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According to my records, my Cooperative Observation site (RSTM2) has never recorded a 100° air temperature. Wonder if we may it this time? I'm leaning towards a no.

Relative ENSO region anomalies are currently ~0.5 C cooler than 1991-2020 anomalies and likely ~0.6 to 0.7C cooler than 1981-2010 anomalies.

Shows me with one day in the 90’s….race day FTL.

I don’t think the overall picture would change much since the 1981-2010 climo isn’t that much different along the equator in the Pacific ENSO regions than 1991-2020 is. Also note the current SST analysis is using the same scale between this July and next June forecast. So the SSTs at least in the model are warmer worldwide including the WPAC warm pool and Atlantic along with the IO than they are today.

Clouds clearing out quicker than hair on Kevin’s head.

Warm, muggy 4th weekend with scattered boomers. As it should be.

Note that this is based on very outdated 1981-2010 climo. If instead it were using relative climo, that skinny La Niña tongue wouldn’t be as skinny since it would be compared to much more up to date warmer climo taking into account avg. warming of global tropical waters from GW. For the same reason, the surrounding tropical waters’ anomalies there wouldn’t be as warm.

The one modeled

MDT ended the month with a mean temp of 73.8 and only .73" of rain, which is good for the 3rd driest June ever. I received 1.46" in June and have 16.41" for the year. I totaled 52.41" last year.

The young core...Adley? He hasn't been good for 2 years now, and injured a lot, Gunnar's play started declining the latter part of last year he has been pretty awful this season. Mayo? Cowser? Westburg?? Good chance none of them will be on the team in 2 years. The pitching is crap. Its rebuild time dude. Trade Alonso.

Low of 62 here this morning w/ 89 in the point for today. Heat advisories have shifted south of Upper Michigan. Hopefully a storm or two can materialize this afternoon.

Even for France it was more of a jump than a gradual shift. This introduces the idea of non-linear effects. Very difficult for planners to deal with unexpected and rapid shifts. The jump which began around 2003 was around 10-12°F warmer for the June monthly average below at times than their old 1970s to 1990s climate.

What MCS?

It wont happen but Elias should be fired NOW. Why let him fuck things up more by making desperate moves before the trade deadline in an attempt to save his job? Why would ownership trust him given what a mess this team has become? This is quickly becoming a dumpster fire.

Agreed on both accounts here. I have been saying that I don't think the EMI will be particularly important this season given the magnitude of the warmth that is expected throughout the basin....should function as an intense, basin-wide event with some hints of MC competition...essentially similar to 2015-2016 in terms of sensible weather. Very warm in the mean with greater variability during the second half.

June finished here as 5th warmest and 5th driest ( 1.81" ) .

Had 0.34” early last night…just enough to keep the surface wet a couple more days.

love our lakes

Wonder how we’ll get Steined with the MCS tonight ? Probably will hit Ginx down to the cape

Yeah but you had near or over an inch Sunday

While the CanSIPS hasn’t had much skill with long range ENSO 500 mb patterns and temperatures over the CONUS, it will be interesting to see if it has some clue about the SST configuration. Notice how the much warmer the Indio-Pacific warm pool becomes following this super event than it initializes at the current time. My guess is the big baseline global temperature jump it has warms the SSTs. There is some cooling immediately near Japan. But the warm pool gets pushed a little east. Also notice how much warmer the Atlantic basin becomes. The extended CFS runs are doing something similar with the SSTs. The ENSO region would probably be the strangest look of all. Notice how skinny the developing La Niña cold tongue is by next June around the Galápagos Islands. It’s surrounded by continuing Nino-like waters just off equator.

I missed just to my north ( had sprinkles) last evening and nothing over night

72 for the low, DP 71 kind of mixed feelings about temperatures yesterday. Under my deck which is completely shaded 90 degrees. My other sensor which is partially in the sun was reading 102. The NWS said high was 91 which I’m not really sure that’s right. Stay hydrated theses next few days!

Low of 71. Let’s see how many Ben Franklins we can count the next few days. Stay cool everyone.

lol. I took two of his full webbed hands up the hiney yesterday and last night. Literally missing by 1-2 miles . And then he moved them all around while he was up in there.