magnitude earthquake; similarly in 2011, parts of Japan didn't expect tsunami waves of 50-100+ feet from a 9.0 earthquake (including at the Fukushima nuclear reactor, where 50' waves inundated and destroyed the facility, leading to partial reactor meltdowns and release of radioactivity). Hopefully people at risk are taking this seriously. https://www.ksl.com/.../87-magnitude-earthquake-in...

“Obnoxious” omg..

3 hours until the waves hit Hawajj

This weekend looks positively fantastic, I can’t wait!

Whats up with this quake and Tsunami threat in the Pacific? Seems bad!

Absolutely nuts Even in the suburbs it's still in the low 80s past 11PM

My rough estimate of ACE progged by today’s (7/29/25) Euro Weeklies: Aug 4-10: 3 Aug 11-17: 8 Aug 18-24: 11-12 Aug 25-31: 13-14 These 4 weeks would add to ~36, meaning a notably more active than active era normal for August should today’s EW verify closely. Since the active era began, only 6 Augusts (1995-6, 1998-2000, and 2004) had significantly >36 ACE, while 18 had significantly <36. That leaves 6 Augusts fairly close to 36 (say 31-41): 2005, 2007, 2010, 2012, 2021, and 2023. After those 6 Augusts, how was each Sept vs 1995-2024 climo? 2005, 2010, 2021, and 2023 were active while 2007 was inactive and 2012 was near avg. How were the Octs? 2005, 2010, and 2012 were above avg while 2021 and 2023 were near avg and 2007 was quiet. Other than hoping for another 2007, this isn’t encouraging for someone who wants an inactive season, especially considering the progged weak La Niña per RONI.

Third day in a row of MCS/severe for this four-state area around Sioux Falls, SD

When saw this around 630pm I checked radar, nada.

97.8 today. 95 at Montauk. Rare out there